Why citizens don’t vote for Europe Chris Aalberts HEBO: European elections www.chrisaalberts.nl
May 09, 2015
Why citizens don’t vote for Europe
Chris Aalberts
HEBO: European electionswww.chrisaalberts.nl
Why citizens don’t know
what they vote for in Europe
Chris Aalberts
HEBO: European electionswww.chrisaalberts.nl
HEBO: European elections
www.chrisaalberts.nl
Rational model of politics
People will… • Follow the media• Get more knowledge• Develop their opinions• Become politically active
Following the media
• Which sources of information do citizens use? • What kind of information is offered?
Two dimensions• Information - entertainment• General - niche audience
HEBO: European electionswww.chrisaalberts.nl
Four strategies
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Information Enter-tainment
Niche audience
General audience
News media
Newspapers, television news, etc.• General audience• Information
• European elections are not a major issue• News in the last week only• 2004: one story on RTL Nieuws
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Popularization
Television talk shows, infotainment, etc.• General audience• Entertainment
• Europe is generally not a topic• Less emphasis on the content• More emphasis on personality, image, etc.
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Festivals
I Vote Europe, European Bus Tour, etc.• Niche audience• Entertainment
• Organized because of the elections• Attracts a very specific audience• More or less information
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ICTs
YouTube, Twitter, Hyves, etc.• Niche audience• Information
• Image building of politicians• Attracts a very specific audience as well• More informative than festivals
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Which sources are most important?
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Information Enter-tainment
Niche audience
General audience
ICTs Festivals
News media Popularization
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Knowing politics
Citizens will… • Follow the media…• But they do not offer so much information…
• What kind of knowledge do citizens get? • Some statistics• Short quiz
Knowledge about the EU
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European Parliament
European Central Bank
Europese Commissie
European Court of Justice
European Council
European Court of Auditors
European Ombudsman
Economic and Social committee
Committee of the Regions
Information before the referendum
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
January March April May
Heard or read something
Feels uninformed
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Short quiz
• Mention five European Commissioners (out of 27 Commissioners)
• Mention five members of the European Parliament (out of 785 members)
For both groups• What are their portfolio?• What are their most important policy
proposals? • Where these good proposals? Why?
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Developing opinions
Citizens will… • Follow media that do not offer much
information• Not really get much knowledge
• What kind of opinions do they develop?• Some statistics • A short experiment
Satisfaction with European democracy
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10
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30
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50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Satisfied with national democracy
Satisfied with European democracy
Perceived effects of the EU
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Loss of jobs
More problems for farmers
Holland will pay more
Less influence of small countries
Increase of (drugs related) crime
Loss of national identity
Less use of the Dutch language
Economic crisis
Experiment (1)
• Survey question (Saris, 1997)
– If the European Parliament becomes more powerful, this will make the national parliament less powerful. Do you think that the European parliament should become more powerful?
– Do not know 24.5%– Yes, give them more power 33.3%– No, do not give them more power 42.2%
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Experiment (2)
• Let’s change the question slightly:
– Many problems are international. For example, 50% of the avid rain in the Netherlands comes from abroad. These problems can only be solved by international policies.
– If the European Parliament becomes more powerful, this will make the national parliament less powerful. Do you think that the European parliament should become more powerful?
HEBO: European electionswww.chrisaalberts.nl
Experiment (3)
• Question without extra information (no. 1)
– Do not know 24.5%– Yes, give them more power 33.3%– No, do not give them more power 42.2%
• Question with extra information (no. 2)
– Do not know 23.8%– Yes, give them more power 53.5%– No, do not give them more power 22.7%
HEBO: European electionswww.chrisaalberts.nl
HEBO: European elections
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Becoming active
People will… • Follow media that do not offer much
information• Not really get much knowledge• Not really develop stable opinions
• What effect does this have on participation?• Turnout • Party preferences
Turnout
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1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
European messages
Two dimensions: • For Europe - against Europe• Easy to understand - difficult to understand
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Four strategies
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AgainstEurope
In favor of Europe
Easy to understand
Difficult to understand
PVV: For Holland
• Against Europe• Easy to understand
Main points• The EU has been very negative for everyone• The EU is too expensive• The EU has too much influence on everything• There is just too much immigration
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D66: Europe, Yes!
• In favor of Europe• Easy to understand
Main points• Europe has been very positive for everyone• International problems can only be solved by
the EU• Holland is stronger because of the EU
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PvdA: strong and social
• In favor of Europe• Difficult to understand
Main points• Europe is positive… sometimes• And sometimes… not• Many different ‘small’ issues• Example: gender is passports is discriminatory
for transsexuals
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Christenunie/SGP: ?
• Against Europe• Difficult to understand
Main points• Focus on strong supporters who always vote• No clear public campaign• No clear opinions
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Who wins?
HEBO: European electionswww.chrisaalberts.nl
AgainstEurope
In favor of Europe
Easy to understand
Difficult to understand
D66PVV
PvdA
PvdD
VVD CDA
GroenLinks
SP
Christenunie/SGP
Conclusion (1)
• Citizens do not vote• Citizens do not know for whom to vote
This is not surprising• Citizens do not have opinions on Europe• Citizens are uninformed• Media do not provide them with enough
information
HEBO: European electionswww.chrisaalberts.nl
Conclusion (2)
Can we blame someone? • Citizens: not interested• Journalists: too much emphasis on ratings• Politicians: not willing to explain Europe
HEBO: European electionswww.chrisaalberts.nl