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Evaluate How Climate Change Impacts upon

Patterns of Global Tourism

Josh Brunsdon, Joe Crompton, Maddie Paget and Kyran Schneider

Abstract

Climate has a strong influence over tourism and in the most popular destinations, it represents their

primary asset. Tourism’s contribution to Climate Change is often the subject of considerable research and

topic debate. This is due to the fact it contributes between 4-10% of global carbon dioxide emissions

(Peeters 2007). Tourism may impact on Climate Change but it is the effect Climate Change will soon have

on future tourism that will be considered in this report. Climate Change will manifests its impacts in

various ways and in numerous locations across the globe. Understanding the varying consequences of

Climate Change on tourism patterns however, is perhaps the biggest challenge for the various interested

parties within the industry, looking forward.

(United Nations 2015)

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Table of Contents:

1.0 Introduction – Page 3

2.0 Assignment Rationale and – Page 4

3.0 Summary of Methods – Page 4

4.0 Key Questions

4.1 In what ways will Climate Change cause the appeal of some destinations to

increase, decrease or be removed all together? – Pages 5-9

4.1.1 How will rising sea levels impact on the appeal of tourism destinations?

– Page 6

4.1.2 To what extent will rising temperatures cause the attraction of some

European destinations to improve or decline? – Pages 7-9

4.1.3 How will the increased frequency of extreme weather events affect

Caribbean tourism? – Page 10

4.2 Will attitudes towards Climate Change affect the holiday decision making

processes? Pages 11-13

4.2.1 How will Climate Change impact the decision making processes involved

in holiday planning? Page 12

4.2.2 Will the nature and concept of the ‘holiday’ be impacted by Climate

Change? Page 13

4.2.3 Is there a future for ‘Eco-Tourism’? Page 13

4.3 How will Climate Change affect the availability, nature and safety of future

transport? Does this impact upon tourism patterns? Pages 14-16

4.3.1 How will tourist perspectives on transport and travel change as a result

of Climate Change? Page 15

4.3.2 What is the future of the aviation Industry within tourism? Page 15

4.3.3 How will transport adapt to changing weather conditions caused by

Climate Change? Page 16.

4.4 Have changes in international climate policy impacted patterns of global tourism

and how could future Governmental Organisation (GO) and Non-Governmental

Organisational (NGO) intervention cause further change? Pages 18-21

4.4.1 What has been the effect of new legislation and regulations within

aviation on tourism patterns? Page 19

4.4.2 Is GO or NGO involvement likely to have any impact on tourism

patterns? Pages 20-21

5.0 Conclusion and Executive Summary Page 22

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Tourism is a multi-billion dollar, highly competitive and dynamic industry. Success within this

growing industry requires a level of adaptability in order to allow the various sectors within, to

manage changing needs and requirements of customers.

Popular tourist destinations however, often have to adapt less because they have both natural,

human as well as cultural and historical features to attract visitors. Nevertheless, the most

sought after, economically successful destinations, owe their appeal for the most part, to

climate; and in particular, favourable weather conditions during the traditional holiday periods.

Consequently, it is possible; that in the future, Climate Change may alter seasonal tourism by

improving or worsening climatic conditions at destinations, on a global scale (Amelung et al

2007).

Patterns in tourism are driven by the individual needs and circumstance of each tourist (EU

Commission 2014). Therefore, it needs to be understood, that if one particular location

becomes unsuitable as a result of climatic change, the choices made by tourists are; either not

travel or to try elsewhere. This scenario is a prime example of how a changing climate impacts

patterns of global tourism and why climate will become the driving force behind future tourism

patterns.

The focus of this report is to evaluate the potential impacts of Climate Change on Global

tourism. This will include possible changes to destination choice and will cover the following key

questions:

• Will attitudes towards Climate Change affect the way people travel in the future?

• In what ways will Climate Change cause the appeal of destinations to increase,

decrease or be removed all together?

• How will Climate Change affect the availability, nature and safety of future

transport? Does this impact upon tourism patterns?

• Have changes in international climate policy impacted patterns of global tourism

and how could future Governmental Organisation and Non-Governmental

Organisational intervention cause further change?

1.0 Introduction

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2.0 Assignment Rationale

At the start of this report, it was decided that although a great deal of research and

literature had been undertaken on Climate Change and tourism, many previous reports

had focused on smaller aspects within this topic; such as decision making and the future of

aviation. Group discussion led to a joint decision to produce a report which would give a

more general overview on the effects of Climate Change on tourism and in particular,

patterns of global tourism.

The topic question was chosen unanimously by the group due to its open-ended nature

and because of its very real existence in modern day society. Indeed, every member of the

group was able to relate more to this topic than the others available. The question,

although considered challenging at the beginning, proved to initiate the most topic interest

within the group and the desire to investigate it further.

3.0 Methodology

A mixed methods strategy was adopted for this study; there were several initial stages of

data collection, analysis and investigation. This data, once collected was discussed and

collated during a series of group meetings. Action plans were used throughout the process

to assign group members research tasks which were given deadlines to ensure a smooth,

cohesive flow to the construction of the report.

Initial research was done individually in order to obtain a fast, but comprehensive

summary of the topic question. Latterly, more in-depth research took place finding more

concise, accurate information from a wider variety of sources which included; peer-

reviewed journals, books, news articles and government reports.

Once all the source-based materials had been collected, each member on the group began

to write up their own individually assigned sections. Drafts were initialling formulated and

shared between members of the group for that proof-reading and editing. The report was

later formatted and written fully, once all edits had been made.

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4.1 In what ways will

Climate Change cause

the appeal of some

destinations to

increase, decrease or

be removed all

together?

(KNF Travel 2013)

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4.1.1 How will rising sea levels impact on the appeal of tourism destinations?

Rising sea levels promise to affect the tourism value of a considerable amount of low lying and

island destinations. One popular tourist region, the Maldives, is particularly vulnerable to sea level

rise. Predictions have shown that a 0.49 meter rise in sea level would result in a sizeable proportion

of the Islands’ land mass including 15% of the Islands’ capital city, Malé, being submerged by 2100

(Gagain 2012). Currently, the majority of the 74 island hotels which typify the region, are situated at

elevations lower than 1.5m above sea level (ASL) (Viner and Agnew 1999). These hotels with white

sandy beaches and vast coral formations which spread throughout the region are the main pull

factors and why over one million tourists visited in 2012 (Welton 2012). However, primarily through

rising sea levels and flooding, visitor numbers are expected to decline sharply. The increased

frequency of island over wash, the dangers of salt water intrusion and coral bleaching may lead to

some islands becoming both uninhabitable and undesirable in the future (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999).

The Maldives provide just one example, however, there are many other areas where sea level rise

will damage tourism destinations. Coastal areas across the globe may suffer from increased flooding

and erosion and many island destinations for example, in the Caribbean as well as the Maldives, risk

complete submergence (Bosello et al 2004).

Historical cities too, such as Venice in Italy and Amsterdam, the Netherlands, are also expected to

be completely inundated following sea level rise and may prompt a decline in low altitude tourism.

This is highly likely to affect regions already susceptible to flooding and coastal over wash (Figure

1). Nevertheless, such sites may benefit in the short term from ‘Doom Tourism’ where tourists

strive desperately no matter what the cost to see destinations before they are destroyed as a result

of Climate Change (Hindley 2012).

4.1 In what ways will Climate Change cause the appeal of destinations to increase, decrease or be

removed all together?

Many different destinations offering diverse selections of tourist activities rely on climate to draw in

visitors and remain economically sustainable. ’Tourist industries depend on the quality of

environmental assets such as beaches, landscapes, climate and water; all have the potential to be

impacted by Climate Change’ (Holden, 2009; Bicknell and McManus 2006; Scott et al, 2006;

Pickering 2011). Climate Change promises to manifest its effects in many ways; temperature

change, rising sea levels and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Despite this, some

destinations may benefit from climate change, where weather conditions become more favourable,

attracting new visitors.

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Figure 1: Map showing Venice and the extent of sea level rise

following a one meter rise (Tingle 2013).

4.1.2 To what extent will rising temperatures cause the attraction of some European

destinations to improve or decline?

Temperature rise is another aspect of Climate Change which is likely to cause the appeal of some

destinations to vary. However, in contrast to sea level rise, rising temperatures have the

potential for both positive and negative impacts depending on location and current climate. One

obvious negative impact of temperature rise has already featured heavily in fragile mountain

environments such as the Alps and Pyrenees. These regions are classed as having temperate

climates however, due to high altitudes, they are cold enough in winter months to support

snowfall and glaciation. These two mountain ranges in particular, are popular with snow seeking,

winter sports enthusiasts (Gobiet et al 2014). Skiing and Snowboarding are heavily dependent on

snow cover, however, recently, the reliability of adequate snowfall has decreased. This is

especially common at resorts below 1400 meters. Since the 1980s, average minimum winter

temperature in the Alps has risen by 2 Degrees Celsius (Beniston 2005; Bogataj 2007). Given the

fragile nature of the mountain environment, this seemingly small rise in temperature has been

sufficient to cause a 50% decline in glacial volume whilst increasing the altitude of the average

snow line steadily, from its previous low point in 1983 (Uhlmann et al 2008). These impacts

coinciding with an increasingly unreliable snow cover have reduced the appeal of these

destinations.

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Figure 2: Visitor numbers of UK winter tourists 2007-2014

(Crystal Ski 2014).

This is especially true of UK tourists who in 2007/08 contributed 1.2 million ‘ski tourists’ (Crystal

Ski 2014). UK tourists, unlike their French or Swiss counterparts for example, do not have the

same luxury of short-term decision tourism. British tourists will typically book winter holidays

months in advance and usually during seasonal holidays such as Christmas and Easter. Climate

change though, is shortening ski seasons and making these two times of the year, less popular

given their positions in the calendar (Ski season typically runs between December and April).The

irregular nature of temperature and precipitation in these regions, at these times, could cause

further declines in winter tourism (Figure 2) (Unbehaun et al 2008).

Similarly, in central and southern parts of the Mediterranean, rising temperatures have the

potential to drastically reduce the appeal of some popular tourist hubs. Climate Change is

expected to increase mean summer temperatures by as much as 4 Degrees Celsius throughout

Europe (Chaouche 2010). This rise in mean temperature will, in traditionally warmer areas of

the Mediterranean, where maximum temperatures can exceed 40 Degrees Celsius in summer,

push temperature levels beyond threshold levels of human comfort (Boduch and Fincher 2009).

Moreover, longer periods of high pressure with more extreme warm days could make the

environment too warm for inbound tourists, many of whom come from milder climates in

Northern Europe. The consequences are likely to be severe, and could cause; heat stress, water

supply restrictions, forest fires, and urban smog (Viner 1999). Tourists may opt to travel out of

the typical summer seasons (Agnew and Viner 2001; Wall and Badke 1994) to avoid these issues

however, the possibility of desertification in southern and central Spain could suggest that in

the long-term these areas may become uninhabitable (Martínez-Fernández 2005) (Figure 3).

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In contrast, the previously milder climates of Northern Europe, Canada and Russia have been

predicted to become warmer and more favourable during summer months according to the

Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) (Roson and Sartori 2012). Although the potential implications of

Climate Change on Northern Europe are perhaps less well documented compared with the rest

of Europe, the general theory is that summers will become drier and warmer. Winters on the

other hand, will also become warmer but will receive significantly more amounts of precipitation

as well as extreme, more varied weather. The TCI has shown that whilst climate in Northern

Europe will become more favourable in the summer season, it will be at the expense of Central

and Southern Europe. A study by Peseta (2009) concluded that in a 4 Degrees Celsius rise would

cause the average number of bed nights (visitor nights) to increase in all areas of Europe other

than Southern Europe. It is worth noting that Southern Europe which includes; the Spanish

Riviera, Southern Italy and Greece already accounts for over 50% of the total EU capacity of

tourist accommodation (Ciscar 2009).

The potential implications for tourism patterns in the Europe and the Mediterranean resulting

from rising temperatures are huge. European tourism accounts for 58% of worldwide tourism

(EU 2006) and therefore any changes caused by Climate Change will almost certainly be on a

global scale. The changing appeal of some destinations will have knock-on effects on tourism

flows, transport infrastructure and could also start a decline in seasonal tourism which has

dictated tourism patterns almost exclusively to date.

Figure 3: Change in annual and summer precipitation for 2071–2100 vs 1961–1990 (%) (EU

Commission 2013)

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Figure 4: Modelled future category 4 and

5 Hurricane tracks showing increased

frequency and increased landfall

predictions (Bender et al 2010).

4.1.3 How will the increased frequency of extreme weather events affect Caribbean tourism?

Extreme weather events are also becoming increasingly associated with climate change with

increased frequency often put down to global warming. There has been a general agreement

that changes in frequency of intense, extreme weather events are likely to have profound effects

on the tourism industry. Both the human and natural features of some destinations are likely to

be affected, and in particular, regions already prone to extreme weather.

The implications surrounding extreme weather events raise questions over tourist perceptions

and preferences. These often form the foundations of destination choice (Hu and Richie 1993;

Lohmann and Kaim 1999). Many of the most popular tourism regions; the Mediterranean and

the Caribbean often have very stable, seasonal climates which have become their primary assets.

However, climate change has the potential to compromise the primary advantage of a number of

tourist destinations and not just the Caribbean.

More varied and extreme weather will come in many forms however, most likely to impact on

tourism and especially summer tourism, will be the increase (or decrease) in; temperature,

precipitation and frequency of storm events. Since 1970, global temperatures have risen 0.7

Degrees Celsius causing a 4% in the moisture content increase of the atmosphere. The extra

moisture allows not only for more rain, but also more high intensity tropical storms. These

stronger storm systems, although expected to become more frequent, are unlikely to become

more intensive (Jackson 2002). Despite this, the projected increase in frequency, the future

landfall projections (Figure 4)and the media portrayal that these ‘disasters’ receive has already

begun to detract from destination image of the Caribbean. Tourists want reliable weather

conditions and so being caught up in a potentially dangerous tropical storm is not something

tourists want to risk when planning holidays. This is particularly worrying for the Caribbean

Islands where travel and tourism accounts for between 8-40% of GDP (Laframboise et al 2014)

contributing $81 Billion in 2014. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 for example, caused a 20% decline in

visitor numbers as tourists became more aware and chose alternative destinations (Granvorka

and Strobl 2014).

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(Bear Mountain 2014)

4.2 Will attitudes towards

Climate Change affect the

holiday decision making

processes?

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4.2.1 How will climate change impact the decision making processes involved in holiday

planning?

The changing views on climate change by tourists could cause tourism to transform should

holiday decisions become more environmentally conscious. 75% of UK residents said they

were aware of climate change and concerned about how their actions were contributing to it

(British Government, 2010). When do concerns formulate change?

A tourist’s choice of destination is often based on their expectations; whether it from

previous personal experience, reviews, or the experiences of friends and relatives. There are

a many attributes which contribute to a destination image and studies have been conducted

to ascertain the most frequently considered and applied attributes in decision making of

tourists. Gallarza et al identified in (2002) that climate was only the seventh most frequently

used attribute whereas landscape and visuals were considered the most important features.

Lohmann and Kaim (1999) also concluded that although climate was important, destinations

were often chosen in regardless of climate and the likelihood of bad weather. The

fundamental ways in which climate change will act upon tourism (As listed in section 4.1) will

almost certainly change the current order of these attributes, with weather and climate

expected to become the predominant features of touristic planning.

Moreover, an increased climate awareness within the global community has begun to fashion

change in how people plan their holidays and the decisions involved. A study by the Guardian

newspaper in (2007) found from the respondents that took part; 13% had stopped air travel

altogether whilst 34% had reduced short haul flights and 31% had reduced long haul flying.

Furthermore the report also identified that 29% had begun to use carbon-offset schemes as a

way to nullify the impacts of travel during holidays.

However, Anable et al (2006) suggested that only 1/3 of all UK residents accepted air travel as

a cause of climate change. It suggests that the decision of tourists to use air travel as a major

form of transport is set to continue. This is further supported by Cohen and Higham (2011)

who have recognised that there is a general unwillingness to accept personal responsibility

for climate change. Either people are not aware of the effects that tourism is having on

climate change or people are aware but choose to deny it. Research has shown that this

strong resistance is unlikely to deter holidaymakers from holiday patterns or transport

choices, despite a number of alternatives being available (Hares 2013)

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4.2.2 Will the nature and concept of the ‘holiday’ be impacted by climate change?

The concept of the holiday has evolved significantly from its origins to the social norms of

today. The continual development of the aviation industry from 1960-present has been one

of the fundamental changes to the nature of holidays and how people conceive them.

Today, many tourists no longer see it acceptable to go on holiday in their home nations.

Instead, many would much rather travel abroad in search of exotic climates and make use of

the newly affordable jet-set lifestyle. 58.5million people from the UK travelled abroad in

2013, 20% percent of who, flew to Spain for recreational purposes (Rhodes 2015). This

statistic demonstrates how far the social norms have changed, especially in the last 20 years

since air travel has become available to not just the rich elite.

However, this new reliance on aviation is causing a significant problem for lower-carbon

tourism in the future. One solution which has been put forward has been ‘Slow Travel’. This

is new idea derived from past travel patterns, where people avoid the use of air and car

transport and instead choose the option to travel to destinations more slowly overland and

to stay longer. Slow travel, which could be a consequence of the ‘Price and Privilege’

scenario in Table 2, promotes the idea of rediscovering the pleasure of the journey, an

important aspect of past tourism before commercial aviation (Mintel 2009). Studies have

shown that ‘Slow Tourism’ could have serious potential in Europe in America where the

majority of tourist trips are of short to medium distance. In spite of this, the idea is not

economically viable until sufficient infrastructure is put in place (Dickenson et al 2010).

predicted in the holiday decision making processes made by tourists However, there arre

4.2.3 Is there a future for Eco-tourism?

Many holidaymakers are still keen to travel abroad but perceptions of purpose and ‘real

costs’ of travel are changing. ‘What you are doing is more important than where you are’

could be the view tourism takes as Climate Change intensifies. Eco-tourism is one possible

solution however, it is not likely to radicalise tourism across the globe. It has however, been

a growing phenomenon, mainly dominated by western countries but recently adapted and

used extensively in many other parts of the world. Although not necessarily a standard

form of tourism, it instead is an alternative which provides environmental friendly tourism

and a form of education for any tourist visitors. The purposes of eco-tourism include; to

raise the public awareness of the environment, to inform travellers of nature processes

(Whiteman 1996) and to reduce the negative human impacts on natural areas (Sirakaya and

McLellan 1998).

One could argue that there won’t be much of a natural environment left after the added

devastation and further climate change. Therefore ecotourism could be seen to provide a

refreshing, yet short term, form of tourism which provides both sustainability and

conservation value whilst providing empowerment of host communities. If more tourists

strive to make an effort to conserve when making holiday decisions, more of the

environment will have a chance to survive for the future generations and ecotourism could

potentially be a new trend in global tourism.

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4.3 How will Climate Change affect

the availability, nature and

safety of future transport? Does

this impact upon tourism

patterns?

(Neville 2007)

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4.3.1 How will tourist perspectives on transport and travel change as a result of Climate

Change?

The attitudes of tourists towards their transport choices are likely to change as the effects of

climate change become more and more noticeable. Whether these attitudes allude to a

change in decision making and transport choice is something altogether different. Tourists

have become far more aware of implications resulting from transport and travel on the

environment over the last decade. However, serious limitations of alternative transport

modes have inhibited change and stunted growth in other transport sectors (Papatheodorou

et al 2012). Perhaps this is the reason why alternative means such as rail, coach or private car

often lack demand because they take too long or are too expensive when compared to air

travel.

The USA good example of this as although there were over 460million domestic trips (US

Travel Association 2011), ridership levels on trains has totalled a mere 17.2 Billion compared

to 400 billion in Europe, despite having the largest rail network in the world (International

Union of Railways Data 2011). Air travel is seen as the customary way to travel (Ferrell and

Hartline 2011) on holiday and until development of other forms of economically sustainable

transport is introduced, it will continue to dominate. At the same time, it will make tourist

attitudes seemingly irrelevant when it comes to transport choice.

4.3.2 What is the future of the Aviation Industry within tourism?

Aviation contributes between 3-5% of these emissions and yet, this figure will rise

simultaneously as the industry expands (Gossling and Peeters 2007). Emissions produced from

commercial aviation have never been compulsorily regulated and were, perhaps mistakenly,

not included in the Kyoto Protocol’s list of targets. As a result there has never been any need

for the industry to address emissions. In recent decades however, there has been some focus

on reducing the environmental impact of the industry. Emphasis has mainly been on

increasing aircraft efficiency by improving airframes, weight reduction, and use of more fuel

efficient engines as well as improved air transport management (Becken 2007).

Future action including; emission trading, taxing and charging has been put forward however,

the continued growth of the aviation industry means any changes made, are unlikely to

reduce overall usage nor affect the travel patterns of tourists in the immediate future.

However, Brons et al (2002) identified that increasing prices and taxation of airfares as part of

Climate Change mitigation would affect longer-haul, less price sensitive flights more in the

long term. The resulting impact could be huge on destinations such as the Caribbean and

North America and reduce demand in a region where 50% of tourism arrivals fly from Europe.

Looking forward, long-haul tourism is expected to decline however, short-haul tourism,

including the use of smaller aircraft, private car and rail transport will rise, but only once the

infrastructure is developed. This could give way to ‘Slow Travel’ as previously mentioned.

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4.3.3 How will transport adapt to changing weather conditions caused by Climate Change?

Modern day transport and transportation systems are built to withstand typical weather

patterns that reflect local climate, geology and geography. They are built to function within a

reasonable range of temperatures, precipitation and other climatic conditions (Transportation

Research Board 2008). Since Climate Change has become the largest factor in transport design

and infrastructure planning (Schmidt and Meyer 2008), the effects it has on transportation

networks have become more understood. Transport is most likely to be impacted in areas

where the changing climate causes conditions to spread out of the operation range at which

systems are designed for (Becken 2010). The effects will vary between transport type and

destination however, in some locations Climate Change is expected to drastically impact and

later force radical changes to transportation.

Operationally, Climate Change is expected to increase the number of delays and cancelations.

Air travel, the driving force of modern day tourism patterns is, for example, easily brought to a

standstill in high winds, heavy precipitation and extremes in temperature. Although modern

day aircraft are now far more robust and capable in extreme weather, the changing nature of

the climate is frequently severe enough to take aircraft beyond their limitations (Gossling and

Upham 2012). Grounded flights, delays and cancelations are expected to become increasingly

common. There is the potential for heavy disruption in regions which experience extreme

weather events. North America, the Caribbean and large parts of Asia are vulnerable, and the

increased threat on the transport networks feeding and servicing these destinations may

reduce demand should extreme weather become more frequent (Koetse and Rietveld 2009).

A full description of the potential impacts of Climate Change on transport is shown in Table 1.

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Potential Climate Change Examples of Impacts on Operations

Examples of Impacts on Infrastructure

Increases in very hot days and heat waves

• Impact on lift-off load limits at high-altitude or hot weather airports with insufficient runway lengths, resulting in flight cancellations and/or limits on payload (i.e., weight restrictions) • Limits on periods of construction activity due to health and safety concerns

Thermal expansion on bridge expansion joints and paved surfaces • Concerns regarding pavement integrity (e.g., softening), traffic-related rutting, migration of liquid asphalt • Rail-track deformities

Increases in Arctic temperatures

Longer ocean transport season and more ice-free ports in northern regions • Possible availability of a northern sea route or a northwest passage

Thawing of permafrost, causing subsidence of roads, rail beds, bridge supports (cave-in), pipelines, and runway foundations • Shorter season for ice roads

Rising sea levels, combined with storm surges

• More frequent interruptions to coastal and low-lying roadway travel and rail service due to storm surges • More severe storm surges, requiring evacuation and/or changes in development patterns • Potential for closure or restrictions at several of the top 50 airports that lie in coastal zones, affecting service to the highest-density populations in the United States

Inundation of roads, rail lines, and airport runways in coastal areas • More frequent or severe flooding of underground tunnels and low-lying infrastructure • Erosion of road base and bridge supports • Reduced clearance under bridges • Changes in harbour and port facilities to accommodate higher tides and storm surges

Increases in intense precipitation events

Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptions • Increased flooding of evacuation routes • Increases in airline delays due to convective weather

Increases in flooding of roadways, rail lines, subterranean tunnels, and runways • Increases in road washout, damages to rail-bed support structures, and landslides and mudslides that damage roadways and tracks • Increases in scouring of pipeline roadbeds and damage to pipelines

More frequent strong hurricanes (Category –5

More frequent interruptions in air service • More frequent and potentially more extensive emergency evacuations • More debris on roads and rail lines, interrupting travel and shipping

Greater probability of infrastructure failures • Increased threat to stability of bridge decks • Impacts on harbour infrastructure from wave damage and storm surges

Table 1: Potential Climate Changes and Illustrative Impacts on Transportation (Transportation

Research Board 2008)

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4.4 Have changes in international

climate policy impacted

patterns of global tourism and

how could future

Governmental Organisation

(GO) and Non-Governmental

Organisational (NGO)

intervention cause further

change?

United Nations 2011

19

4.4.1 What has been the effect of new legislation and regulations within aviation on

tourism patterns?

Attempts aimed at making tourism more environmentally sustainable have seen a boost

in recent years. Both the Davos and Bali conferences highlighted the need to reduce the

impact of transport within tourism and in particular, aviation. Aviation represents 40%

of emissions produced from the tourism sector alone (UNWTO 2007), so improving

aircraft efficiency has been a priority for airlines and aircraft manufacturers. The Group

for International Aviation and Climate Change (GIACC) are one of many groups devoted

to improving aircraft efficiency, by finding alternative fuels and reducing emissions. The

group is supported by the United Nations and since working together with the two

major aircraft designers, Boeing and Airbus, whilst following the Federal Aviation

Regulations, progress has been made. The fuel efficiency of domestic flights fuel

efficiency has improved by 40% since 2000, with long haul flights improving by 17%

(Peeters et al 2005). Figure 5 demonstrates these changes predicted for two modern

day aircraft in comparison to previous models along with current projections for the

future. With this in mind, the improvements made in air transport and logistics have not

negatively impacted global tourism patterns. Instead, the introduction of newer,

modern, more fuel efficient aircraft have promoted, new tourism patterns altogether

(WTO 2012). Adaptations introduced to reduce the impact of the aviation on Climate

Change and the liberalisation of the industry have inadvertently allowed Airlines to take

advantage of legal loopholes and expand further (Wild 2014). In Europe, budget

carriers, such as Ryanair and Easy jet have been the main beneficiary’s as although

global legislation regarding aircraft design exists, there are no restrictions on fleet size.

Therefore, although efficiency has increased, so have the overall emissions produced,

meaning that any legislation is effectively cancelled out (Gossling and Peeters 2007).

Figure 5: Fuel efficiency of long haul

aircraft (Peeters et al 2005)

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4.4.2 Is GO or NGO involvement likely to have any impact on tourism patterns?

Governments are already planning targets for the future to reduce emissions. Ever

since the Djerba Conference in 2003, and the subsequent Davos Conference in 2007,

GO’s such as the UNWTO have strived to implement policy on climate change and

tourism. The Davos Declaration, a framework on how to make tourism more

sustainable, is one example. The Bali conference in 2007 was the start of in-depth

discussions on new policy. However, despite awareness increasing, these conferences

have merely offered suggestions on how to combat Climate Change. Due to limited

new legislation targeted at tourism, there has been very little action to date to

implement proposals.

The Kyoto protocol initially intended to end in 2012 has now been extended to 2020

following the 2011 UNFCCC Conference in Durban, South Africa whilst alternatives were

drafted (Selin 2014). However, it is more common for Governments; globally, nationally

and regionally to support the actions of NGOs. One example, Forum for the Future, has

outlined further suggestions in its ‘Tourism 2023’ report which includes four key

scenarios (Table 2) designed to help UK outbound tourism better understand its

position and plan for the future. These have been produced in order to explore the

perilous uncertainties facing the industry and offers insight into possible futures

(Kennedy 2009). The report, supported by travel giants, Thomas Cook and TUI, could

kick-start changes in tourism policy. The scenarios look to explore the varying directions

in which tourism could develop and how companies can look to develop sustainably, in

a manner which reflects the wider impacts of their services (Kennedy 2009; Travel

Weekly 2009; ABTA News 2009).

On a more global scale, the United Nations regularly host the annual Department Public

Information/Non-Governmental Organization Conference. The 65th meeting in which

various NGO's met to urge for the 'strongest possible' action on the future of Climate

Change was perhaps the most significant to date. The UN declared that the resulting

document was shaped purely by the demands of NGOs. This is further evidence to

show that NGO's have the power to shape future policy (UN 2014).

21

Boom and Burst A booming UK economy and extensive improvements in transport technology has fuelled growth in global travel. People travel more frequently, longer distances and at faster speeds than ever before. There are many new reasons to travel abroad however, many question how long this can be maintained.

Dived Disquiet Travelling overseas is fast becoming an unattractive proposition. A combination of devastating Climate Change impacts, resource wars and social unrest has created an insecure and fearful global environment. Security is tight and travel is time-consuming and inefficient. Many tourists are becoming more and more selective which is constituting a very small choice of global destinations. UK tourists are beginning to think travelling abroad makes problems worse.

Price and Privilege High oil prices have made travel too expensive for the majority of tourists. Cost is now the primary concern for tourists. Although a small, elite select continues to fly, the vast majority, simply cannot afford the experience. There have been mass redundancies made across the travel industry and the affordability of overland routes has led to radical restructuring.

Carbon Clampdown Carbon quotas have been introduced to all UK citizens as part of the government’s brave attempts to tackle Climate Change. The public has sought tough action as environmental impacts are increasingly felt. Holidaymakers are highly sensitive to the impacts of their travel and seek ethical experiences that are within their carbon budget. Holidaying in Britain is back in fashion and has soared in popularity.

Table 2: Tourism 2023 Scenarios

(Travel Weekly, 2009; Kennedy 2009)

22

5.0 Summary and Conclusions

Following an extensive review of literature and the finalising of this report, it is evident

that Climate Change will impact future tourism and that the industry should be deeply

concerned about the potential implications. The biggest worry the industry is likely to

have in the coming years is the sheer numbers of ways Climate Change will manifest its

effects.

Rising temperatures, sea level rise and extreme weather are the fundamental ways in

which Climate Change will impact on tourism. The effects are likely to be predominantly

negative in areas already popular with tourism. However, some positive impacts may

be expected in regions not currently considered the most favourable, according the

Tourism Climatic Index.

One huge problem for tourism is the lack of feasible options for adaption and mitigation

strategy. This is not helped by a lack of personal acceptance of both tourists and the

industry that typically shift blame onto governments or larger corporations. What is

evident however, is the need for change; both in tourist attitudes and in the

infrastructure which binds the industry together. Without change existing tourism

patterns are likely to dissolve which this could lead future tourism into something of

the unknown.

23

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28

Action Plan 1:

Title of enquiry: Evaluate How Climate Change Impacts upon Patterns of Global Tourism

Start date of action plan: 20th February 2015

End date of action plan: 6th March 2015

Names of group members: Josh, Kyran, Joe, Maddie

Number Action description Responsibility Deadline Outcome

1

Meet in the library – Do one large

brain-storming session

Kyran, Maddie, Joe

and Josh

24th February Completed 5th March

2

Scope Question – What are the

Patterns of Tourism?

Kyran, Maddie, Joe

and Josh

24th February Completed 24th February

3

Plan paragraph sections –Key

Questions

Kyran, Maddie, Joe

and Josh


4

Assign names to plan

Kyran, Maddie, Joe

and Josh


5

Find comprehensive list of sources

and list why they are useful

Kyran, Maddie, Joe

and Josh

6th March Completed 6th March

6

Complete Introduction Josh 28th February Ongoing (Completed 6th May)

29

Action Plan 2:


Start date of action plan: 6th March 2015

End date of action plan: 20th March 2015



1

Read ‘Success in Group-work’ and

‘Reading and Making Notes’

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh

11th March 19th March (Ongoing)

2

Read through source based

material and make further notes

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh


3

Add detailed notes to plan

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh


30

Action Plan 3:


Start date of action plan: 20th March 2015

End date of action plan: 24th April 2015



1

Draft individual sections;

longhand and properly cited

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh

27th March Completed by Josh, Kyran and

Maddie: 27th March

Joe: Ongoing

2

Email draft sections to members

of the group

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh

27th March Completed by Josh, Kyran and

Maddie: 27th March

Joe: Ongoing

3

Make edits on drafts and email

back to the group

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh

13th April Completed by Josh, Kyran and

Maddie: 27th March

Joe: Ongoing

4

Do more thorough reading of

sources looking at peer-reviewed

journals

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh


Maddie: 13th April

Joe: Ongoing

5

Make further notes following this

further reading/research

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh


Maddie: 13th April

Joe: Ongoing

6

Write up notes into draft with

edits

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh


Maddie: 24th April

Joe: Ongoing

31

Action Plan 4:


Start date of action plan: 24th April 2015

End date of action plan: 8th May 2015



1

Complete draft and citations

Joe 28th April Ongoing/Incomplete

2

Write up corrections and edits

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh

1st May Completed by Josh, Kyran and

Maddie: 1st May

Joe: Ongoing

3

Book a booth in the library to

begin final construction of report

Kyran, Maddie,

Joe and Josh

1st May Completed by Josh, Kyran and

Maddie: 1st May

Joe: Did not attend

4

Write Conclusion

Josh 1st May Completed 1st May

32

Action Plan 5:


Start date of action plan: 8th May 2015

End date of action plan: 11th May 2015



1

Cut down work count by 400 words.

Kyran and Josh 8th May Completed 8th May

2

Label Abstract

Josh 8th May Completed 8th May

3

Action Plans to be typed up and included on report

Josh 8th May Completed 8th May

4

More sources required in Joe’s, Kyran’s and Maddie’s sections,

Kyran, Joe and Maddie

11th May Completed 11th May

5

Contact Maddie and Joe – Instruct them what to do next

Kyran and Josh 11th May Completed 9th May

6

Meet 9am on Monday 11th Kyran, Maddie, Joe and Josh

11th May Completed 11th May

33

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