www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected]| @commonslibrary BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 7639, 29 June 2016 European Union Referendum 2016 By Elise Uberoi Contents: 1. The referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU 2. Results 3. Characteristics associated with votes for Leave and Remain 4. Turnout 5. Opinion polls 6. Timeline of key events 7. Previous referendums 8. Data tables
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European Union Referendum 2016 · 2016-09-20 · a national referendum on European Union (EU) membership, framed on an in/out question, during the next Parliament. Shortly after the
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1. The referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU 4
2. Results 5 2.1 Analysis of results by counting region (including Northern
Ireland) 9 2.2 Analysis of results by counting area 10
In the East 11 In the East Midlands 12 In London 12 In the North East 13 In the North West 13 In Scotland 14 In the South East 14 In the South West and Gibraltar 15 In Wales 15 In the West Midlands 16 In Yorkshire and the Humber 16 In constituencies in Northern Ireland 17
2.3 Spoilt ballot papers 17
3. Characteristics associated with votes for Leave and Remain 18
3.1 Voting behaviour 19 3.2 Highest qualification and age 20 3.3 Socio-economic indicators and immigration 21 3.4 Rural and urban 22
4. Turnout 24 4.1 Relationships between turnout and age, and Leave votes? 26 4.2 The weather 26
5. Opinion polls 27
6. Timeline of key events 28
7. Previous referendums 29
8. Data tables 30 8.1 England 30 8.2 Wales 37 8.3 Scotland 38 8.4 Northern Ireland 39
Contributing authors Paul Bolton (the weather) Matt Keep (maps) Richard Keen and Feargal McGuiness (data)
Cover page image copyright: Verification underway, by Epping Forest District Council. Licensed by CC 2.0 / image cropped.
Summary In a UK wide referendum on 23 June 2016, voters were asked if they wanted the UK to remain a member of the European Union (EU) or leave the European Union.
• There were 17.4 million votes for ‘Leave’ (51.9%).
• There were 16.1 million votes for ‘Remain’ (48.1%).
• Votes for Leave and Remain were not evenly distributed across the UK. Leave won the highest share of the vote in England and Wales, while Remain won the highest share in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
• Out of the 12 counting regions (including Northern Ireland),1 nine recorded more than 50% of the vote for Leave, and three recorded more than 50% of the vote for Remain.
• The highest vote share for Leave (76%) was recorded in Boston (Lincolnshire). The highest vote share for Remain (96%) was recorded in Gibraltar.
• The proportion of people in a local authority who voted Leave was strongly related to the proportion that voted for UKIP in the 2014 European Parliament election, and to the proportion of non-graduates. Relationships between Leave votes and other selected socio-economic indicators were weaker at local authority level.
• In England, urban areas were more likely to record higher vote shares for Remain than rural areas. High vote shares for Leave, however, were found in both urban and rural areas.
• Turnout was 72.2% across the UK. This was higher than at the 2015 General Election (66.2%) but lower than turnout at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum (84.6%).
• The highest turnout was recorded in Gibraltar (83.5%) and the lowest in Lagan Valley (Northern Ireland) (48.9%). The highest turnout (83.5%) in the UK was recorded in Chiltern (Buckinghamshire).
1 Northern Ireland was a counting area rather than a counting region but due to its
size, and the fact that data has been released by constituencies within Northern Ireland, it is included in the discussion of regions.
4 European Union Referendum 2016
1. The referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU
On Thursday 23 June 2016, a referendum was held across the UK on the question:
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
51.9% of votes were to leave the EU.
The referendum was first announced by Prime Minister David Cameron on 23 January 2013. He said that if a Conservative Government was elected to power following the General Election of 2015, it would hold a national referendum on European Union (EU) membership, framed on an in/out question, during the next Parliament.
Shortly after the election, the new Conservative Government introduced the European Union Referendum Bill 2015-16, which provided for the referendum to be held before the end of 2017. The date for the referendum was set in regulations introduced in February 2016.
The franchise for the referendum was defined by the European Union Referendum Act 2015. It was based on the franchise used for UK Parliament elections, but additionally entitled Commonwealth citizens resident in Gibraltar and peers to vote.
Votes were counted in ‘counting areas’, which in most cases were local authorities with electoral registration responsibilities (single tier authorities and lower tier authorities in two tier areas). There were 382 counting areas: 380 in Great Britain, one in Northern Ireland and one in Gibraltar.
Votes were counted in eight locations in Northern Ireland but collated and declared as one result. Local results were collated for 11 counting regions, which were the same regions used for the European Parliament elections.
The Chief Counting Officer, Jenny Watson, who is the Chair of the Electoral Commission, declared the national result from the national referendum count event held in Manchester on Friday 24 May at 07:51.
Box 1: Results data
The results data used in this paper are as published by the Electoral Commission. Results by counting area and region are available to download from the Electoral Commission’s website, http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/upcoming-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information Other data used for analysis in this Briefing Paper are published (online) in the accompanying dataset.
The Parliamentary franchise includes British citizens, Irish citizens and qualifying Commonwealth citizens. British citizens living abroad can vote for up to 15 years after they were last registered in the UK.
2. Results A total of 33,577,342 people voted in the referendum, a turnout of 72.2%. The Leave vote won by a 3.8 percentage point margin.
The figures below show the total number of votes cast, and the national share of the vote, for Leave and Remain.
Votes for Leave and Remain were not evenly distributed across the UK. Leave won the highest share of the vote in England and Wales, while Remain won the highest share of the vote in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Within England, London was the only region where Remain won a majority.
The highest vote share for Leave (76%) was recorded in Boston (Lincolnshire). The highest vote share for Remain (96%) was recorded in Gibraltar.
2.1 Analysis of results by counting region (including Northern Ireland)
Leave won more than 50% of the vote in all counting regions except for three: London, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The West Midlands saw the highest share of the vote for Leave (59.3%), and Scotland the lowest (38.0%).
Turnout was highest in the South East, and the South West and Gibraltar (76.7%), and lowest in Northern Ireland (62.7%).
The figure below shows the net share of the vote for Leave in each counting region. The net share of the vote for Leave was highest in the West Midlands and lowest in Scotland.
Results by region, ranked by highest vote share for Leave
As the number of voters varies by region, not all regions contributed equally to the overall national result: regions where more votes were counted had a greater impact on the final outcome. The figure below shows the weight of the contribution each region made to the final result. The South East counted the highest number of votes overall, and also the highest number of both Leave and Remain votes.
2.2 Analysis of results by counting area Out of the 382 voting areas, 258 recorded a vote share for Leave that was higher than 50%. Leave won 60% or more of the vote in 105 of these counting areas, and 70% or more in 14 of them.
Remain won more than 50% of the vote in 115 counting areas. 46 of these recorded a Remain vote share of 60% or more, and 16 counting areas (10 of which in London) recorded a Remain vote share of 70% or more.
The table below shows the highest level of support for Leave and Remain across all counting areas (including constituencies in Northern Ireland).
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%
Northern Ireland
North East
Wales
Scotland
East Midlands
London
Yorkshire and the Humber
South West and Gibraltar
West Midlands
East of England
North West
South East
Regional results as share of the national vote
Note: in this chart, 100% equals the sum of Leave plus Remain votes across all regions
LeaveRemain
Highest share of the vote for Leave and Remain
1 Boston 75.6% 1 Gibraltar 95.9%
2 South Holland 73.6% 2 Lambeth 78.6%
3 Castle Point 72.7% 3 Hackney 78.5%
4 Thurrock 72.3% 4 Foyle 78.0%
5 Great Yarmouth 71.5% 5 Haringey 75.6%
6 Fenland 71.4% 6 City of London 75.3%
7 Mansfield 70.9% 7 Islington 75.2%
8 Bolsover 70.8% 8 Wandsworth 75.0%
9 East Lindsey 70.7% 9 Camden 74.9%
10 NE Lincolnshire 69.9% 10 Edinburgh 74.4%
Top 10 counting areas voting Remain (%)
Top 10 counting areas voting Leave (%)
11 Commons Library Briefing, 29 June 2016
The vote was close (with either Leave or Remain winning by a margin of between 0 and 5 percentage points) in 75 counting areas. The most frequent margin was a 5-10 percentage point lead for Leave, which was recorded in 48 counting areas.
In the East In the East, Castle Point recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Cambridge for Remain. Out of the 46 counting areas in the East, 5 recorded a vote share higher than 50% for Remain.
Turnout was highest in St. Albans (82%), and lowest in Luton (66%).
0 10 20 30 40 50
-55 to -50%
-50 to -45%
-45 to -40%
-40 to -35%
-35 to -30%
-30 to -25%
-25 to -20%
-20 to -15%
-15 to -10%
-10 to -5%
-5 to 0%
0%
0 to 5%
5 to 10%
10 to 15%
15 to 20%
20 to 25%
25 to 30%
30 to 35%
35 to 40%
40 to 45%
45 to 50%
50 to 55%
Number of counting areas
Net Leave vote (% points), number of counting areas
1 Castle Point 72.7% 1 Cambridge 73.8%2 Thurrock 72.3% 2 St Albans 62.7%
3 Great Yarmouth 71.5%3 South
Cambridgeshire 60.2%4 Fenland 71.4% 4 Norwich 56.2%5 Tendring 69.5% 5 North Hertfordshire 54.4%6 Basildon 68.6% 6 Watford 49.7%7 Harlow 68.1% 7 East Hertfordshire 49.6%8 Rochford 66.6% 8 Dacorum 49.3%9 King's Lynn and West
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (counting areas)
Leave Remain
12 European Union Referendum 2016
In the East Midlands In the East Midlands, Boston recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Rushcliffe for Remain. Leave won more than 50% of the vote in 38 out of the 40 counting areas in the East Midlands.
Turnout was highest in Derbyshire Dales (82%), and lowest in Nottingham (62%).
In London In London, Havering recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Lambeth for Remain. Leave won more than 50% of the vote in 5 out of the 33 counting areas in London.
Turnout was highest in Richmond upon Thames (82%), and lowest in Newham (59%).
1 Boston 75.6% 1 Rushcliffe 57.6%2 South Holland 73.6% 2 Leicester 51.1%3 Mansfield 70.9% 3 High Peak 49.5%4 Bolsover 70.8% 4 Rutland 49.4%5 East Lindsey 70.7% 5 Harborough 49.3%6 Ashfield 69.8% 6 Nottingham 49.2%7 Bassetlaw 67.8% 7 Derbyshire Dales 48.4%8 Corby 64.2% 8 Charnwood 46.2%
9 North East Derbyshire 62.8%9 South
Northamptonshire 45.7%10 Wellingborough 62.4% 10 Oadby and Wigston 45.4%
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (counting areas)
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (counting areas)
Leave Remain
13 Commons Library Briefing, 29 June 2016
In the North East In the North East, Hartlepool recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Newcastle upon Tyne for Remain. Remain won more than 50% of the vote in 1 out of the 12 counting areas in the North East.
Turnout was highest in Northumberland (74%), and lowest in Sunderland (65%).
In the North West In the North West, Blackpool recorded the highest vote share fore Leave, and Manchester for Remain. Remain won a vote share over 50% in 7 out of the 39 counting areas in the North West.
Turnout was highest in South Lakeland (80%), and lowest in Manchester (60%).
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (counting areas)
Leave Remain
14 European Union Referendum 2016
In Scotland In Scotland, Moray recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Edinburgh for Remain. Remain won the most votes in all counting areas in Scotland.
Turnout was highest in East Renfrewshire (76%), and lowest in Glasgow City (56%).
In the South East In the South East, Gravesham recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Oxford for Remain. Remain won more than 50% of the vote in 24 of the 68 counting areas in the South East.
Turnout was highest in Chiltern (83%), and lowest in Slough (62%).
1 Moray 49.9% 1 Edinburgh 74.4%2 Dumfries and
Galloway 46.9% 2 East Renfrewshire 74.3%3 Aberdeenshire 45.0% 3 East Dunbartonshire 71.4%4 Eilean Siar 44.8% 4 Stirling 67.7%5 Angus 44.7% 5 Glasgow City 66.6%6 Highland 44.0% 6 Renfrewshire 64.8%7 Shetland Islands 43.5% 7 East Lothian 64.6%8 Falkirk 43.2% 8 Inverclyde 63.8%9 North Ayrshire 43.1% 9 Orkney Islands 63.2%10 Clackmannanshire 42.2% 10 South Lanarkshire 63.1%
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (counting areas)
Leave Remain
1 Gravesham 65.4% 1 Oxford 70.3%
2 Dartford 64.2% 2 Brighton and Hove 68.6%
3 Medway 64.1% 3 Elmbridge 59.5%
4 Gosport 63.9% 4 Winchester 58.9%
5 Thanet 63.8% 5 Waverley 58.4%
6 Arun 62.5% 6 Reading 58.0%
7 Swale 62.5% 7 Vale of White Horse 56.7%
8 Havant 62.4% 8 Wokingham 56.7%
9 Shepway 62.2% 9 Guildford 56.2%
10 Dover 62.2% 10 Woking 56.2%
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (counting areas)
Leave Remain
15 Commons Library Briefing, 29 June 2016
In the South West and Gibraltar In the South West and Gibraltar, Torbay recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Gibraltar for Remain, followed by Bristol. Remain won more than 50% of the vote in 10 out of the 38 counting areas in the South West and Gibraltar.
Turnout was highest in Gibraltar (84%), and lowest in Bournemouth (69%).
In Wales In Wales, Blaenau Gwent recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Cardiff recorded the highest vote share for Remain. Leave won a vote share of over 50% in 17 out of the 22 counting areas in Wales.
Turnout was highest in Monmouthshire (78%), and lowest in Merthyr Tydfil (67%).
Somerset 57.9%4 Torridge 60.8% 4 Isles of Scilly 56.4%5 West Somerset 60.6% 5 Cheltenham 56.2%6 Plymouth 59.9% 6 Exeter 55.3%7 Purbeck 59.1% 7 Stroud 54.6%8 Christchurch 58.8% 8 South Hams 52.9%9 Forest of Dean 58.6% 9 Cotswold 51.1%10 Gloucester 58.5% 10 Mendip 51.1%
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (counting areas)
Leave Remain
1 Blaenau Gwent 62.0% 1 Cardiff 60.0%
2 Torfaen 59.8% 2 Gwynedd 58.1%
3 Wrexham 59.0% 3 Ceredigion 54.6%
4 Caerphilly 57.6% 4 Vale of Glamorgan 50.7%
5 Pembrokeshire 57.1% 5 Monmouthshire 50.4%
6 Neath Port Talbot 56.8% 6 Isle of Anglesey 49.1%
7 Merthyr Tydfil 56.4% 7 Swansea 48.5%
8 Flintshire 56.4% 8 Rhondda Cynon Taf 46.3%
9 Newport 56.0% 9 Powys 46.3%
10 Bridgend 54.6% 10 Carmarthenshire 46.3%
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (counting areas)
Leave Remain
16 European Union Referendum 2016
In the West Midlands In the West Midlands, Stoke-on-Trent recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Warwick for Remain. Leave won more than 50% of the vote in 29 out of the 30 counting areas in the West Midlands.
Turnout was highest in Wychavon (81%), and lowest in Birmingham (64%).
In Yorkshire and the Humber In Yorkshire and the Humber, North East Lincolnshire recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and York for Remain. Leave won more than 50% of the vote in 18 out of the 21 counting areas in Yorkshire and the Humber.
Turnout was highest in Craven (81%), and lowest in Kingston upon Hull (63%).
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (counting areas)
Leave Remain
17 Commons Library Briefing, 29 June 2016
In constituencies in Northern Ireland Northern Ireland was one counting area in the referendum, but results have been published at constituency level by the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland. North Antrim recorded the highest vote share for Leave, and Foyle for Remain. Leave won more than 50% of the vote in 7 out of the 18 constituency areas.
Turnout was highest in South Antrim (68%) and lowest in Lagan Valley (49%).
2.3 Spoilt ballot papers The proportion of spoilt ballot papers varied from 0.00% in the Isles of Scilly (where there were no spoilt ballot papers) to 0.24% in Leicester. 7 out of the 10 counting areas with the highest number of spoilt ballot papers were in London.
1 North Antrim 62.2% 1 Foyle 78.3%
2 Strangford 55.5% 2 Belfast West 74.1%
3 East Antrim 55.2% 3 Belfast South 69.5%
4 Lagan Valley 53.1% 4 South Down 67.2%
5 Upper Bann 52.6% 5 West Tyrone 66.8%
6 Belfast East 51.4% 6 Newry & Armagh 63.1%
7 South Antrim 50.6% 7 Mid Ulster 60.4%
8 Belfast North 49.6%8 Fermanagh & South
Tyrone 58.6%
9 East Londonderry 48.0% 9 North Down 52.4%
10 North Down 47.6% 10 East Londonderry 52.0%
Highest vote shares for Remain and Leave (constituencies)
3. Characteristics associated with votes for Leave and Remain
The referendum result suggests the UK is split almost down the middle on the issue of Europe. Polls before and after the referendum have attempted to analyse this split; who are the people who voted Leave and Remain? The analysis below shows there are clear relationships between the proportion of people in a local authority who voted Leave and the proportion voting UKIP in the 2014 European Parliament election, and between the proportion of Leave votes and the proportion of non-graduates. Weaker relationships exist between Leave votes and social grade, and immigration (where higher levels of immigration are associated with lower levels of Leave votes).
The Telegraph summarised pre-referendum polling findings that suggested associations between intentions to vote Leave and age (60+), political party support (UKIP), social grade (C2DE) and level of education (non-graduate). Conversely, polls also found associations between intentions to vote Remain and age (18-29), political party support (Green), social grade (ABC1) and level of education (graduate).2
Lord Ashcroft carried out a post-referendum poll that supports these suggestions.3 This poll also found that the main reason people gave for voting Leave was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. The main reason people gave for voting Remain was “the risks of voting to leave the EU looked too great when it came to things like the economy, jobs and prices”. People who voted Leave and Remain were also found to have opposing views on the desirability of developments like multiculturalism, social liberalism, feminism, and the internet.
Ballots are secret, but some of these polling findings are confirmed by the following analysis of the relationship between selected social characteristics and voting patterns, looking at their prevalence at local authority level.
Referendum results are not available at local authority level for Northern Ireland, and Census data is not available for Gibraltar; the analysis below focuses on Great Britain. Deprivation is analysed only in England: data on deprivation in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are not suitable for comparison.
2 ‘EU referendum: which type of person wants to leave, and who will be voting to
remain?’, The Telegraph, 22 June 2016, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/eu-referendum-which-type-of-person-wants-to-leave-and-who-will-b/
3 ‘How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday… and why’, Lord Ashcroft Polls, 24 June 2016, http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
Social grade is a widely used measure to classify the population on the basis of occupation. Grades ABC1 refer to people in professional and managerial roles; grades C2DE refer to people in skilled, semi- or non-skilled manual jobs, the unemployed, casual workers and pensioners.
The analysis uses Census data on age, highest qualification obtained and social grade. The Census is a ten-yearly population count that covers all people who are usually resident in the UK. It was last held in 2011. Data from Library Briefing Paper 14/32 European Parliament election 2014 is used to analyse voting behaviour. The Department for Communities and Local Government ranks local authorities in England in terms of how they perform on indices of deprivation, where 1 is the most deprived and 326 is the least deprived. This data is used to analyse deprivation. HMRC estimates of child poverty (August 2013) and households claiming tax credits (April 2016) – proportion calculated using the Annual Population Survey January-December 2014 – were used to analyse socio-economic background. The ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings provides information on median earnings by local authority, and the ONS Nomis claimant count dataset provides an estimate of the proportion of Job Seeker’s Allowance claimants by local authority (May 2016). ONS data is used for the proportion of population by country of birth by local authority (August 2015).
3.1 Voting behaviour The charts below show a strong relationship between the proportion of people who voted Leave and the proportion who voted for UKIP in the 2014 European Parliament election.4
A weaker relationship exists between the proportion of people in a local authority who voted for the Green Party in 2014 and the proportion voting Remain. Note that the proportion of people voting Green in any local authority did not exceed 24.5%.
No significant relationships exist between the proportion of people who voted for Labour or the Conservative Party and the proportion of people voting Leave. This suggests a split in the support base of these parties on the issue of the EU (and related topics).
4 The characteristics of people who vote UKIP are discussed in more detail in Library
Briefing Paper 5125 Membership of UK political parties and in Steven Ayres, Common Threads Among UKIP Voters, 2014, https://commonslibraryblog.com/2014/10/10/common-threads-among-ukip-voters/
Voting behaviour: voting patterns at the 2014 European Parliament elections and vote
shares for Leave (red) and Remain (blue)
3.2 Highest qualification and age The charts below show a strong correlation between the proportion of non-graduates in a local authority and the proportion voting Leave. The relationship between age and voting Leave or Remain was weak. Note that the proportion of people aged over 60 did not exceed 38% in any local authority. Likewise, the proportion of people aged 18-29 did not exceed 32% in any local authority.
21 Commons Library Briefing, 29 June 2016
Highest qualification and age and vote shares for Leave (red) and Remain (blue)
3.3 Socio-economic indicators and immigration
The charts below show a relationship between the proportion of people in social grade C2DE (manual and casual workers, the unemployed and pensioners) in a local authority and the proportion of people voting Leave.
A weaker (negative) relationship exists between the median weekly earnings in local authorities and the proportion of people voting Leave. There is no obvious relationship between the rank of a local authority in terms of deprivation and vote shares for Leave. There is a weak relationship between the proportion of households claiming tax credits in a local authority, and the proportion of people voting Leave.
A (negative) relationship exists between the proportion of the population that is foreign-born, an indication of immigration, and the vote share for Leave.5
5 Data on immigration is not available for Ryedale, Derbyshire Dales, Hinckley and
Bosworth, North Warwickshire, City of London, Isles of Scilly, West Somerset and Rossendale. These local authorities are excluded from the analysis.
22 European Union Referendum 2016
Socio-economic indicators: social grade, deprivation, earnings, tax credit claimants and
immigration, and vote shares for Leave (red) and Remain (blue)
There is no obvious relationship between the proportion of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance, and the proportion of people voting Leave in a local authority. Likewise, there is no obvious relationship between the proportion of children living in low income households in a local authority, and the proportion of people voting Leave.
This suggests that votes for Leave and Remain are not strongly related to this set of socio-economic indicators individually.
3.4 Rural and urban In England, urban areas recorded slightly higher vote shares for Remain than rural areas. High vote shares for Leave, however, were found in both rural and urban areas.
23 Commons Library Briefing, 29 June 2016
The Office for National Statistics has classified English local authorities into six groups according to their rurality: mainly rural (>80% rural), largely rural (>50% rural), urban with significant rural, urban with city and town, urban with minor conurbation, and urban with major conurbation.
Among the 144 local authorities in rural categories, 25 (17%) recorded a Remain vote share greater than 50%. 44 (31%) recorded a Leave vote of 60% or more.
Out of the 181 local authorities in the three urban classifications, 54 (30%) recorded a Remain vote share greater than 50%. 59 (33%) recorded a Leave vote share of 60% or more.
In the most urban category, Remain took over 50% of the vote in a higher number of local authorities (38 out of 75) than Leave (34 out of 75).
As the table below shows, high vote shares for Leave were found across local authority types.
Local authority ClassificationLeave
votes (%)Boston Urban with Significant Rural 75.6%South Holland Largely Rural 73.6%Castle Point Urban with City and Town 72.7%Thurrock Urban with Major Conurbation 72.3%Great Yarmouth Urban with Significant Rural 71.5%Fenland Largely Rural 71.4%Mansfield Urban with City and Town 70.9%Bolsover Urban with Significant Rural 70.8%East Lindsey Mainly Rural 70.7%NE Lincolnshire Urban with City and Town 69.9%
Top ten vote shares for Leave, by local authority type
4. Turnout Turnout across the UK was 72.2%. This was higher than turnout at the 2015 General Election (66.2%) and the most recent national referendum, on the introduction of the Alternative Vote electoral system, held in 2011 (42.0%). It was also higher than turnout at the previous referendum on the EU (then the EEC) in 1975 (64.0%). However, it was not as high as turnout at the Scottish independence referendum held in 2014 (84.6%).
Turnout at general elections was higher than the 2016 referendum turnout between 1950 and 1992, with the exception of 1970 (72.0%).
Across the UK, turnout in the referendum was 73.0% in England, 71.7% in Wales, 67.2% in Scotland, and 62.7% in Northern Ireland.
Among the counting regions, turnout was highest in the South East and the South West and Gibraltar (76.7%), and lowest in the North East (69.3%).
The table below shows turnout varied across local authorities in Great Britain and constituencies in Northern Ireland. Six out of the ten areas with the lowest turnout were in Northern Ireland.
Turnout by region, ranked highest to lowest
Counting region
Remain (% of valid votes)
Leave (% of valid votes)
Turnout (valid votes
as % of electorate) Electorate
South East 48.2% 51.8% 76.7% 6,465,404 South West and Gibraltar 47.4% 52.6% 76.7% 4,138,134 East of England 43.5% 56.5% 75.7% 4,398,796 East Midlands 41.2% 58.8% 74.1% 3,384,299 West Midlands 40.7% 59.3% 72.0% 4,116,572 Wales 47.5% 52.5% 71.7% 2,270,272 Yorkshire and the Humber 42.3% 57.7% 70.6% 3,877,780 North West 46.3% 53.7% 69.9% 5,241,568 London 59.9% 40.1% 69.6% 5,424,768 North East 42.0% 58.0% 69.3% 1,934,341 Scotland 62.0% 38.0% 67.2% 3,987,112 Northern Ireland 55.8% 44.2% 62.7% 1,260,955
United Kingdom 48.1% 51.9% 72.2% 46,500,001
Highest and lowest turnout, by counting area
1 Gibraltar 83.5% 1 Lagan Valley 48.9%
2 Chiltern 83.5% 2 Glasgow City 56.2%
3 Hart 82.6% 3 Belfast North 57.2%
4 St Albans 82.4% 4 Strangford 57.4%
5 Waverley 82.3% 5 Newham 59.2%
6 Mole Valley 82.1% 6 Manchester 59.7%
7 Richmond upon Thames 82.0% 7 Belfast East 59.7%
8 Derbyshire Dales 81.9% 8 North Lanarkshire 60.9%
9 Horsham 81.6% 9 North Down 61.6%
10 East Hampshire 81.6% 10 Foyle 61.7%
Top 10 highest turnout Top 10 lowest turnout
25 Commons Library Briefing, 29 June 2016
26 European Union Referendum 2016
4.1 Relationships between turnout and age, and Leave votes?
The charts below show that there was a weak relationship between the proportion of people aged over 60 in a local authority, and the proportion of people turning out to vote. There was no significant relationship between higher turnout levels and higher levels of support for Leave.
4.2 The weather There is no evidence to suggest weather impacts on turnout, but the link has long been the subject of speculation.
On 23 June 2016, there were thunderstorms overnight and into the morning, particularly in the South East of the country. These were accompanied by spells of particularly heavy rain which caused flash flooding in London and South East England. Polling stations in Kingston and Barking had to close due to flooding before new locations were found.
The wettest place in the country was South Farnborough where 55 mm or two inches of rain fell in the 24 hours to 2100 on 23 June.6 This was more than the average rainfall for the whole month in this region.7
Manston in Kent was the warmest at 25oC. Katesbridge in Northern Ireland the coldest with a minimum of 3oC.
5 June 1975, the date of the EC Membership referendum, was drier than 23 June 2016 and around 3oC cooler on average across the country.8
6 Met Office UK weather –last 24 hours (24 June 2016) 7 Met Office Hadley Centre Observation Data (UK precipitation series) 8 Based on daily England and Wales precipitation series and daily mean Central
England Temperature series; http://hadobs.metoffice.gov.uk/
5. Opinion polls Opinion polls tracking voting intentions for the EU referendum were regularly published from 4 September 2015 up until polling day.9 The chart below shows polling trends over this period (including all polls where fieldwork was carried out before the polling day). The trend lines show the average of the last ten polls (each individual set of poll findings is shown as dots).
Most polls published close to polling day suggested a Remain win, and YouGov’s polling day poll, based on a sample of people who had already voted, also predicted a 52% win for Remain.
Polling methodology had received media attention in the run up to the referendum, after opinion polls had suggested an outcome that differed from the actual result in the 2015 General Election. Before the referendum, commentators noted the difference between polling findings in online and telephone polls.10 The chart below shows how online and telephone polls suggested different levels of support for Leave between September 2015 and June 2016.
It is not clear whether online of phone polls provided a more reliable indication of the referendum result. However, it is clear that most polls got it wrong.
9 See What UK Thinks EU for details of all published polls. The Telegraph and BBC
News have published regularly updated poll-trackers. 10 See ‘Why the difference between phone and online in EU referendum polling’,
YouGov, 23 February 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16Source: BBC News EU referendum poll tracker, What UK Thinks
EU referendum polling data: % leave / remain/ don't know
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
September November January March May
Monthly polling averages for Leaveonline phone
Source: BBC News EU referendum poll tracker, What UK Thinks
Polling companies aim for samples that are representative of the population, and they weight their data to achieve more representative results. These methodological decisions impact on the polling information they publish.
6. Timeline of key events • 23 January 2013: Prime Minister David Cameron promised a
referendum if the Conservative Party were to win the next general election;
• During the 2013/14 and 2014/15 Sessions, Conservative MPs introduced Private Members Bills to introduce a referendum on EU membership based on a draft European Union (Referendum) Bill published by the Conservative Party on 14 May 2013;
• 27 May 2015: the European Union Referendum Bill was announced in the Queen’s Speech, and introduced the day after. It had its Second Reading on 9 June 2015 and received the Royal Assent on 17 December 2015;
• 7 September 2015: the referendum question was changed to ‘Should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union’, in line with the Electoral Commission’s recommendations;
• 19 February 2016: Prime Minister David Cameron completed his negotiations with the other EU countries to reform the UK’s relationship with the EU;
• 22 February 2016: regulations setting the date of the referendum (and other details) were laid before Parliament, and made on 3 March 2016;
• 13 April 2016: the Electoral Commission designated Vote Leave and The In Campaign as ‘lead campaign organisations’;
• 15 April 2016: the referendum period, during which controls applied to the campaign, started. The ‘purdah’ period, during which public bodies were restricted from publishing information related to the referendum, started on 27 May;
• 7 June 2016: the deadline to register to vote in the referendum. Following technical issues, it was extended to 9 June;
• 23 June 2016: polling day.
Lead campaign organisations are entitled to benefits including higher spending limits, public funding, and referendum broadcasts
7. Previous referendums The table below summarises referendums that have taken place in the UK since 1975 at a national or regional level. The table does not include referendums held at local authority level.
Summary of referendums since 1975
Subject of referendumRelevant area Date Outcome
Winning vote share Turnout
Continued membership of the European Community UK June 1975
UK remained in European Community 67.2% 64.0%
Devolution Scotland March 1979
Devolution did not proceed (threshold requirement not met) 51.6% 63.6%
Devolution Wales March 1979Devolution did not proceed 79.7% 58.8%
Devolution Scotland September 1997
Scottish Parliament established 74.3% 60.2%
Tax-varying powers for Scottish Parliament Scotland September 1997
Scottish Parliament given tax-raising powers 63.5% 60.2%
Devolution Wales September 1997
National Assembly for Wales established 50.3% 50.1%
Establishment of Greater London Authority London May 1998
Greater London Authority established 72.0% 34.0%
Good Friday AgreementNorthern Ireland May 1998
Support given for provisions of Agreement 71.1% 81.0%
Establishment of elected Regional Assembly
North East England November 2004
Elected Regional Assembly not established 77.9% 47.1%
Expansion of Welsh Assembly law making powers Wales March 2011
National Assembly for Wales given greater law making powers 63.5% 35.2%
Voting system UK May 2011
Alternative Vote system rejected 67.9% 42.0%
Scottish independence Scotland September 2014Independence rejected 55.3% 84.5%
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