Evolution of animal production in africa and other emerging markets

Evolution of animal production in Africa and other emerging markets

Danilo Pezo

ILRI Country Representative in Uganda

African Livestock Conference and Exhibition (ALICE 2014)

Kampala, Uganda, 18th - 20th June 2014

Animal agriculture to 2050: TRENDS

GLOBAL TRENDS: The Livestock Revolution

• Livestock demand and production are increasing rapidly in developing countries, and will continue to rise

• Where and how most livestock commodities are produced, sold and consumed is changing significantly

Consumption of livestock products to 2050

• Globally: An overall increase in per capita daily consumption of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000

• Commodities differ: – A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption

– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption

• Regions differ: – In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie

consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC

– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC

Herrero et al. 2014

% change in consumption of animal products: 2000–2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultrymeat

Eggs

China

Russia

Brazil

India

SSA

High income

843%

%

FAO 2011

Projections of livestock production increases: 2000–2050

• In half a century, total livestock commodity production is projected to increase by 92%:

+106% for monogastric meat (pig and poultry) and poultry eggs

+88% for ruminant meat (cow, sheep, goat, camel, water buffalo)

+85% for milk

• With big regional differences

Herrero et al. 2014

% change in production of animal products: 2000–2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultrymeat

Eggs

China

Russia

Brazil

India

SSA

High income

%

FAO 2011

Import and export of meat (000s metric tonnes)

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020

SSA

India

Brazil

Russia

China

Exp

ort

Im

po

rt

Beef Pork Poultry FAPRI 2012

8

Production Systems

Monogastric production systems in Africa are in rapid transition to industrial

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050

smallholder

industrial

Europe Latin America Africa/Middle East Herrero et al. 2014

Over 30% of African

monogastric

production will still be

smallholder in 2050

Ruminant production systems

Mixed systems are an important source of ruminant meat

o Europe: 42% mixed temperate

o Latin America: 48% mixed humid

o Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid

For milk:

o Over 50% of milk comes from mixed systems, regardless of the region

o Big increases in milk production by 2050 continue to be in mixed systems, especially in Africa and the Middle East

Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepers are competitive

East African dairy • 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd • Efficient use of forages results in lower milk production costs • Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers

have same levels of efficiency and profits

Ugandan pig systems • 90% of production in hands of smallholders (< 3 sows or <5

fattening pigs) • Smallholders have lower unit costs • Industrial pig production highly dependent on mixed feeds. • Great opportunities for productivity increases, if diseases

(i.e., ASF, parasites) are controlled, and farmers have better access to information.

• High demand for pork, and still increasing IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2013

Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector

Strong growth Intensifying and increasingly market oriented often transforming smallholder systems

Fragile growth Where remoteness, marginal land resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification

High growth with externalities Intensified livestock systems with diverse challenges including the environment and human health

Policies

Animal health ★Vaccines ★Diagnostics

★Delivery systems

Markets & institutions ★New business arrangements

★Good access to markets

Human H & N ★Risk- not rule-based

regulations ★Controlled zoonoses ★Balanced diets

Environment ★Improved feed

efficiency = < GHGE ★Waste management

Feed ★Judicious biomass use

★Improved feeds/feed strategies ★Viable feed markets

Genetics ★Improved local

breeds ★Breeds well-matched

to environments

Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector

• Animal diseases results in low productivity, high mortality rates, consequently are responsible for important economic losses

• As livestock systems intensify in developing countries, diseases may increase

• Zoonotic diseases kill 2.2 million each year and sickens 2.4 billion

Young Adult

Cattle 22% 6%

Shoat 28% 11%

Poultry 70% 30%

Otte & Chilonda IAEA

Annual mortality of African livestock (About half due to preventable or curable diseases)

Animal diseases: a key constraint in Africa

Annual losses from selected diseases: Africa and South Asia

BMGF

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Bill

ion

$ lo

st y

earl

y

South Asia

Africa

Africa

South Asia

Animal health markets: Opportunities in developing countries

• Proper delivery systems for smallholder farmers (i.e., vaccination, technical assistance, etc.)

• Simple biosecurity measures

• Quality assurance for veterinary medicines

• Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g., drugs in smaller packages)

• Surveillance for drug resistance

Animal feed markets: Trends in developing countries to 2030

• Use of crop residues is decreasing, but still comprises >50% of livestock diets in SSA and South Asia

• Use of crop by-products (e.g., oilcakes) and concentrates is increasing, but remains <10%, except in India dairy (25%)

• Use of planted forages is increasing

• Use of compounded feeds bought from

markets is increasing

World Bank 2012

Animal feed markets: Opportunities in developing countries

• Feed technologies

– Food-feed crops

– Proper management of forage resources, including fodder trees

– Better use of available feeds

– Via processing (chopping)

– Feed mixtures (rations)

– Strategic supplementation

• Institutional and market issues

• Feed regulatory policies

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