EUROPA 2020 | Comunicação do Professor Iain Begg

CHALLENGES FOR THE EU:

EUROPE 2020 AS AN

ANSWER

Iain BeggEuropean Institute, London School of Economics

SOME “GRAND CHALLENGES”

Demographic change: ageing Europe

Future „waves‟ of globalisation

New economy: knowledge, services

Climate change: the low carbon imperative

Energy security in a volatile world

Societal transformations

…and managing the exit from the crisis

INFLUENCES ON WELL-BEING

EMU, structural and labour market change and

other macroeconomic trends

Collective goods of different sorts

produced by different levels

of the state

Societal changesthat alter individual

trajectories and support networks

ECONOMIC RAMIFICATIONS

Relative ageing of the population

– Labour supply: the vexed issue of immigration

– Sustainability of pensions

The funding legacy left to the next generation(s)

– Care, health, „grey‟ consumers

The necessary shift to a low-carbon economy

– Business opportunities; social risks

A notion of „carbon justice‟ as well as social

Specialisations and supply-chains

– Fiscal sustainability of social model(s)

INTENSIFYING COMPETITION

BRICS and next tier of global competitors

The imperative of skills enhancement– Looking beyond education ratios

Life-long learning in practice

Increased job turnover

Global division of functions– Research activity

– Basic production

– High value-added

Europe in global science – the ERA

SOCIAL CONSIDERATIONS

Inclusive growth: a distinctive EU approach

– Partly about the employment rate

– But also wider sense of social inclusion

Sometimes equated with cohesion policy

– May, though, be too narrow a conceptual basis

Imperative of maintaining employmentNotably to avoid erosion of human capital

Too few references to social partnersMainly in connection with two flagship initiatives

LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY

Education – boosting human capital

Infrastructure investment

– To bolster industrial productivity

– But could also cover energy productivity

The productive role of social protection

– Labour transitions: preserving human capital

Viable pensions systems

Strategic answer:

– Target quality of growth, not just its rate

EUROPE 2020 SCENARIOS

2011 2020

Emphasis on job

preservation

Immediate focus on new sectors:

green economy; ageing related

Search for new

economy growth

Continued stress

on innovation

BUSINESS

AS USUAL

ENSURING

RECOVERY

DOUBLE

DIVIDEND

AWKWARD QUESTIONS

Europe 2020‟s integrated agenda

– Can it work?

– Has to reconcile exit from crisis & long-term

– The „smart, sustainable, inclusive‟ formula

Deals with past fragmentation

But risks embracing just too much

– Is it the „everything and nothing‟ syndrome?

Does it need incentives…and/or sanctions?

Are links to SGP well thought-out?

WATCHWORDS FOR NEXT YEARS

JOB PROTECTION >> CREATION

•Connections to macro performance

•Focus on training & transitions

•Social and spatial balance

KEYNESIAN >> TARGETED SPENDING

•Quality of public spending

•Incentives for welfare reform

•Doing more with less public money

DELIVERY AND COMPLIANCE

•Engaging national actors

•Curbing attractions of free-riding

•Raising visible costs of failure

•Optimising conditionality

CONCLUDING REMARKS

A genuine debate should take place

– For example on role of EU budget

Is serving „Europe 2020‟ the only option?

Select just some grand challenges, perhaps

– Expectations of key policies – notably cohesion

National engagement vital

– Lessons from Lisbon strategy must be learned

New realism about costs of non-complianceDoubts nevertheless persist about delivery

If we want things to stay as they

are, things will have to change

[tutto deve cambiare perché

tutto resti uguale]

Giuseppe de Lampedusa,

“il Gattopardo”