-
January 2017
European Equities: “Value” calling!
This presentation is intended for Professional Clients only and
should not be distributed to or relied
upon by Retail Clients. The information contained in this
publication is not intended as investment
advice or recommendation. Non contractual document
Frédéric Leguay
Head of European Equities and
Large Cap European Equities
Lead portfolio manager(HSBC Global Asset Management France)
Denis Grandjean
Head of Equity and ESG Research
Back-up portfolio manager(HSBC Global Asset Management
France)
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2Non contractual document
Summary
European equity: 2016 in review Section 1
2017 European equity outlook Section 2
Euphoria? Section 3
"Value" calling! Section 4
HSBC GIF Euroland Equity Section 5
̶ Process, performance review & stock examples
Assets, teams and expertise Section 6
Appendix Section 7
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European equity: 2016 in review
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4Non contractual document
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). For illustrative
purposes only. Representative overview of the investment process,
which may differ by product, client mandate or market
conditions.
2016: Main events
Quality becomes
a value trap
Central Bankers
take a back-seat
The political
response to
populism is
reflation
Shift from macro
concerns to global
economic re-
synchronisation
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5Non contractual document
Sources: HSBC Global Asset Management, MSCI as at 31/12/2016.
For illustrative purposes only.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
2016: Eurozone sector performance
ARCELORMITTAL 132%
STMICROELECTRONICS 82%
COVESTRO AG 72%
ADIDAS AG 69%
TENARIS SA 60%
TECHNIP SA 55%
LANXESS 48%
KERING SA 39%
REPSOL SA - MADRID 38%
DANONE (GROUPE) -1%
DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG -6%
HEINEKEN NV -8%
ACCOR SA -9%
ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV -10%
KERRY GROUP PLC-A DUBLIN -10%
UNITED INTERNET -26%
NOKIA OYJ -27%
INGENICO GROUP -34%
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2017 European equity outlook
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Non contractual document
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8Non contractual document
Are there good reasons to be optimistic?The lost decade: coming
to an end?
Europe vs US: Relative Performance (TR) and Relative earnings
Growth over 10Y
Sources: HSBC Global Asset Management, MSCI, IBES, Factset,
Morgan Stanley Research, Consensus Earnings Estimates over time, as
at 31.12.2016.
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast,
projection or target.
The figures displayed in the document relate to the past and
past performance should not be seen as an indication of future
returns.
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9Non contractual document
Are there good reasons to be optimistic?Synchronous economic
momentum
Citigroup – Economic Surprise Indicators
Period: 30.09.2013 to 31.12.2016
1.The NR (Net dividends reinvested) index provides the equity
returns including dividends net of withholding tax.
http://www.msci.com/products/indexes/real_time/
Sources: Bloomberg and MSCI as at 31.12.2016. For illustrative
purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
• Higher Commodity Prices
• Bounce in Manufacturing Activity
• End of Inventory Destocking
• Rebound in Capital Spending
• Falling Unemployment
• Rising Consumer spending
• Global Fiscal Expansion
http://www.msci.com/products/indexes/real_time/
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10Non contractual document
Are there good reasons to be optimistic?Credible acceleration in
profit growth
Earnings revision ratio
Sources: HSBC Global Asset Management, MSCI, IBES, Factset,
Morgan Stanley Research, Consensus Earnings Estimates over time, as
at 31.12.2016.
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast, projection or target.
The figures displayed in the document relate to the past and
past performance should not be seen as an indication of future
returns.
• Higher commodity prices
• Bounce in global nominal GDP
• Higher inflation
• Lower Euro
• Lower interest rates
• Lower tax rates
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11Non contractual document
Eurozone Consensus Profit Estimates (EUR mn)
Source: MSCI EMU – Consensus Next 12-month Earnings Estimates
over time. Sources: Global Asset Management and MSCI, MSCI, IBES,
Factset, Morgan Stanley Research as at 31.12.2016.
Note: Data calculated before goodwill and in local currency
terms.
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast, projection or target.
The figures displayed in the document relate to the past and
past performance should not be seen as an indication of future
returns.
Are there good reasons to be optimistic?4 bubbles and a
cycle
• High operational gearing (net margins at 5%)
• High proportion of financials (20% earnings)
• Large sensitivity to commodity (15% earnings)
• Large exposure to emerging (20% sales)
• Domestic pent-up
• Positive impact of lower Euro (50% of sales)
From Previous Peak -58.8% 0.0% -2.6% -64.3% -1.9% -48.3% -3.2%
-46.8% 0.0% -54.0% -30.8%
Trend Growth 1996-2006 10.2% 4.9% 8.3% 15.2% 6.1% 6.4% 2.8%
11.3% 8.0% 7.9% 8.3%
Trend Growth 2007-2016 -7.4% 8.0% 3.7% -7.1% 1.4% -3.8% 1.7%
-7.4% 4.9% -7.6% -1.9%
FIN COD COS ENE IND MAT INF TEL HEA UTI MKT
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12Non contractual document
Source: Datastream, Morgan Stanley, MSCI as at 31.12.2016. For
illustrative purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
Trend PE in Europe
Period: 31.07.1985 to 31.12.2016
1985 2016
Europe – Earnings per Share and Trends (Log scale)
Period: 31 July 1985 to 31 December 2016
Are there good reasons to be optimistic?Is 3% the right level of
trend growth for earnings in Europe?
15.4 x
9.6 x
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13Non contractual document
Sources: Bloomberg and MSCI as at 31.12.2016. For illustrative
purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
Europe Trend PE vs. Real total return achieved 10 years later
(December 2016)
Period: December 1979 to December 2006
On the horizontal axis (left to right) a given dot presents the
valuation
(trend PE) of the Europe equity market at a given month over the
period
(December 1979 to end February 2006). The same given dot
also
shows the historical returns achieved over the following 10
years
(December 1989 to February 2016). It is pretty clear that the
dots further
to the right which present the market at high valuations (Trend
PE) are
generally followed by very low to negative returns over the
following 10
years. At the current Trend PE of 13.6, most of the returns in
the following
10 years are concentrated in a +5% to +15% return range. Months
in
which Trend PEs are particularly low (far left) have
systematically been
followed by 10 year returns in excess of +10% per year.
Trend PE of 15.4 is at end-December 2016
Historical range of yearly Real Total Return achieved
for 10 years in Europe when the Trend PE is at 15.4x
Are there good reasons to be optimistic?Still consistent with
attractive risk-adjusted returns
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Euphoria?
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15Non contractual document
Source: Datastream, Morgan Stanley, MSCI as at 31.12.2016. For
illustrative purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
Relative Long Term Valuation Measures (Europe vs. US) –
Z-Score
Period: 31.12.1980 to 31.12.2016
Are we already in Euphoria?Not in Europe! - Valuation
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16Non contractual document
Source: Datastream, Morningstar, MSCI as at 31.12.2016. For
illustrative purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
Net Flows into European Equity Funds – as a percentage of the
Assets under Management (€476 bn)
Period: 31.01.2007 to 31.12.2016
Are we already in Euphoria?Not in Europe! - Liquidity
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17Non contractual document
Source: Datastream, Morningstar, MSCI as at 31.12.2016. For
illustrative purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
Relative Beta to the market of the largest 140 Eurozone
funds
Period: 08.07.2011 to 31.12.2016
Are we already in Euphoria?Not in Europe! - Sentiment
The average Beta of Eurozone funds has hardly moved and
remains
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“Value” Calling!
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19Non contractual document
"Value" Calling!A typical value rally lasts 2 yrs & averages
+25% relative performance
Sources: Datastream, Morgan Stanley, MSCI as at 31.12.2016. For
illustrative purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
Value Spread (Price to book: expensive/cheapest) – Z-Scored
Period: September 1996 – December 2016
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20Non contractual document
"Value" Calling!Positively correlated to the cycle and
reflation
Sources: Datastream, Morgan Stanley, MSCI as at 31.12.2016. For
illustrative purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
MSCI Europe Value – Relative performance vs. MSCI Europe Growth
and Long term US interest rates
Period: September 2002 – December 2016
(rhs)(lhs)
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21Non contractual document
"Value" Calling!Positively correlated to the cycle and
reflation
Sources: HSBC Global Asset Management,MSCI as at end-December
2016. For illustrative purposes only.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast, projection or target.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
MSCI Europe
6-Month regression between the Industry Group relative
performance and the change in the indicator – 20 years – Dec
2016
Relative performance
expectationsHigher Long term Interest rates Higher Inflation
Diversified Financials Diversified Financials
Materials Materials
Banks Banks
Capital Goods Energy
Automobiles & Components Capital Goods
Retailing Retailing
Household & Personal Products Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology
& Life Sciences
Telecommunication Services Household & Personal Products
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life Sciences Food Beverage
& Tobacco
Food Beverage & Tobacco Telecommunication Services
Relative performance
expectationsHigher ISM (US) Higher Eurozone Composite PMI
Banks Banks
Semisconductors and equipment Semisconductors and equipment
Materials Consumer Durables & Apparel
Consumer Durables & Apparel Capital Goods
Capital Goods Materials
Household & Personal Products Food & Staples
Retailing
Telecommunication Services Telecommunication Services
Food & Staples Retailing Household & Personal
Products
Food Beverage & Tobacco Food Beverage & Tobacco
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life Sciences
-
+
-
+
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22Non contractual document
Sources: HSBC Global Asset Management, MSCI as at 31.12.2016.
For illustrative purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
"Value" Calling!Faster profitability improvement
MSCI Europe Value – Relative performance and Relative EPS vs.
MSCI Europe Growth
Period: April 2005 to December 2016
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23Non contractual document
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France) as at 31.12.2016.
For illustrative purposes only.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect
the opinion of HSBC Global Asset Management on the markets,
according to the information available to date. They do not
constitute any
kind of commitment from HSBC Global Asset Management.
"Value" Calling!Where is value?
Trend PE Schiller PE Profitability & Valuation
Food & Staples Retailing Food & Staples Retailing
Banks
Utilities Utilities Automobiles & Components
Energy Materials Insurance
Banks Telecommunication ServicesPharmaceuticals Biotechnology
& Life
Sciences
Materials Automobiles & Components Energy
Telecommunication Services Energy Capital Goods
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology & Life
SciencesBanks Food & Staples Retailing
Commercial & Professional Services Commercial &
Professional Services Real Estate
Semisconductors and equipment Retailing Software &
Services
Transportation Consumer Services Retailing
Household & Personal Products Household & Personal
Products Health Care Equipment & Services
Food Beverage & Tobacco Health Care Equipment & Services
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Health Care Equipment & Services Software & Services
Household & Personal Products
Retailing Semisconductors and equipment Food Beverage &
TobaccoExpensive
Cheap
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24Non contractual document
Risks
Sources: HSBC Global Asset Management. For illustrative purposes
only. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is
indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global
Asset
Management (France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet
such forecast, projection or target.
Bond yields overshoot
US profit cycle weakens
Chinese investment bubble bursts
Excessive currency volatility
Political uncertainties
Structural deflation awakens again
Disruption in economic models accelerates
-
HSBC GIF Euroland Equity
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26Non contractual document
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). For illustrative
purposes only. Representative overview of the investment process,
which may differ by product, client mandate or market
conditions.
We believe it is possible to achieve
out performance by exploiting the
strong relationship that exists
between profitability and valuation
We believe it is easier to outperform
by selecting stocks with a medium
term view
Profitability is our framework,
valuation our discipline
Our style has a marginal
“contrarian” and “value” bias
Graphical Representation
1st Quintile – the most attractive
0.0
1.9
3.8
5.7
7.7
9.6
0.0% 10.7% 21.4% 32.1% 42.9% 53.6%
Profitability
Valu
atio
n
Expensive
Attractive
Illustration of investment universe
2nd Quintile – attractive
3rd Quintile – Fair value
4th Quintile – Not attractive
5th Quintile – the least attractive
Profitability & valuationOur investment process
illustrated
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27Non contractual document
Profitability & valuation: adapting the bias to the economic
cyclePortfolio exposure to profitability profiles
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). For illustrative
purposes only. Representative overview of the investment process,
which may differ by product, client mandate or market
conditions.
Profitability profiles of companies
in strategy …
…high and stable
Pro
fita
bil
ity (
%)
Cost of capital
…average but growing
Pro
fita
bil
ity (
%)
Cost of capital
…weak but recovering
Pro
fita
bil
ity%
Cost of capital
10%
60%
30%
30%
50%
20%
Our holdings (by profitability profiles) depend on the
profitability cycle
We OW cheap cyclicals when signs of an economic recovery
appear
We OW high & stable profitability companies when the
profitability
cycle is maturing to protect our relative performance when
markets
consolidate
Average
profitability
Recessionary phase Expansionary phase
Time
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28 Document non contractuel
Integration of ESG criteria is key in our stock selection
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management. For illustrative purposes
only. Representative overview of the investment process, which may
differ by product, client mandate or market conditions.
• Absolute: level of
consistency/adherence to
the 10 ONU principles
• Relative approach:
ranking from 0 to 10 and
per percentile. Source:
MSCI ESG Research &
GMI and our ESG
internal weightings by
sector
• The results of the ratings
are ranked from 0 to 10
(10 is best) and a
percentile ranking is
issued (100th is best rate)
• High, Medium and Lowratings are available in the "Font-office"
tools
• « Executive Summary» for each stock (hosted on internal
website tool)
• Financial and ESG analysis:
- For new investment cases
- Annual reviews
- Monitoring of « High Risk »
• A «Due Diligence» is required for all “High Risk” names along
with decisionifrom local CIO who is responsible of the final
decision (maintain, under monitoring, exclusion)
• Ratings:
- « High Risk » :
Company violated 1 or
several of the 10 ONU
principles, or ranked
within the 5 last
percentile
- « Medium Risk » :
company is suspected
as not fulfilling 1 of the
10 principles, or ranked
between 5th and 20th
percentiles
- « Low Risk »:
identify/determine?
Company complies to
ONU principles, or
ranked between 20th
and 100th percentiles
• Voting policy favours
governance practice
• We publish an annual
report summarising
voting decisions and
reasons for which we did
support resolutions
For additional information related to
the voting poilicy and the exercise of
voting rights is available in the annual
report, please refer to the following
website:
http://www.assetmanagement.hsbc.co
m/fr/footer/politique.html
• A dedicated team of
"Engagement" meets
both companies held in
the portfolio
• The aim of this
engagement actions is
to create awareness and
to increase
understanding of our
concerns and
expectations
• Engagement actions will
define our voting
decisions and whether
the stock should be
liquidated
Absolute
and relative
approach
Risk ranking
across ESG
intranet tool
Management
riskVoting right Engagement
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29Non contractual document
HSBC GIF Euroland Equity: net performance (IC share class) AUM
EUR 755.1 million as at 31.12.2016
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France) as at 31.12.2016.
Management fees: I share Class: 0.75%. Operating, administrative
and servicing expenses: 0.25%.
* Index given for comparative and illustrative purposes only.
The fund is not managed to the index, is actively managed and
returns may deviate materially from the performance of the
specified index.
Allocation is as at the date indicated, may not represent
current or future allocation and is subject to change without prior
notice.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
Net cumulative performance (IC share class) since inception
15.12.2006 – 31.12.2016
Fund
Tracking Error (ex-post 3 ans) 3.35%
Number of holdings 57
1st Quartile
2st Quartile
3rd Quartile
4th Quartile
10 Largest holdings (%) Weight
SOCIETE GENERALE 3.43%
SANOFI 3.33%
ALLIANZ SE-REG 3.30%
AXA SA 3.03%
BANCO SANTANDER SA 2.96%
BAYER AG 2.85%
ING GROEP NV 2.84%
DEUTSCHE POST AG 2.68%
DAIMLER AG 2.65%
NATIXIS 2.40%
Total 29.47%
Net performance 2016 2015 2014 2013 3 years 5 yearsSince
launch (IC)
HSBC GIF Euroland Equity (IC) 4.7% 11.8% 2.8% 31.6% 20.4% 87.5%
34.7%
MSCI EMU (NR)* 4.3% 9.8% 4.3% 23.4% 19.5% 75.9% 16.1%
Excess Return 0.4% 2.0% -1.5% 8.2% 0.8% 11.6% 18.6%
Quartile# 2 2 3 1 2 1 N/A
# Morningstar fund quartile - category Eurozone Large-Cap
Equity: please note that this ranking is calculated with the retail
A share class. Management Fees: A share class:
1.50% Operating, administrative and servicing expenses: 035%.
Data Source - © Copyright 2016 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights
Reserved. The information contained herein: (1)
is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2)
may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be
accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar
nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or
losses arising from any use of this information.
+34.7%
+16.1%
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30Non contractual document
HSBC GIF Euroland Equity (IC): gross returnsAn illustration of
how the fund performs in up and down markets
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). Performance in
EUR, gross of fees. Period: 30.09.2004 to 31.12.2016. For
illustrative purposes only.
*As of end of September 2004, the fund has been fully managed
following the profitability and valuation investment process.
**Index given for comparative and illustrative purposes only. The
fund is not
managed to the index, is actively managed and returns may
deviate materially from the performance of the specified index.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
The performance figures in the document are gross of fees.
Returns would be lower once fees are taken into account.
The fund tends to "do better" in rising markets and perform "in
line" in down markets
Excess return (gross of fees): 60.1% (from September 2004* to
December 2016)
Gross performance in up and down periods (from 30.09.2004 to
31.12.2016)
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31Non contractual document
HSBC GIF Euroland Equity: factor based competitive
positioningBased on weekly NAV between 31.12.2011 and
31.12.2016
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). Each dot on the
line is the sensitivity of one of 140 funds to the mentioned
factors.
Period: 31.12.2011 – 31.12.2016. The commentary and analysis
presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Global Asset
Management (France) on the markets, according to the
information
available to date. For illustrative purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
Illustration of the fund and its sensitivity to a number of
factors (value, size, quality, dividend yield and market beta);
these factors allow
you to show the alpha of the fund
140 funds in the Morningstar Euro Large Cap category with AUM
> EUR100m and that have a Euroland large cap benchmark
Value factorSize factorAlpha
Quality factorDividend Yield factorMarket factor
-
32Non contractual document
HSBC GIF Euroland Equity (IC)One of the biggest value biases
(lowest P/B) vs customised peer group
Peer group analysis: risk adjusted performance and P/B for a
selection of Eurozone funds
Period: 01.01.2012 to 31.12.2016
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France) as at 31.12.2016.
For illustrative purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
-
33Non contractual document
HSBC GIF Euroland EquityPerformance attribution 31.12.2015 to
31.12.2016
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). For illustrative
purposes only.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
The performance figures in the document are gross of fees.
Returns would be lower once fees are taken into account.
SOCIETE GENERALE 0.38%
NATIXIS 0.24%
THALES (exTHOMSON-CSF) 0.29%
PRYSMIAN SPA 0.20%
DEUTSCHE POST AG 0.37%
POSTNL 0.12%
ARCELORMITTAL 0.39%
BUZZI UNICEM SPA 0.27%
TELEPERFORMANCE SE 0.26%
PUBLICIS GROUPE SA 0.07%
HEINEKEN NV -0.12%
ARYZTA AG -0.15%
DEUTSCHE BANK AG -0.04%
AHOLD (KONINKLIJKE) NV -0.17%
CARREFOUR -0.23%
GEMALTO -0.08%
CAP GEMINI -0.14%
ENGIE -0.29%
VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT -0.44%
Technology Hardware-Equipment UW 0.45%
Food Beverage & Tobacco UW 0.43%
Capital Goods OW 0.21%
Materials UW -0.36%
Semiconductors & Semiconductor UW -0.43%
Consumer Durables & Apparel UW -0.61%
Banks 0.98%
Capital Goods 0.50%
Transportation 0.45%
Materials 0.40%
Media 0.37%
Food Beverage & Tobacco -0.08%
Diversified Financials -0.09%
Food & Staples Retailing -0.16%
Software & Services -0.43%
Utilities -0.64%
SIEMENS AG GERMANY UW -0.28%
ENGIE OW -0.29%
ADIDAS AG UW -0.33%
VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT OW -0.44%
BASF SE UW -0.46%
BNP PARIBAS UW -0.47%
UNICREDIT SPA OW -0.61%
ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV UW 0.39%
OMV AG OW 0.39%
ARCELORMITTAL OW 0.39%
SOCIETE GENERALE OW 0.38%
NOKIA OYJ UW 0.37%
DEUTSCHE POST AG OW 0.37%
MICHELIN B OW 0.30%
Sect
or
allo
cati
on
: -8
5 b
ps
Stock selection : +220 bps
-
34Non contractual document
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). For illustrative
purposes only.
The performance figures displayed in the document relate to the
past and past performance should not be seen as an indication of
future returns.
HSBC GIF Euroland Equity1-year and 3-year factorial performance
attribution (30.12.2016)
-
35Non contractual document
HSBC GIF Euroland EquitySector positioning
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). For illustrative
purposes only.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
Most important value sectors Least important value sectors
Relative weight
Banks 5,84%
Pharma, Biotec & Life Sciences 2,06%
Automobiles & Components 1,63%
Capital Goods 1,40%
Food & Staples Retailing 1,35%
Insurance 0,13%
Energy -0,88%
Total 11,53%
Relative weight
Health Care Equipment & Services 1,06%
Household & Personal Products -0,45%
Software & Services -0,54%
Retailing -1,55%
Real Estate -1,81%
Consumer Durables & Apparel -3,21%
Food Beverage & Tobacco -3,37%
Total -9,88%
Value sectors in our Profitability & Valuation model &
our relative portfolio positioning vs MSCI EMU
-
36
High superior & stable
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Low RecoveringMedium RisingDutch - Food retailCapitalisation
€25.2 bn
P/B vs ROE (2018e) Strong US activity: anticipation around
food price deflation is exaggerated
Synergies boost results: purchasing
(75%). EBIT margins to progress from
3.8% to 4.2% in 2018
Solid track record in capital allocation:
€1 bn/year stock buy-back program
demonstrates management is confident
Attractive financials: free cash flow yield
@ 7-8% (2017e & 2018e), stock trading
@ P/BV of 1.5x, ROE should improve to
15% by 2018 (implicit PE of 10x)
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 31/12/2016
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast, projection
or target.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
-
37
A group in transformation
Gazprom deal increases reserves
lifeline by 9-14 years & implies less
exploration investments & more cash
flow
Good visibility on dividend (over +4%)
& increase likely in 2017
Low debt levels & good cash flow
Profitability/valuation analysis
attractive
Free cash flow & Reserve Life
Period: 2008 to 2020e
Austria - Oil & GasCapitalisation €11.3 bn
High superior & stable
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Low RecoveringMedium Rising
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 31/12/2016
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast, projection
or target.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
-
38
France - BankCapitalisation €38.1 bn
Evolution of profitability (ROTE) and Solvability (CET1)
Period: 2007 to 2020e Stock is still undervalued despite
improved solvability (CET1 FL @ 11.4%
end September 2016)
International network in growth mode
with improving profits
France should benefit from a steeper
yield curve & restructuring in the
network
Stock trading at 0.8x TBV 2017 for a
ROTE of 8.2% vs 0.9x and 7.2% for the
Eurozone sector
High superior & stable
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Low RecoveringMedium Rising
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 31/12/2016
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast, projection
or target.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
-
39 39
France - AutomobileCapitalisation €25.2 bn
Evolution of the profitability and valuation
Period: 2007 to 2020e 2017 should remain solid after a
strong
2016, fuelled by product offensive
Modest growth in Europe but EM could
be a major volume driver (ie Russia)
Cost cutting and productivity
improvements
Market discounts that earnings have
reached a peak
Stock significantly undervalued
High superior & stable
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Low RecoveringMedium Rising
Sources: HSBC Global Asset Management, Exane as at
31/12/2016
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast, projection
or target.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
-
40
High superior & stable
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Low RecoveringMedium Rising
Dutch - Specialty ChemicalsCapitalisation €10.3 bn
Strategy to refocus on nutrition is
almost complete
Cost reduction program in place
(€250/300 ml)
Organic growth in “core activities”
Results are expected up: EBITDA
margins for Nutrition division @ 20% by
2018
Company is trading as a 25%
discount vs comparable companies in
sector
EBITA Margin
Period: December 2005 to December 2019e
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 31/12/2016
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast, projection
or target.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
-
41
Dutch - Health Care EquipmentCapitalisation €26.4 bn
Accelerating growth (+ 4 to 6%) thanks
to revised group strategy
Increased profitability, EBITA margins
should increase from 11% to 14% by
2019
Profits growing by 12-15% per year
over the next years
EBITA Margin
Period: December 2005 to December 2019e
High superior & stable
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital Pro
fita
bilit
y %
Cost of capital
Low RecoveringMedium Rising
%
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 31/12/2016
Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative
only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management
(France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such
forecast, projection
or target.
The content of this page is historic and contains information
that is not current. It is not intended as advice or a
recommendation to buy or sell any sector or financial
instrument.
-
Assets, teams and expertise
-
43Non contractual document
HSBC Global Asset Management: Equity specialistManufacturing
center: France
European equities: Key facts
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 30 September 2016
EUR 8.9 bn in equity
assets under
management
~15 equity portfolio
managers (11 large and 4 small and mid cap)
~6 large cap equity
analysts
Our key strengths
– Integrated: one team-one process “profitability
and valuation”
– Specialised: analysts (6) supporting the large
cap team cover 2-3 sectors each.
Manager/analyst role for small and mid cap
segment
– ESG database allows for complete company
analysis
– Unique “repeatable” approach: each
investment case follows predefined steps to
decompose profitability drivers
– Global infrastructure: global database and tools
brings consistency and comparability
– Dedicated Bloomberg application allows
teams to exchange investment cases and
meetings notes
-
44Non contractual document
HSBC Global Asset Management: Equity specialistCapabilities
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 30 September 2016
*Employees’ Savings Plans
Core (large cap):
EUR 6.4 bn
Dividend/Income:
EUR 1.1 bn
SMID: EUR 800 ml
European equities: Assets under management by type
Other*: EUR 560 ml
Active fundamental stock selection
Long dated track record
Robust long term performance– Consistently in 1st or 2nd
quartiles; 3 & 5Y periods
– Focus is on delivering optimised risk adjusted
returns
Strategy Launch date Process upgrade
Core (large cap) 1980 2004
Dividend/Income 2003 2012
SMID 1998 2003
Strategy Geography
Core (large cap) Europe, Europe ex UK, Euroland, France
Volatility Focused Europe, Europe ex UK
Dividend/Income Europe
SMID Europe, Euroland, France
-
45Non contractual document
OrganisationParis European equity investment team
An experienced investment team in Paris with an average over 20
years industry experience
Stable and committed teams benefiting from a common investment
framework supported by customized tools
ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) factors are
systematically taken into account1
1. Formal integration of ESG criteria were implemented as of
2012.
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). As of January
2017. ( x ) Years of industry experience. For illustrative purposes
only.
Research and
Development
1 economist
European Equity:
Tony Eagleton (22)
Global RI:
TBD
Product Specialists
Cédric Carpentier (14)
Risk management tools and
strategy research
Investment Process
R&D
Pascal Pierre (19)
Head of Equity
and ESG1 Research
Denis Grandjean (27)
Head of Large Cap
European Equity
Frédéric Leguay (28)
Head of Thematic
Equity
Pascal Pierre (19)
Portfolio Managers Financial and ESG1 AnalystsFinancial
engineering
& quantitative research
Head of European Equities - Frédéric Leguay (28)
Equity Traders
5 traders
Laura Fauveau (3)
Materials and Construction,
Healthcare, Business
Services
Aloys Goichon (12)
Utilities, Oil & Gas
and Capital Goods
Guillaume d’Harcourt (37)
Aerospace-Defense, Autos
Eric Hazart (24)
Bank, Insurance and Real
Estate
Benoit Olle-Laprune (23)
Technology, Media and
Telecoms
Florence Tassan (18)
Consumer goods and
services, Transportation
François Chacun (28)
Jeanne Follet (18)
Patrick Gautier (17)
Denis Grandjean (27)
Bénédicte Mougeot (21)
Yann Petel (33)
Jean-Luc Rondet (29)
Arnaud Tourlet (17)
SMID Cap Equity
Other Thematic
Abderrahman Belcaid (11)
Frédérique Caron (15)
Christophe Peroni (20)
François Travaillé (29)
Clément Tasseau (14)
-
46Non contractual document
HSBC GIF Euroland EquityPortfolio Managers
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management.
Denis Grandjean
Head of Equity and ESG Research
Back-up portfolio manager
Denis has been working in the industry since 1990
Prior to joining HSBC in 2004, Denis held the positions of
Portfolio Manager at Crédit Commercial de France and at
Elysées Fonds
He graduated with degree in economics from the University of
Paris X (France) and graduated with a degree in
Finance from ESC Rouen (France)
He is a Certified European Financial Analyst
Frédéric Leguay
Head of European Equities and Large Cap European Equities
Lead portfolio manager
Frédéric has been working in the industry since 1989
Prior to joining the Group in 2006, Frédéric worked for AXA
Investment Managers in the European Equity team and
for Indosuez Carr Futures International in London and
Chicago
He holds a Master's degree from the business school ISC Paris
(France) and holds an MBA from the University of
Georgia (United States)
He is a Certified European Financial Analyst
-
Appendix
-
48Non contractual document
Portfolio characteristics
Comparative index MSCI EMU (NR)*
CapitalisationBiased to large-cap stocks:
EUR1bn minimum (at purchase)
Style « Value » bias
Typical holdings 50-60**
Individual stock holdings 5% max.
Tracking error ex-ante 3 - 5%**
Average annual turnover < 30%**
Regional exposure
Mainly 10 developed Eurozone countries
(Austria, Belgium, Finland, France,
Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands,
Portugal, Spain)
Sector exposure
No sector constraints yet impose a
minimum of 15 to be held at all times
(out of the 24 MSCI industry groups)
Cash weighting 0-5%**
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as of 31.12.2016. For
illustrative purposes only.
* Index given for comparative and illustrative purposes only.
The fund is not managed to the index, is actively managed and
returns may deviate materially from the performance of the
specified index.
** The above mentioned limits/objectives are to be considered on
the recommended minimum investment period; there can be no
assurance that the strategy of the fund will achieve this
objective.
Net new money and assets under management
(EUR million) as of 31.12.2016
HSBC GIF Euroland EquityFund details and assets under
management
-
49Non contractual document
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (France). The information
contained above does not constitute a commitment from HSBC Global
Asset Management (France) and is subject to change without
prior notice. For information purposes only, the fund may not be
registered for sale in your country. Before subscription, investors
should refer to the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) of the
fund
as well as its complete prospectus. For more detailed
information on the risks associated with this fund, investors
should refer to the prospectus of the fund.
HSBC GIF Euroland EquityFund details
Legal Form
Sub-fund of Luxembourg UCITS IV HSBC Global Investment Funds
Valuation
Daily
Dealing
Daily by 10:00 (CET)
Execution
Trade Day
Settlement
Trade Day + 4 business days
Management Company
HSBC Investment Fund (Lux.) SA
Custodian and transfer agent
HSBC Bank Plc. Luxembourg Branch
Recommended investment horizon
Minimum 5 years
Main Risks
Equity risk, Capital loss risk
Launch Date
04 April 2003
Reference Currency
Euro
Dealing currencies
EUR, USD, PLN
Management Fees
1.50% (A) | 0.75% (I)
Performance Fees
None
Subscription/Redemption Fees
5.54% max./None
Minimum Initial Investment
A Share Class: USD5,000; I Share Class: USD1,000,000
Share Type
Accumulation (C) or Distribution (D)
ISIN Codes
AC: LU0165074666
AD: LU0165074740
IC: LU0165074823
ID: LU0165075127
Publication of Net Asset Value
www.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/fr
-
50Non contractual document
HSBC GIF Euroland EquityMaterials
Source: HSBC Global Asset Management. For illustrative purposes
only.
Fund overview(s) One-on-One’s
Europe Insights
Standard presentation(s)
4-page reporting Campaigns
-
51Non contractual document
This document is produced and distributed by HSBC Global Asset
Management (France) and is only intended for professional investors
as defined by MIFID. All non-authorised reproduction or use
of this commentary and analysis will be the responsibility of
the user and will be likely to lead to legal proceedings. This
document has no contractual value and is not by any means intended
as a
solicitation, nor an investment advice for the purchase or sale
of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction in which such an
offer is not lawful. The commentary and analysis presented in
this
document reflect the opinion of HSBC Global Asset Management on
the markets, according to the information available to date. They
do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Global
Asset Management (France). Consequently, HSBC Global Asset
Management (France) will not be held responsible for any investment
or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the
commentary and/or analysis in this document. The performance
figures displayed in the document relate to the past and past
performance should not be seen as an indication of future returns.
It is
important to remember that the value of investments and any
income from them can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed.
Capital is not guaranteed. Fluctuations in the rate of exchange
of
currencies may have a significant impact on fund performance.
Funds that invest in securities listed on a stock exchange or
market could be affected by general changes in the stock market.
The
value of investments can go down as well as up due to equity
markets movements. Please note that the strategies are authorised
to invest in small and mid-cap stocks, which can present a
greater
risk for the investor. All data come from HSBC Global Asset
Management (France) unless otherwise specified. Any third party
information has been obtained from sources we believe to be
reliable,
but which we have not independently verified. The funds
presented in this document may not be registered and/or authorised
for sale in your country. HSBC GIF Euroland Equity is a sub-fund
of
HSBC Global Investment Funds, a Luxemburg domiciled SICAV.
HSBC GIF Euroland Equity is a sub-fund of HSBC Global Investment
Funds , a Luxemburg domiciled SICAV. Shares of the Company may not
be offered or sold for sale or sold to any "U.S. Person
within the meaning of the Articles of Incorporation, ie a
citizen or resident of the United States of America (the "United
States"), a partnership organised or existing under the laws of any
state,
territory or possession of the United States, or a corporation
organised or existing under the laws of the United States or of any
state, territory or possession thereof, or any estate or trust,
other than
an estate or trust the income of which from sources outside the
United States is not includible in gross income for purposes of
computing United States income tax payable by it. Before
subscription,
investors should refer to the Key Investor Document (KIID) of
the fund as well as its complete prospectus. For more detailed
information on the risks associated with this fund, investors
should refer
to the complete prospectus of the fund.
This material is solely for the attention of institutional,
professional, qualified or sophisticated investors and
distributors. It is not to be distributed to the general public,
private customers or retail
investors in any jurisdiction
Funds that invest in securities listed on a stock exchange or
market could be affected by general changes in the stock market.
The value of investments can go down as well as up due to
equity
markets movements. Investment in Financial Derivative
Instruments (FDI) may result in losses in excess of the amount
invested. This is because a small movement in the price of the
underlying
financial instrument may result in a substantial movement in the
price of the FDI.
Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your
internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form
and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any
financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI
information is intended to constitute investment advice or a
recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of
investment
decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and
analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any
future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI
information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this
information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this
information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person
involved in or
related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information
(collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all
warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of
originality,
accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement,
merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect
to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no
event shall any
MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special,
incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation,
lost profits) or any other damages (www.mscibarra.com).
Important information for Luxembourg investors: HSBC entities in
Luxembourg are regulated and authorised by the Commission de
Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF).
Important information for Swiss investors: This document may be
distributed in Switzerland only to qualified investors according to
Art. 10 para 3, 3bis and 3ter of the Federal Collective
Investment
Schemes Act (CISA). The presented fund is authorised for
distribution in Switzerland in the meaning of Art. 120 of the
Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act. (Potential) investors
are kindly
asked to consult the latest issued Key Investor Information
Document (KIID), prospectus, articles of incorporation and the
(semi-)annual report of the fund which may be obtained free of
charge at the
head office of the representative: HSBC Global Asset Management
(Switzerland) Ltd., Gartenstrasse 26, P.O. Box, CH-8002 Zurich.
Paying agent: HSBC Private Bank (Suisse) S.A., Quai des
Bergues 9-17, P. O. Box 2888, CH-1211 Geneva 1.
HSBC Global Asset Management is the brand name for the asset
management business of HSBC Group. The above document has been
produced by HSBC Global Asset Management (France) and
has been approved for distribution/issue by the following
entities :
HSBC Global Asset Management (France) - 421 345 489 RCS
Nanterre. Portfolio management company authorised by the French
regulatory authority AMF (no. GP99026) with capital of
8.050.320
euros.
Offices: HSBC Global Asset Management (France) - Immeuble Coeur
Défense - 110, esplanade du Général Charles de Gaulle - 92400
Courbevoie - La Défense 4 – France. (Website:
www.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/fr).
Copyright © 2017. HSBC Global Asset Management (France). All
rights reserved. Updated in January 2017.
AMFR_Ext_40_2017
Important information
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