European Environment Agency Budapest University of Technology and Economics László Somlyódy Chair, Scientific Committee of EEA CONTEXT SETTING AND EXPECTED OUTCOMES Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, www.vkkt.bme.hu Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability EEA Workshop, Copenhagen, 14-15 May 2007
32
Embed
European Environment Agency Budapest University of Technology and Economics László Somlyódy Chair, Scientific Committee of EEA CONTEXT SETTING AND EXPECTED.
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
European Environment Agency
Budapest University of Technology and
Economics
László SomlyódyChair, Scientific
Committee of EEA
CONTEXT SETTING AND EXPECTED OUTCOMES
Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, www.vkkt.bme.hu
Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability
EEA Workshop, Copenhagen, 14-15 May 2007
European Environment Agency
Presence Future
Scenarios
Strategy, information and research
GoalsIndicators
European Environment Agency
Comprehensive global or European- scale environmental scenarios
- Full coverage?
- Feed-backs?
- Surprise free scenarios?
- Emerging issues?
EEA (2005)
Scenarios Time horizon
EEA 2010-
SEI 2050
IPCC 2100
MEA 2050
OECD 2020
UNEP 2030s
WBCSD 2050
WWW 2025
- Many different scenarios & time horizons (2010-2100)
European Environment Agency
Presence FutureScience Strategy
Methods
Information
GoalsIndicators
Scenarios
Strategy, information and research
European Environment Agency
The DPSIR assessment framework
European Environment Agency
Presence FutureScience Strategy
Methods
Information
Forsight
Research + Policy
GoalsIndicators
Scenarios
Strategy, information and research
European Environment Agency
Knowledge and ignorance
Knowing
Not-knowing
01
IgnoranceRisk UncertaintyRecognized ignorance
P. Harremoes (2001)P. Harremoes (2001)
European Environment Agency
Presence FutureScience Strategy
Methods
Information
Forsight
Uncertainties Surprises
Research + Policy
GoalsIndicators
Scenarios
EEA
Strategy, information and research
European Environment Agency
Europe and external impacts
European Environment Agency
Key interactions between different environmental concerns („environmental future”)
- Non-point sources as an example? EEA (2005)
Phosphorus emission (kg P/ha/y)
Estimation of non-point source TP emissions in Hungary: sub-basin level