Evaluation of precipitation from reanalyses and satellite products in Australia and East Asia Jorge L. Peña Arancibia, Albert I.J.M. van Dijk, Luigi J. Renzullo and Tim Raupach, all at CSIRO Mark Mulligan KCL 24 April 2012 CSIRO LAND AND WATER/WATER FOR A HEALTHY COUNTRY Gauge + Satellite Gauge only 12/12/2009 http://eos.csiro.au/
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Evaluation of precipitation from reanalyses and satellite products in Australia and East Asia
12/12/2009. Evaluation of precipitation from reanalyses and satellite products in Australia and East Asia. Gauge + Satellite. Gauge only. http://eos.csiro.au/. CSIRO land and Water/water for a healthy country. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Evaluation of precipitation from reanalyses and satellite products in Australia and East AsiaJorge L. Peña Arancibia, Albert I.J.M. van Dijk, Luigi J. Renzullo and Tim Raupach, all at CSIROMark Mulligan KCL24 April 2012CSIRO LAND AND WATER/WATER FOR A HEALTHY COUNTRY
Gauge + Satellite
Gauge only
12/12/2009
http://eos.csiro.au/
Data and methods NCEP-DOE, JRA-25, ERA-Interim, TRMM 3B42 V6, CMORPH, PERSIANN FD mapped ensemble precipitation SILO (Jeffrey et al., 2001, ENVSOFT),
APHRODITE SEA (Yatagai et al., 2009, SOLA) Detection and agreement metrics for 2003–
2007 (rainfall >1mm d-1).
Global satellite and reanalyses precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Six member statistics
FD mapped ensemble
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
iensPprobprob ,* *probPP obsadj
prob* is the probability of the value Pens on day i in the ensemble precipitation time series (Pens), Padj is the empirically adjusted precipitation time series, Pobs is the observed precipitation time series, Pens is the ensemble time series
Detection: occurrence of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
How well did the forecast "yes" events correspond to the observed "yes" events(accounting for hits due to chance)?
random
random
hitssfalsealarmmisseshits
hitshitsETS
total
sfalsealarmhitsmisseshitshitsrandom
ETS
Detection: occurrence of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
How well did the forecast "yes" events correspond to the observed "yes" events(accounting for hits due to chance)?
ETSETS
Colour codes means best product: red for reanalysis and blue for satellite, ensemble black
Detection: occurrence of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
ETS
Range: -1/3 to 1, 0 indicates no skill. Perfect score: 1.
Agreement: quantity/timing of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Pmonth: difference in the ratio of monthly precipitation amount to total days with precipitation
Correlation RMSD Pmonth
Pmonth
RMSD
Correlation
Agreement: quantity/timing of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Pmonth: difference in the ratio of monthly precipitation amount to total days with precipitation
Correlation RMSD Pmonth
Agreement: quantity/timing of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Pmonth: difference in the ratio of monthly precipitation amount to total days with precipitation
Pmonth
RMSD
Correlation
TS averaged over the entire domain
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Correlation
ETS
RMSD
Pmonth
Summary
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
POD: probability of detection (0-1) perfect score 1FAR: false alarm ratio (0-1) perfect score 0BIAS: bias in over (>1) or underdetecting (<1) perfect score 1
Summary
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data