© Crown copyright 2005 Page 1 EuroRISK PREVIEW Windstorms Workpackage Ken Mylne, Met Office
Jan 28, 2016
© Crown copyright 2005 Page 1
EuroRISK PREVIEW Windstorms Workpackage
Ken Mylne, Met Office
© EURORISK consortium
Eurorisk PREVIEW
Project overview
© EURORISK consortium
PREVIEW in some words
A project funded by the European Commission 23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted
New information services to help risk management Gathering users needs Using the most advanced research and technology Validation on operational platforms
58 partners from 15 nations Scientists Operators Industrial companies End Users
45 months performance schedule and yearly budget reviews
© EURORISK consortium
FIRES
Atmospheric Risks services
© INSA
FLOODS
WINDSTORMS© Meteo France JRC
© EURORISK consortium
Geophysical risk services
Landslides
Earthquake and Volcanoes
© EURORISK consortium
Man made Risk services- Engineering
- Industrial accidents
General Services
- Assets Mapping
- Damages estimates
- Damages observation
© EURORISK consortium
Windstorms Workpackage
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Components of Package
Risk Mapping – Return Periods/ climatology
Best Practise Probability Forecasts (Day 10 – Day 1)
Civil Protection Response (Demonstration)
Downscaling to Local Impacts
Training and Awareness
Warnings related to return periods/ normal risks
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Risk Mapping
Lead: SMHI
Task: Map return periods Estimate climatology
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Best Practise Probability Forecasts
Ensemble Forecast inputs: Medium-Range (3-10 days)
ECMWF ARPA-SIM (COSMO-LEPS) (Days 3-5)
Short-Range (1-2 days) – multi-model ensemble consisting of contributions from:
Meteo-France - PEACE DWD - SRNWP-PEPS Met.no - TEPS/LAM EPS Met Office - LAMEPS/EPS
Post-processing…
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Site-specific Ensemble Forecasts
Ensemble forecasts will be collected and post-processed on a site-specific basis:Utilise existing technology/capabilityAllows bias correction and calibrationReduced data volumes for international exchangeAids combination of multiple forecast inputs in
common formatDisadvantage:
Risk of strongest winds falling between site locationsHi-resolution models and nowcasts add detail in
short-range
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Products for the Risk Manager
Plot of ensemble spread
0%
100%
Prob
Probability graph for multiple severity thresholds
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Additional short-range forecasts
Met.no - hi-res downscaling (complex terrain) Met Office – hi-res downscaling Met Office – wind nowcasting
12 km (Part Domain)
2 km
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Warnings/Downscaling
Lead: SMHI
Contributors: SRSA
Task: Relate forecast probs
to return periods Downscale to identify
impact hazards
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EMMA Website - for display of warnings
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Training & Awareness
Workshop topics: Uncertainty Best practice
forecasting Risk management How to get best
value for specific users
Lead: SMHI
Contributors: SRSA, Met O
Task: Train end-users
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Civil Protection Response
Demonstrate warnings and (potential) responses
Assess impact compared to traditional methods
Lead: SRSA
Contributors: All
Task: Demonstrate
application of warnings in Civil Defence
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Tasks Lead Contributors
Risk Mapping
Probability Forecasts
Civil Protection Demo
Downscaling
Training
Warnings
MetO
SMHI
SMHI
SMHI
SMHI
SRSA
SRSA
ECMWF, M-F, met.no, DWD, SMHI
SRSA, MetO
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Summary
Risk Mapping – Return Periods/ climatology
SMHI, IMK
Best Practise Probability Forecasts
MetO, ECMWF, M-F, Met.no, DWD, SMHI
Civil Protection Response (Demonstration)
SRSA
Downscaling to Local Impacts
SMHI, SRSA
Training and Awareness
SMHI, SRSA, MetO
Warnings related to return periods/ normal risks
SMHI
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Accreditation
WAFCWorld Area Forecast Centre
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Questions & Answers