www.bsc.es Evaluating the global contribution from MACC when modelling an ozone episode over Spain M.T. Pay 1 , V. Valverde 1 , J.M. Baldasano 1,2 1 Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain 2 Environmental Modeling Laboratory, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain MACC-III Policy User Workshop, Wien, Austria, March 3-4, 2015
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Evaluating the global contribution from MACC when … Evaluating the global contribution from MACC when modelling an ozone episode over Spain M.T. Pay 1, V. Valverde , J.M. Baldasano1,2
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www.bsc.es
Evaluating the global contribution from MACC when modelling an ozone episode over Spain
M.T. Pay1, V. Valverde1, J.M. Baldasano1,2
1Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain2Environmental Modeling Laboratory, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain
MACC-III Policy User Workshop, Wien, Austria, March 3-4, 2015
The problem of O3 in Europe & Spain
• O3 precursors emissions have declined (27% for NOx and 28% NMVOC) (EEA, 2013a)
• High O3 (rural background), concentrations are still a problem: exceedances TV (21%), LTO (85%), IT (28%) and AT (3%) in summer 2012 (EEA, 2013b).
• O3 complex pollutant: secondary (NOx/VOC), long-range transported, stratospheric, etc.
• O3 is not longer a local air quality issue, it is a hemispheric and global problem
• Regions: Medit. area > Central & E EU > NW EU > N EU
An important aspect in the regional/area applications of AQF systems is the way in which models are initialized: initial and chemical boundary conditions.
The use of climatological averages is one of the common practices, but implementing boundary conditions obtained from global models is currently a significant challenge:
– Which are the required parameters from the global model (key pollutants, meteoparameters)?
– Are the temporal and spatial resolutions of the global model consistent with our application?
– Which vertical interpolation techniques from the global to regional/city scale?
– Is the forecast time of the global model enough to produce regional/city forecasts?
– Are there consistency between chemical mechanisms and aerosol sizes?
Global products Download links
MACC project forecast and analysis http://join.iek.fz-juelich.de/macc/access
MOZART-4 model forecast http://www.acd.ucar.edu/acresp/forecast/
MATCH-MPIC model forecast http://cwf.mpic.de/~cwf/cgi-bin/match/std_figs/forecasts_std_figs.pl
• Evaluated by means brute force zero-out scenarios (Kwok et al., 2013, 2014)
• Hybrid approach for O3: using the PH2O2/PHNO3 indicator ratio.
• Tracers for NOx (9) and VOC families (19) are based on CB05 species contributing to O3 formation.
ISAM-EU12 (Europe, 12 km x 12 km)
Spain* (Spanish IP + Balearic Islands)
• BCON: MACC global (global O3
transport out from EU12)• EURO: countries surrounding Spain*• ESP: Spain*• OTHR: Ocean• ICON: initial conditions
Apply Source Apportionment in CALIOPE (CMAQ-ISAM):1. Check the performance of the MACC boundary condition2. Assess the origin of O3 exceedances in Spain from different scales (global, regional, country)
Region contribution to O3 in Spain (EU12):Mean concentration 21-31 July 2012
O3 from Spain
O3 from shipping O3 from GLOBAL MACC
TOTAL O3 O3 from Europe
Region contribution to O3 in Spainhourly contribution at Niembro station
O3
North Western Advection
LTO
• Under ITL, BCON dominates.• Under the NWAd:
• EURO shows the highest contribution: 40 µg/m3 mean,60 µm/m3 during the peak
• Persistent shipping contribution (10-20 µm/m3)
• Low ESP contribution (< 20 µg/m3)
Iberian Thermal Low Iberian Thermal Low
Region contribution to O3 in Spainat rural background sites
LTO
LTO
LTO
LTO
LTO
LTO
EURO controls EURO controls
ESP controls
ESP controls
Portugal controls
Portugal + ESP + Shipping controls
Summary of SA: region contribution to O3 in Spain
64% non-ESP ≈ 20% EURO + 44% global MACC
20% ESP
Regions contribution to O3 in
Spain (RB stations)
1% ICON
13% OCEAN ≈ Shipping
≈ 10% SNAP7 + 6% OTHR + 2% SNAP1 + 2% SNAP34
Conclusions and future work
MACC global forecasts is a valuable product to feed regional forecast simulations:
– Enough time at sufficient spatial resolution to produce a real-time forecast.
– Large number of chemical components.
– High performance in terms of vertical profiles in Europe.
ISAM source apportionment is useful as a diagnostic tool:
– Check chemical boundary conditions.
– Quantify the contribution at different scales and sources.
O3 overestimation in the eastern domain of the CALIOPE system are linked to how MACC boundary conditions are implemented in the boundaries. Next steps:
– Interpolation methods from global to regional: test “Weighted average” instead “Nearest-neighbor interpolation ” (current)
– Increase the vertical resolution of the regional model (first layer from 40 to ~20 m).
Assessment of the origin of O3 exceedances in Spain in a typical summer episode:
– Not only national (~20%), but continental (~20%), hemispheric and global (~44%).
– NWad brings O3 and precursors from N EU countries and international shipping inland Spain up to 60 µg/m3
(~40-50 µg/m3) in N Spain; meanwhile central and costal areas are more affected by recirculation of local precursors.
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Thank you for your attentionReferences:
EEA, 2013a. Air quality in Europe – 2013 report. European Environmental Agency, EEA Report, No 9/2013. ISSN 1725-
9177. 112 pp.
EEA, 2013b. Air pollution by ozone across Europe during summer 2012. Overview of exceedances of EC ozone threshold
values for April-September 2012. European Environmental Agency, EEA Report, No 3/2013. ISSN 1725-2237. 52 pp.
Kwok, R., Baker, K., Napelenok, S., Tonnesen, G., 2014. Photochemical grid model implementation of VOC, NOx, and O3
source apportionment. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 7, 5791-5829.
Kwok, R., Napelenok, S., Baker, K., 2013. Implementation and evaluation of PM2.5 source contribution analysis in a