EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES OF THE BALKANS: A VIEW FROM SERBIA With the support of the European Commission Dr. Jovan Teokarevic 19 December 2006 Belgrade Open.

EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES OF THE BALKANS:A VIEW FROM SERBIA

With the support of the European Commission

Dr. Jovan Teokarevic

19 December 2006Belgrade Open School

With the support of the European Commission 2

Outline

• Serbia and European integration • Balkans 1990s – 2006: is the European

perspective feasible? • Key remaining problems • Current pace of the European integration • Obstacles and prospects?

With the support of the European Commission 3

Basics

With the support of the European Commission 4

What is the Balkans? Is there such a thing as the Balkans?

• Cold war: 2 + 2 + 2

• Disintegration of Yugoslavia (1991- ): six out of one (the last ones: Montenegro, Serbia, June 2006); seven? (Kosovo)

• “Shrinking Balkans”: getting out through EU membership (Slovenia 2004, Bulgaria and Romania 2007) and NATO membership (Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia 2004)

• “Western Balkans”: ex-Yu – Slovenia + Albania

With the support of the European Commission 5

CITIZENS OF SERBIA ABOUT THE EUROPEAN UNION

Almost 70 % in favorReferendum question: “Do you support Serbia's membership in the EU?

How would you vote?• Yes: 69,90 %• No: 12,30 %• Wouldn't vote: 17,80 %

YES to this question:• Sept 2002: 68 %• Dec 2003: 72 %• Sept 2004: 70,6 %• Sept 2005: 64 %• Sept 2006: 69,9 %

With the support of the European Commission 6

Wished and expected years of Serbia's membership in the EU

Realistically expected:• Until 2009: 17,3 %• 2010-2014: 34,5 %• 2015-2019: 24,8 %• 2020 and later: 23,4 %

Wished:• 2006: 12,4 %

• 2007: 32,4 o%• 2008-2010: 33,9 %

• 2011 and later: 21,2 %

CITIZENS OF SERBIA ABOUT THE EUROPEAN UNION

With the support of the European Commission 7

Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal

Does Serbia have to cooperate with the Hague Tribunal? • Yes 49,9% • No 31,1% • I don’t know 19,0% • Total 100,0%

Do you support transfer of our

citizens to the Hague Tribunal? • I fully support 12,5%

• I mostly support 17,2% • Indecisive 17,6%

• I am mostly against 14,0% • I am completely against 38,7%

• Total 100,0%

With the support of the European Commission 8

Future Status of Kosovo

Which would be the most just result of the Kosovo negotiations? • Independence of Kosovo 3,7% • Autonomy within Serbia 63,0% • Division on the Serbian and the Albanian parts 30,1% • Permanent international protectorate 3,1%• Total 100,0%

How will Kosovo negotiations end? • Independence of Kosovo 39,9%

• Division on the Serbian and the Albanian parts 21,2% • Extended autonomy within Serbia 19,0%

• Will remain under international protectorate 19,9% • Total 100,0%

With the support of the European Commission 9

FUTURE STATUS OF KOSOVO

• Kosovo under international rule (international protectorate), i.e. out of Serbian sovereignty since June 1999 (UN SC resolution)

• Negotiations infrastructure: Contact Group - UN SG Special Envoy Marti Ahtisaari – Security Council

• “Negotiations” between Belgrade and Pristina in Vienna since February 2006 (delayed, decision due Spring 2007)

• Completely opposed plans: BELGRADE: everything but independence; PRISTINA: nothing but independence

• Decision on the final status will have to be imposed (UNSC)• Albanian position – in some variant - favored by the most

influential players

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FUTURE STATUS OF KOSOVO

• Most likely outcome: phased and/or conditioned independence for Kosovo

• Continued international presence extremely important (from 2007 EU-led)

• European perspective of Kosovo

• Principles of the Contact Group: Kosovo should not be divided, but also not united with neighbours – should not be a threat to neighbor countries territorial integrity

With the support of the European Commission 11

FUTURE STATUS OF KOSOVO

CONSEQUENCES:

• military conflict not likely, the same goes for secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia

• BUT: the example of Kosovo will be important in states with territories or communities that wish to secede

• very likely continuation/finishing of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo (victims: Serbs and other minorities)

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FUTURE STATUS OF KOSOVO

• neighbours’ borders with Kosovo might in the short and medium term remain partly closed, to prevent possible spillover effects of an extremely difficult political, economic, social conditions of life in Kosovo

• political life in Serbia: very bad consequences, popularity of nationalist parties will go up, and they will try to get to power

• European perspective – essential for Kosovo and the region

With the support of the European Commission 13

Balkans at the end of 2006

Balkans at the end of 2006– During the last several years: the region moved from war to piece,

to the European mainstream (MUCH FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THAN POST WWII WESTERN EUROPE)

SECURITY: – new military conflicts not likely – reconciliation process has advanced, cooperation – not conflict – the key

word – borders relaxed, visas mostly vanished within the region (but, new

ones…)

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Balkans at the end of 2006

SECURITY: • refugees coming back homes, but not everywhere • regional agreements pushing cooperation forward • common Euro-Atlantic framework • stability considerably strengthen, but still not self-sustainable • peace and stability still in some parts depend on foreign - although declining

– military presence • still: nation-building (Montenegro, Kosovo) • many borders still contested • still not enough self-critical look at the recent past (ICTY) • minorities in Kosovo: extremely bad status

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Balkans at the end of 2006

POLITICS: • significant stabilization of political institutions • democracy – the rule in all region’s states, not the exception any more • still lack of complete consensus on basic rules and principles (survival of the

unreformed old regime parties, nationalism and populism…) • civil society not strong enough • rule of law – still more an ideal than a reality, corruption high• parliaments slow and mainly reactive, parties highly centralized • judiciaries – not independent from the executive power

With the support of the European Commission 16

With the support of the European Commission 17

Balkans at the end of 2006

ECONOMY:

• 20-30% of the EU level

• high economic growth, low inflation, very high unemployment

• very differentiated picture of development, incomes and prospects within the region (Kosovo – Albania …. Croatia)

With the support of the European Commission 18

With the support of the European Commission 19

Remaining problems

• Bosnia-Herzegovina: functional integration• Kosovo: functional disintegration

• Economy• Consolidation of democracy

With the support of the European Commission 20

Remaining problems

Further joint EU-NATO action in the Balkans crucial • no one else capable

• common history of engagement in the 1990s

• achievements: soft + hard power

• equal strategic thinking about the Western Balkans: «Concerted approach for the Western Balkans», July, 2003: “self-sustaining stability based on democratic and effective government structures and a viable free market economy, leading to further rapprochement towards European and Euro-Atlantic structures”.

With the support of the European Commission 21

Remaining problems

• EU-NATO established their official institutional ties for the first time exactly because of the Balkans (“Berlin plus arrangements”)

• the nature of the Balkan crisis

• positive spillover effects from the (EU-NATO) zone of stability, security and prosperity in Europe (EU-NATO parallel enlargements)

• divided preferences among Balkan nations on who's to dominate in the process

With the support of the European Commission 22

With the support of the European Commission 23

Western Balkan Countries and the EU: SAP Status

COUNTRY SAP STATUS

Albania SAA negotiations opened in Jan 2003 SAA signed in June 2006

Bosnia and Herzegovina

SAP: feasibility study - Nov 2003. SAA negotiations started in Nov 2005.

Croatia SAA: signed in Oct 2001, ratified by all EU members in 2004. Candidate for EU membership: in June 2004. Accession negotiations started in Oct 2005.

Macedonia SAA: signed in Apr 2001, ratified by all EU members in 2004. Requested EU membership in March 2004. Candidate status approved in Dec 2005.

Serbia and Montenegro

SAP: Feasibility study: Apr 2005.SAA negotiations started in Oct 2005, but were suspended in May 2006MONTENEGRO became independent in June 2006 and started SAA negotiations in Sept 2006

Kosovo SAP Tracking Mechanism (STM) established.

With the support of the European Commission 24

Balkans: EU and NATO memberships

COUNTRY SAA EU MEMBERSHIP PFP/NATO MEMBERSHIP

Bulgaria 2007 NATO: 2004

Romania 2007 NATO: 2004

Croatia 2001 2010 PfP, MEPAdriatic Charter,

NATO: 2008?

Macedonia 2001 2012 (?) PfP, MEPAdriatic Charter,

NATO: 2008?

Albania 2006 After 2013 PfP, MEPAdriatic Charter,

NATO: 2008?

Bosnia and Herzegovina

2007? After 2013 PfP: 2006

Serbia 2007? After 2013 PfP: 2006

Montenegro 2007? After 2013 PfP: 2006

Kosovo After 2013

With the support of the European Commission 25

Prospects

“Enlargement fatigue”

“Once each of the following countries complies with all conditions set by the EU…”Percentage of people in the EU—25 who support the accession of…

For Against

• Croatia 56 30• Macedonia 49 36• Bosnia 48 37• Serbia Montenegro 47 33• Albania 41 44

Source: Eurobarometer, Attitudes toward EU Enlargement, July 2006

With the support of the European Commission 26

Prospects

With the support of the European Commission 27

Prospects

Absorption capacity / integration capacity

The EU's capacity to integrate new members, is determined by two factors:

• maintaining the momentum to reinforce and deepen European integration byensuring the EU's capacity to function. This is in the interest of both present andfuture EU citizens; • ensuring that candidate countries are ready to take on the obligations ofmembership when they join by fulfilling the rigorous conditions set. This isassessed by the Commission on the basis of strict conditionality.

European Commission Strategy Paper (2006)

With the support of the European Commission 28

Prospects

Full membership in the EU vs.

Special relationship with the EU

TURKEY – Western Balkans

(CDU/CSU: partial membership,

privileged partnership, European Economic Area)

With the support of the European Commission 29