European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 1 EU Climate policies &Bio-energy Estonian conference on “The contribution of agriculture to.

European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 1

EU Climate policies EU Climate policies & &

Bio-energyBio-energy

Estonian conference on Estonian conference on ““The contribution of agriculture to energy production”The contribution of agriculture to energy production”

Talinn, 7 Ocotber 2005Talinn, 7 Ocotber 2005

Erik TangErik Tang

Climate Change & energyClimate Change & energy

DG EnvironmentDG Environment


The state of playThe state of play::The Science is robustThe Science is robust

• Most of the earth’s warming Most of the earth’s warming over the last 50 years (0.6over the last 50 years (0.6°° C) C) can be attributed to human can be attributed to human activitiesactivities

• Global temperature will increase by 1.4 – 5.8°C over next 100 years

Source: IPCC TAR


• Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversityTerrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

• Glaciers, snow and iceGlaciers, snow and ice

• Marine ecosystemsMarine ecosystems

• AgricultureAgriculture

• EconomyEconomy

• Human healthHuman health

Factual signsFactual signs::Impacts in EuropeImpacts in Europe

EEA (2004): Impact of Europe’s changing climate


Climate change impacts: Agricultural Climate change impacts: Agricultural yields will be affectedyields will be affected


Where do we stand today now?Where do we stand today now?

Impact of climate policies on emission trends in EU-15 ('Bubble'), (most recent data of 2002)

9092949698

100102104106108110

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

year

19

90

em

iss

ion

s =

10

0

Business as usual

with actual policymeasures

with envisaged policymeasures

Linear Kyoto Path


Where do we stand today now- EU10 Where do we stand today now- EU10


Where do we stand today now- EU25 Where do we stand today now- EU25

Figure 1:Actual and projected emissions for EU-25 and EU-15

90

95

100

105

110

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

ba

se y

ea

r e

mis

sio

ns=

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EU-25 emissions

EU-25 existing measures

EU-25 additionalmeasuresEU-15 emissions

EU-15 existing measures

EU-15 additionalmeasuresEU-15 target (Kyoto)

EU-15 target + KyotomechanismsBusiness as usual

Linear target path

Kyoto mechanisms

Note: Data exclude emissions and removals from land-use change and forestry.The figure refers to a theoretical EU-25 base-year as 100 in order to allow a consistent analysis of greenhouse gas emission trends and projections.This base-year for EU-25 has no legal status.It is 1990 for most Member States for CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) but 1995 for fluorinated gases, with the following exceptions: The base year for CO2, CH4 and N2O for Hungary is the average of 1985-1987, for Slovenia 1986 and for Poland 1988; the base year for fluorinated gases is 1990 for France and Finland.This means that the value for 1990 is not exactly 100.Cyprus and Malta are not included due to lack of data and because they do not have targets under the Kyoto Protocol. The linear target path shows the theoretical linear decrease in GHG emissions up to the Kyoto target from the base year level until 2010, the mid-term year of the first commitment period.

Source: EEA, 2005


The 550ppm scenario: Cut global emission The 550ppm scenario: Cut global emission by 15-20% by 2050 as compared to 1990by 15-20% by 2050 as compared to 1990

0

10

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30

40

50

60

70

80

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

O2-

eq)

Baseline

S550e

S650e

Source: GCNRS/LEPII-EPE/RIVM/MNP/ICCS-NTUA/CES-KUL study


major impacts on future energy systems major impacts on future energy systems

Source: GCNRS/LEPII-EPE/RIVM/MNP/ICCS-NTUA/CES-KUL study


Energy efficiency is key in reducing Energy efficiency is key in reducing global GHG emissions global GHG emissions


ECCP: Most important EU legislation in implementation relating to climate change

PAMPAM Reducion Reducion potential (Mt potential (Mt CO2-eq.)CO2-eq.)

Entry into forceEntry into force Starting to Starting to deliverdeliver

EU emission trading schemeEU emission trading scheme -- 20032003 20052005

Link JI/CDM to emission tradingLink JI/CDM to emission trading -- 20042004 2005/2005/20082008

Revision of the Monitoring DecisionRevision of the Monitoring Decision -- 20042004 --

Dir. on the promotion of CHPDir. on the promotion of CHP 6565 20042004 20062006

Dir. on energy performance of buildingsDir. on energy performance of buildings 35-4535-45 20032003 20062006

Dir. on the promotion of transport bio-fuelsDir. on the promotion of transport bio-fuels 35-4035-40 20032003 20052005

Dir. on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy Dir. on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sourcessources

100-125100-125 20012001 20032003

Landfill directiveLandfill directive 4141 19991999 20002000

ACEA voluntary agreementACEA voluntary agreement 75-8075-80 19981998 19991999

Energy labelling directivesEnergy labelling directives 2020 19921992 19931993


Develop new technologies: Reverse spending on Develop new technologies: Reverse spending on international R&D for energyinternational R&D for energy


EU agricultural emissions decreased EU agricultural emissions decreased 8% in 1990 -20018% in 1990 -2001


post 2012 : objective and processpost 2012 : objective and process

EU goal : limit global warming to 2°CEU goal : limit global warming to 2°C European Spring Council March 2005: European Spring Council March 2005:

““looks forward to considering medium and longer term emission looks forward to considering medium and longer term emission reduction strategies, including targets” / Commission is invited “to reduction strategies, including targets” / Commission is invited “to prepare a report on benefits and costs taking account both of prepare a report on benefits and costs taking account both of environmental and competitiveness considerations”environmental and competitiveness considerations”

ISC group on post 2012ISC group on post 2012 stakeholder consultation (170 replies in total, stakeholder consultation (170 replies in total,

including CEPF, future forests, CEPI)including CEPF, future forests, CEPI) Commission report to be issued in January 2005Commission report to be issued in January 2005


issues post 2012 & agriculture & issues post 2012 & agriculture & forestry sectorforestry sector

climate change impacts : EU & world-climate change impacts : EU & world-wide (costs of non action)wide (costs of non action)

adaptation : EU & world-wideadaptation : EU & world-wide LULUCF (deforestation, sinks) LULUCF (deforestation, sinks) mitigation strategies : bio-energy as a CO2 mitigation strategies : bio-energy as a CO2

neutral energy sourceneutral energy source


agricultural & forestry sector & climate agricultural & forestry sector & climate change change

nitrates directive nitrates directive RES-E Directive RES-E Directive biofuels directivebiofuels directive Common Agricultural Policy – set aside and Common Agricultural Policy – set aside and

energy crops schemeenergy crops scheme Rural Development Policy (forestry)Rural Development Policy (forestry)looking forward : looking forward : Biomass action Plan Biomass action Plan Structural & Cohesion Funds 2007-2013Structural & Cohesion Funds 2007-2013 Future 2020 targets for RES?Future 2020 targets for RES?


ETS & (biomass) renewablesETS & (biomass) renewables

one uniform price/ EU market for COone uniform price/ EU market for CO22

allowances…allowances… affecting the competitive situation of the affecting the competitive situation of the

various primary energy sources various primary energy sources renewables get cost advantage as they do renewables get cost advantage as they do

not need to surrender COnot need to surrender CO22 allowances allowances

liberalisation opens market for innovative liberalisation opens market for innovative suppliers, eg. renewablessuppliers, eg. renewables

European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 18Source: Point Carbon's Carbon Market Daily

3 October 2005EUA 2005 (€/tCO2)

€22.75

Traded Volumes, January 2004 - August 2005

0

20

40

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100

120

140

month/year

millio

n t

on

s C

O2

monthly

cumulative

EU ETS: price and traded volumesEU ETS: price and traded volumes



impact on improved competitiveness of bio-impact on improved competitiveness of bio-energy depends on allowance price (scarcity)energy depends on allowance price (scarcity)

expected moderate prices in first trial period will expected moderate prices in first trial period will bring limited incentives, but :bring limited incentives, but : can tip the balance for near competitive applications raises awareness of carbon constraint and search for

alternatives to fossil fuels comes on top of other dedicated instruments (eg. RES-

E) … and high oil prices



short term direct impacts: short term direct impacts: increased use of co-firing in coal power plants increased use of biomass in pulp&paper

longer term : allowance price impacts on longer term : allowance price impacts on investments decisions; make or buy decision for energy usersemergence of new “low carbon energy”

suppliers


JI/CDM link to ETSJI/CDM link to ETS

An indirect link exists as of 2008 through An indirect link exists as of 2008 through international emissions tradinginternational emissions trading

Linking proposal: to provide more flexibility Linking proposal: to provide more flexibility and certainty to legal entitiesand certainty to legal entities

In concrete terms, linking means that JI/CDM In concrete terms, linking means that JI/CDM credits can be used by operators to fulfil their credits can be used by operators to fulfil their domestic obligationdomestic obligation

Linking implies the recognition of JI/CDM Linking implies the recognition of JI/CDM credits as equivalent to allowancescredits as equivalent to allowances


JI/CDM link to ETSJI/CDM link to ETS

avoiding double counting : no ERUs for installations avoiding double counting : no ERUs for installations covered by the Directivecovered by the Directive

Baseline takes into account environmental acquis in Baseline takes into account environmental acquis in EU and accession countriesEU and accession countries

provisions for control of MS which projects “come provisions for control of MS which projects “come in”in”


bio-energy scenario 2010 – 2020 :bio-energy scenario 2010 – 2020 : GHG emission reductions GHG emission reductions

http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy/res/sectors/doc/bioenergy/bioenergy_role_2000_2010_2020.pdf

http://europa.eu.int/comm/energy/res/sectors/doc/bioenergy/bioenergy_role_2000_2010_2020.pdf


bio-energy scenario 2020 : energybio-energy scenario 2020 : energy


outlook for bio-energyoutlook for bio-energy

Review RES-E DirectiveReview RES-E Directive Biomass action Plan Biomass action Plan Common Agricultural Policy & Rural Common Agricultural Policy & Rural

Development PolicyDevelopment Policy Structural&Cohesion Funds 2007-2013Structural&Cohesion Funds 2007-2013 Future 2020 targets for RESFuture 2020 targets for RES

09/2005Slide 26

Well-to-Wheels analysis Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and of future automotive fuels and powertrainspowertrainsin the European contextin the European context

A joint study by A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWEEUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE

Overview of ResultsOverview of Results

09/2005Slide 27

General Observations: CostsGeneral Observations: Costs

A shift to renewable / low carbon sources is currently costlyA shift to renewable / low carbon sources is currently costly However, high cost does not always result in high GHG emission

reductions At comparable costs GHG savings can vary considerably

The cost of COThe cost of CO22 avoidance using conventional biofuels is around avoidance using conventional biofuels is around

150-300 €/ton CO2 when oil is at 25 €/bbl

50-200 €/ton CO2 when oil is at 50 €/bbl

Syn-diesel, DME and ethanol from wood have the potential to save Syn-diesel, DME and ethanol from wood have the potential to save substantially more GHG emissions than current bio-fuel options at substantially more GHG emissions than current bio-fuel options at comparable or lower cost per tonne of COcomparable or lower cost per tonne of CO22 avoided. avoided.

Issues such as land and biomass resources, material collection, plant size, efficiency and costs, may limit the application of these processes

09/2005Slide 28

Potential of biomass residuesPotential of biomass residues

Availability of biomass for Availability of biomass for biofuelsbiofuels is less than for is less than for bio-energybio-energy:: Advanced biofuels plants need to be large for reasonable economics Crop residues are mostly highly dispersed: better suited to local heating.

STRAW is the most concentrated residueSTRAW is the most concentrated residue can be taken when soil water-retention is not critical that means in the best cereals-growing areas: 37% of EU 25 wheat Straw/grain ratio about 0.65 in these high-yield regions total about 600 PJ/y

FOREST RESIDUALS cost rises steeply with transport distanceFOREST RESIDUALS cost rises steeply with transport distance above 365 PJ/y in EU 25 it becomes more expensive than pulp wood practically all wood-industry waste is recycled inside the industry

BIOGAS availability depends on price: BIOGAS availability depends on price: much of the potential feedstock is too dispersed for economic plant size

09/2005Slide 29

Alternative use of primary energy resources - Alternative use of primary energy resources - BiomassBiomass

Wood gasification or direct use of biomass for heat and power offers greatest GHG savings

Potential for CO2 avoidance from 1 ha of land

Reference case:

2010 ICE with

Conventional fuel

COCO22 savings per hectare savings per hectare are better for advanced are better for advanced biomass than ethanol or biomass than ethanol or biodieselbiodiesel

Using biomass for Using biomass for electricity generation electricity generation offers even greater offers even greater savingssavings

-5

0

5

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20

25

Wood

to e

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(vs

NG)

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Sugar

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anol

Wood

to E

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eds

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ICE

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to F

T die

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to F

T die

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inc.

Nap

htha)

Wood

to D

ME

t C

O2

avo

ided

/ h

a/a

Electricity

Wood processing

Conventional biofuels

09/2005Slide 30

ConclusionsConclusions

A shift to renewable/low fossil carbon routes may offer a significant GHG reduction A shift to renewable/low fossil carbon routes may offer a significant GHG reduction potential but generally requires more energy. The specific pathway is criticalpotential but generally requires more energy. The specific pathway is critical

No single fuel pathway offers a short term route to high volumes of “low carbon” fuel.No single fuel pathway offers a short term route to high volumes of “low carbon” fuel. Contributions from a number of technologies/routes will be needed. A wider variety of fuels may be expected in the market Blends with conventional fuels and niche applications should be considered if

they can produce significant GHG reductions at reasonable cost Transport applications may not maximize the GHG reduction potential of renewable Transport applications may not maximize the GHG reduction potential of renewable

energiesenergies Optimum use of renewable energy sources such as biomass and wind requires Optimum use of renewable energy sources such as biomass and wind requires

consideration of the overall energy demand including stationary applicationsconsideration of the overall energy demand including stationary applications More efficient use of renewables may be achieved through direct use as

electricity rather than road fuels applications

09/2005Slide 31

The study report will be available on the WEB:The study report will be available on the WEB:

http://http://ies.jrc.cec.eu.inties.jrc.cec.eu.int/WTW/WTW

For For questions / inquiries / requests / notesquestions / inquiries / requests / notes

to the consortium, to the consortium,

please use the centralised mail address:please use the centralised mail address:

[email protected]@jrc.it

Well-to-Wheels analysis Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrainsof future automotive fuels and powertrainsin the European contextin the European context

http://ies.jrc.cec.eu.int/WTW



European Commission: Environment Directorate General Slide: 1 EU Climate policies &Bio-energy Estonian conference on “The contribution of agriculture to.

Documents

environment slide

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