Europe in the Future! Sovereign Community or Multiple Nations
Jan 16, 2016
Introduction
• What will become of Europe in the next Century?
• The United States of Europe?
• Can Europe become a sovereign state?
• Will Europe be the only Superpower in the world?
Organizational Future?
• European Community (EC)
• North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
• European Free Trade Association (EFTA)
• Potential Organizations
The German Question
• How to achieve a harmonious relationship between the most populous, economically productive, technologically advanced, and military efficient nations in Europe and its smaller, less powerful neighbors?
Demographics Trends
• The Graying of Europe– High age of population
• Migration– Effected by the border countries
The Graying of Europe
• Declining of populations
• France– 10 M people aged over 60 out of 55 M rise to
15 M by 2020
• West Germany– Committing suicide 61 M to 45 M by 2030
(forecasting)
The Graying of Europe
• Ireland– natural replacement level
• Overall Europe– peak in 2000 (320 M) fall by 2100 (300 M) by
forecasting
Migration
• Germany, Austria, and Hungary– Immigrants from the former USSR and Eastern
Europe
• France, Spain, and Italy– Immigrants from North Africa and Middle
Eastern
Environmental Issues
• Degree of pollution– Northwestern Europe and Scandinavia– Mediterranean– Overall
• “clean energy” taxes
Types of Pollution
• The effects of global warming
• Rising sea level in low-lying areas
• Heavy-handed industrialization by Eastern Europe
• The massive growth populations surrounding the Mediterranean
Other Concerns
• Overseas aid– Europe countries contribute overseas aid for the
developing world by average more than any other developed countries (Chart)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
%of GNPA
ustr
ia
Irela
nd
U.K
.
Japan
Italy
Canada
Fin
land
Sw
eden
Neth
erlands
DA
C t
arg
et
Source: OECD (1987 figures)
Overseas Aid and National Income
Series1
Technologically-Driven Global Changes
• Biotech revolution in agriculture and food processing
• May lead to dependence on giant agrochemical conglomerates
A Robotics Revolution Exists but Probably Won’t Become as Important as Advances
in Biotechnology
• Decentralized• Rare in European industry• Rate of installation may be leveraged by Japanese
factories
Financial and Communications Revolution
• Multinational corporations• Bankers• Giant companies• Consultants, engineers and merchant bankers• Media conglomerates• Airlines
Problems with European Globalization
• Creation of a “social gulf”
• Contradiction of EC’s aim to deepening economic and political unity