-
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
1
(` cr) 4QFY11 4QFY10 % yoy Angel est. % Diff.
Revenue 4,899.4 4,315.8 13.5 4,843.4 1.2
EBITDA 579.2 531.0 9.1 575.4 0.7
OPM (%) 11.8 12.3 (48bp) 11.9 (6bp)
PAT 485.5 385.7 25.9 455.1 6.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
HUL posted good set of numbers for the quarter, largely in line
with our estimates. The top line grew by 13.5% yoy to `4,899cr
(`4,316cr). Recurring earnings for the quarter grew by 25.9% yoy,
above our estimates. Other key highlights of the results include 1)
11.4% yoy revenue growth in the S&D segment (EBIT margin
contracted by 525bp yoy to 7.5%), 2) food business showed 15.4% yoy
growth and 3) personal products grew by 16.2% yoy, registering the
eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit volume-led growth. We
maintain our Accumulate view on the stock.
Double-digit volume growth continues, profitability yet to
recover: HUL posted 13.5% yoy top-line growth to `4,899cr
(`4,316cr), largely driven by acceleration in volume growth to 14%
yoy. Overall FMCG sales grew by 14% yoy, aided by 13.6% yoy growth
in home and personal care (HPC) and 15.4% yoy growth in the foods
business. At the operating level, OPM contracted by 48bp yoy on
account of raw-material price inflation as gross margin contracted
by 287bp yoy. In terms of earnings, HUL posted a 25.9% yoy increase
to `486cr (`386cr), which was higher than our and streets
expectations.
Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of `284, the stock is trading
at 21.3x FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate view on the
stock with a target price of `306 based on 23x FY2013E revised EPS
of `13.3. Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E
FY2013E
Net sales 17,524 19,401 21,840 24,574
% chg (13.4) 10.7 12.6 12.5
Net profit (Adj.) 2,103 2,099 2,521 2,879
% chg (15.9) (0.2) 20.1 14.2
OPM (%) 14.5 12.2 13.4 13.9
EPS (`) 9.7 9.7 11.7 13.3
P/E (x) 28.2 26.6 24.4 21.3
P/BV (x) 23.8 19.7 17.0 15.0
RoE (%) 90.5 73.6 74.8 74.6
RoCE (%) 101.3 74.7 79.8 82.0
EV/Sales (x) 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 24.7 19.7 16.7 Source: Company, Angel
Research
ACCUMULATE CMP `284 Target Price `306
Investment Period 12 months Stock Info
Sector FMCG
Market Cap (` cr) 62,058
Beta 0.6
52 Week High / Low 329/225
Avg. Daily Volume 2,34,325
Face Value (`) 1.0
BSE Sensex 18,529
Nifty 5,551
Reuters Code HUL.BO
Bloomberg Code HUVR@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters
52.6
MF /Banks /Indian FIs
14.9
FII /NRIs /OCBs
17.6
Indian Public /Others 14.9
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 5.3 10.5 10.7
HUL 3.3 21.2 13.6
Chitrangda Kapur 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6822
[email protected]
Sreekanth P.V.S 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6841
[email protected]
HUL Performance Highlights
HUL|4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 2
Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance
Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY11 4QFY10 % yoy FY2011 FY2010 % chg
Net Sales 4,899.4 4,315.8 13.5 19,401.1 17,523.8 10.7
Consumption of RM 2,658.1 2,217.5 19.9 10,056.8 8,877.9 13.3 (% of
Sales) 54.3 51.4
51.8 50.7
Staff Costs 234.6 238.1 (1.5) 961.3 936.3 2.7 (% of Sales) 4.8
5.5
5.0 5.3
Advertising Expense 623.3 626.5 (0.5) 2,764.2 2,391.4 15.6 (% of
Sales) 12.7 14.5
14.2 13.6
Other Expenses 804.1 702.6 14.4 3,253.6 2,769.7 17.5 (% of
Sales) 16.4 16.3
16.8 15.8
Total Expenditure 4,320.1 3,784.8 14.1 17,035.9 14,975.4 13.8
Operating Profit 579.2 531.0 9.1 2,365.2 2,548.4 (7.2) OPM (%) 11.8
12.3
12.2 14.5
Interest 0.0 0.1 (85.7) 0.2 7.0 (96.7) Depreciation 55.6 50.3
10.6 220.8 184.0 20.0 Other Income 123.2 92.9 32.7 586.0 349.6 67.6
PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 646.8 573.5 12.8 2,730.2 2,707.1 0.9 Extr.
Income/(Expense) 83.6 195.5
206.8 111.3
PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 730.4 769.0 (5.0) 2,937.0 2,818.4 4.2 (%
of Sales) 14.9 17.8
15.1 16.1
Provision for Taxation 161.3 187.8 (14.1) 631.0 616.4 2.4 (% of
PBT) 24.9 32.7
23.1 22.8
Recurring PAT 485.5 385.7 25.9 2,099.2 2,090.7 0.4 PATM (%) 9.9
8.9
10.8 11.9
Reported PAT 569.1 581.2 (2.1) 2,306.0 2,202.0 4.7 Equity shares
(cr) 216.0 216.0
216.0 216.0
FDEPS (`) 2.6 2.7 (2.1) 10.7 10.2 4.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue in line with estimates, led by double-digit volume
growth
HUL posted top-line growth of 13.5% yoy to `4,899cr (`4,316cr),
largely driven by double-digit volume growth of 14% yoy.
Overall FMCG sales grew by 14% yoy, aided by 13.6% yoy growth in
HPC and 15.4% yoy growth in the foods business. In HPC, the soaps
and detergents (S&D) segment posted 11.4% yoy growth despite
price hikes and intense competition in the detergents category. In
detergents, all three brands Rin, Surf and Wheel delivered
double-digit volume growth. Personal products registered 16.2% yoy
growth, registering the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit
volume-led growth. In the foods business, all segments grew well,
contributing to growth (beverages grew by 11.2% yoy, processed
foods grew by 26.6% yoy and ice creams grew by 21% yoy).
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 3
Exhibit 2: Double-digit top-line growth continues
Source: Company, Angel research
Exhibit 3: Strong volume growth maintained
Source: Company, Angel research
Recurring earnings spike by 26% yoy despite a dip in margin
In terms of earnings, HUL posted a 25.9% yoy increase to `486cr
(`386cr) on a recurring basis, aided by a 32.7% yoy jump in other
income and a 781bp yoy decrease in tax expense, impacted by margin
contraction and a 10.6% yoy increase in depreciation expense to
`56cr (`50cr). However, on a reported basis, HUL posted a ~2.1% yoy
decline in earnings to `569cr (`581cr), aided by `84cr exceptional
gain during the quarter (on account of profit on sale of property
and long-term investments).
OPM dips by 48bp due to higher input cost inflation
At the operating level, HUL posted yet another quarter of weak
performance on account of raw-material price inflation as gross
margin contracted by 287bp yoy, though the decrease in ad spends
(down 180bp yoy) and staff costs (down 73bp yoy) curtailed the
further fall in OPM. Hence, operating margin for the quarter
contracted by 48bp yoy to 11.8% (12.3%), resulting in a 9.1% yoy
increase in EBITDA to `579cr (`532cr) during the quarter.
In terms of categories, the S&D segment witnessed a 525bp
yoy margin contraction due to escalated input costs; and personal
products registered a margin expansion of 325bp on account of
strong double-digit volume growth. Processed foods margins
contracted by 65bp yoy. Beverages registered margin expansion of
181bp yoy and ice creams registered a 169bp yoy expansion,
respectively.
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
4Q
09
5Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
(%)
(` c
r)
Top-line (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
2
(4)
2 1
5
11 11 14 13 14
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
4Q
09
5Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
(%)
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 4
Exhibit 4: Earnings growth higher than expected
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Margins remain a concern
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Segment-wise performance Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY11
4QFY10 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg
Soaps and Detergents 2,205 1,978 11.4 8,792 8,266 6.4 Personal
Product 1,459 1,255 16.2 5,844 5,048 15.8 Beverages 634 570 11.2
2,344 2,142 9.4 Processed Foods 250 198 26.6 903 731 23.5 Ice
Creams 67 55 21.0 275 231 18.9 Exports 279 256 9.3 1,100 1,005 9.4
Others 62 64 (4.2) 438 347 26.3 Less: Inter Segment Revenue - -
0 (4)
Total Gross Income 4,956 4,377 13.2 19,694 17,766 10.9
Soaps and Detergents 166 253 (34.4) 834 1,185 (29.6) Personal
Products 365 273 33.6 1,495 1,297 15.3 Beverages 99 79 25.7 358 320
11.9 Processed Foods 8.4 7.9
13 4 190.1
Ice Creams (1) (2) (51.0) 19 13 53.3 Exports 27 13 104.3 92 59
56.3 Others (12) (19)
(75) (72)
Total PBIT 654 605 8.0 2,736 2,805 (2.5) Less: Interest Exp. (0)
(0)
(0) (7)
Less: Other Unallocable Exp 77 112
202 (36)
PBT 730 717 1.9 2,937 2,763 6.3
PBIT Margin (%)
Soap and Detergent 7.5 12.8
9.5 14.3
Personal Product 25.0 21.8
25.6 25.7
Beverages 15.7 13.8 15.3 14.9 Processed Foods 3.3 4.0 1.4 0.6
Ice Creams (1.2) (2.8) 7.1 5.5 Exports 9.8 5.2 8.3 5.8 Others
(18.7) (29.9) (17.1) (20.8)
Source: Company, Angel Research
(30.0)(20.0)(10.0)-10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
10 110 210 310 410 510 610 710
4Q
09
5Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
( %)
`cr)
PAT (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
16.1 13.2 15.4 14.4 16.0 12.3 12.5 12.0 12.4 11.8
46.1 47.8 48.4 49.3 50.9 48.6 49.0 49.1 48.9 45.7
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
4Q
09
5Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
(%)
OPM Gross margin
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 5
S&D segment continued its recovery mode, margins dip
further
HULs S&D segment continued its recovery mode, registering
11.4% yoy growth with Surf, Rin and Wheel delivering double-digit
volume growth in detergents and robust growth from Dove and Pears.
Also, brand re-launches and new variants in soaps fuelled the
segments growth. However, profitability took a hit as margins
dipped by 525bp yoy primarily due to high input cost inflation.
While we have modeled in an 8.5% CAGR in the S&D segments
revenue over FY201113E, going ahead, we expect the S&D segment
to post higher volume growth (aided by low base, corrective
actions). Moreover, recent price hikes in select SKUs of soaps and
detergents are likely to aid margin recovery in the coming
quarters. A key risk to our call of recovery in the S&D segment
emanates from the lack of pricing power recovery, growing market
share of ITC and rising palm oil prices.
Exhibit 7: S&D maintains impressive growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: High palm oil price impacts EBIT margin
Source: Company, Angel Research
Personal product sales maintain double-digit volume growth
The personal products segment registered 16.2% yoy growth,
largely aided by volumes, registering the eighth consecutive
quarter of double-digit growth. All skin care brands posted
double-digit volume growth, with Vaseline sales doubling during the
quarter. Hair care and oral care also performed well with hair care
growing at a sustained double-digit volume growth rate. Toothpastes
also performed well with brands such as Close up and Pepsodent
showing strong growth. Hence, margins in the segment showed a 325bp
yoy expansion to 25%.
We have modeled in a 15.2% CAGR in the personal products
segments revenue and flat margins for FY201113E on account higher
ad spends.
(5.0)-5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
4Q
09
5Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
(%)
(`cr
)
Top-line (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
-
100
200
300
400
500
4Q
09
5Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
(%)
(`cr
)
EBIT (LHS) EBIT % (RHS)
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 6
Exhibit 9: Eight quarters of double-digit growth
Source: Company, Angel research
Exhibit 10: EBIT margin expands yoy
Source: Company, Angel research
Processed foods and ice creams do well, beverages disappoint
The foods segment recorded 15.4% yoy growth, driven largely by
strong growth in processed foods (up 26.6% yoy) and ice creams (up
21% yoy). However, beverages registered moderate growth of 11.2%
yoy as the tea and coffee market is picking up pace. Processed
foods grew in strong double digits, as Kissan and Knorr showed
impressive volume-led growth with new offerings such as juices,
spreads and malted food.
Investment rationale
Brand positioning shifts from the mass market segment to the
premium market segment: HUL has been very actively re-launching
products from its existing
brands and has increased the pace of new launches, targeting the
mid/premium
market segment (launched Ponds Gold Radiance and re-launched
Dove and Rin
in the personal products and S&D segments, respectively);
this in our view is
positive, considering that the company will have a better
control on pricing.
Moreover, constant innovations have helped HUL stabilise its
market share
losses. However, we retain a slight caution against ITCs
commitment to
categories such as soaps, shampoos and skin care, which may pose
a major
threat for HUL in the long run. We model in an 8.5% and 15.7%
CAGR in the
S&D and personal products segments revenue over FY201113E
and expect
margins at ~11% and ~26% for the S&D and personal products
segments,
respectively.
Strong domestic play and robust balance sheet provide further
impetus: HUL with its iconic brands has sustained its volume
growth, which is impressive given
the recent price hike and strong competitive scenario,
indicating a revival in
consumer demand and higher growth in the mid/premium-end market
segment.
Moreover, HUL is a cash-rich, zero-debt company enjoying high
RoE of ~75%.
We have modeled a recurring earnings CAGR of ~17% over FY201113E
and
expect margins to improve by 126bp yoy in FY2012E to 13.4% (as
we expect
raw-material inflation to cool down a bit with the forecast of
normal monsoons),
and a 50bp yoy improvement to 13.9% in FY2013E.
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
4Q
09
5Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
(%)
(`cr
)
Top-line (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
4Q
09
5Q
09
1Q
10
2Q
10
3Q
10
4Q
10
1Q
11
2Q
11
3Q
11
4Q
11
(%)
(`cr
)
EBIT (LHS) EBIT % (RHS)
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 7
Outlook and valuation
Sustained double-digit volume growth for four consecutive
quarters (albeit on a low base) and steady performance of the
personal products and foods businesses were the key positive
takeaways from 4QFY2011 results. We have marginally revised our
numbers. Our earnings estimates have been revised upward by 12% as
concerns over inflationary environment wane.
Exhibit 11: Change in estimates
Old estimates New estimates % chg
(` cr) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Revenue 21,922 24,772
21,840 24,574 (0.4) (0.8) OPM (%) 13.0 13.7 13.4 13.9 49bp 24bp EPS
(`) 11.3 13.2 11.7 13.3 2.9 0.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
We expect HUL to post a 13% CAGR in its top line over FY201113E,
largely aided by steady performance of the companys personal care
and foods division (aided by innovations and higher ad spends),
spike in detergents volume growth and modest performance of the
soaps business (aided by brand re-launches). On the earnings front,
we expect HUL to post a 17.1% CAGR in terms of recurring earnings
during the period, aided by higher margins (as raw-material
concerns wane with the forecast of normal monsoons).
At the CMP of `284, the stock is trading at 21.3x FY2013E
earnings. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock with a
target price of `306, based on 23x FY2013E revised EPS of
`13.3.
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 8
Exhibit 12: Key assumptions FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E FY2013E
Gross top line (` cr) Soaps & Detergents 8,266 8,792 9,495
10,349 Personal Products 5,048 5,844 6,750 7,830 Beverages 2,142
2,344 2,555 2,785 Processed Foods 731 903 1,119 1,399 Ice Creams
231 275 316 363 Exports 1,005 1,100 1,210 1,337 Others 347 438 526
641 Top-line growth (%) Soaps & Detergents 1.5 6.4 8.0 9.0
Personal Products 15.6 15.8 15.5 16.0 Beverages 14.7 9.4 9.0 9.0
Processed Foods 11.3 23.5 24.0 25.0 Ice Creams 16.5 18.9 15.0 15.0
Exports (14.6) 9.4 10.0 10.5 Others 10.3 26.3 20.0 22.0 PBIT (` cr)
Soaps & Detergents 1,185 834 1,139 1,242 Personal Products
1,297 1,495 1,721 1,997 Beverages 320 358 396 432 Processed Foods 4
13 34 42 Ice Creams 13 19 27 31 Exports 59 92 99 110 Others (72)
(75) (58) (71) PBIT margin (%) Soaps & Detergents 14.3 9.5 12.0
12.0 Personal Products 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.5 Beverages 14.9 15.3 15.5
15.5 Processed Foods 0.6 1.4 3.0 3.0 Ice Creams 5.5 7.1 8.5 8.5
Exports 5.8 8.3 8.2 8.2 Others (20.8) (17.1) (11.0) (11.0)
Source: Company, Angel Research
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 9
Exhibit 13: Peer valuation Company Reco Mcap CMP TP* Upside P/E
(x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) CAGR #
(` cr) (`) (`) (%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Sales
PAT
Asian Paints Neutral 26,239 2,736 2,767 1.1 26.1 21.8 2.8 2.3
39.9 37.6 17.1 19.7
Britannia Buy 4,414 370 458 23.9 25.9 17.8 0.9 0.8 35.7 44.5
14.2 17.1
Colgate Reduce 12,226 899 837 (6.9) 26.5 23.6 4.6 4.1 100.1 87.2
13.5 11.8
Dabur Accumulate 17,804 102 115 12.4 24.7 21.3 3.3 2.8 51.0 46.1
21.6 20.0
GSKCHL Reduce 9,604 2,283 2,163 (5.3) 27.6 23.2 3.2 2.7 32.6
31.8 17.3 17.5
GCPL Accumulate 12,713 393 447 13.8 22.0 19.3 3.3 2.9 35.1 26.3
13.4 17.8
HUL Accumulate 62,058 284 306 7.6 24.4 21.3 2.6 2.3 74.8 74.6
12.5 17.1
ITC Accumulate 142,691 184 205 11.4 24.3 21.5 5.5 4.8 31.9 30.6
13.5 14.2
Marico Accumulate 8,063 131 140 6.6 26.5 21.5 2.4 2.1 30.8 29.0
12.0 25.7
Nestle Reduce 39,864 4,134 3,483 (15.8) 40.9 34.4 5.4 4.7 91.1
72.9 16.1 18.9
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: #Denotes CAGR for
FY201113E, * In case of Neutral recommendation, TP = Fair value
Exhibit 14: Angel vs. consensus estimates Top line (` cr)
FY2012E FY2013E EPS (`) FY2012E FY2013E Angel estimates 21,840
24,574 Angel estimates 11.7 13.3 Consensus 21,731 24,542 Consensus
11.2 12.8 Diff (%) 0.5 0.1 Diff (%) 4.2 4.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 15: Returns HUL vs. Sensex (Indexed to 100)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 16: One-year forward P/E band
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 17: One-year forward P/E chart
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Blue line indicates
5-year average
Exhibit 18: One-year forward premium vs. Sensex chart
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Blue line indicates
5-year average
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
Apr
-10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-
10
Aug
-10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11
Sensex HUL
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Apr
-05
Oct
-05
Apr
-06
Oct
-06
Apr
-07
Oct
-07
Apr
-08
Oct
-08
Apr
-09
Oct
-09
Apr
-10
Oct
-10
Apr
-11
Shar
e Pr
ice
(`)
15x 18x 21x 24x
-5.0
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
Mar
-05
Jul-
05
Nov
-05
Mar
-06
Jul-
06
Nov
-06
Mar
-07
Jul-
07
Nov
-07
Mar
-08
Jul-
08
Nov
-08
Mar
-09
Jul-
09
Nov
-09
Mar
-10
Jul-
10
Nov
-10
Mar
-11
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Apr-
02
Oct
-02
Apr-
03
Oct
-03
Apr-
04
Oct
-04
Apr-
05
Oct
-05
Apr-
06
Oct
-06
Apr-
07
Oct
-07
Apr-
08
Oct
-08
Apr-
09
Oct
-09
Apr-
10
Oct
-10
Apr-
11
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 10
Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (` cr) CY07 FY09# FY10
FY11E FY12E FY13E
Gross sales 14,715 21,650 18,220 20,262 22,869 25,786
Less: Excise duty 1,040 1,410 696 861 1,029 1,212
Net Sales 13,675 20,239 17,524 19,401 21,840 24,574
Total operating income 13,675 20,239 17,524 19,401 21,840
24,574
% chg 13.0 48.0 (13.4) 10.7 12.6 12.5
Total Expenditure 11,797 17,583 14,975 17,036 18,903 21,147
Cost of Materials 7,269 10,810 8,878 10,057 10,964 12,116
Advertising Exp 1,440 2,131 2,391 2,764 3,167 3,686
Personnel 768 1,152 936 961 1,103 1,241
Others 2,320 3,490 2,770 3,254 3,669 4,104
EBITDA 1,879 2,656 2,548 2,365 2,937 3,427
% chg 14.0 41.4 (4.1) (7.2) 24.2 16.7
(% of Net Sales) 13.7 13.1 14.5 12.2 13.4 13.9
Depreciation& Amortisation 138 195 184 221 247 273
EBIT 1,740 2,461 2,364 2,144 2,690 3,155
% chg 14.7 41.4 (3.9) (9.3) 25.4 17.3
(% of Net Sales) 12.7 12.2 13.5 11.1 12.3 12.8
Interest & other Charges 25 25 7 0 0 0
Other Income 432 590 350 586 584 608
(% of PBT) 20.1 19.5 12.9 21.5 17.8 16.2
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 2,146 3,025 2,707 2,730 3,274 3,763
% chg 15.3 40.9 (10.5) 0.9 19.9 15.0
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (182) 4 (99) (207) 0 0
PBT (reported) 2,329 3,021 2,806 2,937 3,274 3,763
Tax 403 524 604 631 753 884
(% of PBT) 18.8 17.3 22.3 23.1 23.0 23.5
PAT (reported) 1,743 2,501 2,103 2,099 2,521 2,879
Add: Share of associates - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 1,743 2,501 2,103 2,099 2,521 2,879
ADJ. PAT 1,925 2,496 2,202 2,306 2,521 2,879
% chg 3.8 29.7 (11.8) 4.7 9.3 14.2
(% of Net Sales) 14.1 12.3 12.6 11.9 11.5 11.7
Basic EPS (`) 8.0 11.5 9.6 9.7 11.7 13.3
Fully Diluted EPS (`) 8.0 11.5 9.6 9.7 11.7 13.3
% chg 14.7 43.3 (16.0) 0.9 20.1 14.2
Note: # FY2009 Results are for 15 Months
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 11
Balance Sheet Y/E March (` cr) CY07 FY09# FY10 FY11E FY12E
FY13E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 218 218 218 216 216 216
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 1,221 1,844 2,365 2,903 3,402 3,880
Shareholders Funds 1,439 2,062 2,584 3,119 3,618 4,096
Minority Interest - - - - - -
Total Loans 89 422 0 0 0 0
Deferred Tax Liability (212) (255) (249) (249) (249) (249)
Total Liabilities 1,315 2,229 2,335 2,870 3,369 3,848
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 2,669 2,882 3,582 4,000 4,412 4,866
Less: Acc. Depreciation 1,147 1,275 1,420 1,641 1,888 2,160
Net Block 1,523 1,607 2,162 2,360 2,524 2,706
Capital Work-in-Progress 186 472 274 400 441 487
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 1,441 333 1,264 1,764 2,264 2,764
Current Assets 3,277 5,601 5,368 5,762 6,360 6,948
Cash 201 1,777 1,892 1,892 2,013 2,051
Loans & Advances 680 758 617 698 808 922
Other 2,397 3,066 2,858 3,171 3,539 3,975
Current liabilities 5,111 5,784 6,733 7,416 8,220 9,057
Net Current Assets (1,834) (183) (1,365) (1,654) (1,860)
(2,109)
Total Assets 1,315 2,229 2,335 2,870 3,369 3,848
Note: # FY2009 Results are for 15 Months
Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (` cr) CY07 FY09# FY10 FY11E FY12E
FY13E
Profit before tax 2,146 3,025 2,707 2,730 3,274 3,763
Depreciation 138 195 184 221 247 0 Change in Working Capital 122
(330) 1,391 309 335 276 Interest / Dividend (Net) (142) (126) (122)
(174) (189) (209) Direct taxes paid 403 524 604 631 753 0 Others
(26) (19) (84) 186 (8) 11 Cash Flow from Operations 1,836 2,220
3,473 2,642 2,906 3,841 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (289) (629)
(502) (544) (453) (499) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 998 1,167 (931)
(500) (500) (500) Cash Flow from Investing 709 538 (1,434) (1,044)
(953) (999) Issue of Equity (633) 39 32 (2) 0 0 Inc./(Dec.) in
loans 16 333 (422) 0 0 0 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 2,292 1,677
1,656 1,769 2,021 2,400 Interest / Dividend (Net) (148) (122) (122)
(174) (189) (174) Cash Flow from Financing (2,762) (1,181) (1,924)
(1,597) (1,832) (2,227)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (216) 1,576 115 0 121 38
Opening Cash balances 417 201 1,777 1,892 1,892 2,013 Closing
Cash balances 201 1,777 1,892 1,892 2,013 2,051 Note: # FY2009
Results are for 15 Months
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 12
Key Ratios Y/E March CY07 FY09# FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 32.2 24.8 28.2 26.6 24.4 21.3
P/CEPS 32.6 22.8 26.9 26.5 22.2 19.5
P/BV 42.7 29.8 23.8 19.7 17.0 15.0
Dividend yield (%) 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.3
EV/Sales 4.4 3.0 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3
EV/EBITDA 32.2 22.7 23.1 24.7 19.7 16.7
EV / Total Assets 46.0 27.1 25.2 20.4 17.2 14.9
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 8.0 11.5 9.6 9.7 11.7 13.3
EPS (fully diluted) 8.1 11.6 9.7 9.7 11.7 13.3
Cash EPS 8.7 12.5 10.6 10.7 12.8 14.6
DPS 9.1 7.5 6.5 7.0 8.0 9.5
Book Value 6.7 9.5 12.0 14.4 16.8 19.0
Returns (%)
RoCE 89.5 138.9 103.6 82.4 86.2 87.4
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) - - - - - -
RoE 83.7 142.9 90.5 73.6 74.8 74.6
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover 5.1 7.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1
Inventory / Sales (days) 52 46 45 46 46 46
Receivables (days) 12 10 14 14 14 13
Payables (days) 102 77 110 111 109 106
Net Working capital (days) (54) (35) (68) (67) (65) (62)
Note: # FY2009 Results are for 15 Months
-
HUL | 4QFY2011 Result Update
May 9, 2011 13
Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail:
[email protected] Website: www. angelbroking.com
Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the
recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any
investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed
as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document
should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at
an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the
companies referred to in this document (including the merits and
risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine
the merits and risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its
proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to
time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or
contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views
contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the
company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on
studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions
and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's
fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a
company's fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis
of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is
accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as
this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited
or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person
from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this
report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the
information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot
testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or
implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this
document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a
reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there
may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us
from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your
information, and its contents, information or data may not be
reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or
have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the
companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report
or in the past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or
affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise
from or in connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure'
report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer
to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status
in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its
affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended
in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement HUL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group
companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group
companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking
relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for
Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy
(> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to
15%) Sell (< -15%)