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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 (` cr) 4QFY11 4QFY10 % yoy Angel est. % Diff. Revenue 4,899.4 4,315.8 13.5 4,843.4 1.2 EBITDA 579.2 531.0 9.1 575.4 0.7 OPM (%) 11.8 12.3 (48bp) 11.9 (6bp) PAT 485.5 385.7 25.9 455.1 6.7 Source: Company, Angel Research HUL posted good set of numbers for the quarter, largely in line with our estimates. The top line grew by 13.5% yoy to `4,899cr (`4,316cr). Recurring earnings for the quarter grew by 25.9% yoy, above our estimates. Other key highlights of the results include 1) 11.4% yoy revenue growth in the S&D segment (EBIT margin contracted by 525bp yoy to 7.5%), 2) food business showed 15.4% yoy growth and 3) personal products grew by 16.2% yoy, registering the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit volume-led growth. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock. Double-digit volume growth continues, profitability yet to recover: HUL posted 13.5% yoy top-line growth to `4,899cr (`4,316cr), largely driven by acceleration in volume growth to 14% yoy. Overall FMCG sales grew by 14% yoy, aided by 13.6% yoy growth in home and personal care (HPC) and 15.4% yoy growth in the foods business. At the operating level, OPM contracted by 48bp yoy on account of raw-material price inflation as gross margin contracted by 287bp yoy. In terms of earnings, HUL posted a 25.9% yoy increase to `486cr (`386cr), which was higher than our and street’s expectations. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of `284, the stock is trading at 21.3x FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock with a target price of `306 based on 23x FY2013E revised EPS of `13.3. Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Net sales 17,524 19,401 21,840 24,574 % chg (13.4) 10.7 12.6 12.5 Net profit (Adj.) 2,103 2,099 2,521 2,879 % chg (15.9) (0.2) 20.1 14.2 OPM (%) 14.5 12.2 13.4 13.9 EPS (`) 9.7 9.7 11.7 13.3 P/E (x) 28.2 26.6 24.4 21.3 P/BV (x) 23.8 19.7 17.0 15.0 RoE (%) 90.5 73.6 74.8 74.6 RoCE (%) 101.3 74.7 79.8 82.0 EV/Sales (x) 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 24.7 19.7 16.7 Source: Company, Angel Research ACCUMULATE CMP `284 Target Price `306 Investment Period 12 months Stock Info Sector FMCG Market Cap (` cr) 62,058 Beta 0.6 52 Week High / Low 329/225 Avg. Daily Volume 2,34,325 Face Value (`) 1.0 BSE Sensex 18,529 Nifty 5,551 Reuters Code HUL.BO Bloomberg Code HUVR@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 52.6 MF /Banks /Indian FIs 14.9 FII /NRIs /OCBs 17.6 Indian Public /Others 14.9 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 5.3 10.5 10.7 HUL 3.3 21.2 13.6 Chitrangda Kapur 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6822 [email protected] Sreekanth P.V.S 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6841 [email protected] HUL Performance Highlights HUL|4QFY2011 Result Update May 9, 2011
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  • Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    (` cr) 4QFY11 4QFY10 % yoy Angel est. % Diff.

    Revenue 4,899.4 4,315.8 13.5 4,843.4 1.2

    EBITDA 579.2 531.0 9.1 575.4 0.7

    OPM (%) 11.8 12.3 (48bp) 11.9 (6bp)

    PAT 485.5 385.7 25.9 455.1 6.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    HUL posted good set of numbers for the quarter, largely in line with our estimates. The top line grew by 13.5% yoy to `4,899cr (`4,316cr). Recurring earnings for the quarter grew by 25.9% yoy, above our estimates. Other key highlights of the results include 1) 11.4% yoy revenue growth in the S&D segment (EBIT margin contracted by 525bp yoy to 7.5%), 2) food business showed 15.4% yoy growth and 3) personal products grew by 16.2% yoy, registering the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit volume-led growth. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock.

    Double-digit volume growth continues, profitability yet to recover: HUL posted 13.5% yoy top-line growth to `4,899cr (`4,316cr), largely driven by acceleration in volume growth to 14% yoy. Overall FMCG sales grew by 14% yoy, aided by 13.6% yoy growth in home and personal care (HPC) and 15.4% yoy growth in the foods business. At the operating level, OPM contracted by 48bp yoy on account of raw-material price inflation as gross margin contracted by 287bp yoy. In terms of earnings, HUL posted a 25.9% yoy increase to `486cr (`386cr), which was higher than our and streets expectations.

    Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of `284, the stock is trading at 21.3x FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock with a target price of `306 based on 23x FY2013E revised EPS of `13.3. Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

    Net sales 17,524 19,401 21,840 24,574

    % chg (13.4) 10.7 12.6 12.5

    Net profit (Adj.) 2,103 2,099 2,521 2,879

    % chg (15.9) (0.2) 20.1 14.2

    OPM (%) 14.5 12.2 13.4 13.9

    EPS (`) 9.7 9.7 11.7 13.3

    P/E (x) 28.2 26.6 24.4 21.3

    P/BV (x) 23.8 19.7 17.0 15.0

    RoE (%) 90.5 73.6 74.8 74.6

    RoCE (%) 101.3 74.7 79.8 82.0

    EV/Sales (x) 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3

    EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 24.7 19.7 16.7 Source: Company, Angel Research

    ACCUMULATE CMP `284 Target Price `306

    Investment Period 12 months Stock Info

    Sector FMCG

    Market Cap (` cr) 62,058

    Beta 0.6

    52 Week High / Low 329/225

    Avg. Daily Volume 2,34,325

    Face Value (`) 1.0

    BSE Sensex 18,529

    Nifty 5,551

    Reuters Code HUL.BO

    Bloomberg Code HUVR@IN

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters

    52.6

    MF /Banks /Indian FIs

    14.9

    FII /NRIs /OCBs

    17.6

    Indian Public /Others 14.9

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex 5.3 10.5 10.7

    HUL 3.3 21.2 13.6

    Chitrangda Kapur 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6822

    [email protected]

    Sreekanth P.V.S 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6841

    [email protected]

    HUL Performance Highlights

    HUL|4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011

  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 2

    Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance

    Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY11 4QFY10 % yoy FY2011 FY2010 % chg

    Net Sales 4,899.4 4,315.8 13.5 19,401.1 17,523.8 10.7 Consumption of RM 2,658.1 2,217.5 19.9 10,056.8 8,877.9 13.3 (% of Sales) 54.3 51.4

    51.8 50.7

    Staff Costs 234.6 238.1 (1.5) 961.3 936.3 2.7 (% of Sales) 4.8 5.5

    5.0 5.3

    Advertising Expense 623.3 626.5 (0.5) 2,764.2 2,391.4 15.6 (% of Sales) 12.7 14.5

    14.2 13.6

    Other Expenses 804.1 702.6 14.4 3,253.6 2,769.7 17.5 (% of Sales) 16.4 16.3

    16.8 15.8

    Total Expenditure 4,320.1 3,784.8 14.1 17,035.9 14,975.4 13.8 Operating Profit 579.2 531.0 9.1 2,365.2 2,548.4 (7.2) OPM (%) 11.8 12.3

    12.2 14.5

    Interest 0.0 0.1 (85.7) 0.2 7.0 (96.7) Depreciation 55.6 50.3 10.6 220.8 184.0 20.0 Other Income 123.2 92.9 32.7 586.0 349.6 67.6 PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 646.8 573.5 12.8 2,730.2 2,707.1 0.9 Extr. Income/(Expense) 83.6 195.5

    206.8 111.3

    PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 730.4 769.0 (5.0) 2,937.0 2,818.4 4.2 (% of Sales) 14.9 17.8

    15.1 16.1

    Provision for Taxation 161.3 187.8 (14.1) 631.0 616.4 2.4 (% of PBT) 24.9 32.7

    23.1 22.8

    Recurring PAT 485.5 385.7 25.9 2,099.2 2,090.7 0.4 PATM (%) 9.9 8.9

    10.8 11.9

    Reported PAT 569.1 581.2 (2.1) 2,306.0 2,202.0 4.7 Equity shares (cr) 216.0 216.0

    216.0 216.0

    FDEPS (`) 2.6 2.7 (2.1) 10.7 10.2 4.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Revenue in line with estimates, led by double-digit volume growth

    HUL posted top-line growth of 13.5% yoy to `4,899cr (`4,316cr), largely driven by double-digit volume growth of 14% yoy.

    Overall FMCG sales grew by 14% yoy, aided by 13.6% yoy growth in HPC and 15.4% yoy growth in the foods business. In HPC, the soaps and detergents (S&D) segment posted 11.4% yoy growth despite price hikes and intense competition in the detergents category. In detergents, all three brands Rin, Surf and Wheel delivered double-digit volume growth. Personal products registered 16.2% yoy growth, registering the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit volume-led growth. In the foods business, all segments grew well, contributing to growth (beverages grew by 11.2% yoy, processed foods grew by 26.6% yoy and ice creams grew by 21% yoy).

  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 3

    Exhibit 2: Double-digit top-line growth continues

    Source: Company, Angel research

    Exhibit 3: Strong volume growth maintained

    Source: Company, Angel research

    Recurring earnings spike by 26% yoy despite a dip in margin

    In terms of earnings, HUL posted a 25.9% yoy increase to `486cr (`386cr) on a recurring basis, aided by a 32.7% yoy jump in other income and a 781bp yoy decrease in tax expense, impacted by margin contraction and a 10.6% yoy increase in depreciation expense to `56cr (`50cr). However, on a reported basis, HUL posted a ~2.1% yoy decline in earnings to `569cr (`581cr), aided by `84cr exceptional gain during the quarter (on account of profit on sale of property and long-term investments).

    OPM dips by 48bp due to higher input cost inflation

    At the operating level, HUL posted yet another quarter of weak performance on account of raw-material price inflation as gross margin contracted by 287bp yoy, though the decrease in ad spends (down 180bp yoy) and staff costs (down 73bp yoy) curtailed the further fall in OPM. Hence, operating margin for the quarter contracted by 48bp yoy to 11.8% (12.3%), resulting in a 9.1% yoy increase in EBITDA to `579cr (`532cr) during the quarter.

    In terms of categories, the S&D segment witnessed a 525bp yoy margin contraction due to escalated input costs; and personal products registered a margin expansion of 325bp on account of strong double-digit volume growth. Processed foods margins contracted by 65bp yoy. Beverages registered margin expansion of 181bp yoy and ice creams registered a 169bp yoy expansion, respectively.

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  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 4

    Exhibit 4: Earnings growth higher than expected

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 5: Margins remain a concern

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6: Segment-wise performance Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY11 4QFY10 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg

    Soaps and Detergents 2,205 1,978 11.4 8,792 8,266 6.4 Personal Product 1,459 1,255 16.2 5,844 5,048 15.8 Beverages 634 570 11.2 2,344 2,142 9.4 Processed Foods 250 198 26.6 903 731 23.5 Ice Creams 67 55 21.0 275 231 18.9 Exports 279 256 9.3 1,100 1,005 9.4 Others 62 64 (4.2) 438 347 26.3 Less: Inter Segment Revenue - -

    0 (4)

    Total Gross Income 4,956 4,377 13.2 19,694 17,766 10.9

    Soaps and Detergents 166 253 (34.4) 834 1,185 (29.6) Personal Products 365 273 33.6 1,495 1,297 15.3 Beverages 99 79 25.7 358 320 11.9 Processed Foods 8.4 7.9

    13 4 190.1

    Ice Creams (1) (2) (51.0) 19 13 53.3 Exports 27 13 104.3 92 59 56.3 Others (12) (19)

    (75) (72)

    Total PBIT 654 605 8.0 2,736 2,805 (2.5) Less: Interest Exp. (0) (0)

    (0) (7)

    Less: Other Unallocable Exp 77 112

    202 (36)

    PBT 730 717 1.9 2,937 2,763 6.3

    PBIT Margin (%)

    Soap and Detergent 7.5 12.8

    9.5 14.3

    Personal Product 25.0 21.8

    25.6 25.7

    Beverages 15.7 13.8 15.3 14.9 Processed Foods 3.3 4.0 1.4 0.6 Ice Creams (1.2) (2.8) 7.1 5.5 Exports 9.8 5.2 8.3 5.8 Others (18.7) (29.9) (17.1) (20.8)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    (30.0)(20.0)(10.0)-10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

    10 110 210 310 410 510 610 710

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    PAT (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

    16.1 13.2 15.4 14.4 16.0 12.3 12.5 12.0 12.4 11.8

    46.1 47.8 48.4 49.3 50.9 48.6 49.0 49.1 48.9 45.7

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  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 5

    S&D segment continued its recovery mode, margins dip further

    HULs S&D segment continued its recovery mode, registering 11.4% yoy growth with Surf, Rin and Wheel delivering double-digit volume growth in detergents and robust growth from Dove and Pears. Also, brand re-launches and new variants in soaps fuelled the segments growth. However, profitability took a hit as margins dipped by 525bp yoy primarily due to high input cost inflation.

    While we have modeled in an 8.5% CAGR in the S&D segments revenue over FY201113E, going ahead, we expect the S&D segment to post higher volume growth (aided by low base, corrective actions). Moreover, recent price hikes in select SKUs of soaps and detergents are likely to aid margin recovery in the coming quarters. A key risk to our call of recovery in the S&D segment emanates from the lack of pricing power recovery, growing market share of ITC and rising palm oil prices.

    Exhibit 7: S&D maintains impressive growth

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 8: High palm oil price impacts EBIT margin

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Personal product sales maintain double-digit volume growth

    The personal products segment registered 16.2% yoy growth, largely aided by volumes, registering the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. All skin care brands posted double-digit volume growth, with Vaseline sales doubling during the quarter. Hair care and oral care also performed well with hair care growing at a sustained double-digit volume growth rate. Toothpastes also performed well with brands such as Close up and Pepsodent showing strong growth. Hence, margins in the segment showed a 325bp yoy expansion to 25%.

    We have modeled in a 15.2% CAGR in the personal products segments revenue and flat margins for FY201113E on account higher ad spends.

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  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 6

    Exhibit 9: Eight quarters of double-digit growth

    Source: Company, Angel research

    Exhibit 10: EBIT margin expands yoy

    Source: Company, Angel research

    Processed foods and ice creams do well, beverages disappoint

    The foods segment recorded 15.4% yoy growth, driven largely by strong growth in processed foods (up 26.6% yoy) and ice creams (up 21% yoy). However, beverages registered moderate growth of 11.2% yoy as the tea and coffee market is picking up pace. Processed foods grew in strong double digits, as Kissan and Knorr showed impressive volume-led growth with new offerings such as juices, spreads and malted food.

    Investment rationale

    Brand positioning shifts from the mass market segment to the premium market segment: HUL has been very actively re-launching products from its existing

    brands and has increased the pace of new launches, targeting the mid/premium

    market segment (launched Ponds Gold Radiance and re-launched Dove and Rin

    in the personal products and S&D segments, respectively); this in our view is

    positive, considering that the company will have a better control on pricing.

    Moreover, constant innovations have helped HUL stabilise its market share

    losses. However, we retain a slight caution against ITCs commitment to

    categories such as soaps, shampoos and skin care, which may pose a major

    threat for HUL in the long run. We model in an 8.5% and 15.7% CAGR in the

    S&D and personal products segments revenue over FY201113E and expect

    margins at ~11% and ~26% for the S&D and personal products segments,

    respectively.

    Strong domestic play and robust balance sheet provide further impetus: HUL with its iconic brands has sustained its volume growth, which is impressive given

    the recent price hike and strong competitive scenario, indicating a revival in

    consumer demand and higher growth in the mid/premium-end market segment.

    Moreover, HUL is a cash-rich, zero-debt company enjoying high RoE of ~75%.

    We have modeled a recurring earnings CAGR of ~17% over FY201113E and

    expect margins to improve by 126bp yoy in FY2012E to 13.4% (as we expect

    raw-material inflation to cool down a bit with the forecast of normal monsoons),

    and a 50bp yoy improvement to 13.9% in FY2013E.

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  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 7

    Outlook and valuation

    Sustained double-digit volume growth for four consecutive quarters (albeit on a low base) and steady performance of the personal products and foods businesses were the key positive takeaways from 4QFY2011 results. We have marginally revised our numbers. Our earnings estimates have been revised upward by 12% as concerns over inflationary environment wane.

    Exhibit 11: Change in estimates

    Old estimates New estimates % chg

    (` cr) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Revenue 21,922 24,772 21,840 24,574 (0.4) (0.8) OPM (%) 13.0 13.7 13.4 13.9 49bp 24bp EPS (`) 11.3 13.2 11.7 13.3 2.9 0.8

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    We expect HUL to post a 13% CAGR in its top line over FY201113E, largely aided by steady performance of the companys personal care and foods division (aided by innovations and higher ad spends), spike in detergents volume growth and modest performance of the soaps business (aided by brand re-launches). On the earnings front, we expect HUL to post a 17.1% CAGR in terms of recurring earnings during the period, aided by higher margins (as raw-material concerns wane with the forecast of normal monsoons).

    At the CMP of `284, the stock is trading at 21.3x FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock with a target price of `306, based on 23x FY2013E revised EPS of `13.3.

  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 8

    Exhibit 12: Key assumptions FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E

    Gross top line (` cr) Soaps & Detergents 8,266 8,792 9,495 10,349 Personal Products 5,048 5,844 6,750 7,830 Beverages 2,142 2,344 2,555 2,785 Processed Foods 731 903 1,119 1,399 Ice Creams 231 275 316 363 Exports 1,005 1,100 1,210 1,337 Others 347 438 526 641 Top-line growth (%) Soaps & Detergents 1.5 6.4 8.0 9.0 Personal Products 15.6 15.8 15.5 16.0 Beverages 14.7 9.4 9.0 9.0 Processed Foods 11.3 23.5 24.0 25.0 Ice Creams 16.5 18.9 15.0 15.0 Exports (14.6) 9.4 10.0 10.5 Others 10.3 26.3 20.0 22.0 PBIT (` cr) Soaps & Detergents 1,185 834 1,139 1,242 Personal Products 1,297 1,495 1,721 1,997 Beverages 320 358 396 432 Processed Foods 4 13 34 42 Ice Creams 13 19 27 31 Exports 59 92 99 110 Others (72) (75) (58) (71) PBIT margin (%) Soaps & Detergents 14.3 9.5 12.0 12.0 Personal Products 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.5 Beverages 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.5 Processed Foods 0.6 1.4 3.0 3.0 Ice Creams 5.5 7.1 8.5 8.5 Exports 5.8 8.3 8.2 8.2 Others (20.8) (17.1) (11.0) (11.0)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 9

    Exhibit 13: Peer valuation Company Reco Mcap CMP TP* Upside P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) CAGR #

    (` cr) (`) (`) (%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Sales PAT

    Asian Paints Neutral 26,239 2,736 2,767 1.1 26.1 21.8 2.8 2.3 39.9 37.6 17.1 19.7

    Britannia Buy 4,414 370 458 23.9 25.9 17.8 0.9 0.8 35.7 44.5 14.2 17.1

    Colgate Reduce 12,226 899 837 (6.9) 26.5 23.6 4.6 4.1 100.1 87.2 13.5 11.8

    Dabur Accumulate 17,804 102 115 12.4 24.7 21.3 3.3 2.8 51.0 46.1 21.6 20.0

    GSKCHL Reduce 9,604 2,283 2,163 (5.3) 27.6 23.2 3.2 2.7 32.6 31.8 17.3 17.5

    GCPL Accumulate 12,713 393 447 13.8 22.0 19.3 3.3 2.9 35.1 26.3 13.4 17.8

    HUL Accumulate 62,058 284 306 7.6 24.4 21.3 2.6 2.3 74.8 74.6 12.5 17.1

    ITC Accumulate 142,691 184 205 11.4 24.3 21.5 5.5 4.8 31.9 30.6 13.5 14.2

    Marico Accumulate 8,063 131 140 6.6 26.5 21.5 2.4 2.1 30.8 29.0 12.0 25.7

    Nestle Reduce 39,864 4,134 3,483 (15.8) 40.9 34.4 5.4 4.7 91.1 72.9 16.1 18.9

    Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: #Denotes CAGR for FY201113E, * In case of Neutral recommendation, TP = Fair value

    Exhibit 14: Angel vs. consensus estimates Top line (` cr) FY2012E FY2013E EPS (`) FY2012E FY2013E Angel estimates 21,840 24,574 Angel estimates 11.7 13.3 Consensus 21,731 24,542 Consensus 11.2 12.8 Diff (%) 0.5 0.1 Diff (%) 4.2 4.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 15: Returns HUL vs. Sensex (Indexed to 100)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 16: One-year forward P/E band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 17: One-year forward P/E chart

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Blue line indicates 5-year average

    Exhibit 18: One-year forward premium vs. Sensex chart

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Blue line indicates 5-year average

    80%

    90%

    100%

    110%

    120%

    130%

    140%

    Apr

    -10

    May

    -10

    Jun-

    10

    Jul-

    10

    Aug

    -10

    Sep-

    10

    Oct

    -10

    Nov

    -10

    Dec

    -10

    Jan-

    11

    Feb-

    11

    Mar

    -11

    Apr

    -11

    Sensex HUL

    -

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    Apr

    -05

    Oct

    -05

    Apr

    -06

    Oct

    -06

    Apr

    -07

    Oct

    -07

    Apr

    -08

    Oct

    -08

    Apr

    -09

    Oct

    -09

    Apr

    -10

    Oct

    -10

    Apr

    -11

    Shar

    e Pr

    ice

    (`)

    15x 18x 21x 24x

    -5.0

    10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

    Mar

    -05

    Jul-

    05

    Nov

    -05

    Mar

    -06

    Jul-

    06

    Nov

    -06

    Mar

    -07

    Jul-

    07

    Nov

    -07

    Mar

    -08

    Jul-

    08

    Nov

    -08

    Mar

    -09

    Jul-

    09

    Nov

    -09

    Mar

    -10

    Jul-

    10

    Nov

    -10

    Mar

    -11

    -50%

    0%

    50%

    100%

    150%

    200%

    Apr-

    02

    Oct

    -02

    Apr-

    03

    Oct

    -03

    Apr-

    04

    Oct

    -04

    Apr-

    05

    Oct

    -05

    Apr-

    06

    Oct

    -06

    Apr-

    07

    Oct

    -07

    Apr-

    08

    Oct

    -08

    Apr-

    09

    Oct

    -09

    Apr-

    10

    Oct

    -10

    Apr-

    11

  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 10

    Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (` cr) CY07 FY09# FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Gross sales 14,715 21,650 18,220 20,262 22,869 25,786

    Less: Excise duty 1,040 1,410 696 861 1,029 1,212

    Net Sales 13,675 20,239 17,524 19,401 21,840 24,574

    Total operating income 13,675 20,239 17,524 19,401 21,840 24,574

    % chg 13.0 48.0 (13.4) 10.7 12.6 12.5

    Total Expenditure 11,797 17,583 14,975 17,036 18,903 21,147

    Cost of Materials 7,269 10,810 8,878 10,057 10,964 12,116

    Advertising Exp 1,440 2,131 2,391 2,764 3,167 3,686

    Personnel 768 1,152 936 961 1,103 1,241

    Others 2,320 3,490 2,770 3,254 3,669 4,104

    EBITDA 1,879 2,656 2,548 2,365 2,937 3,427

    % chg 14.0 41.4 (4.1) (7.2) 24.2 16.7

    (% of Net Sales) 13.7 13.1 14.5 12.2 13.4 13.9

    Depreciation& Amortisation 138 195 184 221 247 273

    EBIT 1,740 2,461 2,364 2,144 2,690 3,155

    % chg 14.7 41.4 (3.9) (9.3) 25.4 17.3

    (% of Net Sales) 12.7 12.2 13.5 11.1 12.3 12.8

    Interest & other Charges 25 25 7 0 0 0

    Other Income 432 590 350 586 584 608

    (% of PBT) 20.1 19.5 12.9 21.5 17.8 16.2

    Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -

    Recurring PBT 2,146 3,025 2,707 2,730 3,274 3,763

    % chg 15.3 40.9 (10.5) 0.9 19.9 15.0

    Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (182) 4 (99) (207) 0 0

    PBT (reported) 2,329 3,021 2,806 2,937 3,274 3,763

    Tax 403 524 604 631 753 884

    (% of PBT) 18.8 17.3 22.3 23.1 23.0 23.5

    PAT (reported) 1,743 2,501 2,103 2,099 2,521 2,879

    Add: Share of associates - - - - - -

    Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -

    PAT after MI (reported) 1,743 2,501 2,103 2,099 2,521 2,879

    ADJ. PAT 1,925 2,496 2,202 2,306 2,521 2,879

    % chg 3.8 29.7 (11.8) 4.7 9.3 14.2

    (% of Net Sales) 14.1 12.3 12.6 11.9 11.5 11.7

    Basic EPS (`) 8.0 11.5 9.6 9.7 11.7 13.3

    Fully Diluted EPS (`) 8.0 11.5 9.6 9.7 11.7 13.3

    % chg 14.7 43.3 (16.0) 0.9 20.1 14.2

    Note: # FY2009 Results are for 15 Months

  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 11

    Balance Sheet Y/E March (` cr) CY07 FY09# FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    SOURCES OF FUNDS

    Equity Share Capital 218 218 218 216 216 216

    Preference Capital - - - - - -

    Reserves& Surplus 1,221 1,844 2,365 2,903 3,402 3,880

    Shareholders Funds 1,439 2,062 2,584 3,119 3,618 4,096

    Minority Interest - - - - - -

    Total Loans 89 422 0 0 0 0

    Deferred Tax Liability (212) (255) (249) (249) (249) (249)

    Total Liabilities 1,315 2,229 2,335 2,870 3,369 3,848

    APPLICATION OF FUNDS

    Gross Block 2,669 2,882 3,582 4,000 4,412 4,866

    Less: Acc. Depreciation 1,147 1,275 1,420 1,641 1,888 2,160

    Net Block 1,523 1,607 2,162 2,360 2,524 2,706

    Capital Work-in-Progress 186 472 274 400 441 487

    Goodwill - - - - - -

    Investments 1,441 333 1,264 1,764 2,264 2,764

    Current Assets 3,277 5,601 5,368 5,762 6,360 6,948

    Cash 201 1,777 1,892 1,892 2,013 2,051

    Loans & Advances 680 758 617 698 808 922

    Other 2,397 3,066 2,858 3,171 3,539 3,975

    Current liabilities 5,111 5,784 6,733 7,416 8,220 9,057

    Net Current Assets (1,834) (183) (1,365) (1,654) (1,860) (2,109)

    Total Assets 1,315 2,229 2,335 2,870 3,369 3,848

    Note: # FY2009 Results are for 15 Months

    Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (` cr) CY07 FY09# FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Profit before tax 2,146 3,025 2,707 2,730 3,274 3,763 Depreciation 138 195 184 221 247 0 Change in Working Capital 122 (330) 1,391 309 335 276 Interest / Dividend (Net) (142) (126) (122) (174) (189) (209) Direct taxes paid 403 524 604 631 753 0 Others (26) (19) (84) 186 (8) 11 Cash Flow from Operations 1,836 2,220 3,473 2,642 2,906 3,841 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (289) (629) (502) (544) (453) (499) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 998 1,167 (931) (500) (500) (500) Cash Flow from Investing 709 538 (1,434) (1,044) (953) (999) Issue of Equity (633) 39 32 (2) 0 0 Inc./(Dec.) in loans 16 333 (422) 0 0 0 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 2,292 1,677 1,656 1,769 2,021 2,400 Interest / Dividend (Net) (148) (122) (122) (174) (189) (174) Cash Flow from Financing (2,762) (1,181) (1,924) (1,597) (1,832) (2,227)

    Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (216) 1,576 115 0 121 38

    Opening Cash balances 417 201 1,777 1,892 1,892 2,013 Closing Cash balances 201 1,777 1,892 1,892 2,013 2,051 Note: # FY2009 Results are for 15 Months

  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 12

    Key Ratios Y/E March CY07 FY09# FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Valuation Ratio (x)

    P/E (on FDEPS) 32.2 24.8 28.2 26.6 24.4 21.3

    P/CEPS 32.6 22.8 26.9 26.5 22.2 19.5

    P/BV 42.7 29.8 23.8 19.7 17.0 15.0

    Dividend yield (%) 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.3

    EV/Sales 4.4 3.0 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3

    EV/EBITDA 32.2 22.7 23.1 24.7 19.7 16.7

    EV / Total Assets 46.0 27.1 25.2 20.4 17.2 14.9

    Per Share Data (`)

    EPS (Basic) 8.0 11.5 9.6 9.7 11.7 13.3

    EPS (fully diluted) 8.1 11.6 9.7 9.7 11.7 13.3

    Cash EPS 8.7 12.5 10.6 10.7 12.8 14.6

    DPS 9.1 7.5 6.5 7.0 8.0 9.5

    Book Value 6.7 9.5 12.0 14.4 16.8 19.0

    Returns (%)

    RoCE 89.5 138.9 103.6 82.4 86.2 87.4

    Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) - - - - - -

    RoE 83.7 142.9 90.5 73.6 74.8 74.6

    Turnover ratios (x)

    Asset Turnover 5.1 7.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1

    Inventory / Sales (days) 52 46 45 46 46 46

    Receivables (days) 12 10 14 14 14 13

    Payables (days) 102 77 110 111 109 106

    Net Working capital (days) (54) (35) (68) (67) (65) (62)

    Note: # FY2009 Results are for 15 Months

  • HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update

    May 9, 2011 13

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www. angelbroking.com

    Disclaimer

    This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

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    Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

    Disclosure of Interest Statement HUL

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No

    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)