European Commission: 1 Climate Change and Transport 11 December 2007 Hans Meijer European Commission DG ENV C3.

European Commission: 1

Climate Change and TransportClimate Change and Transport

11 December 200711 December 2007

Hans Meijer Hans Meijer European CommissionEuropean Commission

DG ENV C3DG ENV C3


Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview

Climate Change introductionClimate Change introduction Transport and Climate ChangeTransport and Climate Change Fuel QualityFuel Quality COCO22 and cars and cars

Maritime TransportMaritime Transport AviationAviation ConclusionsConclusions


Ten warmest years on record Ten warmest years on record

19981998200520052003200320022002200420042006200620012001199719971995199519991999

Source UN – International Meteorological OrganisationSource UN – International Meteorological Organisation


Sea level riseSea level rise

0.15-0.20 m since 19900.15-0.20 m since 1990 0.55 – 1.2m by 21000.55 – 1.2m by 2100


Climate response timesClimate response times


Winners and losersWinners and losers

Changes in Mean Changes in Mean Annual Annual

TemperatureTemperature


EU15 – COEU15 – CO2 emissions (1990 -2004) emissions (1990 -2004)


EU15 Transport GHG EmissionsEU15 Transport GHG Emissions


EU climate actionEU climate action

EU has agreed a 20% reduction in GHG EU has agreed a 20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 (30% if emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 (30% if other developed countries take similar action)other developed countries take similar action)

-60-80% by 2050 (EU Heads of states, March -60-80% by 2050 (EU Heads of states, March 2007)2007)

Transport currently represents almost 30% of Transport currently represents almost 30% of EU GHG emissions.EU GHG emissions.

Transport is the only major EU sector where Transport is the only major EU sector where emissions are increasing.emissions are increasing.


Cost of inactionCost of inaction

Costs of inaction: 5-20% of global GDP (Stern Review)Costs of inaction: 5-20% of global GDP (Stern Review)

Costs of global action (2030):Costs of global action (2030): Investment costs: 0.5% of global GDP per year Reduce global GDP growth by 0.19% per year Reduce global GDP growth by 0.12 % per year (IPCC WG3)

Co-benefits:Co-benefits: Increased energy security Improved competitiveness through innovation Health benefits from reduced air pollution Preparation for post fossil fuels

Does not include avoided climate change costsDoes not include avoided climate change costs


27 Gt of emission reductions 27 Gt of emission reductions possibilities below possibilities below € € 40 per ton CO40 per ton CO22


What needs to be done?What needs to be done?

PossibilitiesPossibilities Reduce demand for transport Increase energy efficiency of transport Reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of energy

used in transport Probably need to do allProbably need to do all Reducing fuel GHG intensity cannot be Reducing fuel GHG intensity cannot be

done without assessing fuel life cycle done without assessing fuel life cycle emissionsemissions


Reducing GHG emissions from road Reducing GHG emissions from road transport fuel (Low Carbon fuel standard)transport fuel (Low Carbon fuel standard)


How did EU LCFS come about?How did EU LCFS come about?

Transport GHGTransport GHG

emissionsemissions

Low Carbon Low Carbon

Fuel StandardFuel Standard

Review of Review of

Directive 98/70Directive 98/70

New fossil New fossil

fuelsfuels

Biofuel policyBiofuel policy20% GHG 20% GHG

reduction targetreduction target

CO2 and CO2 and

cars policycars policy


Why a LCFS is importantWhy a LCFS is important

Increasing diversity of transport energy supplyIncreasing diversity of transport energy supply Focus on the type of fuel is no longer sufficient (all Focus on the type of fuel is no longer sufficient (all

biofuel is not the same)biofuel is not the same) To make users pay for the cost of decarbonising To make users pay for the cost of decarbonising

fuelfuel To provide incentive to develop better low-carbon To provide incentive to develop better low-carbon

fuel technologiesfuel technologies To ensure lowest cost approach to fuel To ensure lowest cost approach to fuel

decarbonisation.decarbonisation. Technology neutral – no picking winnersTechnology neutral – no picking winners


Political stepsPolitical steps

Commission adopted proposal for modification of Commission adopted proposal for modification of Directive 98/70 in Jan 2007Directive 98/70 in Jan 2007

Proposal contains a political objective of 10% Proposal contains a political objective of 10% decarbonisation of transport fuel between 2010 and 2020decarbonisation of transport fuel between 2010 and 2020

European Parliament supportive of the proposed European Parliament supportive of the proposed approach, Plenary vote January 2008approach, Plenary vote January 2008

Member States in the Council have generally welcomed Member States in the Council have generally welcomed the goal. 25 Out of 27 MS support proposal (October 30)the goal. 25 Out of 27 MS support proposal (October 30)

Commission working hard to develop detailed Commission working hard to develop detailed methodology that will be needed to calculate GHG methodology that will be needed to calculate GHG savingssavings


COCO22 and cars and cars


Revised CORevised CO22 and cars strategy and cars strategy

Communication February 2007 (proposal end 2007):Communication February 2007 (proposal end 2007):• 120 g delivered in 2012 through an “integrated 120 g delivered in 2012 through an “integrated

approach”approach” a) 130 g (46.4mpg) on the vehicle side (fleet average);b) 10 g through additional measures on car components

(tyres, airco etc.) and increased use of biofuels.

• Review in 2010 to assess potential for progress Review in 2010 to assess potential for progress beyond 120g/2012beyond 120g/2012

• Estimated cumulated savings 2010-2020: > 800 Mt Estimated cumulated savings 2010-2020: > 800 Mt CO2eqCO2eq


The automotive value chain remains at The automotive value chain remains at the heart of the new strategy…the heart of the new strategy…

Vehicle technology improvements (engine, transmission, hybridisation, vehicle body etc.)

Efficiency requirements for air-conditioning systems

Tyre pressure monitoring systemsLow rolling resistance tyresGear shift indicatorsMandatory fuel efficiency targets for light-

commercial vehicles

Revised CORevised CO22 and cars strategy ( and cars strategy (22))


Example of a label: NetherlandsExample of a label: Netherlands


Heavy duty vehiclesHeavy duty vehicles

Commission has recently been studying the Commission has recently been studying the degree of which road haulage sector takes up degree of which road haulage sector takes up potential GHG reducing measurespotential GHG reducing measures

Report not finalized but clear that there remain Report not finalized but clear that there remain significant opportunities to reduce GHG significant opportunities to reduce GHG emissionsemissions

Commission will need to decide what further Commission will need to decide what further action to take when final report is readyaction to take when final report is ready


International Maritime TransportInternational Maritime Transport


Progress in IMO / UNFCCCProgress in IMO / UNFCCC

Kyoto Protocol – obliges parties to work through Kyoto Protocol – obliges parties to work through IMOIMO

IMO first addressed issue in 1997IMO first addressed issue in 1997 Pilot study on COPilot study on CO22 indexing – will report in 2008 indexing – will report in 2008 Commitment to ‘consider…methods for dealing’ Commitment to ‘consider…methods for dealing’

with GHG emissions 2008/2009with GHG emissions 2008/2009 No view on binding reduction measures yetNo view on binding reduction measures yet Post 2012 negotiations to conclude in 2008!Post 2012 negotiations to conclude in 2008! EU aims to include emissions shipping hereEU aims to include emissions shipping here


IMO COIMO CO22 Index Index


EU Policy OptionsEU Policy Options

Actively examining options for EU actionActively examining options for EU actionOption 1 - Include shipping in EU ETS Option 2 - Variation in harbour duesOption 3 - Mandatory CO2 index limit

Others…..


AviationAviation


Aviation & EU ETSAviation & EU ETS

Commission proposal for to include aviation activities in EU Commission proposal for to include aviation activities in EU ETS adopted end 2006 (COM(2006)818)ETS adopted end 2006 (COM(2006)818)

CO2 emissions only, details not finalizedCO2 emissions only, details not finalized Intra-EU flights in 2011, expanded to all flights arriving in or Intra-EU flights in 2011, expanded to all flights arriving in or

departing from the EU from 2012departing from the EU from 2012 Not apply to flights arriving from 3Not apply to flights arriving from 3rdrd country that has country that has

comparable measures in placecomparable measures in place Still discussions on percentage of allowances to be auctioned Still discussions on percentage of allowances to be auctioned

and allowances to be allocated for free on basis of a and allowances to be allocated for free on basis of a benchmark benchmark

Aircraft operators can buy allowances from other trading Aircraft operators can buy allowances from other trading sectors and use CDM creditssectors and use CDM credits


Aviation & EU ETS: ICAOAviation & EU ETS: ICAO International aviation emissions not included in Kyoto targets, International aviation emissions not included in Kyoto targets,

Annex I Parties to “…Annex I Parties to “…pursue limitation or reduction of [GHG pursue limitation or reduction of [GHG emissions of from aviation], working through the ICAO”emissions of from aviation], working through the ICAO”

ICAO discussions on market-based measures since 1991 and ICAO discussions on market-based measures since 1991 and emissions trading since 1998emissions trading since 1998

2001 ICAO Assembly:2001 ICAO Assembly: Endorsed development open emissions trading for international

aviation; Requested ICAO Council to develop guidelines as a matter of priority

2007 ICAO Assembly:2007 ICAO Assembly: Opposition to application of ETS without mutual consent Strong difference in opinion resulting in formal reserve on ICAO

resolution by 42 Member States of the European Civil Aviation Conference (including 27 EU Member States)


Next stepsNext steps European Parliament Nov 2007:European Parliament Nov 2007:

Start for incoming & outgoing in 2011 Cap at 90% of average 2004-6 emissions 25% auctioning, increased to max level other sectors after 2012 Multiplier of 2 to reflect NOx emissions CDM/JI cap includes access to ETS Weight threshold increase for companies in offset schemes New entrants reserve

Council 1Council 1stst reading by end of 2007 reading by end of 2007 Adoption in the course of 2008Adoption in the course of 2008


ConclusionsConclusions

Debate is needed on contribution transport to meeting Debate is needed on contribution transport to meeting EU GHG emission targetsEU GHG emission targets

Time frame about 30 years: about the lifetime of ships, Time frame about 30 years: about the lifetime of ships, planes, locomotives which are bought now!planes, locomotives which are bought now!

Attention to side effects: cost of acting now vs cost of Attention to side effects: cost of acting now vs cost of inaction; reduce GHG can go along with low air inaction; reduce GHG can go along with low air pollution and low noise pollution and low noise better quality of life better quality of life

At this moment: dependency on transport still increasing At this moment: dependency on transport still increasing Better planning offices/factories/shopping centres! Better planning offices/factories/shopping centres!

The larger reductions of energy intensity are, the lower The larger reductions of energy intensity are, the lower need to reduce transport itselfneed to reduce transport itself

Transport costs likely to increase but at the moment Transport costs likely to increase but at the moment small percentage of cost final product.small percentage of cost final product.


Relevant links Relevant links

Life + (strategic Priorities: Life + (strategic Priorities: Climate ChangeClimate Change, Noise, Urban Areas, Air , Noise, Urban Areas, Air Quality)Quality)

hhttp://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/funding/lifeplus.htmttp://ec.europa.eu/environment/life/funding/lifeplus.htm

Research to quantify the climate impact of the global and European Research to quantify the climate impact of the global and European transport systems for the present situation and for different scenarios of transport systems for the present situation and for different scenarios of future developmentfuture development

http://ip-quantify.eu/http://ip-quantify.eu/

European Assessment of Transport Impacts on Climate Change and European Assessment of Transport Impacts on Climate Change and Ozone DepletionOzone Depletion

http://www.ssa-attica.euhttp://www.ssa-attica.eu

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/transport.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/transport.htm


Own roleOwn role

European Commission: 1 Climate Change and Transport 11 December 2007 Hans Meijer European Commission DG ENV C3.

Documents

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