European Airline Capacity – Winter 2013/14 Boeing ...aviation.itu.edu.tr/\img\aviation\datafiles/Lecture Notes/Network... · Focus Carrier Section includes Lufthansa, Ryanair, Air
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Executive Summary Scheduled capacity to/from/within Europe up 5.3% YoY (by ASKs), led by
Turkish, Norwegian, LCCs. Air France, IAG cutting back on intra-Europe capacity.
− Europe ASKs expanding yet still lags global ASK growth (7.6%) − Turkish, Norwegian continue rapid expansion with double-digit ASK growth
Flag carriers cutting intra-Western Europe frequencies for the winter while Turkish, Norwegian, and Ryanair expand
− Despite ASK capacity growth, frequency growth flat as increases by Turkish (23%), LCCs are offset by Lufthansa (-4%), Air France/KLM (-17%), IAG (-13%) cuts
Europe-Middle East continues to be fastest growing regional flow at 10%+
− All regional flows positive, or near positive, YoY growth after volatile 2013
Istanbul Ataturk Airport posting 8% YoY capacity growth; now 4th largest airport by seat capacity
− Spain and Italy continue to face challenges; Madrid, Rome, Barcelona airports are biggest losers
Focus Carrier Section includes Lufthansa, Ryanair, Air France / KLM, British Airways/Iberia(IAG),and Air Berlin Supplemental focus section: European airline financials 3rd quarter earnings
3 Source: Innovata, Dec 2013 database, commercial jets >= 30 seats for flights from, within, and to Europe. Analysis uses Mktg Airline.
Europe Capacity Comparison - ASKs Dec 2013 vs. Dec 2012 weekly available-seat-kilometers (ASKs)
European capacity up (ASKs ↑5.3%); intra-Europe capacity shifting away from AF, IAG Turkish Airlines moves to 4th largest operator (by ASKs) after 19% YoY capacity increase
7
4% 42%
3%
9%
2%
0%
-2%
Source: Innovata, Dec 2013 database, commercial jets >= 30 seats for flights from, within, and to Europe. Analysis uses Mktg Airline.
7%
3%
19%
↓W. Europe -17% ↑ Carribbean – 46%
↑ Africa – 11% ↑ C. America – 35%
↓E. Europe -28%
↑ former Soviet– NEW ↑ Africa – 14%
↑ Mid East – 5% ↓W. Europe -35%
↑ W. Europe– 34% ↑ US – NEW
↑ SE Asia– NEW
↑ W. Europe – 19% ↑ US – 26%
↑ Japan – 73% ↑ India – 50%
↑ SE Asia – 28% ↑ India – 50%
*Key drivers of change by airline, ranked by impact ↑ Europe - Region – %chg ↓Europe - Region -%chg
Dec 13 Seats (per week) (000s) Dec 12 Seats (per week) (000s)
Europe Fleet Dynamics December YoY Fleet Change by Total Available Weekly Seats
Single Aisle Twin Aisle
• Single-Aisle (↑5.1%): 737NG growth outpacing A320 (↑4%) but total market share largely unchanged
• Twin-Aisle (↑5.2%): Boeing takes 3% of Airbus twin-aisle market share compared to December 2012 with 777/787s entering fleets and A340 leaving fleets faster than 747s
Top 15 Europe Airports Ranked by size (December 2013 available originating seat capacity)
13
Total Europe seat capacity ↑ 3.4% in December year-over-year Istanbul Ataturk Airport continues strong year-over-year capacity growth (↑ 8%); 4th largest by Seat Capacity Frankfurt may be feeling pressure from Istanbul, Middle East Spain, Italy capacity down amidst continued uncertainty
Ranked largest to smallest, by seats
Source: Innovata, Dec 2013 database, commercial jets >= 30 seats for flights from, within, and to Europe. Analysis uses Mktg Airline.
3%
6%
-2%
8%
5% 4%
-12%
-6% -4%
4% 3%
8%
4%
-1%
4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Top 15 European Airports YoY Change in Seat Capacity
December schedules ↑ 12.6% YOY; AB aiming to cut costs 15% over the next two years “Turbine 2013” reducing fleet, focusing on short and medium-haul segments in core markets
o Expanding intra-Western Europe, US capacity; cutting Africa capacity
IAG (British Airways, Iberia) ASK Trends IAG December YOY schedules down 2.3% as BA growth offset by continued IB restructuring to focus on improving unit
revenues Iberia cutting capacity in all other markets except Eastern Europe…major drivers are in Western Europe (-21%), South
America (-16%), Caribbean (-100%) British Airways expanding in most markets except relatively small cuts to Japan, SE Asia, and Middle East…key capacity
growth markets are US (5%), Western Europe (4%), India (22%), and China + Asia (15%)