INFORESTA Séminaire International sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France European Softwood Markets by Ed Pepke Forest Product Marketing Specialist Timber Branch Trade Development and Timber Division United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and Food and Agricultural Organization
European Softwood Markets. by Ed Pepke Forest Product Marketing Specialist Timber Branch Trade Development and Timber Division United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and Food and Agricultural Organization. Subjects of presentation. Overall market situation in 2004 Roundwood - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Softwood Markets
by Ed Pepke
Forest Product Marketing Specialist
Timber Branch
Trade Development and Timber Division
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
and Food and Agricultural Organization
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Subjects of presentation
• Overall market situation in 2004
• Roundwood
• Sawnwood
• Panels
• Certified forest products
• Timber Committee recommendations
• Outlook for softwood sector through 2010
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Highlights from Forest Products Annual Market Analysis, 2002-2004. 1/4
· Forest law enforcement, governance and trade policies are being developed as countries build partnerships to control illegal logging and the trade of forest products sourced from illegal harvesting.
• UNECE region forest products markets turned upwards in 2002, overcoming the dip in 2001, achieving some record levels.
• Certified forest area worldwide extended to over 160 million hectares by mid-2003, 95% of which are in the UNECE region, however, not all potentially labeled certified forest products reach final consumers.
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Highlights from Annual Market Analysis. 2/4
• Total roundwood consumption for the UNECE region was 1.3 billion m3, well within sustainable harvest limits.
• Structural oversupply has arisen for some products and subregions, and with strong global competition, this has increased pressure on the economic viability of forest management in some countries.
• Forest products markets remained weak in western Europe, with the exception of sawn softwood, which bounced back from a drop in 2001 to reach record production and exports levels.
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Highlights from Annual Market Analysis. 3/4
Strong housing construction in the United States drove demand for sawn softwood and structural panels, with an increasing amount being imported.
• Increased market share of imported forest products led the United States to continue quotas and tariffs on Canadian sawnwood imports in 2002 through mid-2003.
• Markets in central and eastern Europe exhibited strong, continuing recovery in 2002, and for some products, pre-transition levels were attained.
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Highlights from Annual Market Analysis. 4/4
• Consumption of wood energy in the EU/EFTA rose to a record level in 2002, leading panel and pulp manufacturers to express concern about competition for their raw material.
• CIS exports of roundwood and sawnwood expanded to record levels, but domestic consumption remained soft.
• Sawn softwood consumption, production and trade rose to record levels in the UNECE region in 2002, but sawn hardwood demand peaked in 1999 and has since been falling.
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
EU/EFTA
CEECs
CIS
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Production mondiale de bois de chauffage et de bois rond industriel
1,5001,5501,6001,6501,7001,7501,8001,850
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion
m3
Wood Fuel Industrial Roundwood
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
S a w lo g s &ve ne e r lo gs
P u lpw o od
O th er in d us tria lro u nd w o od
In d us tria lro u nd w o od
F u e lw o od
R o un d w o od
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
World softwood production
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion
m3
Industrial Roundwood PulpwoodSawlogs Other Industrial RoundwoodSawnwood
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
World Roundwood Trade
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,6501,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Milli
on m
3
Wood Fuel Industrial Roundwood
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Industrial Roundwood Importers, 2002(million m3)
China 26 Canada 8
Japan 13 Austria 7
Finland 13 United States 7
Sweden 10 Italy 5
Korea, Rep. 8 France 2
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Industrial Roundwood Exporters, 2002 (million m3)
Russia 37 Germany 4
United States 11 Latvia 4
New Zealand 8 France 4
Malaysia 5 Estonia 3
Canada 5 Gabon 3
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Regional Industrial Roundwood Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion
m3
Oceania AfricaS America AsiaN & C America Europe + Russia
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Regional Industrial Roundwood Consumption
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion
m3
Oceania AfricaS America AsiaEurope + Russia N & C America
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Regional Industrial Roundwood Exports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion
m3
S America AfricaAsia OceaniaN & C America Europe + Russia
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Industrial Roundwood Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion m
3
Baltics France Germany
Finland Sweden Russia
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Regional Log Production
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
10
00
m3
Africa Asia Europe N America Oceania S America
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Softwood Log Production
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1000
m3
Finland France Germany Russia Sweden
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Pulpwood Production
010
2030
4050
60
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Milli
on m
3
Baltics France Germany
Finland Sweden Russia
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Roundwood Consumption
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Pulp Sawnwood Panels
100
0 m
3 é
qu
ival
ent
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Roundwood Utilization
33%
41%
26%
Pulp Sawnwood Panels
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
North American Roundwood Consumption
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Pulp Sawnwood Panels
100
0 m
3 é
qu
ival
ent
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Sawnwood Imports
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
10
00
m3
Softwood Hardwood
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
North American Sawnwood Consumption
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
10
00
m3
Softwood Hardwood
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
North American Sawn Softwood Consumption
• 1.7 million houses per year in the United States• US increasing imports, decreasing exports• US reducing harvests• 34% of US consumption from Canada• ~ 95% of Canadian exports go to the US• Softwood Lumber Agreement resulted in 27%
duties on imported Canadian sawn softwood• Weaker US$ has not reduced imports
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Sawn Softwood Exports, 2004
Million m3
Canada 36.2
Sweden 11.0
Finland 8.3
Russia 9.6
Austria 6.5
France 0.8
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Sawn Softwood Exports, 2004
Million m3
Sweden 11.0
Finland 8.3
Austria 6.5
Germany 4.0
Latvia 2.3
Million m3
Czech Rep. 1.4
Romania 1.6
Estonia 1.2
France 0.8
Norway 0.6
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Sawn Softwood Imports, 2004
Million m3
United States 35.9
United Kingdom 7.6
Italy 6.3
Germany 4.1
Denmark 4.0
France 2.8
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Sawn Softwood Imports, 2004
Million m3
United Kingdom 7.6
Italy 6.3
Germany 4.1
Denmark 4.0
France 2.8
Million m3
Netherlands 2.3
Spain 1.8
Austria 1.2
Hungary 1.0
Belgium 1.4
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Wood-based Panel Markets
• Considerable use of softwood (25%)• Particleboard main product• Dynamic growth in MDF• Fast penetration of OSB, but low levels• Plywood maintaining market share
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Regional Panel Consumption
01020304050607080
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion m
3
Europe America Asia Other
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Panel Consumption
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1000
m3
Particleboard & OSB Plywood Fibreboard
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Regional Panel Imports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Milli
on m
3
Africa Asia Europe
N & C America Oceania S America
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Regional Panel Exports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Milli
on m
3
Africa Asia EuropeN & C America Oceania S America
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Russian Panel Market Forecasts
2003 2004
Consumption + 13% from 2002
5,252,000 m3
+ 8% from 2003
8,060,000 m3
Production + 13% from 2002
6,395,000 m3
+ 8% from 2003
6,980,000 m3
Exports + 11% from 2002
1,548,000 m3
+ 9% from 2003
1,950,000 m3
Imports + 13% from 2002
619,000 m3
+ 6% from 2003
665,000 m3
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Production Capacity
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1000
m3
OSB MDF
Source: European Panel Federation
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European OSB Market
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
10
00
m3
Production Imports Exports
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European OSB Production
0100200300400500600700800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1000
m3
Ireland France Germany Poland
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Europe and North American OSB Production
02000400060008000
100001200014000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
10
00
m3
Europe Canada United States
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Particleboard Production with OSB
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1000
m3
Canada France Germany
Poland United States
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Particleboard Production withOUT OSB
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
1000
m3
Canada FranceGermany PolandUnited States
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
MDF Production
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
10
00
m3
Chine Allemagne France
Nouvelle-Zélande États-Unis d'Amérique
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
MDF Consumption
0
10002000
3000
4000
50006000
7000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1000
m3
United States ChinaGermany PolandUnited Kingdom France
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
MDF Imports
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
1000
m3
United States China Germany France
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Regional Plywood Production
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
10
00
m3
Europe Brazil Canada Chine United States Japan
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Plywood Production
0
5
10
15
20
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion
m3
Europe Brazil ChinaIndonesia Malaysia Russia
United States
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Plywood Exports
0
12
3
4
56
7
8
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion
m3
Europe Brazil China
Indonesia Malaysia Russia
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Certified Forest Products Markets (1/2)
• Markets are primarily in western Europe
• 160 million hectares certified worldwide, 95% in the UNECE region
• 40% of Europe’s forests certified
• Weak demand from final consumers
• Retailer and business-to-business demand strongest
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Certified Forest Products Markets (2/2)
• Chain of custody the major obstacle now
• Only a fraction of the wood supplied from certified forests is actually traded as (labelled) CFPs
• Concern for lack of premium for CFPs and lack of mutual recognition
• Important communications channel for the softwood industry!
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
UNECE Timber Committee*• Recovery of forest products markets in 2003
• Overall stability forecast for 2004
• Forest law enforcement, governance and trade is major issue confronting sector
• Wood-based energy policies affecting sector, offering new markets and competition for traditional raw material supply
• Harvests well below annual growth in UNECE region
• Promotion of wood necessary to grow market
* October 2003
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Outlook to 2010 for the European Forest Sector
Source: Ongoing UNECE/FAO
European Forest Sector Outlook Studies, 2004.
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Forest Sector Outlook
• Fastest growth in eastern Europe• EU/EFTA remains the largest market• Harvests remain below annual growth• Standing volume of forests to increase
continuously• Wood energy increasing with ramifications on
traditional small diameter and residue uses• Emphasis on biodiversity and conservation
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
Consumption: change 2000-2020
EU/EFTA CEEC CIS
Sawnwood +18% +59% +159%
Panels +41% +110% +250%
Paper +56% +178% +225%
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France
European Forest Sector Outlook
• Improved waste management and emission control• Forest sector’s role in mitigating climate change
recognized• CEECs and CIS compete on low labor and
material costs. Investment constraints
INFORESTA Séminaire International
sur les Pins à Croissance Rapide 19 avril 2004, Bordeaux, France