EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST FEBRUARY 2016

Edition Number : 15/12/17-52

Edition Validity Date : 11/03/2016

EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST FEBRUARY 2016

Flight Movements and Service Units 2016-2022

Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016 Edition: 15/12/17-52 Status: Released Issue i

INTENTIONALLY BLANK PAGE

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This is the final report of the EUROCONTROL 7-year flight and service units forecast, February 2016 release. This document has been prepared as the final step in the revised, more inclusive forecast process that was agreed in 2013. All Stakeholders’ comments and our responses to them are made available on the STATFOR OneSky Team.

Any user of this seven-year forecast should consult the entire forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (e.g. the economic indicators could worsen) and upside risks (e.g. high load factors could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-than-expected).

Forecast

IFR movements

To prepare this 7-year flight forecast, the most up-to-date input forecasts of economic growth, population, low-cost market share growth, load factors, future events, future high-speed rail network as well as future airport capacities have been taken into account.

Since the previous forecast published in September 2015, the economic outlook remained fairly stable (circa 2% economic growth at European level for the next seven years). The various airspace blockages (e.g. Eastern Ukraine, Syria, Libya), which have significantly changed the traffic patterns in South-Eastern Europe, are still in place, but have dwindling effect as the main changes are more than 12 months ago. However, Ukraine recorded further decreases in overflights from November 2015 following a mutual ban on flights between Russia and Ukraine. Russian economy is expected to contract this year. We note some changes in Russian tourism destinations, which are likely to have a small impact on European totals as they are expected to be shifted to Iberian destinations but will still have an impact on specific States (e.g. Turkey) and on overflight patterns. Similarly, a likely shift in tourism overall towards Greece and Iberia is neutral in terms of total flight counts, but as in 2015, is likely to drive strong growth rates there.

It is to be noted that the falling oil prices have not (yet) been translated into a reduction in ticket prices, thus not specifically boosting the passenger demand.

At European level (ECAC area), the traffic forecast for 2016 is in line with the September 2015 forecast with a growth of 2.4% (±1.4pp). For 2017, a growth of 2.1% is foreseen (±1.3pp). Removing the effect of the leap year (±0.3pp); this in fact means that we expect a growth of 2.1% for 2016 and 2.4% for 2017.

Dealing with the busiest European States; the forecasts of 2016 for UK and Spain have been revised upwards (compared to the previous forecast) to 2.7% and 6.7%. Germany is stable with 2.7%. On the other hand, the 2016 forecasts

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for France and Italy have slightly been revised downwards to rates around 2.2% and 1.8%.

From 2018 onwards, European flight growth is expected to remain stable at around 2.2% per year over the 2018-2022 period. The 2008 peak of 10.2 million flights is forecasted to be reached again by 2017; a 9-year hiatus.

The forecast is for 11.5 million IFR flight movements (±1.2 million) in Europe in 2022, 16% more than in 2015.

Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ECAC1).

ECAC 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 AAGR

2022/2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)

H . . . . 10,293 10,639 11,092 11,503 11,997 12,417 12,868 3.8% 3.3%

B 9,710 9,603 9,770 9,917 10,153 10,364 10,578 10,818 11,091 11,301 11,535 2.2% 2.1%

L . . . . 10,023 10,107 10,140 10,231 10,335 10,373 10,440 0.7% 0.9%

Annual Growth

(compared to previous year

unless otherwise mentioned)

H . . . . 3.8% 3.4% 4.3% 3.7% 4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3%

B -2.2% -1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%

L . . . . 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9%

Total En-Route Service Units

Following a slowdown of the growth rates in Central Europe from August 2015, now that the routing patterns avoiding various airspaces (e.g., Eastern Ukraine) have been in place for over 12 months, a lower growth in the service units is expected in 2016 compared to the September 2015 forecast.

For 2016, the total en-route service units in the participating EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO14) are expected to grow by 3.1% (±1.4pp) compared to 2015 and reach 141.9 million. This is a downwards revision by 0.7 pp compared to the 3.8% growth forecast in September 2015. 2017 is expected to see a growth of 2.8% compared to 2016, 0.2 pp lower than what was forecast in September 2015 and will reach 146 million en-route total service units.

Considering that 2016 is a leap year, these growth figures can be rather expressed in terms of average daily growth, which correspond respectively to a growth of 2.8% for 2016 and to a growth of 3.1% for 2017.

In 2021, the service units will end 1.7 million lower than expected in the September 2015 forecast, reaching in total 163.4 million in 2021, and then will reach 167.6 million in 2022, which represents an average annual growth rate of 2.9% compared to 2015.

1 ECAC is the European Civil Aviation Conference. See Annex 1 for a definition.

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Figure 2. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.

Total en-route service units (Thousands)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2022/ 2014 Total

Growth

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

CRCO14*

H . . . . 143,850 149,529 157,405 164,524 172,643 179,748 187,436 36% . 4.5%

B 122,298 124,910 132,130 137,689 141,945 145,972 150,229 154,606 159,406 163,372 167,633 22% 2.2% 3.2%

L . . . . 140,069 142,465 143,840 145,952 148,170 149,492 151,194 10% . 2.0%

RP2Region†

H . . . . 120,307 124,587 130,750 136,089 142,252 147,468 153,080 33% . 4.0%

B 105,251 106,930 111,670 115,063 118,792 121,710 124,870 128,055 131,610 134,414 137,421 19% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 117,295 118,886 119,630 121,018 122,500 123,203 124,221 8% . 1.6%

Total en-route

service units (Growth)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 AAGR

2022/ 2014

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

CRCO14*

H . . . . 4.5% 3.9% 5.3% 4.5% 4.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% . 4.5%

B -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 3.2%

L . . . . 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% . 2.0%

RP2Region†

H . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 4.9% 4.1% 4.5% 3.7% 3.8% 4.2% . 4.0%

B -1.4% 1.6% 4.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 1.9% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% . 1.6%

* CRCO14 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2014 of allTSU either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year. † RP2 series includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic (OAT) for Germany.

Terminal Navigation Service Units

In 2016, the terminal navigation service units are expected to grow by 3.1% compared to 2015 to reach 7.7 million in the States concerned by the second reference period (RP2 Region), which represents a growth of 2.8% in daily terms as 2016 is a leap year. In 2017, an annual growth rate of 2.8% (i.e. 3.1% growth in daily terms because of the leap year effect) is expected.

The expected average annual growth rate (AAGR) for the RP2 region during the second reference period (2019 compared to 2014) is expected to stand at 3% and after the end of the reference period, in 2022, 9.1 million terminal navigation service units are expected for the whole region, which represents a total growth of 22.2% compared to 2015.

Figure 3. Summary of forecast for the terminal navigation service units in the RP2 Region area

RP2 Region

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

AAGR RP1

2014/ 2011

AAGR RP2

2019/ 2014

TNSU Total

(thousands)

H . . . . . 7,819.3 8,130.1 8,548.1 8,945.4 9,380.7 9,764.3 10,173.6 4.5% . 4.2%

B 7,376.4 7,234.3 7,223.5 7,266.7 7,484.2 7,714.4 7,927.6 8,152.7 8,403.3 8,674.4 8,891.0 9,144.1 2.9% -0.5% 3.0%

L . . . . . 7,613.0 7,731.5 7,798.0 7,948.1 8,083.8 8,174.8 8,290.8 1.5% . 1.8%

TNSU Annual Growth

(%)

H . . . . . 4.5% 4.0% 5.1% 4.6% 4.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.5% . 4.2%

B 8.6% -1.9% -0.1% 0.6% 3.0% 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% -0.5% 3.0%

L . . . . . 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% . 1.8%

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DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS

Document Title Document Subtitle

(optional) Edition Number Edition Validity Date



15/12/17-52 11/03/2016

Abstract

This is the final report of the EUROCONTROL 7-year flight and service units forecast, February 2016 release.

Author(s)

STATFOR Team

Contact Person(s) Tel/email Unit

STATFOR Team [email protected] NMD/PFR/FNI/STATFOR

Publications [email protected] DG/COM

STATUS AND ACCESSIBILITY

Status Accessible via

Working Draft Intranet

Draft Extranet

Proposed Issue Internet (www.eurocontrol.int)

Released Issue

TLP STATUS

Intended for Detail

Red Highly sensitive, non-disclosable information

Amber Sensitive information with limited disclosure

Green Normal business information

White Public information

©2016 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and the extent justified by the non-commercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL.

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Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016 Edition: 15/12/17-52 Status: Released Issue vi

DOCUMENT APPROVAL

EDITION HISTORY

Edition No. Edition

Validity Date Author Reason

V0.1 31/12/2015 STATFOR Team 1st DRAFT Version

V0.2 25/01/2016 STATFOR Team 2nd DRAFT Version

V1.0 10/03/2016 STATFOR Team

All Sections and Annexes amended after the second review process cycle: updated input data and forecast results after comments and latest trends.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. II

DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................................. V

DOCUMENT APPROVAL ................................................................................................ VI

EDITION HISTORY .......................................................................................................... VI

TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................. VII

1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 12

1.1 CONTEXT ................................................................................................................... 12

1.2 FORECAST METHOD .................................................................................................... 12

2 FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2015 ........................................ 15

2.1 IFR MOVEMENTS ........................................................................................................ 15

2.2 EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS .......................................................................................... 21

2.3 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS ........................................................................ 22

3 FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS .................................................. 24

3.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH ................................................................................................... 24

3.2 EVENTS AND TRENDS .................................................................................................. 29

3.3 LOW-COST EFFECTS ................................................................................................... 33

3.4 LOAD FACTORS ........................................................................................................... 34

3.5 DEMOGRAPHICS ......................................................................................................... 34

3.6 AIRPORTS .................................................................................................................. 36

3.7 HIGH-SPEED TRAIN NETWORK ..................................................................................... 37

3.8 EMISSION TRADING SCHEMES ..................................................................................... 39

3.9 AIRLINE SCHEDULES.................................................................................................... 40

4 GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2022 ............................................................. 41

4.1 SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (2016-2017) ........................................................................... 41

4.2 MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK (UP TO 2022)......................................................................... 44

4.3 COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ..................................................................... 46

4.4 HIGH-SPEED TRAIN EFFECT ......................................................................................... 46

4.5 AIRPORT CAPACITY IMPACT ......................................................................................... 47

5 SERVICE UNIT GROWTH TO 2022 .............................................................. 49

5.1 EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS (TSU) ................................................................................ 49

5.2 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS (TNSU) ........................................................... 51

6 RISKS TO THE FORECAST GROWTH ........................................................ 53

7 GLOSSARY ................................................................................................... 55

ANNEX 1 TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS ................................................................. 57

ANNEX 2 SUMMARY OF FORECAST FOR ECAC ....................................................... 64

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ANNEX 3 SEVEN-YEAR FLIGHT FORECAST PER STATE (IFR MOVEMENTS) ....... 67

ANNEX 4 SEVEN-YEAR FLIGHT FORECAST PER STATE (GROWTH) ..................... 73

ANNEX 5 TWO-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNIT FORECAST PER STATE ............. 79

ANNEX 6 SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ...... 81

ANNEX 7 SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE (GROWTH)...................................................................................................................... 87

ANNEX 8 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ....... 93

ANNEX 9 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS GROWTH FORECAST PER STATE 97

ANNEX 10 REFERENCES ....................................................................................... 101

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LIST OF FIGURES IN MAIN DOCUMENT

Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ECAC). ................................................ iii

Figure 2. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe. ..................................... iv

Figure 3. Summary of forecast for the terminal navigation service units in the RP2 Region area ........................................................................................................... iv

Figure 4. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast................................... 14

Figure 5. 2015 has seen 1.5% more flights then 2014, matching the February 2015 forecast. .............................................................................................................. 16

Figure 6. In 2015, most States have been adding traffic to the Network (vs. 2014). ............................................................................................................................ 16

Figure 7. Several events affected overflight traffic in the summer 2015. ....................... 17

Figure 8: In 2015, the United States overtook Russia as the non-European destination adding the most flights. .......................................................................... 18

Figure 9. 2015 European load factors remained comparable to 2014 record highs, even improving in over July-October period (Source: AEA). ....................... 19

Figure 10. Low-Cost is the only segment which has grown consistently at a modest rate of above 5%. ........................................................................................... 20

Figure 11. In 2015; low-cost grew their market share at the expense of traditional scheduled and charter segments............................................................. 20

Figure 12. In 2015, oil prices averaged below €50 per barrel. ......................................... 20

Figure 13. In 2015, the trend in ticket price changes (air travel) in Europe increased to nearly 2% more than the year before, on a 12-month trailing average. Note that, on this graph, ticket prices are deflated by overall consumer prices ......................................................................................................... 21

Figure 14. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO14 area from January 2011 to December 2015. ............................................................................... 21

Figure 15: Terminal Navigation Service Units generated yearly since 2010 in the countries involved in SES RP2 and their growth. ..................................................... 23

Figure 16: EU GDP growth remains around 2% across the horizon of the forecast, with 2017 revised slightly upwards since the OE August 2015 revision used in MTF15b. ........................................................................................... 25

Figure 17: GDP Growth by Traffic Zone ............................................................................ 25

Figure 18: GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone ........................................................ 26

Figure 19: GDP Growth change per year between this forecast (MTF16) and the previous one (MTF15b) ............................................................................................... 27

Figure 20: GDP Growth cumulative change per State by 2021 between this forecast (MTF16) and the previous on (MTF15b) ...................................................... 28

Figure 21: GDP Growth by Traffic Region ........................................................................ 28

Figure 22: GDP Multipliers per Traffic Region Pair .......................................................... 28

Figure 23: GDP Multipliers per Traffic Zone / Traffic Region Pair ................................... 29

Figure 24: Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone .......................................... 31

Figure 25: Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone .................................................................... 33

Figure 26: Load factors by Traffic Region ........................................................................ 34

Figure 27: Population distribution per Traffic Zone ......................................................... 35

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Figure 28: Population distribution per Traffic Region. .................................................... 36

Figure 29: Propensity to fly per age group. ...................................................................... 36

Figure 30. Airport traffic switch. ........................................................................................ 37

Figure 31. High-Speed Train Times that change during the forecast. ............................ 38

Figure 32. Summary of the forecast for Europe. .............................................................. 41

Figure 33. Flight forecast details for 2016. ....................................................................... 43

Figure 34. Flight forecast details for 2017. ....................................................................... 43

Figure 35. Average Annual Growth per State, 2022 vs 2015. .......................................... 44

Figure 36. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2022 vs 2015). ............................................................................................................................ 45

Figure 37. Average Annual Growth per FAB, 2022 vs 2015. ............................................ 45

Figure 38. For total Europe, current forecast is slightly lower than previous forecast (dated September 2015), with narrower short-term uncertainty. .............. 46

Figure 39. Impact of High-Speed Train. (Reduction in flights when High-Speed train network development is taken into account. Note that the HST impact is assessed on forecasts excluding capacity constraints). ..................................... 47

Figure 40. Impact of airport constraints. (Reduction in IFR flights when airport constraints are taken into account.) .......................................................................... 48

Figure 41. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe. .................................. 50

Figure 42. Average annual growth of service units between 2015 and 2022. ................ 50

Figure 43. Comparison 2015-2021 between the current TSU forecast and September 2015 for CRCO14 Area ............................................................................. 51

Figure 44. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2 Region area .............................................................................................................................. 52

Figure 45. TNSU 7-year forecast February 2016 overview – Average annual growth and estimated additional daily TNSU generated between 2022 and 2015 per TCZ. .............................................................................................................. 52

Figure 46. Map of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) Area. ..................... 57

Figure 47. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ........................................... 58

Figure 48. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. .................................. 58

Figure 49. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics. ........................................ 59

Figure 50. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission. ........................................ 60

Figure 51. States within SES-RP2 Region in this report (Performance Scheme Region for the Second Review Period). ..................................................................... 61

Figure 52. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP2. .................................................. 63

Figure 53. Growth in Europe (ECAC) ................................................................................ 64

Figure 54. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ECAC) .................... 65

Figure 55. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ECAC ................................ 66

Figure 56. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State. .............. 67

Figure 57. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State. ......................................... 73

Figure 58. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2016-2017. ............ 79

Figure 59. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2016-2017. ............................................................................................................................. 80

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Figure 60. Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands) per State....................................................................................................................... 81

Figure 61. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State. ...................... 87

Figure 62. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands) per Terminal Charging Zone. ...................................................................................... 93

Figure 63. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per Terminal Charging Zone. ............................................................................................ 97

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Edition Validity Date: 11/03/2016 Edition: 15/12/17-52 Released Issue 12

1 Introduction

1.1 Context

This is the final report on the 7-year forecast, February 2016 edition. This document has been prepared as part of the revised, more-inclusive forecast process that was agreed at the 40th session of the Provisional Council in 2013.

The quality of the input data and assumptions for the forecast are of key importance to producing the best-possible forecast. Therefore the new process put in place at the end of 2013 aims to encourage comments on the forecast assumptions from a wide group of Stakeholders.

This final forecast is the last step of the four-month preparation process of the February 2016 forecast. This forecast is a refinement of the first and second draft. It includes a review of the forecast inputs and traffic trends up until January 2016.

This 7-year IFR movements and Service Units forecast replaces the September 2015 report (Ref. 1).

1.2 Forecast Method

For the new forecast process, we have produced a completely revised set of documentation on the forecast methods (Ref. 2). This documentation describes the methods at a number of levels of detail, from a two-page summary, to a function-by-function reference. For convenience of readers, the summary is reproduced in this section.

EUROCONTROL/STATFOR provides impartial air traffic forecasts, market analyses and statistics to the ATM community in the widest sense, to improve understanding of current and future trends, to enable better-informed decision making and thus to improve network performance. The STATFOR forecast has been serving European ATM since the 1970s. It is the only air traffic forecast covering Europe.

STATFOR publishes a forecast of IFR flights and both en-route and terminal service units for the next seven years in Europe. The main forecast update is published in February each year. Our focus is on the traffic forecast for States or larger regions. This influences the modelling choices made in the forecasting process. Other EUROCONTROL units use this high level forecast to drill down to the level of airports, control centres, sectors etc.

The number of flights depends on the interaction of supply and demand: an airline operates a flight between an airport A and an airport B because it has customers who pay to travel or ship goods from A to B. Supply and demand are each influenced by a large number of factors like economy, regulation, demographics, business development, oil prices, high-speed rail. When forecasting, we use data that describe these factors, and data more directly about actual and future supply (past flights, and future schedules). Some data are more relevant to the short-term horizon (e.g., airline schedules) while

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others are used in the medium-term horizon (e.g., demographics). Probably the three most influential inputs to the forecast are:

Economic growth forecasts obtained from external specialists, and which in recent years have been very variable; growth has slowed, but there is nothing in our data to show that flight growth has decoupled from economic growth;

Regulation, e.g., rules on visas, open skies, airport funding, aviation taxes;

Overflight patterns since, for the majority of States, most of their flights are overflights. A crisis such as that in Ukraine can easily change the number of flights by 10% or more in a number of States due to re-routing, even if the number of flights on the network as a whole is little changed.

Overall, the components of the forecast can be grouped into five elements as in Figure 4.

An initial annual forecast for the next seven years based on economic, transport and other trends;

A monthly forecast based on trends, economics and airlines’ plans;

These are merged, and constrained by airport capacities to give the constrained forecast;

The final step of the flight forecast is to calculate how many flights are generated in each State, using both routings through airspace observed in the historical data and recent trends.

The number of service units in a charging zone depends on the number of flights, the weight of aircraft and, in the en route case, the distance flown. The two service unit forecasts therefore take the flight forecast as an input and combine this with time series forecasts of weight and distance as needed. This gives total service units, from which future chargeable service units are estimated using the ratio of chargeable/total from the previous calendar year.

We use a highly-automated and structured process to produce traffic forecasts and because of the variety of factors and inputs, different forecasting techniques are used: traditional time series methods to extrapolate historical patterns, econometric analyses to take into account how economic, social and operational conditions have an effect on the development of traffic, scenario-based inputs to describe the future (what Europe will be in 10 years’ time?) and specific data-driven models (e.g., high-speed rail development model). As for any forecast, the method relies on historical data either for taking a snapshot of the most recent trends or longer history to calibrate the models.

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Figure 4. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast.

The future is always uncertain. We capture this uncertainty in the forecast through three forecast scenarios: low- and high-growth scenarios, with the most-likely ‘base’ forecast in between. All three scenarios should be considered as part of the risk management of any decision based on the forecast.

As requested by Stakeholders, we have re-calibrated:

since the February 2014 forecast, the key relationships with economic growth, including introducing more specific country-pair flow relationships where these make statistical sense. This re-calibration process is described in Ref. 2.

since the February 2015 forecast, the key relationships with high-speed train growth. This re-calibration process is described in Ref 3.

With this forecast we have switched to reporting based on the whole of the ECAC region in place of the smaller “ESRA08”. So ‘Europe’ in this report refers to the total of all ECAC member States. For more details, see Annex 1.

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2 Flight and service units trends in 2015

Europe had 1.5% more flights in 2015 than 2014. There was sustained growth of almost 2% throughout the summer driven mainly by the low-cost sector, which grew at a rate of 5%. The traditional scheduled sector, which makes up the majority of European airline traffic, just achieved a positive growth rate for the year. This growth matched the forecast published for Europe in February 2015.

Inside Europe several events caused airlines to change their routes, impacting overflight growth in several States. Some of these events were carried over from last year – such as (lengthy) airspace closures in Ukraine and Libya – while others were more recent developments, such as unit rates increase in Germany. Outside Europe, the USA overtook Russia as the busiest non-European destination, as Russian traffic contracted.

2.1 IFR Movements

The overall positive traffic growth trend of 1.7% in 2014 helped the European carriers to start 2015 more smoothly. In 2015, major European carriers managed to reduce their losses and even publish a collective increase in operating profits compared to 2014 (see Ref. 4). The final figure for the year is not available at the time of writing. However, nearly all major carriers showed robust passenger growth in 2015 and they benefited from lower fuel prices, even if this was limited by the strength of the US dollar.

The overall European traffic growth was limited at the start of the year compared to other months: economic recession in Nordic States, continuation of the crisis in Ukraine and industrial action. This resulted in limited traffic growth in the first months of the year.

After summer schedules began, sustained growth was observed: July, August and September 2015 were, with more than 30,700 flights per day on average, the busiest on record.

With the start of the winter schedules traffic growth reverted back to lower rates, between 1% and 2%, in line with the forecast published in September 2015. December traffic hit a 2015 record of 3.5% owing to sustained rates during the year-end holiday period and an artificial rebound caused by industrial action in December 2014 (Figure 5).

2015 IFR flight traffic matched the forecast published in February 2015 (as shown in Figure 5).

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Figure 5. 2015 has seen 1.5% more flights then 2014, matching the February 2015 forecast.

Network contributors 2.1.1

Figure 6 shows the main contributors to the local2 traffic growth for 2015. Turkey remained the main contributor to traffic growth, adding some 170 daily flights, followed by the United Kingdom (+140 flights per day). In terms of percentage increases Spain (+4%) and Greece (+5%) also witnessed traffic rises. Germany added 80 flights per day (excluding overflights).

Norway, hit by the oil crisis, removed most flights from the network since the beginning of the year, due to the weakness in its internal traffic and other arrival/departure major flows, amounting to a loss of around 70 daily flights from the European network. Ukraine also removed 50 flights a day, mainly due to the continuation of the crisis which began in 2014.

Figure 6. In 2015, most States have been adding traffic to the Network (vs. 2014).

2 Local traffic refers to all IFR movements excluding overflights.

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Routing aspects 2.1.2

During the first half of 2015 Ukraine’s overflight flows decreased by 64% over the same period last year following the unavailability of airspace in the State which started in early 2014. As a result, other States (for example, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey) continued to see increases in overflights as the flows between Europe and the Middle East/Far East Asia were re-routed in a more southerly direction. The changes in traffic patterns are still in place but have dwindling effect as they happened more than 12 months ago. Ukraine recorded further decreases in overflights from November 2015 following a mutual ban on flights between Russia and Ukraine.

The closure of Libyan airspace in 2014 continued to have a strong impact on Greece as the flows between Europe and Africa, which had previously crossed Maltese airspace, shifted eastwards into Greece. From August 2105 onwards some procedural changes aiming at re-balancing the flows between Malta and Greece, especially on west-east flows, took effect. Between July and September 2015, Cyprus recorded strong increases in overflight growth, which is mainly explained by some traffic increase in flows from/to Israel (up to 25% in some cases).

In 2015, growth in overflight movements was relatively weak in Germany (below 2%) compared to some of its neighbours; the Netherlands recorded an increase in overflights of almost 5%. Germany recorded no change in the overflight (total) distance flown in 2015 compared with 2014 while its neighbours to the west recorded positive changes in 2015. The unit rate increase in Germany is part of the reason behind this. Many flights avoided Germany or, if this was not possible, minimised their distance flown over the State.

Figure 7. Several events affected overflight traffic in the summer3 2015.

3 Summer is referring to May-August 2015 period in this part.

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Extra-European partners 2.1.3

Since the beginning of the year, the USA has returned to being the number one destination from Europe in terms of number of flights: around 430 departures per day on average, now larger than the Russian Federation (360 departures per day on average for the period January to December 2015) as shown in Figure 8.

This is a return to the situation before 2011 when the USA was the first destination from Europe, ahead of the Russian Federation. A 19% drop in flights from/to Russia (caused by the financial crisis in Russia from April 2014) was recorded on average in 2015, also leading to a reduction in European overflights (notably on flows between Egypt and Russia). United Arab Emirates and Morocco were respectively the third and fourth extra-European partners.

Figure 8: In 2015, the United States overtook Russia as the non-European destination adding the most flights.

Traffic flows from Europe to Tunisia recorded a substantial decline in 2015 (a 22% drop on average compared with 2014) following the terrorist attacks in March and July. It is now ranked eighth (hence not shown in Figure 8).

Airline industry 2.1.4

In 2015, the load factors of European carriers remained in line with the 2014 (record-breaking) ones on Europe cross-border flows (see Figure 9), with a noticeable improvement over the period July to October 2015. The drop around week 48 is a consequence of the November terrorist attacks in Paris. If passenger growth was hit at the end of the year in France, there was no noticeable drop in flight growth after mid-November for the State.

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Figure 9. 2015 European load factors remained comparable to 2014 record highs, even improving in over July-October period (Source: AEA).

Figure 10 shows the traffic development per market segment. Over the January to December 2015 period, the low-cost segment maintained its dominant growth position, with a rate of 5.2% and was followed by the traditional scheduled segment, which grew steadily by 1% in 2015 (vs. 2014).

Part of the low-cost segment’s growth is related to the fact that some traditional carriers, as part of restructuring, have handed their short-haul journeys to low-cost carriers (see Figure 11). On the growth side, the all-cargo segment posted just below 1% growth, for the second year in a row.

Business aviation recorded a decrease of 2.6%. Charter (non-scheduled) was the weakest market segment, with a fall of nearly 9% compared with the period a year ago. This was mainly due to a decline in traffic to/from Russia and Tunisia. In addition, the charter segment decrease was also attributed to a number of aircraft operators moving to a more scheduled operation in 2015, compared with last year. The reverse is however true with some scheduled carriers filing their operations as non-scheduled (October).

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Figure 10. Low-Cost is the only segment which has grown consistently at a modest rate of above 5%.

Figure 11. In 2015; low-cost grew their market share at the expense of traditional scheduled and charter segments

As Figure 12 shows, oil prices fell below €40 per barrel in December; levels not seen since the end of 2008 after the start of the economic crisis. The declines have continued into January. Overall, prices averaged out just below €50 since the beginning of the year. Fuel prices have consequently been low, with an average of €465 per tonne in 2015.

Figure 12. In 2015, oil prices averaged below €50 per barrel.

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In spite of falling fuel costs, airline ticket price growth in Europe seems to have accelerated since the beginning of 2015 (Figure 13). Ticket price inflation has stood at an average level of 1.2% in 2015. The trough in April 2015 was driven by Easter.

Figure 13. In 2015, the trend in ticket price changes (air travel) in Europe increased to nearly 2% more than the year before, on a 12-month trailing average. Note that, on this graph, ticket prices are deflated by overall consumer prices

2.2 En-route Service Units

In 2015, the total service units (TSU) for the CRCO14 region increased by 4.2% from 123.7 million in the year-ago period to 137.7 million. Such an increase of 4.2% lies between the base scenario (+3.8%) and the high scenario (+4.8%) of the forecast published in February 2015.

Figure 14. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO14 area from January 2011 to December 2015.

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Most of the growth happened in the first half of 2015 with growth rates close to 7% and over during the first three months of the year. Then, they slowed down from 5.1% in April to 3.6% in July 2015. After July, growth has not been any greater than the 3.1% observed in September and stood slightly over 2%, except in December 2015 (+4.5% on December 2014).

The reduction in the growth from July can be explained by the one-year anniversary of the closure of the Eastern Ukraine airspace that caused major changes in the South-East axis flows and major growth in a few countries for 2015 such as Bulgaria (17.5%) and Hungary (12%). From August, growth rates were then back to more traditional values as those that were observed before this airspace closure. Such TSU growth figures were often greater than growth of overflights as changes in flows concerned flights from Western-Europe towards South-East Asia or the Middle-East, which are operated by heavier aircraft than the traditional fleet seen there. This heavier traffic generated additional service units even if sometimes, the average distances flown by it were reduced. For example, in Bulgaria for the one-year period starting in August 2014 (i.e. August 2014 to July 2015 included), the average weight coefficient of overflights grew by 9.4% whereas the average distance accounted for the TSU calculation of these same overflights declined by 1.4%; this generated TSU growth of 32.6% while overflights were growing by 24.5% “only”.

As for the German unit rate increase, if flight numbers were only slightly affected, it may have been one of the causes (amidst of flow changes) of a decline by around 2% of the average distances flown by its overflights, this decline being stronger during the summer schedule with a decline of around 2.5% on Summer 2014 (see Section 2.1.2).

2.3 Terminal Navigation Service Units

In 2015, the Terminal Navigation Service Units (TNSU) in the countries that are part of the second reporting period of the Performance Scheme (SES RP2 area) grew by 3% to reach 7.5 million TNSU, which is at the upper end of the range of both the February and September TNSU forecasts published in 2015.

This appears to be the first significant growth rate after three years of almost no growth or decline in TNSU thanks to strong growth of Intra-European flights and to an on-going trend of increasing weight of aircraft. Note however that the growth figures are biased due to changes in the airports included in the Terminal Charging Zones (TCZ) of the countries across the years and, especially in 2014 with the beginning of the second reporting period (RP2). In 2014 for example, a significant reduction of the number of airports in Italian TCZ for RP2 has artificially lowered the growth this year compared to 2013.

The way the history for RP1 was reconstructed is detailed in the September 2014 forecast report (see Ref. 5) and the list of airports that were considered for 2014 and 2015 are defined in Annex 1 (of the respective September reports). In 2015, four airports were taken out of the Bulgarian TCZ and two airports were added but the size of these airports should make this change negligible at SES RP2 area when compared to 2014.

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The full actual TNSU figures are provided in Figure 15.

Figure 15: Terminal Navigation Service Units generated yearly since 2010 in the countries involved in SES RP2 and their growth.

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3 Forecast inputs and assumptions

This section describes in detail the many forecast input assumptions, including those on economic growth. Section 4 describes how they influence the forecast.

The improved forecast process described in Section 1 enabled the use of the most up-to-date forecast inputs and assumptions reflecting the main drivers and influential factors over the next 7 years: economic growth (Section 3.1), events and trends (Section 3.2), low-cost traffic development (Section 3.3), load factors evolution (Section 3.4), demographics and propensity to fly (Section 3.5), airport capacity (Section 3.6), high-speed rail network development (Section 3.7) and airline schedules (Section 3.8).

As usual, there are three forecast scenarios, presented in this 7-year forecast:

High: based on assumptions of strong economic growth, stronger

growth of low‐cost market segment, stronger effect of events (e.g. EU

accession) and slower development of high‐speed rail; this stronger growth goes with weaker load factors4;

Low: based on assumptions of weak economic growth, weaker growth

in low‐cost market segment, weaker (and later) effect of events (e.g. EU

accession) and quicker development of high‐speed rail; this weaker growth means stronger load factors which are used to absorb the flight demand;

Base: the most‐likely of the 3 scenarios, representing an intermediate point between high and low.

The specific factors which are used in the scenarios are described below. The first three have the biggest effect on the forecast. Details of how they have this effect are in the methodology document (Ref. 2).

3.1 Economic growth

Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) are provided by Oxford Economics Ltd (OE) for most of the States. For some States, when recommended by Stakeholders, other GDP forecasts are used. In particular, an official government forecast (October 2015) has been used for Germany. All other States or region GDP forecast data in this report originate from the January 2016 update of the OE forecast.

The high‐ and low‐growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets5 from these forecasts.

4 See Section 3.4.

5 +1%, -1% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -1.5% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.5%

for late years and big States, +0.8%, -0.8% for late years and small States.

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Economic forecast for Europe 3.1.1

The healthy consumption that led to last year’s recovery remains largely in place and the EU28 economy is expected to record another healthy expansion in 2016. Bright consumer spending prospects on the back of low oil prices, low inflation and an improving labor market will support growth this year. Looking forward, the EU28 economy is expected to maintain that pace of growth in 2017. Risks, of course, remain and are described in section 6.

Figure 16 illustrates how little the economic outlook has changed for EU since the preparation of the September flight forecast (indicated as MTF15b). The economic outlook for EU has been slightly revised upwards in 2017 in the OE January release (indicated as MTF16).

Figure 16: EU GDP growth remains around 2% across the horizon of the forecast, with 2017 revised slightly upwards since the OE August 2015 revision used in MTF15b.

Details per State 3.1.2

The GDP forecasts are shown for specific states in Figure 17 and Figure 18. For all other states, the economic growth of the traffic region is used. Traffic regions are listed in Figure 48, and their economic growth in Figure 21.

Figure 17: GDP Growth by Traffic Zone Source: 2005-2022 from Oxford Economics Ltd (Jan 2016)

Comments: Real GDP Growth in Euro.

Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 18/01/2016

Actuals Base

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Albania 1.3% 2.2% 2.4% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

Armenia 3.5% 3.4% 2.2% 3.1% 2.7% 3.0% 3.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

Austria 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

Azerbaijan 5.8% 2.7% 3.3% 2.6% 3.5% 3.8% 4.5% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%

Belarus 1.2% 1.6% -3.2% -1.0% 2.1% 2.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%

Belgium/Luxembourg 0.0% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 2.5% 1.1% 2.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

Bulgaria 0.9% 1.7% 2.7% 2.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%

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Actuals Base

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Canary Islands -1.7% 1.4% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Croatia -0.8% -0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Cyprus -5.9% -2.5% 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

Czech Republic -0.5% 2.0% 4.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Denmark -0.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Estonia 1.6% 2.9% 1.6% 2.8% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%

FYROM 2.7% 3.8% 3.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%

Finland -1.1% -0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

France 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Georgia 3.3% 4.4% 2.2% 2.8% 4.4% 5.0% 5.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

Germany 0.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

Greece -3.1% 0.7% -0.3% -2.2% -0.1% 1.1% 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

Hungary 2.0% 3.6% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

Iceland 3.9% 1.8% 4.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Ireland 1.4% 5.2% 6.9% 4.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

Italy -1.8% -0.4% 0.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

Latvia 3.0% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 4.2% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%

Lisbon FIR -1.1% 0.9% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

Lithuania 3.5% 3.0% 1.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Malta 4.0% 4.1% 5.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

Moldova 9.4% 4.8% -1.0% 1.5% 3.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Morocco 4.7% 2.4% 4.5% 2.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%

Netherlands -0.4% 1.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

Norway 1.0% 2.2% 2.1% 0.8% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Poland 1.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%

Romania 3.1% 2.9% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%

Santa Maria FIR -1.1% 0.9% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

Serbia&Montenegro 2.6% -1.8% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%

Slovakia 1.4% 2.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Slovenia -1.0% 2.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

Spain -1.7% 1.4% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Sweden 1.2% 2.4% 3.3% 2.8% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Switzerland 1.8% 1.9% 0.7% 1.0% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Turkey 4.2% 2.9% 3.5% 3.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%

UK 2.2% 2.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Ukraine -0.0% -6.8% -11% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

EU28 0.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

Figure 18: GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan16.

Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.


Actual Base

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Brazil 2.7% 0.1% -3.1% -2.0% 0.9% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

China 7.7% 7.3% 6.9% 6.3% 5.8% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%

India 6.4% 7.1% 7.2% 7.4% 7.2% 7.0% 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Israel 3.4% 2.6% 2.7% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%

South Africa 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

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Most of the GDP forecasts per State remain little changed by 20216. Figure 19 shows the order of magnitude of the forecast revision by year.

Figure 19: GDP Growth change per year between this forecast (MTF16) and the previous one (MTF15b)

Most of the significant revisions take place in the first years (2016 to 2017) of the horizon. More specifically in 2016, Belarus and Moldova have seen their GDP forecast revised downwards in light of Russia’s weaker-than-expected economic recovery. To a lesser extent, Germany, France and UK are also expected to grow more slowly. While Armenia’s outlook is also dependent on economic growth in Russia, a stronger performance in agriculture than originally foreseen has explained the upward revision of their GDP in 2016. Greece and Malta were also lifted upwards (by +1.4 pp and 1.2 pp respectively) thanks to better performance.

Figure 20 shows the cumulated growth differences by order of increasing change over 7 years. By 2021, Greece, Malta, Ukraine and Ireland are expected to grow faster than previously expected7. On the other hand, Lithuania, Armenia and Finland have seen their economic outlook revised downwards.

6 2021 is the common year between this forecast (MTF16 covering 2016-2022) and the previous

forecast (MTF15b covering 2015-2021) 7 The German GDP forecast has also been increased since last forecast but this is due to the change in

the source: OEF in the September 2015 forecast and the official government forecast in this February 2016 forecast.

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Figure 20: GDP Growth cumulative change per State by 2021 between this forecast (MTF16) and the previous on (MTF15b)

Continued weakness in oil prices and prospects that they will recover slowly in 2016 are making the Russian economy more vulnerable. The traffic region ‘Other Europe’ in Figure 21 includes Russia which has been consequently revised downwards since the latest forecast. As of 2017, the Russian economy is expected to gradually recover.

Figure 21: GDP Growth by Traffic Region Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Jan16

Comments: Real GDP Growth.


Actual Base

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Asia/Pacific 2.4% 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

ESRA East 1.2% 2.7% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

ESRA Mediterranean -0.8% 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

ESRA North-West 0.9% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

Mid-Atlantic 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Middle-East 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%

North Atlantic 1.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

North-Africa -4.5% -5.3% 0.2% 2.4% 3.4% 4.2% 4.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4%

Other Europe 1.7% 1.0% -2.8% -0.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

South-Atlantic 3.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 2.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

Southern Africa 6.3% 6.2% 4.7% 5.3% 5.7% 5.8% 6.1% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%

GDP multipliers or “elasticities” convert economic growth into growth in passenger numbers. The multipliers per traffic region pairs (see Figure 22) and the multipliers per traffic zone / traffic region pairs (see Figure 23) are the same as those used in the September 2015 forecast (Ref. 1).

Figure 22: GDP Multipliers per Traffic Region Pair Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling

Comments: MTF16 Inputs. See Doc499 for discussion.

Units: Multiplier (Elasticity). Data last updated: 14/12/2015

Note: Elasticity reduced by 1.1 for all domestic flights within States in TRs: 60 61 62.

ESRA North-West

ESRA Mediterran

ean

ESRA East

Other Europe

Asia / Pacific

North Atlantic

Mid-Atlantic

South-Atlantic

ESRA North-West 1.7 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.3 1.1 2.7

ESRA Mediterranean 2.2 3.1 3.4 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.4 3.3

ESRA East 3.0 3.4 2.9 2.7 3.5 . . .

Other Europe 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.4 2.8 . . .

Asia/Pacific 2.0 2.5 3.5 2.8 . . . .

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ESRA North-West

ESRA Mediterran

ean

ESRA East

Other Europe

Asia / Pacific

North Atlantic

Mid-Atlantic

South-Atlantic

North Atlantic 1.3 1.7 . . . . . .

Mid-Atlantic 1.1 1.4 . . . . . .

South-Atlantic 2.7 3.3 . . . . . .

North-Africa 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 . 0.9 . .

Southern Africa 1.5 3.0 . . . . . .

Middle-East 2.2 3.2 2.6 3.5 . . . .

Figure 23: GDP Multipliers per Traffic Zone / Traffic Region Pair Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling

Comments: GDP elasticity per TZ2 flow

Units: Multiplier (Elasticity). Data last updated: 21/01/2015

Belgium /Luxemb

ourg

Bulgaria France Germany Greece Lisbon FIR

Turkey Asia / Pacific

North Atlantic

Mid-Atlantic

Southern Africa

Middle-East

France . . . . . . . . 1.0 . 1.2 2.1

Germany . 1.7 2.2 0.3 . . . . . . . .

Greece . . . . 0.9 . . . . . . .

Hungary . . . 2.5 . . . . . . . .

Italy 1.6 . . . . . . . . . . .

Lisbon FIR

. . . . . 0.8 . . . . . .

Spain 1.1 . . . . . . . . 0.3 . .

Tunisia . . 1.1 . . . . . . . . .

Turkey . . . . . . 3.0 . . . . 3.4

UK . . . . 0.7 . . 1.6 . . . 2.1

3.2 Events and Trends

The ‘events and trends’ assumptions consist of adjustments to arrival, departure, internal, overflight traffic (IFR movements). The assumptions are listed in Figure 24, where they are expressed as 'cumulative' change: so a 1.01 figure in the year 2016 only would mean increase growth by 1% in 2016 and decrease it in 2017 (with a total cumulative effect of 0 over the full period of the forecast).

The forecast has taken into account the following events falling into the 7-year horizon:

Sport events: EURO 2016 and EURO 2020

Change in Russian travel patterns as well as recent event affecting Turkey

Adverse travel advice for North-African States (Tunisia and Egypt)

Potential changes in travel demand in response to recent events affecting positively South-Western European countries (Spain, Canary Islands and Portugal) as well as Greece and Bulgaria.

Impact of the increased fee imposed by the Italian Government and the new fee planned by the Norwegian Government on all departing flights (domestic and international flights).

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Sport events 3.2.1

EURO2016 (European football cup) to be held in France from 10 June to 10 July 2016 (9 sites) is likely to have a small impact on annual traffic in France. In accordance with estimates from the DGAC/France, STATFOR derived expected impact based on the EURO2008 and EURO2012 historical data. French Arrivals/Departures and Internal flows are expected to see 0.1% and 0.08% additional traffic respectively.

EURO2020 (European football cup) to be held in 13 different European countries (Azerbaijan, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Romania, Russia, Scotland, Spain, UK holding the final and semi-finals) during the middle of 2020 is likely to have a small impact on traffic in those countries. We derived expected impact based on the EURO2008 (co-organised by Austria and Switzerland) historical data. Since most of the extra flights are generated during the final and semi-finals, 80% of the total impact was attributed to the UK. The rest of the impact was split between the other countries. The adjusted factor is too small to be noticed in Figure 24 (it shows as 1.0).

Change in Russian travel patterns as well as recent event affecting 3.2.2Turkey

For Turkey, immediate prospects for tourism are likely to be affected by the recent events.

Currently there is no obvious indication as to how the soured relationship with Russia will be resolved. Knowing that Russians account for 13% of all foreign visitors to Turkey, it is likely that the Turkish tourism industry will be affected by the ban on charter flights between Russia and Turkey with advice to Russian tour operators not to sell any Turkey holidays to Russian citizens.

Quite apart from the Russian factor, the ongoing political challenges in the region, and concerns about security will continue to have a dampening effect on tourism. Much will depend on travel advice given by individual governments.

To account for this, an assumption has been developed to reduce the growth of the arrivals/departures until the end of the forecast by 1.5% compared to the (unadjusted) growth foreseen by the model.

Adverse travel advice for North-African States (Tunisia and Egypt) 3.2.3

The adverse travel advice both for Tunisia and Egypt following various terrorist attacks are affecting tourism. To account for this, an assumption has been made for Tunisia and Egypt to reduce the growth of the arrivals/departures until the end of the forecast by respectively 20% and 25% compared to the growth foreseen by the statistical model (similar to the reduction in Egypt after the events of 2010).

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Potential changes in travel demand in response to recent events 3.2.4

Tourism affected by the previous two events will be looking for alternatives. Information received from tour operators as well as aircraft operators have been used to create local adjustment for the Winter or Summer 2016 in Spain, Canary Islands, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria and Croatia. The assumptions vary by scenarios.

The net effects on the number of flights in Europe of these three previous set of events (Sections 3.2.2, 3.2.3 and 3.2.4) is roughly zero.

Italian and Norwegian fee 3.2.5

Italian authorities increased in January 2016 its Council Tax amounting to an extra €2.5 per passenger. Air travelers are now paying a €10 tax each time they depart from airports near Rome and €9 from other Italian airports.

The Norwegian government has decided to (re-)introduce a fee for all passengers on flights departing from Norwegian airports (domestic and international flights). The size of the fee is 80 NOK, approximately €8, plus 10% VAT on the fee per passenger. The fee is likely to start from 1st of April this year.

Considering an average ticket price of €180 and a price elasticity of -1, the estimated negative impacts on all departs and internal flights are as follows8:

Italy: - 1.4%

Norway: -5%

Figure 24 gives an overview of the annual events and trends assumption by Traffic Zone.

Figure 24: Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone9

Source: STATFOR analysis and modelling

Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0). Data last updated: 01/03/2016

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Austria Total: Arr/Dep H . 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998

B . 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998

L . 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998

Azerbaijan Total: Arr/Dep H . . . . 1.000 . .

B . . . . 1.000 . .

L . . . . 1.000 . .

Belgium/Luxembourg Total: Arr/Dep H . . . . 1.000 . .

B . . . . 1.000 . .

L . . . . 1.000 . .

Bulgaria Total: Arr/Dep H 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045

B 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030

L 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.015

Canary Islands Total: Arr/Dep H 1.018 1.018 1.018 1.018 1.018 1.018 1.018

B 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012

L 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006

Croatia Total: Arr/Dep H 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011

B 1.008 1.008 1.008 1.008 1.008 1.008 1.008

L 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

8 Same scenario for the Base and Low scenario. No impact foreseen for the High scenario.

9 Values 1.000 hide adjustments significant for one or two months, but not at an annual level.

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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Denmark Total: Arr/Dep H . . . . 1.000 . .

B . . . . 1.000 . .

L . . . . 1.000 . .

Egypt Total: Arr/Dep H 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875

B 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750

L 0.625 0.625 0.625 0.625 0.625 0.625 0.625

Estonia Total: Arr/Dep H 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033

B 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033

L 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033 1.033

France Total: Internal H 1.002 . . . . . .

B 1.001 . . . . . .

L 1.000 . . . . . .

Total: Arr/Dep H 1.002 . . . . . .

B 1.001 . . . . . .

L 1.001 . . . . . .

Germany Total: Arr/Dep H . . . . 1.000 . .

B . . . . 1.000 . .

L . . . . 1.000 . .

Greece Total: Internal H 1.057 1.057 1.057 1.057 1.057 1.057 1.057

B 1.038 1.038 1.038 1.038 1.038 1.038 1.038

L 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019

Total: Arr/Dep H 1.056 1.056 1.056 1.056 1.056 1.056 1.056

B 1.038 1.038 1.038 1.038 1.038 1.038 1.038

L 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019

Hungary Total: Arr/Dep H . . . . 1.000 . .

B . . . . 1.000 . .

L . . . . 1.000 . .

Ireland Total: Arr/Dep H . . . . 1.000 . .

B . . . . 1.000 . .

L . . . . 1.000 . .

Italy Total: Internal H 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

B 0.997 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986

L 0.997 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986

Total: Arr/Dep H 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

B 0.998 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993

L 0.998 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993

Lisbon FIR Total: Arr/Dep H 1.034 1.034 1.034 1.034 1.034 1.034 1.034

B 1.023 1.023 1.023 1.023 1.023 1.023 1.023

L 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011

Netherlands Total: Arr/Dep H 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029

B 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029

L 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029

Norway Total: Internal H 1.000 1.025 1.025 1.025 1.025 1.025 1.025

B 0.988 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

L 0.988 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

Total: Arr/Dep H 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

B 0.994 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

L 0.994 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

Romania Total: Arr/Dep H . . . . 1.000 . .

B . . . . 1.000 . .

L . . . . 1.000 . .

Spain Total: Internal H 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019 1.019

B 1.013 1.013 1.013 1.013 1.013 1.013 1.013

L 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006

Total: Arr/Dep H 1.044 1.044 1.044 1.044 1.044 1.044 1.044

B 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029

L 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.015

Tunisia Total: Arr/Dep H 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900

B 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800

L 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700

Turkey Total: Arr/Dep H 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993 0.993

B 0.985 0.985 0.985 0.985 0.985 0.985 0.985

L 0.978 0.978 0.978 0.978 0.978 0.978 0.978

UK Total: Arr/Dep H 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.987 0.986 0.986

B 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.987 0.986 0.986

L 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.986

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3.3 Low-Cost effects

The additional flight movements generated by low-cost carrier growth are represented by the input assumptions given in Figure 25. The figure shows the actual (based on 2015 data) and future low-cost market share for each scenario, and the additional growth of total traffic over the horizon that this low-cost growth will generate.

Figure 25: Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling

Comments: Represents additional growth for Low-Cost, but only the baseline year is a true statistic for low-cost market share (source: STATFOR).

Units: Percentage Additional Growth Due to Low-Cost Growth. Data last updated: 14/12/2015

Actual Low Base High

2015 2022 2022 2022

Albania 3% 3% 5% 8%

Armenia 3% 3% 6% 7%

Austria 22% 21% 26% 32%

Azerbaijan 0% 0% 2% 5%

Belarus 0% 0% 2% 5%

Belgium/Luxembourg 17% 16% 21% 27%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 23% 22% 27% 33%

Bulgaria 20% 19% 24% 30%

Canary Islands 48% 48% 51% 56%

Croatia 24% 23% 28% 34%

Cyprus 29% 28% 37% 47%

Czech Republic 29% 28% 37% 47%

Denmark 20% 19% 24% 30%

Estonia 18% 17% 26% 36%

FYROM 41% 38% 43% 48%

Finland 11% 10% 16% 21%

France 21% 20% 25% 31%

Georgia 15% 15% 18% 23%

Germany 32% 32% 33% 34%

Greece 27% 26% 31% 37%

Hungary 43% 42% 49% 57%

Iceland 14% 13% 18% 23%

Ireland 36% 35% 40% 45%

Italy 39% 37% 42% 47%

Latvia 72% 55% 65% 75%

Lisbon FIR 35% 34% 39% 44%

Lithuania 40% 39% 44% 49%

Malta 31% 30% 39% 49%

Moldova 6% 6% 8% 11%

Morocco 22% 20% 33% 48%

Netherlands 24% 23% 28% 34%

Norway 21% 20% 25% 31%

Poland 36% 35% 46% 59%

Romania 26% 25% 30% 35%

Santa Maria FIR 8% 7% 8% 9%

Serbia&Montenegro 10% 9% 15% 20%

Slovakia 30% 29% 37% 45%

Slovenia 4% 3% 12% 22%

Spain 50% 50% 52% 54%

Sweden 19% 19% 22% 26%

Switzerland 17% 16% 21% 27%

Turkey 29% 28% 33% 38%

UK 43% 42% 46% 49%

Ukraine 6% 5% 11% 17%

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3.4 Load factors

Assumptions about the development of load factors are based on STATFOR analysis of historical data from the Association of European Airlines (AEA). Forecasts are been made using the recent trends shown in the annual data. These are used as inputs to the forecast, and are shown in Figure 26.

The load factors forecast is based on the previous trend but it is combined with assumptions about maximum limits that can be maintained by the airlines in the medium-term. The baseline scenario load factors in 2022 are relatively high, between 75% and 90% depending on the flow and scenario. The forecast assumes that a maximum of around 85% is feasible for short-haul, and 90% for long-haul.

Figure 26: Load factors by Traffic Region Source: Actual: AEA (STAR15). Forecast: STATFOR analysis and modelling.

Comments: 2015 estimated on weighted avg (ASK), 2016- exponential smoothing projection.

Units: Percentage Load Factor for this Traffic Region. Data last updated: 13/01/2016

Actual Low Base High

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2022 2022 2022

Asia/Pacific 80.7% 83.2% 80.9% 80.4% 83.4% 79.9% 81.4% 81.8% 82.7% 83.0% 87.8% 85.2% 82.6%

ESRA East 68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 68.1% 70.1% 72.1% 73.7% 74.7% 76.0% 77.2% 85.0% 83.0% 80.8%

ESRA Mediterranean 68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 68.1% 70.1% 72.1% 73.7% 74.7% 76.0% 77.2% 85.0% 83.0% 80.8%

ESRA North-West 68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 68.1% 70.1% 72.1% 73.7% 74.7% 76.0% 77.2% 85.0% 83.0% 80.8%

Mid-Atlantic 82.1% 84.4% 83.4% 81.7% 82.7% 82.4% 83.9% 84.1% 85.1% 86.0% 90.0% 89.0% 87.1%

Middle-East 70.9% 73.8% 74.0% 69.5% 71.5% 70.1% 71.6% 73.1% 74.9% 75.4% 80.0% 77.9% 74.9%

North Atlantic 81.5% 82.2% 81.4% 82.7% 84.0% 83.1% 84.8% 85.6% 85.3% 85.0% 90.0% 88.6% 86.4%

North-Africa 68.5% 69.9% 70.9% 68.4% 70.7% 68.0% 72.4% 71.6% 71.4% 75.0% 79.8% 77.0% 74.2%

Other Europe 68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 68.1% 70.1% 72.1% 73.7% 74.7% 76.0% 77.2% 85.0% 83.0% 80.8%

South-Atlantic 86.3% 85.0% 81.1% 80.2% 85.0% 85.0% 84.7% 85.1% 84.2% 82.7% 90.0% 87.1% 83.6%

Southern Africa 78.0% 79.2% 79.1% 77.7% 77.3% 77.7% 78.6% 79.8% 80.1% 77.8% 82.0% 80.1% 78.1%

It could be argued that load factors for other market segments (e.g. regional or

low‐cost carriers) are different from those provided by the AEA. However, in the model, it is relative change from the start to the end of the forecast that is most important (see Ref. 2). We assume that the relative changes in load factors for traditional carriers will be similar for other segments.

3.5 Demographics

The demography model combines the evolution of population age structure with the age structure of the passengers. The population data are based on the 2015 United Nations (UN) population forecast update which is the last available. The input data are shown at traffic zone level in Figure 27 and at traffic region level in Figure 28.

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Figure 27: Population distribution per Traffic Zone Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision

Comments: Only the population age distributions, not numbers (in 000s) are used.

Units: Percentage of TZ population in this age range. Data last updated: 11/12/2015

Actual Base

2015 2025

Age 0 to 14

Age 15 to

19

Age 20 to

24

Age 25 to 34

Age 35 to 44

Age 45 to 54

Age 55 to

59

Age 60 to

64

Age 65 to

74 Age 75+

Age 0 to 14

Age 15 to

19

Age 20 to

24

Age 25 to

34

Age 35 to 44

Age 45 to 54

Age 55 to

59

Age 60 to

64

Age 65 to

74 Age 75+

Albania 19% 8.9% 9.4% 14% 11% 14% 6.6% 5.4% 7.4% 5.0% 19% 5.1% 6.2% 17% 13% 11% 6.0% 6.5% 10% 6.5%

Armenia 18% 5.9% 8.5% 18% 12% 13% 7.3% 5.5% 4.9% 6.0% 18% 6.1% 5.0% 14% 17% 12% 5.3% 7.1% 11% 4.9%

Austria 14% 5.4% 6.3% 13% 13% 16% 6.9% 5.4% 10% 8.7% 14% 4.6% 5.0% 12% 13% 13% 8.0% 7.6% 11% 11%

Azerbaijan 22% 7.2% 9.3% 19% 13% 14% 5.4% 4.4% 2.8% 2.9% 24% 5.8% 5.5% 15% 17% 12% 5.5% 6.4% 7.3% 2.1%

Belarus 16% 4.6% 6.7% 16% 14% 15% 7.7% 6.3% 7.0% 7.0% 18% 5.4% 4.8% 12% 16% 14% 6.1% 7.1% 11% 6.1%

Belgium/ Luxembourg 17% 5.5% 6.1% 13% 13% 15% 6.7% 5.9% 9.2% 8.8% 17% 5.7% 5.5% 12% 13% 13% 6.7% 6.6% 11% 9.9%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 13% 5.8% 6.0% 15% 14% 15% 7.5% 6.9% 8.6% 6.8% 13% 4.8% 4.5% 12% 16% 15% 6.8% 7.7% 13% 8.1%

Bulgaria 14% 4.5% 5.2% 14% 15% 14% 7.0% 6.9% 12% 8.3% 15% 5.3% 4.5% 9.9% 14% 15% 7.1% 6.5% 12% 10%

Canary Islands 15% 4.5% 4.8% 12% 17% 16% 6.8% 5.6% 9.4% 9.4% 13% 5.3% 5.1% 9.7% 12% 17% 7.9% 7.4% 11% 11%

Croatia 15% 5.7% 5.5% 13% 14% 14% 7.3% 7.0% 9.9% 9.0% 14% 5.3% 5.0% 12% 14% 14% 6.5% 7.0% 13% 9.9%

Cyprus 17% 6.5% 8.4% 17% 15% 13% 6.0% 5.1% 7.6% 5.3% 16% 5.5% 6.2% 15% 16% 14% 6.0% 5.7% 9.4% 6.9%

Czech Republic 15% 4.3% 5.8% 14% 17% 13% 6.3% 6.9% 11% 7.0% 15% 5.4% 4.7% 10% 14% 17% 6.4% 6.0% 12% 10%

Denmark 17% 6.3% 6.8% 12% 13% 14% 6.3% 5.7% 11% 7.5% 16% 5.9% 6.0% 13% 12% 12% 7.1% 6.3% 10% 11%

Estonia 16% 4.2% 6.1% 14% 14% 13% 6.8% 6.5% 9.5% 9.3% 16% 6.0% 4.8% 10% 15% 14% 6.0% 6.6% 12% 10%

FYROM 17% 6.6% 7.3% 15% 15% 14% 6.6% 6.2% 7.6% 4.8% 16% 5.3% 5.9% 14% 15% 14% 6.8% 6.2% 11% 5.8%

Finland 16% 5.5% 6.3% 13% 12% 13% 6.7% 6.7% 12% 8.7% 16% 5.6% 5.3% 12% 13% 12% 6.3% 6.3% 12% 12%

France 18% 5.9% 5.7% 12% 13% 13% 6.3% 6.1% 9.7% 9.5% 17% 6.0% 6.1% 12% 12% 12% 6.2% 6.1% 11% 11%

Georgia 17% 6.1% 7.5% 16% 14% 14% 6.6% 5.2% 6.8% 7.2% 19% 5.7% 4.5% 13% 15% 13% 6.3% 6.8% 10% 6.4%

Germany 13% 5.0% 5.4% 13% 12% 17% 7.5% 6.4% 10% 11% 13% 4.3% 4.7% 11% 13% 12% 8.2% 8.3% 13% 12%

Greece 15% 4.7% 5.5% 13% 15% 14% 6.5% 5.6% 10% 11% 13% 5.1% 5.1% 11% 13% 15% 7.4% 6.8% 11% 12%

Hungary 15% 5.1% 6.1% 14% 16% 13% 6.8% 7.1% 10% 7.7% 14% 5.2% 5.1% 12% 14% 16% 6.5% 5.4% 12% 9.2%

Iceland 20% 6.7% 7.7% 14% 13% 13% 6.3% 5.4% 7.7% 6.0% 19% 6.6% 6.0% 14% 13% 12% 5.9% 6.0% 10% 7.8%

Ireland 22% 5.7% 5.4% 14% 16% 13% 5.5% 5.2% 7.9% 5.3% 19% 7.1% 6.4% 11% 13% 15% 6.0% 5.8% 9.2% 7.4%

Italy 14% 4.7% 4.9% 11% 14% 16% 6.8% 6.2% 11% 11% 13% 4.8% 4.9% 10% 11% 15% 8.0% 7.6% 12% 14%

Latvia 15% 4.0% 6.4% 14% 13% 14% 7.3% 6.3% 10% 9.4% 15% 5.7% 4.9% 11% 15% 14% 6.4% 7.1% 12% 9.6%

Lisbon FIR 14% 5.3% 5.2% 12% 15% 15% 6.7% 6.3% 11% 10% 12% 4.9% 5.3% 11% 12% 16% 7.3% 7.2% 12% 13%

Lithuania 15% 5.5% 7.2% 12% 13% 15% 7.2% 6.1% 9.3% 9.5% 16% 4.9% 4.8% 13% 13% 13% 6.8% 7.7% 12% 8.7%

Malta 14% 6.3% 6.8% 13% 15% 13% 6.7% 6.3% 12% 7.4% 14% 4.7% 5.4% 13% 13% 14% 6.1% 6.5% 12% 11%

Moldova 16% 6.0% 8.2% 19% 14% 13% 6.9% 6.6% 5.6% 4.3% 15% 5.4% 5.0% 14% 19% 14% 5.6% 6.7% 11% 4.1%

Netherlands 17% 5.9% 6.1% 12% 13% 15% 6.9% 6.3% 11% 7.6% 16% 5.3% 5.9% 12% 12% 12% 7.3% 7.1% 12% 11%

Norway 18% 6.3% 6.8% 14% 14% 14% 6.1% 5.4% 9.5% 6.8% 18% 5.9% 5.8% 13% 13% 13% 6.6% 5.7% 9.7% 9.0%

Poland 15% 5.1% 6.4% 16% 15% 12% 7.7% 7.1% 8.5% 7.0% 14% 5.3% 4.6% 12% 16% 15% 5.7% 5.8% 13% 8.8%

Romania 16% 5.4% 5.1% 13% 16% 14% 7.1% 7.1% 9.3% 8.0% 14% 5.7% 5.4% 10% 13% 16% 8.2% 5.4% 13% 8.8%

Russian Federation 17% 4.4% 6.2% 17% 14% 14% 7.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.5% 18% 5.7% 5.0% 11% 17% 14% 5.5% 6.7% 11% 5.9%

Santa Maria FIR 14% 5.3% 5.2% 12% 15% 15% 6.7% 6.3% 11% 10% 12% 4.9% 5.3% 11% 12% 16% 7.3% 7.2% 12% 13%

Serbia&Montenegro 16% 6.3% 6.4% 13% 14% 13% 6.3% 7.3% 9.8% 7.0% 16% 5.5% 6.0% 13% 13% 14% 6.5% 6.1% 12% 8.2%

Slovakia 15% 5.3% 6.6% 16% 16% 13% 7.0% 6.7% 8.4% 5.5% 15% 5.2% 4.8% 12% 16% 16% 6.1% 6.2% 12% 7.1%

Slovenia 15% 4.5% 5.1% 14% 15% 15% 7.3% 7.2% 9.4% 8.5% 15% 5.0% 4.5% 9.8% 14% 15% 7.2% 7.0% 13% 10%

Spain 15% 4.5% 4.8% 12% 17% 16% 6.8% 5.6% 9.4% 9.4% 13% 5.3% 5.1% 9.7% 12% 17% 7.9% 7.4% 11% 11%

Sweden 17% 5.2% 7.1% 13% 13% 13% 5.9% 5.6% 11% 8.5% 18% 5.9% 5.4% 12% 13% 12% 6.6% 5.6% 10% 11%

Switzerland 15% 5.2% 6.1% 14% 14% 16% 6.6% 5.5% 9.7% 8.3% 15% 4.8% 5.2% 12% 14% 13% 7.5% 7.1% 11% 10%

Turkey 26% 8.5% 8.1% 16% 15% 11% 4.6% 3.7% 4.6% 2.9% 22% 7.6% 7.6% 15% 15% 13% 5.2% 4.5% 6.7% 3.7%

UK 18% 5.8% 6.5% 14% 13% 14% 6.0% 5.2% 9.8% 7.9% 18% 6.0% 5.4% 13% 13% 12% 6.7% 6.5% 9.7% 9.8%

Ukraine 15% 4.7% 6.2% 16% 15% 14% 6.9% 7.3% 7.7% 7.6% 16% 5.6% 4.3% 11% 17% 15% 6.1% 7.0% 12% 6.6%

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Figure 28: Population distribution per Traffic Region. Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

Comments: Only the population age distributions, not numbers (in 000s) are used.

Units: Percentage of TR population in this age range. Data last updated: 11/12/2015

Actual Base

2015 2025

Age 0 to 14

Age 15 to 19

Age 20 to 24

Age 25 to 34

Age 35 to 44

Age 45 to 54

Age 55 to 59

Age 60 to 64

Age 65 to 74

Age 75+

Age 0 to 14

Age 15 to 19

Age 20 to 24

Age 25 to 34

Age 35 to 44

Age 45 to 54

Age 55 to 59

Age 60 to 64

Age 65 to 74

Age 75+

Asia/Pacific 20% 6.6% 7.8% 16% 15% 15% 5.5% 5.0% 6.0% 3.7% 18% 6.1% 6.0% 14% 15% 14% 7.3% 5.9% 8.5% 4.9%

ESRA East 16% 4.7% 6.2% 16% 15% 13% 7.3% 6.9% 7.8% 6.9% 17% 5.5% 4.8% 11% 16% 14% 5.9% 6.5% 12% 6.9%

ESRA Mediterranean

15% 4.9% 5.2% 12% 15% 15% 6.8% 6.1% 10% 10% 13% 5.1% 5.1% 11% 12% 15% 7.7% 7.3% 12% 12%

ESRA North-West

15% 5.4% 5.7% 13% 13% 15% 6.9% 6.2% 10% 9.8% 15% 5.1% 5.4% 12% 13% 12% 7.3% 7.2% 12% 11%

Mid-Atlantic 28% 9.4% 8.9% 16% 13% 10% 3.9% 3.2% 4.1% 2.9% 24% 8.2% 8.2% 16% 14% 12% 4.8% 4.0% 5.5% 3.6%

Middle-East 30% 8.9% 8.7% 17% 14% 9.7% 3.5% 2.8% 3.2% 2.0% 28% 8.4% 8.0% 16% 14% 11% 4.2% 3.4% 4.6% 2.2%

North Atlantic 19% 6.4% 7.2% 14% 13% 14% 6.9% 5.9% 8.6% 6.3% 18% 6.3% 6.3% 13% 13% 12% 5.8% 6.4% 11% 8.3%

North-Africa 32% 8.7% 8.9% 17% 12% 9.3% 3.6% 2.8% 3.4% 1.9% 31% 8.8% 7.7% 14% 14% 10% 3.9% 3.3% 4.4% 2.1%

Other Europe 17% 4.4% 6.3% 17% 14% 14% 7.5% 6.7% 6.9% 6.6% 18% 5.6% 5.0% 11% 17% 14% 5.5% 6.7% 11% 5.9%

South-Atlantic 25% 8.5% 8.3% 16% 14% 12% 4.6% 3.8% 4.9% 3.1% 21% 7.4% 7.8% 15% 15% 12% 5.3% 4.7% 6.7% 4.2%

Southern Africa

43% 11% 9.1% 14% 9.6% 6.2% 2.2% 1.7% 2.2% 0.9% 41% 11% 9.3% 15% 10% 6.8% 2.3% 1.8% 2.3% 1.0%

On top of the United Nations forecast of population, we also rely on data related to the propensity10 to fly (see Figure 29) to estimate the future number of passengers, hence the future traffic demand. Two sets of data were used: data from the UK CAA based on surveys conducted in 2014 at Heathrow airport; data from the DGAC France in which propensity data have been collected over 15 French airports over the period 2014-2015.

Figure 29: Propensity to fly per age group. Source: UK CAA and French DGAC passenger surveys (2014-2015) and UN population forecast (2015 Revision)

Units: Flight Factor (%passengers/%population) per age bracket. Data last updated: 18/01/2016.

Note: base, high and low scenario values are identical

Age Bracket Actual Base

2015 2022

Age 0 to 14 0.12 0.12

Age 15 to 19 0.85 0.66

Age 20 to 24 1.92 1.77

Age 25 to 34 1.90 1.80

Age 35 to 44 1.61 1.54

Age 45 to 54 1.27 1.33

Age 55 to 59 1.05 1.27

Age 60 to 64 0.94 1.16

Age 65 to 74 0.56 0.72

Age 75+ 0.16 0.14

3.6 Airports

The forecast takes airport capacity into account. The airport capacity model used in the 7-year forecast is based on ‘effective annual capacity’ figures that are applied to the forecasted total annual traffic demand at the airports and

10

Propensity to fly is the annual number of flights generated per thousand population.

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/Content/Standard_Content/Data_and_analysis/Datasets/Passenger_survey/CAA%20Passenger%20Survey%20Report%202014.pdf

http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/SDE1-_2311g_-Rapport_internet_DGAC_Resultats_annuels_2014_-2015.pdf

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reduce the final forecasted number of movements to be within the annual capacity limits of the airports. A comprehensive set of capacity data has been gathered through the EUROCONTROL Network Manager Airport Unit’s online tool named the ‘Airport Corner’. The information coming directly from the airports and validated by the EUROCONTROL Airport Unit is deemed to be complete, realistic, reliable and of high quality. For incomplete information, the dataset has been completed by using direct information from Stakeholders. The data collection process for this forecast has been updated in January 2016 and covers a set of 101 airports, including the major ones. To respect the commercial sensitivity of this airport information, it is not published.

The assumptions shown in Figure 30 represent the expected traffic switches within the forecast period (varied by scenario). These assumptions are based on information from the news and/or information received from STATFOR User Group members.

The closure of Berlin/Tegel (EDDT), with traffic moving to the new airport Berlin/Brandenburg (EDDB) as of September 2017 in the base and the high scenario. In the low scenario, the new airport is planned to be operational one year later.

Also, the new (third) airport at Istanbul expected to be operational from October 2017 has been modelled in this forecast as a progressive increase in the capacity of LTBA11 (Istanbul/Atatürk) until the end of the forecast horizon. We assumed that LTBA will continue to operate (lesser extent) after the third airport will open.

Lastly, a new runway is planned at EDDM after 2021.

Figure 30. Airport traffic switch. Source: EUROCONTROL Data and analysis

Comments: Updated for MTF16 inputs

Units: Airport Traffic Switching. Data last updated: 18/01/2016

Low Base High

2018 2019 2017 2018 2017 2018

Traffic Type Traffic Between And Region Move To

16% 100% 16% 100% 16% 100% All EDDT - EDDB

3.7 High-Speed Train Network

The HST travel times (input data) have been updated for this 7-year forecast. A review of current state of projects has been conducted; the principal source of the HST data being the International Union of Railways (UIC12), Wikipedia or Stakeholder-supplied information (DGAC France, DFS Germany and DHMI Turkey). The rail projects listed here are only the ones for which improvements in travel time will be found within the forecast horizon.

11

For technical reasons the additional capacity available from the 3rd

airport is currently considered under LTBA. 12

UIC website: http://www.uic.org/

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Figure 31. High-Speed Train Times that change during the forecast. Source: Actuals from on-line timetables. Plans from various sources.

Units: Travel time (minutes). Data last updated: 21/01/2016 Distances estimated from airport locations.

Dist Rail Time (mins) Speed (km/h)

Km 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Amsterdam London H 359 286 . 240 . . . . . 75 . 90 . . . . .

B 359 286 240 . . . . . . 75 90 . . . . . .

L 359 286 240 . . . . . . 75 90 . . . . . .

Ankara

Sivas H 354 600 . . . 120 . . . 35 . . . 177 . . .

B 354 600 . . 120 . . . . 35 . . 177 . . . .

L 354 600 . . 120 . . . . 35 . . 177 . . . .

Bursa H 318 240 . . 135 . . . . 79 . . 141 . . . .

B 318 240 . 135 . . . . . 79 . 141 . . . . .

L 318 240 . 135 . . . . . 79 . 141 . . . . .

Barcelona Lyon H 530 300 . . 180 . . . . 106 . . 177 . . . .

B 530 300 . 180 . . . . . 106 . 177 . . . . .

L 530 300 . 180 . . . . . 106 . 177 . . . . .

Brussels

Luxembourg H 176 135 . 90 . . . . . 78 . 117 . . . . .

B 176 135 90 . . . . . . 78 117 . . . . . .

L 176 135 90 . . . . . . 78 117 . . . . . .

Strasbourg H 337 270 . 180 . . . . . 75 . 112 . . . . .

B 337 270 180 . . . . . . 75 112 . . . . . .

L 337 270 180 . . . . . . 75 112 . . . . . .

Copenhagen Hamburg H 286 270 . . . . . . 180 64 . . . . . . 95

B 286 270 . . . . . 180 . 64 . . . . . 95 .

L 286 270 . . . . . 180 . 64 . . . . . 95 .

Erfurt

Leipzig H 102 72 . . 39 . . . . 85 . . 156 . . . .

B 102 72 . 39 . . . . . 85 . 156 . . . . .

L 102 72 . 39 . . . . . 85 . 156 . . . . .

Munchen H 307 300 . . . 150 . . . 61 . . . 123 . . .

B 307 300 . . 150 . . . . 61 . . 123 . . . .

L 307 300 . . 150 . . . . 61 . . 123 . . . .

Nurnberg H 165 172 . . . 66 . . . 57 . . . 150 . . .

B 165 172 . . 66 . . . . 57 . . 150 . . . .

L 165 172 . . 66 . . . . 57 . . 150 . . . .

Frankfurt

Bern H 348 230 . . . . . 200 . 91 . . . . . 105 .

B 348 230 . . . . 200 . . 91 . . . . 105 . .

L 348 230 . . . . 200 . . 91 . . . . 105 . .

Bale Mulhouse H 274 170 . . . . . 140 . 97 . . . . . 118 .

B 274 170 . . . . 140 . . 97 . . . . 118 . .

L 274 170 . . . . 140 . . 97 . . . . 118 . .

Paris H 444 230 . . 215 . . . . 116 . . 124 . . . .

B 444 230 . 215 . . . . . 116 . 124 . . . . .

L 444 230 . 215 . . . . . 116 . 124 . . . . .

Stuttgart H 154 70 . . . 53 . . . 132 . . . 175 . . .

B 154 70 . . 53 . . . . 132 . . 175 . . . .

L 154 70 . . 53 . . . . 132 . . 175 . . . .

Istanbul

Ankara H 335 250 . 180 . . . . . 80 . 112 . . . . .

B 335 250 180 . . . . . . 80 112 . . . . . .

L 335 250 180 . . . . . . 80 112 . . . . . .

Konya H 454 275 . 205 . . . . . 99 . 133 . . . . .

B 454 275 205 . . . . . . 99 133 . . . . . .

L 454 275 205 . . . . . . 99 133 . . . . . .

Sivas H 682 1260 . . 300 . . . . 32 . . 136 . . . .

B 682 1260 . 300 . . . . . 32 . 136 . . . . .

L 682 1260 . 300 . . . . . 32 . 136 . . . . .

Karlsruhe

Bern H 239 180 . . . . . 150 . 80 . . . . . 96 .

B 239 180 . . . . 150 . . 80 . . . . 96 . .

L 239 180 . . . . 150 . . 80 . . . . 96 . .

Bale Mulhouse H 166 100 . . . . . 69 . 100 . . . . . 145 .

B 166 100 . . . . 69 . . 100 . . . . 145 . .

L 166 100 . . . . 69 . . 100 . . . . 145 . .

Koln/Bonn Bale Mulhouse H 361 230 . . . . . 200 . 94 . . . . . 108 .

B 361 230 . . . . 200 . . 94 . . . . 108 . .

L 361 230 . . . . 200 . . 94 . . . . 108 . .

Leipzig

Frankfurt H 310 210 . . . 180 . . . 89 . . . 103 . . .

B 310 210 . . 180 . . . . 89 . . 103 . . . .

L 310 210 . . 180 . . . . 89 . . 103 . . . .

Munchen H 354 345 . . . 190 . . . 62 . . . 112 . . .

B 354 345 . . 190 . . . . 62 . . 112 . . . .

L 354 345 . . 190 . . . . 62 . . 112 . . . .

Lille Rennes H 448 237 . . 200 . . . . 114 . . 135 . . . .

B 448 237 . 200 . . . . . 114 . 135 . . . . .

L 448 237 . 200 . . . . . 114 . 135 . . . . .

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Dist Rail Time (mins) Speed (km/h)

Km 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Madrid

Bilbao H 327 300 . . . . . . 130 65 . . . . . . 151

B 327 300 . . . . . 130 . 65 . . . . . 151 .

L 327 300 . . . . . 130 . 65 . . . . . 151 .

Bordeaux H 543 495 . . . . . . 260 66 . . . . . . 125

B 543 495 . . . . . 260 . 66 . . . . . 125 .

L 543 495 . . . . . 260 . 66 . . . . . 125 .

San Sebastian H 363 300 . . . . . . 135 73 . . . . . . 161

B 363 300 . . . . . 135 . 73 . . . . . 161 .

L 363 300 . . . . . 135 . 73 . . . . . 161 .

Santiago H 476 330 . . . 180 . . . 87 . . . 159 . . .

B 476 330 . . 180 . . . . 87 . . 159 . . . .

L 476 330 . . 180 . . . . 87 . . 159 . . . .

Vigo H 455 372 . . . 230 . . . 73 . . . 119 . . .

B 455 372 . . 230 . . . . 73 . . 119 . . . .

L 455 372 . . 230 . . . . 73 . . 119 . . . .

Munchen

Berlin H 481 360 . . . 245 . . . 80 . . . 118 . . .

B 481 360 . . 245 . . . . 80 . . 118 . . . .

L 481 360 . . 245 . . . . 80 . . 118 . . . .

Zurich H 260 250 . . . . . 195 . 62 . . . . . 80 .

B 260 250 . . . . 195 . . 62 . . . . 80 . .

L 260 250 . . . . 195 . . 62 . . . . 80 . .

Paris

Bordeaux H 519 182 . . 125 . . . . 171 . . 249 . . . .

B 519 182 . 125 . . . . . 171 . 249 . . . . .

L 519 182 . 125 . . . . . 171 . 249 . . . . .

Brest H 511 250 . . 180 . . . . 123 . . 170 . . . .

B 511 250 . 180 . . . . . 123 . 170 . . . . .

L 511 250 . 180 . . . . . 123 . 170 . . . . .

Madrid H 1062 595 . . 565 . . . 445 107 . . 113 . . . 143

B 1062 595 . 565 . . . 445 . 107 . 113 . . . 143 .

L 1062 595 . 565 . . . 445 . 107 . 113 . . . 143 .

Montpellie H 600 210 . . 180 . . . . 171 . . 200 . . . .

B 600 210 . 180 . . . . . 171 . 200 . . . . .

L 600 210 . 180 . . . . . 171 . 200 . . . . .

Munchen H 675 360 . 330 . . . . . 113 . 123 . . . . .

B 675 360 330 . . . . . . 113 123 . . . . . .

L 675 360 330 . . . . . . 113 123 . . . . . .

Rennes H 326 127 . . 90 . . . . 154 . . 217 . . . .

B 326 127 . 90 . . . . . 154 . 217 . . . . .

L 326 127 . 90 . . . . . 154 . 217 . . . . .

Stuttgart H 490 220 . 190 . . . . . 134 . 155 . . . . .

B 490 220 190 . . . . . . 134 155 . . . . . .

L 490 220 190 . . . . . . 134 155 . . . . . .

Toulouse H 596 296 . . 243 . . . . 121 . . 147 . . . .

B 596 296 . 243 . . . . . 121 . 147 . . . . .

L 596 296 . 243 . . . . . 121 . 147 . . . . .

Strasbourg

Luxembourg H 162 130 . 85 . . . . . 75 . 114 . . . . .

B 162 130 85 . . . . . . 75 114 . . . . . .

L 162 130 85 . . . . . . 75 114 . . . . . .

Lille H 405 240 . 150 . . . . . 101 . 162 . . . . .

B 405 240 150 . . . . . . 101 162 . . . . . .

L 405 240 150 . . . . . . 101 162 . . . . . .

Paris H 381 140 . . 110 . . . . 163 . . 208 . . . .

B 381 140 . 110 . . . . . 163 . 208 . . . . .

L 381 140 . 110 . . . . . 163 . 208 . . . . .

Tours Bordeaux H 314 155 . . 90 . . . . 122 . . 210 . . . .

B 314 155 . 90 . . . . . 122 . 210 . . . . .

L 314 155 . 90 . . . . . 122 . 210 . . . . .

Zurich Milan H 221 220 . . . . . 160 . 60 . . . . . 83 .

B 221 220 . . . . 160 . . 60 . . . . 83 . .

L 221 220 . . . . 160 . . 60 . . . . 83 . .

3.8 Emission Trading Schemes

The aviation industry has joined the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) in 2012. In April 2013, the EU decided to temporarily suspend enforcement of the EU ETS requirements for flights operated in 2010, 2011, and 2012 from or to non-European countries, while continuing to apply the legislation to flights within and between countries in Europe. In autumn 2013, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Assembly, mandated by the EU, reached an

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agreement to tackle aviation emissions globally. The ICAO Assembly agreed to develop by 2016 a global market-based mechanism addressing international aviation emissions and apply it by 2020. Considering the fact that the scope of the EU ETS application and its impact are currently reduced, the fact that carbon prices are now very low (around 8 euros/tonne in 201513), we have estimated that its impact on flight demand is small relative to the uncertainty within the 7-year horizon of this forecast. This component has therefore been de-activated.

3.9 Airline schedules

The schedules data of Innovata LLC have not been used in this forecast. Some adjustments were however added in the ‘Events and Trends’ (see Section 3.2) to take into account some growth in Summer 2016 seen in the schedule data.

13

State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015, World Bank.

http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/09/21/090224b0830f0f31/2_0/Rendered/PDF/State0and0trends0of0carbon0pricing02015.pdf

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4 Growth in IFR flights to 2022

Since the previous forecast was published in September 2015, the economic outlook remained fairly stable (circa 2% economic growth at European level for the next seven years). The new forecast is now for 11.5 million IFR flight movements (±1.2 million) in Europe in 2022, 16% more than in 2015.

The first year (2016) of the forecast expects a growth in traffic of 2.4% (±1.4 pp) which is in line with forecast published in September 2015. From 2017 onwards, European flight growth is expected to be back at around 2.1% per year over the 2017-2022 period. The 2008 peak of 10.2 million flights is forecasted to be reached again by 2017; a 9-year hiatus. Part of the traffic growth in Europe in 2016 and 2020 is due to the extra growth from the leap year effect (this effect accounts for 0.3% of the growth).

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to consider the low-to-high ranges.

Figure 32. Summary of the forecast for Europe.

ECAC 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 AAGR

2022/2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR


H . . . . 10,293 10,639 11,092 11,503 11,997 12,417 12,868 3.8% 3.3%

B 9,710 9,603 9,770 9,917 10,153 10,364 10,578 10,818 11,091 11,301 11,535 2.2% 2.1%

L . . . . 10,023 10,107 10,140 10,231 10,335 10,373 10,440 0.7% 0.9%

Annual

Growth (compared to previous year

unless otherwise mentioned)

H . . . . 3.8% 3.4% 4.3% 3.7% 4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3%

B -2.2% -1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%

L . . . . 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9%

Annex 2, Annex 3 and Annex 4 give the details of forecast traffic and growth per State and areas (ECAC, FABs, EU28…).

4.1 Short-term outlook (2016-2017)

On top of the recent and expected traffic trends, specific events explained in Section 2.1 and Section 3.2 are changing traffic patterns in the short-term:

Mutual ban on flights between Russia and Ukraine affects negatively Ukraine’s overflights.

Adverse travel advice for North-African States (Tunisia and Egypt) are shifting tourism overall towards Iberia and Greece.

On top of that, changes in Russian tourism destinations in response to recent events are likely to shift traffic from Turkey and Egypt to Iberian destinations.

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Europe as a whole

2016 forecast for Europe is now for a 2.4% (±1.4pp) flight growth, see Figure 33. This is in line with the September 2015 forecast. This high growth rate is among other things due to the extra growth from the leap year effect. We see both upside risks (e.g. fleet growth of LCCs) and downside risks (e.g. economic uncertainty). These are captured in the ±1.4pp range, and our assessment is that they are in balance for 2016. For more discussion of the risks, see Section 6.

2017 forecast for Europe is now for 2.1% (±1.3pp) flight growth; see Figure 34, a slight upwards revision of 0.2 percentage point compared to the September forecast.

Removing the effect of the leap year (±0.3pp) means that we expect a growth of 2.1% for both 2016 and 2.4% for 2017.

South-West axis:

For 2016, forecasts for Spain, Lisbon FIR, Canary Islands and Azores have been largely revised upwards due to higher traffic expected this Summer. The resulting respective growth for these countries are 6.7%, 5.9%, 6.4% and 6.2% growth (an increase of growth versus the September 2015 forecast varying between 1.7 pp and 3.5 pp). These countries are the main alternatives for tourist aiming to avoid Egypt, Tunisia and to a lesser extent Turkey.

Forecasts for Malta and Greece have been negatively revised in 2016 down to 1.3% and 3.3% (respectively). This is due to the pressure on their overflight linked to the reduction of traffic to Turkey.

Italy flights have also been revised downwards to 1.8%, notably due to the negative impact of the fee imposed by the Government on all departures.

South-East Axis:

Ukraine and Moldova have been again revised downwards due to the negative impact on overflight of the ban imposed mutually by Russia and Ukraine. They are now respectively at -6% and -5.4% of growth for 2016. Other surrounding countries have also seen their forecast revised but to a lesser extent.

North-West axis

Out of the busiest States, the forecasts of 2016 for UK and Spain have been revised upwards to 2.7% and 6.7%. Germany is stable with 2.7%. On the other hand, the 2016 forecasts for France and Italy have slightly been revised downwards to rates around 2.2% and 1.8%.

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Figure 33. Flight forecast details for 2016.

Figure 34. Flight forecast details for 2017.

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4.2 Medium-term outlook (up to 2022)

After 2018, the traffic growth in Europe stabilises at around 2.2% increase per year, showing higher rates in 2020 but this is due to the extra growth from the leap year effect.

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. By 2022, the high-growth scenario has 1.3 million more and low-growth scenario 1.1 million fewer flights than the base scenario. This forecast includes downside risks (e.g. capacity reductions in response to weaker demand) and upside risks (e.g. current high load factors might not be able to absorb the passenger demand). It is to be noted that, this forecast assumes14 no return to “normal” routing will happen by the end of the seven-year horizon (2022). That being said, there is a probability that some flights through Ukraine will be restored, which would result in significant variations in the forecast results. The risks are discussed in Section 6.

As Figure 35 and Figure 36 show, the growth is not uniform across Europe. While the growth (in percentage terms) is much weaker in most of the more mature markets of Western Europe, it is still the busiest States (Germany, France, Spain followed by UK, Italy and The Netherlands) which will see the greatest number of extra flights per day (Figure 36). Turkey will still see one of the fastest growth rates (4.2% as average annual growth rate over the 7 years) and the highest number of extra flights per day (1,248 additional flights per day in 2022), being the biggest contributor to the growth in Europe.

Figure 35. Average Annual Growth per State, 2022 vs 2015.

14

Assumptions in this document are purely for forecasting purposes and do not represent any policy of the Agency.

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Figure 36. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2022 vs 2015).

Figure 37 shows the corresponding Figure 35 at Functional Airspace Block level (FAB). Danube FAB is expected to have the highest average annual growth rate (3.3%) over the next seven years. FABEC and Blue Med FAB are the busiest European FABs with respectively 2,198 and 1,216 additional flights per day in 2022.

Figure 37. Average Annual Growth per FAB, 2022 vs 2015.

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Annex 3 and Annex 4 give the details of forecast traffic and growth per State and areas (ECAC, FAB, EU28…).

4.3 Comparison with previous forecast

Globally, the baseline forecast is slightly lower than the September 2015 forecast. Moreover, the uncertainty around high-and low-scenario has been reduced.

Figure 38 compares the current forecast (MTF16) for total Europe with the previous seven-year forecast issued in September 2015 (MTF15b). This comparison can only be done for the traffic region ESRA08 since ECAC was not yet calculated in the previous versions of the forecast. We observe that the current forecast (MTF16) remains quite well aligned with the previous one (MTF15b) even if slightly lower. The uncertainty has now been reduced for the whole forecast period (narrower low-to-high ranges) and in a much higher extent in the first two years of the forecast. The wider uncertainty observed in 2018 is explained by the switch from a pure statistical uncertainty in the short-term model (first two year of the forecast horizon) to a scenario-based uncertainty in the medium-term model.

Figure 38. For total Europe, current forecast is slightly lower than previous forecast (dated September 2015), with narrower short-term uncertainty.

4.4 High-speed train effect

Expansion of the high-speed train network reduces flight growth by just 0.5% over 7 years, though the local effects are more significant.

In the forecast model, reductions in travel time for high-speed train lead to reductions in the number of flights on the same city pair. The high-speed train (HST) improvements taken into account in this forecast are detailed in Section

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3.7. Some improvement plans of HST have been put on hold or cancelled since the February 2015 forecast.

The number of IFR movements that are lost to rail because of improvements in the high-speed train (HST) network are summarised in Figure 39. By 2022, it is now assessed that around 64,600 flights will be removed from the network. The effect is around 0.5% in total over the 7 years; which is small on the scale of the network as a whole (see Section 4.5 for the effect of capacity constraints). The impact of the train is reduced compared to the results observed in absolute terms in the February 2015 forecast (72,000 reduction in flights).

However, on specific city-pairs, the effect can be quite large, especially at the end of the horizon. As far as the States are concerned, France, Turkey and Spain will see the largest impacts in terms of flights: respectively a reduction of nearly 19,900 flights, 16,300 flights and 13,600 flights lost to train in 2022 which corresponds to 2.0%, 1.6% and 1.6% of their internal traffic.

Figure 39. Impact of High-Speed Train. (Reduction in flights when High-Speed train network

development is taken into account. Note that the HST impact is assessed on forecasts excluding capacity constraints).

Change in IFR Movements (000s) Percentage Change

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

High 0.0 10.6 34.5 53.8 63.5 67.0 78.1 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%

Base 0.9 20.6 38.7 46.7 49.6 58.0 64.6 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5%

Low 1.0 20.4 37.3 44.4 47.0 53.8 59.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6%


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Base Belgium/Lux. . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 . . . . 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Denmark . . . . . 0.3 0.6 . . . . . 0.1% 0.3%

France . 9.3 19.7 19.6 19.7 19.9 19.9 . 1.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Germany . 0.3 4.2 8.9 9.3 10.2 10.5 . 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%

Italy . . . . 0.3 0.7 0.7 . . . . 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

Netherlands . 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 . 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Spain . 0.3 2.5 4.5 4.6 9.1 13.6 . 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 1.6%

Switzerland . . . . 0.6 1.4 1.4 . . . . 0.2% 0.5% 0.5%

Turkey 0.9 8.7 10.3 11.9 13.4 14.8 16.3 0.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%

UK . 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 . 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

4.5 Airport capacity impact

Constraints at airports mean that demand for around 190 thousand flights cannot be accommodated by 2022, which is a 1.6% reduction in growth over the period. Compared to previous estimates of the impact, the main change is in the forecast volume of traffic not in the capacity values.

Airports provide their capacity plans to EUROCONTROL through the Airport Unit of the Network Manager. The published forecast is constrained by these capacity plans (see Section 3.6). We calculate the effects of airport capacity constraints by comparing the published forecast with a what-if? forecast that removes capacity constraints. The results are shown in Figure 40.

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In the base scenario, by 2022 around 191,000 flights cannot take place because the departure or arrival airport has reached its capacity. That is 1.6% of demand, so represents about 0.2% per year reduction in flight growth. This assumes that airports are able to deliver the capacity plans that they have, which has not always been the case.

Industry responds to constraints in a number of ways: airlines by up-gauging aircraft, or by growing or moving elsewhere; airports by expanding or enhancing their infrastructure; governments by investing in alternative modes, for example. The mitigation report (Ref. 6) from Challenges of Growth 2013 considered these mitigation options in more detail, at the 2035 horizon. In practice, this implies that some of these unaccommodated flights may be accommodated by other means that are beyond the scope of the present report to analyse.

Compared to the February 2015 forecast (Ref. 1) constraints have a similar impact at seven years ahead (1.6% in 2022, versus 1.7% in 2021 last year), but at the shared 2021 horizon, have a lower impact (for 2021: 1.3% in the February 2016 forecast, versus 1.7% in 2021 in the February 2015 forecast).

Figure 40. Impact of airport constraints. (Reduction in IFR flights when airport constraints are

taken into account.)


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

High 41.9 59.2 100.9 164.6 210.4 285.0 377.4 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 2.3% 2.9%

Base 35.5 34.1 54.2 83.2 113.7 143.7 191.0 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6%

Low 29.8 22.1 9.7 16.9 28.0 42.1 58.8 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6%

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5 Service unit growth to 2022

5.1 En-route Service Units (TSU)

Following a slowdown of the growth rates in Central Europe from August 2015, now that the routing patterns avoiding various airspace (e.g. Eastern Ukraine) have been in place for over 12 months, a slower growth in the service units is expected in 2016 compared to September 2015 forecast.

This revision downwards mainly concerns Central and Eastern European countries, such as the Czech Republic, Bulgaria or Romania forecasts because the lack of information about their trends-to-be 12 months after the Ukrainian airspace closure in the September forecast led to an overestimation. However, a downwards revision is also observed along the Adriatic coast (eg. Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia and Albania) and for Greece following the re-balancing of flows from Greece towards Malta after the Libyan airspace closure (see Section 2.1.2).

En-route service units are also expected to be lower in Norway and Finland because of their weaker economies, and consequently to have a negative impact on the en-route service units in Sweden.

On the other hand, a few countries saw their TSU forecast revised upwards following a stronger flight forecast: this is the case for Italy, UK, Germany and Switzerland which are expected to grow in 2016 by around 1 additional percentage point more compared to the September forecast. Spain, Canary Islands and Portugal growth have also been revised upwards in 2016 with expected additional traffic linked to their attractiveness as a holiday destination following the decline of North-African destinations (see Section 2.1.2).

For 2016, the total en-route service units in the participating EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO14) are expected to grow by 3.1% (±1.4pp) compared to 2015 and reach 141.9 million (Figure 41). This is a downwards revision by 0.7pp compared to the 3.8% growth forecast in the September 2015 forecast. Growth of service units in 2017 has also been revised downwards and is now expected to see a rate of 2.8% compared to 2016 to reach 146 million TSU, 0.2pp lower than in the previous forecast.

Considering that 2016 is a leap year, these growth figures might better be expressed in terms of average daily figures, which correspond respectively to a growth of 2.8% for 2016 and to a growth of 3.1% for 2017.

The service units will end 1.5 million lower than expected in the September 2015 forecast, reaching in total 163.4 million by 2021, and 167.6 million TSU in 2022, which represents an average growth rate of 2.9% compared to 2015. The full comparison between the September 2015 forecast and this February 2016 one is available in Figure 43.

Any user of this seven-year forecast should consult the entire forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (e.g. the economic indicators could worsen) and upside risks (e.g. high load factors could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-than-expected).

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The average annual growth figures per State can be found in Figure 42. The detailed forecasts for each State are in Annex 6 (Figure 60 and Figure 61).

Figure 41. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.

Total en-route service units (Thousands)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2022/ 2014 Total

Growth

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

CRCO14*

H . . . . 143,850 149,529 157,405 164,524 172,643 179,748 187,436 36% . 4.5%

B 122,298 124,910 132,130 137,689 141,945 145,972 150,229 154,606 159,406 163,372 167,633 22% 2.2% 3.2%

L . . . . 140,069 142,465 143,840 145,952 148,170 149,492 151,194 10% . 2.0%

RP2Region†

H . . . . 120,307 124,587 130,750 136,089 142,252 147,468 153,080 33% . 4.0%

B 105,251 106,930 111,670 115,063 118,792 121,710 124,870 128,055 131,610 134,414 137,421 19% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 117,295 118,886 119,630 121,018 122,500 123,203 124,221 8% . 1.6%

Total en-route service units

(Growth) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR

2022/ 2014

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

CRCO14*

H . . . . 4.5% 3.9% 5.3% 4.5% 4.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% . 4.5%

B -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 3.2%

L . . . . 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% . 2.0%

RP2Region†

H . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 4.9% 4.1% 4.5% 3.7% 3.8% 4.2% . 4.0%

B -1.4% 1.6% 4.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 1.9% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% . 1.6%

* CRCO14 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2014 of all TSU either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year. †RP2Region refers to the 28 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland. RP2 series includes service units for flight segments performed as

Operational Air Traffic (OAT) for Germany.

Figure 42. Average annual growth of service units between 2015 and 2022.

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Figure 43. Comparison 2015-2021 between the current TSU forecast and September 2015 for CRCO14 Area

5.2 Terminal Navigation Service Units (TNSU)

This TNSU forecast is based on the 2016-2022 IFR flight forecast and uses the CRCO flight database for all States except for Estonia which provided STATFOR with its own data, to capture the necessary information about weight of the aircraft. More details about the TNSU forecast method can be found in Ref. 2. The definition of the terminal charging zones (TCZ) is based on the known list of airports per TCZ for RP2 provided by States as available in their RP2 performance plans at the end of 2015 (see Annex 1 for RP2 region definition and TCZ list). The detailed results per TCZ are given in Annex 8 and Annex 9 (Figure 62 and Figure 63). Figure 45 provides a summary of these results.

In 2016, the terminal navigation service units are expected to grow by 3.1% compared to 2015 to reach 7.7 million in the states concerned by the second reference period (RP2 Region), which represents a growth of 2.8% in daily terms as 2016 is a leap year. In 2017, an annual growth rate of 2.8% (i.e. 3.1% growth in daily terms because of the leap year effect) is expected.

The expected average annual growth rate (AAGR) for the RP2 region during the second reference period (2019 compared to 2014) is expected to stand at 3% and after the end of the reference period, in 2022, 9.1 million TNSU are expected for the whole region (Figure 45), which represents a total growth of 22.2% compared to 2015.

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Figure 44. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2 Region area

RP2 Region

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2021

2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

AAGR RP1

2014/ 2011

AAGR RP2

2019/ 2014

TNSU Total

(thousands)

H . . . . . 7,819.3 8,130.1 8,548.1 8,945.4 9,380.7 9,764.3 10,173.6 4.5% . 4.2%

B 7,376.4 7,234.3 7,223.5 7,266.7 7,484.2 7,714.4 7,927.6 8,152.7 8,403.3 8,674.4 8,891.0 9,144.1 2.9% -0.5% 3.0%

L . . . . . 7,613.0 7,731.5 7,798.0 7,948.1 8,083.8 8,174.8 8,290.8 1.5% . 1.8%

TNSU Annual Growth

(%)

H . . . . . 4.5% 4.0% 5.1% 4.6% 4.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.5% . 4.2%

B 8.6% -1.9% -0.1% 0.6% 3.0% 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% -0.5% 3.0%

L . . . . . 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% . 1.8%

An overview of the additional TNSU expected by 2022 as well as the average annual growth rates is presented in Figure 45

Figure 45. TNSU 7-year forecast February 2016 overview – Average annual growth and estimated additional daily TNSU generated between 2022 and 2015 per TCZ.

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6 Risks to the forecast growth

Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. These flight forecasts are prepared in conditions of large changes in traffic routings. For many individual States, these are the biggest risks for traffic growth.

The main sources of uncertainty in the intermediate forecast are as follows.

In percentage terms for individual States, the biggest risks concern the route choices of airlines, which are generally downside risks for some States and simultaneously upside risks for others, balancing out across Europe as a whole:

By 2022 there is a significant probability that some flights through Ukraine will be restored.

Closure of Libyan airspace has reduced Maltese overflights as well as re-routed traffic to southern Africa. It is not clear when normal patterns will be restored.

Currently, the Syrian conflict is having an important impact on overflights across South-East Europe. We have not included an end to this in our scenario nor intensification, though clearly at some point this network disruption will clear and the overflight changes reverse. Avoidance of Iraq and to a lesser extent Sinai is less significant for the forecast.

The immigration crisis linked to the Syrian and Libyan conflict and the response of the Governments of the 26-country Schengen area is also a downside risk. Under the rules governing the open travel area, governments could suspend the Schengen system for two years, which would deter passenger travel, though to an unknown extent.

Previous years have seen persistent (many months) reduction in en route capacity as a result of the introduction of new ATC systems. This results in tactical and strategic re-routing of traffic, enough to affect annual totals. More changes are on the way, presenting further risks, for example Czech Republic, FYROM, Spain, Portugal and Norway have changes planned.

The jet stream influences route choice too, though this is more usually an effect over days or weeks than over the whole year.

Unit rates are one of the many factors that influence an airline’s choice of route. Large changes in rates could lead to low single-figure percentage changes in flight counts.

Oil prices remain changeable. With fuel accounting for around 20% of operating costs, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer (see Section 2.1). There is, in the short-term, an upside risk if the airlines start reflecting the fall of fuel costs to the ticket prices (cheaper); the most recent data from Eurostat suggests prices may finally be in decline. On the opposite, a surge in oil prices could lead in an increase of fuel cost, hence an increase of the ticket prices which is a downside risk.

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More generally, future network changes (e.g., new routes) and airlines’ changing choice of routes are not modelled by the forecast.

The economic forecasts used here were updated in January 2016. The economic outlook remains uncertain. The low scenario provides some guidance here. Economic risks are to some extent synchronised, so do not balance out across Europe as routing risks do.

A few years ago, two States, Turkey and Russia, were the predominant drivers of flight growth. This makes growth sensitive to the continued expansion of these two economies. Sanctions on Russia, and Russia's response to them, are significant for the downward revision of the forecast overall. This could improve, but could easily get worse, representing on balance a downside risk.

On the other hand, there are growing competitive pressures for expansion, especially for low-cost carriers, so as aircraft deliveries accelerate we could see more rapid expansion, although in our view this is likely to be localised. The high scenario provides some guidance for this, but only for local, not widespread application.

Load factors remain at or near record highs (Section 2.1). As traffic begins to grow again, this means that load factors might be able to absorb less of the passenger growth than they have in past years. From the present position, the recovery would then come more rapidly than anticipated. This is therefore an upside risk.

Tourism trends are quite variable. The forecast does not identify which will be the new holiday ‘destination of preference’ in a given year. The recent events in both Egypt and Tunisia have led to more variability in tourism destinations. On the whole this is more likely a downside risk.

Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. Following the February 2014 forecast publication, in which a further volcanic eruption or pandemic were mentioned as some of the risks, both have occurred. The impact on air traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant. The Zika virus is included here as a potential risk.

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7 Glossary

AAGR Average annual growth

AD, A/D Arrivals/Departures

AIRAC Aeronautical Information and Regulation and Control

AEA Association of European Airlines

B (in tables) Baseline Scenario

CRCO11 States participating to the Multilateral Route Charges System dated 2012. Namely, CRCO11 includes Albania, Armenia, Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Belgrade, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canary Islands, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, FYROM, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lisbon FIR, Lithuania, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Santa Maria FIR, , Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.

CRCO14 States participating to the Multilateral Route Charges System dated 2014. Namely CRCO14 includes the list of States within CRCO11 plus Georgia.

ECAC European Civil Aviation Conference(see Annex 1)

ESRA Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex 1)

EU27 European Union (27 States)

EU28 European Union (28 States): EU27 plus Croatia.

FAB Functional Airspace Block

FIR Flight Information Region

GDP Gross Domestic Product

H (in tables) High-Growth Scenario

I Internals

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

KFOR Kosovo Force

L (in tables) Low-Growth Scenario

MTF Medium-Term (Seven-Year) Forecast

NM Network Manager

O Overflights

OE Oxford Economics Ltd

pp percentage point

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PScheme States involved in the Performance scheme first period of reference (EU27, Norway and Switzerland – no longer used)

RP1 First Period of Reference (2012-2014) for the Performance Scheme of the SES

RP2 Second Period of Reference (2015-2019) for the Performance Scheme of the SES

RP1Region See PScheme

RP2Region States involved in the Performance scheme second period of reference (EU28, Norway and Switzerland)

SES Single European Sky

SID STATFOR Interactive Dashboard

STATFOR Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service

TCZ Terminal Charging Zone (a grouping of airports)

TNSU Terminal Navigation Service Units

TSU Total En-Route Service Units

TZ Traffic Zone (≈State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro)

UIR Upper Flight Information Region

Other abbreviations and acronyms used in this document are available in the EUROCONTROL Air Navigation Inter-site Acronym List (AIRIAL) which may be found here:

http://www.eurocontrol.int/airial/definitionListInit.do?skipLogon=true&glossaryUid=AIRIAL



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Annex 1 Traffic region definitions

ECAC

The European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) is an intergovernmental organization which was established by ICAO and the Council of Europe. ECAC now totals 44 members, including all 28 EU, 31 of the 32 European Aviation Safety Agency member states, and all 41 EUROCONTROL member states.

It is now used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts.

Figure 46. Map of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) Area.

ESRA08

The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of sources within the Agency ‘ESRA08’ was introduced in the MTF09 report. It was used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts up to September 2015.

ESRA08 consists of 34 traffic zones. Traffic zones are defined by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not take delegation of airspace into account. For individual States, the differences between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between a FIR and an ACC definition is small.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_of_Europe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_European_Union

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Figure 47. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.

Traffic regions

The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official position of the EUROCONTROL Agency. As far as possible, these regions have been aligned with ICAO statistical and forecast regions. Traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed in Figure 48. Each traffic region is made up of a number of traffic zones (=States), which are indicated by the first letters of the ICAO location codes for brevity.

Figure 48. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012.

ICAO region/country

ESRA North-West EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS

ESRA Mediterranean GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT

ESRA East BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK

Other Europe BG, BI, EE, EK (Faroe Islands), ENSB (Bodo Oc.), EV, EY, GE, LX, UB, UD, UG, UH, UI, UL, UM, UN, UO, UR, US, UU, UW, Shanwick Oc., Santa Maria FIR

North Atlantic C, K, P

Mid-Atlantic M, T

South-Atlantic S

North-Africa DA, DT, GM, HE, HL

Southern Africa D, F, G, H, (except DA, DT, HE, HL, GC, GM)

Middle-East L, O (except OA, OP)

Asia/Pacific A, N, P, Y, OA, OP, R, V, W, Z (except ZZZZ), U (except UK and areas in Other Europe)

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As far as “Europe” is concerned, it is split into two regions: ESRA (defined in the previous section) and Other Europe. For flow purposes, ESRA is split into a “North-West” region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a “Mediterranean” region stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist element, and an Eastern region. The ‘Other Europe’ region (i.e. non ESRA) includes the States along the border of ESRA and extends from Greenland to the Urals and Azerbaijan. The map of the nine traffic regions used in our statistics is displayed in Figure 49.

Figure 49. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics.

EU28

This 7-year forecast report includes EU28, taking the accession of Croatia into account. The traffic counts exclude Canaries and Azores.

CRCO11

‘CRCO11’ refers to the EUROCONTROL Member States participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012. This list comprises: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canary Islands, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, FYROM, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lisbon FIR, Lithuania, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Santa Maria FIR, Serbia-Montenegro-, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.

CRCO14

‘CRCO14’ refers to the EUROCONTROL Member States participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2014. This list comprises: CRCO11 and Georgia, which joined EUROCONTROL in 2014.

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Functional Airspace Blocks

On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from 2014 to 2020 for the Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of airspace based on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries (Figure 50). FAB initiatives (definitions) are now frozen according to the targets defined to improve the performance of the European air traffic management network. STATFOR defines the FABs based on the FIR15 boundaries. The definition of FAB-FIR is:

UK-Ireland FAB (Scottish FIR&UIR, London FIR&UIR, Shannon FIR&UIR)

Danish-Swedish FAB (Copenhagen FIR, Sweden FIR)

Baltic FAB (Warszawa FIR, Vilnius FIR&UIR)

BLUE MED FAB (Nicosia FIR&UIR, Athinai FIR&UIR, Brindisi FIR&UIR, Milano FIR&UIR, Roma FIR&UIR, Malta FIR&UIR)

Danube FAB (Sofia FIR, Bucarest FIR)

FAB CE (Zagreb FIR, Budapest FIR, Ljubljana FIR, Praha FIR, Wien FIR, Sarajevo FIR&UIR, Bratislava FIR)

FABEC (Brussels FIR&UIR, Langen FIR, Munchen FIR, Rhein UIR, Hannover UIR, Bremen FIR, Amsterdam FIR, Bordeaux FIR, Reims FIR, Paris FIR, France UIR, Marseille FIR, Brest FIR, Switzerland FIR, Switzerland UIR)

North European FAB (Tallinn FIR, Finland FIR&UIR, Enor FIR, Riga FIR, Bodo Oceanic FIR)

South West FAB (Canarias FIR&UIR, Lisboa FIR, Madrid FIR&UIR, Barcelona FIR&UIR). Canaries are currently not included in the forecast tables of South West FAB in Annex 3 and Annex 4.

Figure 50. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission.

15 Note that the PRU uses the FAB-ANSP definition.

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RPRegions

RP1Region and RP2Region are the two regions involved in the Performance Scheme respectively related to First Reference Period (2012-2014) and Second Review Period (2015-2019).

RP1Region: stands for the sum over all the 29 States that were involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the first period, namely: 28 EU Member States plus Norway plus Switzerland minus Croatia.

RP2Region: stands for the sum over all the 30 States that are involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the second period, namely: 28 EU Member States plus Norway plus Switzerland. This zone is also called SES-RP2 in this report.

The “PScheme” region presented in previous reports (Traffic Tables of the Annexes) is not reported anymore, as it could introduce some confusion with respect to the RPRegions above mentioned.

SES-RP2

The SES-RP2 area mentioned in this report is covering the 30 States that are involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the second period, namely: 28 EU member States plus Norway plus Switzerland. SES-RP2 includes Canarias but not Azores. The SES-RP2 zone is also called RP2Region in our reports.

Figure 51. States within SES-RP2 Region in this report (Performance Scheme Region for the Second Review Period).

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The “SES” region presented in previous reports (Traffic Tables of the Annexes) is not reported anymore, as it could introduce some confusion with respect to the SES-RP2 above mentioned.

Terminal Charging Zones

A “terminal charging zone” is an airport or a group of airports for which a cost-based unit rate is established.

The list of aerodromes forming the TCZs during RP2 for the 30 States participating in the SES performance scheme (RP2) can be found in Figure 52.

The main change in this forecast is the addition of UK _TCZ_C defined by the UK as a separate terminal charging zone, which covers the London Approach Service (LAS) for the five London airports (Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton and London City). These five airports are also part of the nine airports forming the UK_TCZ_B.

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Figure 52. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP2.

Austria

LO_TCZ

LOWG LOWI LOWK LOWL LOWS LOWW

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBAW

EBAW

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBBR

EBBR

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBCI

EBCI

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBLG

EBLG

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBOS

EBOS

Bulgaria

LB_TCZ

LBSF

Croatia

LD_TCZ

LDZA LDZL

Cyprus

LC_TCZ

LCLK LCPH

Czech Republic

LK_TCZ

LKKV LKMT LKPR LKTB

Denmark

EK_TCZ

EKCH

Estonia

EE_TCZ

Finland

EF_TCZ

EETN EETU

EFHK

France

LF_TCZ

LFAQ LFBA LFBD LFBE LFBH LFBI LFBL LFBO LFBP LFBT LFBZ LFCR LFGJ LFJL LFJR LFKB LFKC LFKF LFKJ LFLB LFLC LFLL LFLP LFLS LFLX LFLY LFMD LFMH LFMI LFMK LFML LFMN LFMP LFMT LFMU LFMV LFOB LFOH LFOK LFOT LFPB LFPG LFPN LFPO LFQQ LFRB LFRD LFRG LFRH LFRK LFRN LFRO LFRQ LFRS LFRZ LFSB LFSD LFSL LFST LFTH LFTW

Germany

ED_TCZ

EDDB EDDC EDDE EDDF EDDG EDDH EDDK EDDL EDDM EDDN EDDP EDDR EDDS EDDT EDDV EDDW

Greece

LG_TCZ LGAV

Hungary

LH_TCZ LHBP

Ireland

EI_TCZ EICK EIDW EINN

Italy

LI_TCZ_1 LIRF

Italy

LI_TCZ_2 LIMC LIME LIML LIPZ

Latvia

EV_TCZ EVLA EVRA EVVA

Lithuania

EY_TCZ EYKA EYPA EYSA EYVI

Luxembourg

EL_TCZ ELLX

Malta

LM_TCZ LMML

Netherlands

EH_TCZ EHAM EHBK EHGG EHRD

Norway

EN_TCZ ENBR ENGM ENVA ENZV

Poland

EP_TCZ

EPBY EPGD EPKK EPKT EPLB EPLL EPMO EPPO EPRA EPRZ EPSC EPSY EPWA EPWR EPZG

Portugal

LP_TCZ

LPAZ LPFL LPFR LPHR LPMA LPPD LPPR LPPS LPPT

Romania

LR_TCZ LRBS LROP

Slovakia

LZ_TCZ LZIB

Slovenia

LJ_TCZ LJLJ LJMB LJPZ

Spain

LE_TCZ

GCLP LEBL LEMD LEMG LEPA

Sweden

ES_TCZ_A ESSA

Switzerland

LS_TCZ LSGG LSZH

UK

EG_TCZ_B

EGBB EGCC EGGW EGKK EGLC EGLL EGPF EGPH EGSS

UK

EG_TCZ_B

EGGW EGKK EGLC EGLL EGSS

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Annex 2 Summary of forecast for ECAC

Figure 53. Growth in Europe (ECAC)

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Figure 54. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ECAC)

ECAC IFR Flight Movements(000s) Annual Growth AAGR

2022/ 2015

RP2

2019/2014 AAGR 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Total: Internal

H . . . . 8,213 8,468 8,788 9,068 9,408 9,688 9,987 . . . . 4.6% 3.1% 3.8% 3.2% 3.8% 3.0% 3.1% 3.5% 3.4%

B 7,751 7,576 7,681 7,855 8,106 8,251 8,391 8,549 8,736 8,868 9,017 -3.2% -2.3% 1.4% 2.3% 3.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2%

L . . . . 8,006 8,052 8,053 8,103 8,162 8,168 8,197 . . . . 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1%

Total: Arr/Dep

H . . . . 1,908 1,991 2,112 2,231 2,369 2,494 2,629 . . . . 1.2% 4.3% 6.0% 5.6% 6.2% 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 3.2%

B 1,813 1,863 1,908 1,886 1,880 1,939 2,006 2,079 2,156 2,226 2,302 1.9% 2.7% 2.4% -1.1% -0.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.2% 3.4% 2.9% 1.7%

L . . . . 1,852 1,887 1,915 1,951 1,991 2,019 2,052 . . . . -1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5%

Total: Overflight

H . . . . 171 180 192 205 220 235 252 . . . . -3.0% 5.0% 6.8% 6.8% 7.1% 6.8% 7.3% 5.2% 2.5%

B 145 165 181 177 168 174 181 190 199 207 217 6.6% 14% 9.9% -2.7% -4.9% 3.7% 4.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.3% 4.6% 3.0% 0.9%

L . . . . 165 169 172 177 182 186 191 . . . . -6.8% 2.6% 2.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6% 1.1% -0.5%

Grand Total

H . . . . 10,293 10,639 11,092 11,503 11,997 12,417 12,868 . . . . 3.8% 3.4% 4.3% 3.7% 4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3%

B 9,710 9,603 9,770 9,917 10,153 10,364 10,578 10,818 11,091 11,301 11,535 -2.2% -1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%

L . . . . 10,023 10,107 10,140 10,231 10,335 10,373 10,440 . . . . 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9%

Network Manager




Figure 55. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ECAC

IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth AAGR 2022/ 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

1 ESRA North-W

ESRA North-W

H . . . . 3533.6 3583.9 3634.0 3671.8 3746.9 3786.0 3825.9 . . . . 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4%

B 3581.4 3491.4 3467.5 3462.4 3502.5 3516.2 3522.2 3545.5 3581.9 3594.5 3610.5 -2.7% -2.5% -0.7% -0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6%

L . . . . 3472.8 3456.7 3430.5 3429.6 3432.3 3410.4 3397.9 . . . . 0.3% -0.5% -0.8% -0.0% 0.1% -0.6% -0.4% -0.3%

2 ESRA Mediter

ESRA North-W

H . . . . 1952.6 2024.8 2115.7 2187.7 2267.9 2332.7 2402.4 . . . . 6.8% 3.7% 4.5% 3.4% 3.7% 2.9% 3.0% 4.0%

B 1653.8 1680.2 1765.5 1828.8 1923.1 1968.7 2009.3 2050.9 2097.1 2130.2 2166.3 -1.3% 1.6% 5.1% 3.6% 5.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 1.6% 1.7% 2.4%

L . . . . 1894.7 1914.8 1916.2 1928.6 1942.1 1944.0 1951.5 . . . . 3.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9%

3 ESRA Mediter

ESRA Mediter

H . . . . 1465.6 1526.5 1605.4 1682.8 1766.6 1849.0 1936.2 . . . . 6.8% 4.2% 5.2% 4.8% 5.0% 4.7% 4.7% 5.0%

B 1350.0 1266.2 1313.4 1372.7 1440.9 1481.1 1524.1 1566.9 1614.7 1652.2 1695.3 -8.8% -6.2% 3.7% 4.5% 5.0% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1%

L . . . . 1420.4 1439.1 1453.3 1469.8 1490.1 1500.5 1514.9 . . . . 3.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.4%

4 ESRA East

ESRA North-W

H . . . . 575.0 606.3 649.8 688.5 730.6 767.7 807.4 . . . . 5.2% 5.4% 7.2% 6.0% 6.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.7%

B 520.4 525.8 515.5 546.5 566.0 586.5 608.4 630.4 654.6 675.3 697.6 0.0% 1.0% -1.9% 6.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5%

L . . . . 557.3 568.2 573.0 583.7 593.7 600.0 607.8 . . . . 2.0% 2.0% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5%

5 ESRA North-W

North Atlant

H . . . . 315.4 322.4 330.0 337.2 348.4 355.1 361.5 . . . . 1.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 3.3% 1.9% 1.8% 2.2%

B 293.7 292.2 299.4 311.2 313.2 319.4 323.8 328.5 333.6 337.0 340.6 -2.7% -0.5% 2.5% 3.9% 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3%

L . . . . 310.9 314.8 317.4 319.6 322.3 322.7 323.8 . . . . -0.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6%

Network Manager




Annex 3 Seven-year flight forecast per state (IFR Movements)

This appendix presents the flight forecast details. On top of the average annual growth rates (AAGR) over the 7-year horizon, average annual growth rates over the first reference period (RP1) and the second reference period (RP2) of the Performance Scheme have been added to the tables.

Figure 56. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State.


IFR Movements (thousands) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Albania H . . . . 195 207 218 229 241 252 265 3.9% .

B 195 201 198 202 190 199 205 211 219 225 232 2.0% .

L . . . . 186 192 193 196 200 202 205 0.2% .

Armenia H . . . . 40 44 47 50 54 58 63 5.9% .

B 56 52 51 42 40 42 44 46 49 52 54 3.7% .

L . . . . 39 41 42 43 44 46 47 1.6% .

Austria H . . . . 1,201 1,243 1,306 1,359 1,420 1,472 1,530 3.9% 3.4%

B 1,133 1,114 1,152 1,168 1,183 1,209 1,241 1,271 1,304 1,331 1,360 2.2% 2.0%

L . . . . 1,166 1,176 1,181 1,195 1,208 1,214 1,222 0.7% 0.7%

Azerbaijan H . . . . 131 137 148 159 171 184 197 7.0% .

B 130 129 127 123 129 134 141 148 156 164 173 5.0% .

L . . . . 127 130 134 139 144 149 154 3.2% .

Belarus H . . . . 274 284 300 315 331 345 361 4.6% .

B 240 255 269 263 270 276 284 292 301 308 316 2.7% .

L . . . . 266 268 269 273 277 279 282 1.0% .

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . 1,216 1,254 1,306 1,342 1,385 1,417 1,451 3.2% 3.4%

B 1,089 1,101 1,133 1,165 1,201 1,226 1,254 1,280 1,309 1,328 1,349 2.1% 2.5%

L . . . . 1,187 1,197 1,202 1,212 1,223 1,226 1,232 0.8% 1.4%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . 324 336 356 374 394 412 432 4.8% .

B 268 262 298 311 318 325 335 345 357 366 377 2.8% .

L . . . . 312 315 317 321 326 329 332 1.0% .

Bulgaria H . . . . 801 837 889 937 993 1,045 1,102 5.3% 6.5%

B 540 551 683 767 788 813 841 870 901 929 959 3.2% 4.9%

L . . . . 776 790 800 815 829 840 852 1.5% 3.6%

Canary Islands H . . . . 304 317 333 346 360 373 388 4.7% 4.1%

B 275 265 284 281 299 307 313 320 326 331 337 2.6% 2.4%

L . . . . 294 298 297 297 298 297 297 0.8% 1.0%

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Croatia H . . . . 546 566 598 626 658 687 718 4.3% 3.8%

B 495 492 520 535 536 547 562 578 597 612 628 2.3% 2.2%

L . . . . 526 529 532 538 545 550 555 0.5% 0.7%

Cyprus H . . . . 321 336 362 389 419 448 481 6.0% 5.0%

B 270 277 304 319 314 324 338 354 371 386 404 3.4% 3.0%

L . . . . 308 312 317 325 334 340 348 1.2% 1.3%

Czech Republic H . . . . 791 826 872 911 956 998 1,042 4.9% 5.4%

B 679 680 700 746 780 803 825 846 871 892 915 3.0% 3.8%

L . . . . 769 782 785 798 808 814 821 1.4% 2.7%

Denmark H . . . . 654 672 696 717 747 768 790 3.4% 3.0%

B 605 618 619 626 646 656 668 680 693 702 712 1.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 639 641 642 645 649 648 648 0.5% 0.8%

Estonia H . . . . 200 207 218 229 242 253 265 4.6% 3.6%

B 189 183 191 194 197 201 207 213 219 224 231 2.5% 2.1%

L . . . . 195 196 197 199 202 203 205 0.8% 0.8%

FYROM H . . . . 158 165 174 183 194 203 214 5.0% .

B 113 113 146 152 155 159 164 169 175 180 186 2.9% .

L . . . . 152 154 155 157 160 161 164 1.1% .

Finland H . . . . 255 260 268 276 286 293 302 2.8% 2.2%

B 252 243 248 248 252 254 257 260 264 267 270 1.2% 1.0%

L . . . . 249 248 246 246 247 245 245 -0.2% -0.1%

France H . . . . 3,100 3,203 3,333 3,438 3,561 3,649 3,742 3.2% 3.1%

B 2,923 2,902 2,947 2,992 3,056 3,116 3,174 3,240 3,312 3,364 3,421 1.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 3,014 3,036 3,033 3,054 3,077 3,081 3,094 0.5% 0.7%

Georgia H . . . . 124 131 142 154 166 179 192 6.7% .

B 108 110 116 122 122 127 134 142 150 157 166 4.4% .

L . . . . 120 124 127 132 137 141 145 2.5% .

Germany H . . . . 3,201 3,300 3,428 3,538 3,667 3,774 3,889 3.4% 3.1%

B 3,018 2,990 3,030 3,080 3,163 3,226 3,280 3,342 3,416 3,471 3,534 2.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 3,125 3,151 3,157 3,193 3,221 3,229 3,245 0.7% 1.1%

Greece H . . . . 751 777 822 867 920 971 1,028 5.4% 5.0%

B 633 623 678 713 736 750 773 798 830 858 889 3.2% 3.3%

L . . . . 721 725 730 742 757 769 783 1.3% 1.8%

Hungary H . . . . 784 821 871 917 972 1,022 1,077 5.4% 6.5%

B 589 600 670 744 772 798 823 850 880 907 935 3.3% 4.9%

L . . . . 760 775 783 795 809 819 830 1.6% 3.5%

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Iceland H . . . . 169 176 185 193 204 213 223 4.8% .

B 123 131 145 160 167 173 178 183 189 194 200 3.2% .

L . . . . 165 169 171 174 177 179 181 1.8% .

Ireland H . . . . 595 612 640 661 678 691 704 3.2% 4.2%

B 521 522 537 566 589 602 618 633 650 662 670 2.4% 3.3%

L . . . . 583 589 596 604 612 617 623 1.4% 2.4%

Italy H . . . . 1,754 1,818 1,914 1,997 2,088 2,167 2,254 4.1% 3.5%

B 1,685 1,648 1,680 1,696 1,726 1,761 1,806 1,849 1,897 1,935 1,977 2.2% 1.9%

L . . . . 1,700 1,710 1,713 1,725 1,739 1,744 1,753 0.5% 0.5%

Latvia H . . . . 253 263 278 292 308 323 338 4.7% 3.8%

B 233 236 243 244 249 255 261 268 275 281 288 2.4% 2.0%

L . . . . 245 247 247 249 251 251 252 0.5% 0.5%

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 544 568 598 622 648 671 696 4.7% 5.3%

B 438 449 480 505 535 551 563 576 589 599 610 2.7% 3.7%

L . . . . 526 534 533 535 538 538 539 0.9% 2.2%

Lithuania H . . . . 264 274 289 303 319 333 347 4.2% 3.4%

B 236 242 257 260 260 266 272 280 287 293 300 2.0% 1.7%

L . . . . 256 257 258 260 262 263 264 0.2% 0.2%

Malta H . . . . 106 111 122 133 144 156 170 7.5% 5.4%

B 97 109 102 102 104 107 112 119 125 131 138 4.3% 3.1%

L . . . . 102 103 105 108 111 113 116 1.8% 1.1%

Moldova H . . . . 44 49 53 56 60 64 68 5.8% .

B 64 74 56 45 43 47 49 51 53 55 57 3.3% .

L . . . . 42 45 46 47 48 48 49 1.2% .

Morocco H . . . . 375 397 430 463 500 537 580 7.0% .

B 324 334 359 361 368 382 400 417 436 454 474 4.0% .

L . . . . 362 369 374 381 388 393 400 1.5% .

Netherlands H . . . . 1,220 1,258 1,306 1,344 1,393 1,433 1,476 3.3% 3.4%

B 1,083 1,109 1,138 1,176 1,210 1,241 1,271 1,297 1,327 1,352 1,379 2.3% 2.7%

L . . . . 1,200 1,221 1,236 1,249 1,265 1,269 1,277 1.2% 1.9%

Norway H . . . . 610 620 631 640 674 690 704 2.2% 0.7%

B 587 610 619 603 603 599 604 610 618 622 627 0.6% -0.3%

L . . . . 598 588 583 580 580 575 571 -0.8% -1.3%

Poland H . . . . 731 767 823 874 928 978 1,031 5.7% 4.5%

B 684 692 702 699 719 742 769 796 824 848 875 3.3% 2.5%

L . . . . 708 719 723 736 746 751 759 1.2% 1.0%

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Romania H . . . . 666 697 740 781 830 875 925 5.5% 5.5%

B 487 513 598 635 655 677 699 724 751 775 802 3.4% 3.9%

L . . . . 645 657 666 677 691 700 711 1.6% 2.5%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . 146 152 158 165 172 177 184 4.4% 5.7%

B 118 121 125 136 144 148 152 156 161 164 168 3.1% 4.6%

L . . . . 142 145 147 149 151 152 154 1.8% 3.6%

Serbia&Montenegro H . . . . 624 648 685 720 759 794 833 4.7% .

B 535 518 554 605 612 627 645 665 688 707 727 2.7% .

L . . . . 601 606 611 620 630 636 644 0.9% .

Slovakia H . . . . 503 528 560 590 626 659 695 5.8% 6.2%

B 381 397 436 468 495 512 528 546 565 582 601 3.6% 4.6%

L . . . . 487 497 502 510 518 524 531 1.8% 3.2%

Slovenia H . . . . 360 375 395 413 433 451 470 4.4% 3.5%

B 346 329 348 347 354 364 373 384 395 404 415 2.6% 2.0%

L . . . . 348 353 354 358 363 366 369 0.9% 0.6%

Spain H . . . . 1,780 1,859 1,959 2,041 2,128 2,206 2,287 4.9% 5.2%

B 1,557 1,528 1,587 1,640 1,750 1,802 1,848 1,894 1,944 1,980 2,019 3.0% 3.6%

L . . . . 1,721 1,748 1,753 1,768 1,785 1,789 1,797 1.3% 2.2%

Sweden H . . . . 775 796 828 854 892 920 950 3.4% 2.9%

B 724 730 739 751 766 777 792 807 823 834 848 1.7% 1.8%

L . . . . 758 759 759 764 768 767 768 0.3% 0.7%

Switzerland H . . . . 1,087 1,120 1,167 1,208 1,252 1,286 1,320 3.4% 3.2%

B 1,045 1,019 1,033 1,046 1,072 1,092 1,114 1,137 1,160 1,177 1,198 2.0% 1.9%

L . . . . 1,058 1,064 1,067 1,073 1,080 1,080 1,084 0.5% 0.8%

Turkey H . . . . 1,416 1,496 1,601 1,712 1,834 1,954 2,087 6.4% .

B 1,066 1,142 1,269 1,356 1,391 1,453 1,520 1,591 1,665 1,735 1,811 4.2% .

L . . . . 1,369 1,409 1,448 1,489 1,531 1,565 1,604 2.4% .

Ukraine H . . . . 205 221 238 254 272 288 306 5.3% .

B 466 494 320 213 200 212 221 230 240 248 258 2.7% .

L . . . . 196 204 206 210 215 218 222 0.6% .

UK H . . . . 2,410 2,480 2,570 2,641 2,732 2,799 2,869 3.1% 3.1%

B 2,211 2,225 2,269 2,322 2,384 2,435 2,484 2,531 2,585 2,622 2,655 1.9% 2.2%

L . . . . 2,358 2,382 2,395 2,416 2,439 2,445 2,457 0.8% 1.3%

ESRA02 H . . . . 10,041 10,376 10,814 11,206 11,677 12,076 12,505 3.7% .

B 9,388 9,297 9,495 9,667 9,906 10,110 10,320 10,548 10,809 11,008 11,231 2.2% .

L . . . . 9,780 9,861 9,892 9,985 10,084 10,118 10,180 0.7% .

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

EU27 H . . . . 9,257 9,555 9,954 10,301 10,711 11,056 11,426 3.6% 3.2%

B 8,766 8,622 8,783 8,920 9,135 9,314 9,494 9,690 9,917 10,085 10,273 2.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 9,016 9,084 9,096 9,170 9,249 9,268 9,313 0.6% 0.9%

ECAC H . . . . 10,293 10,639 11,092 11,503 11,997 12,417 12,868 3.8% 3.3%

B 9,710 9,603 9,770 9,917 10,153 10,364 10,578 10,818 11,091 11,301 11,535 2.2% 2.1%

L . . . . 10,023 10,107 10,140 10,231 10,335 10,373 10,440 0.7% 0.9%

ESRA08 H . . . . 10,118 10,453 10,899 11,298 11,777 12,183 12,619 3.8% 3.3%

B 9,548 9,447 9,604 9,752 9,981 10,184 10,398 10,629 10,894 11,096 11,322 2.2% 2.0%

L . . . . 9,853 9,932 9,964 10,058 10,157 10,192 10,255 0.7% 0.9%

SES-SJU H . . . . 9,661 9,968 10,379 10,737 11,174 11,537 11,926 3.6% 3.2%

B 9,162 9,022 9,192 9,326 9,533 9,711 9,896 10,098 10,332 10,505 10,699 2.0% 1.9%

L . . . . 9,411 9,473 9,481 9,554 9,634 9,650 9,692 0.6% 0.8%

Baltic FAB H . . . . 820 862 924 979 1,040 1,094 1,152 5.5% 4.5%

B 768 776 788 790 807 833 864 893 923 950 979 3.1% 2.5%

L . . . . 795 807 812 827 837 843 851 1.1% 1.0%

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . 2,400 2,492 2,633 2,762 2,907 3,040 3,187 4.6% 3.9%

B 2,212 2,194 2,282 2,327 2,357 2,410 2,479 2,549 2,629 2,696 2,771 2.5% 2.2%

L . . . . 2,318 2,337 2,347 2,373 2,404 2,421 2,446 0.7% 0.8%

Danube FAB H . . . . 936 981 1,042 1,099 1,164 1,225 1,292 5.4% 5.8%

B 746 758 829 895 920 953 985 1,018 1,055 1,087 1,123 3.3% 4.2%

L . . . . 906 925 936 953 971 983 997 1.6% 2.8%

FAB CE H . . . . 2,079 2,163 2,281 2,385 2,504 2,611 2,727 4.5% 4.3%

B 1,865 1,854 1,928 2,001 2,047 2,101 2,157 2,215 2,281 2,335 2,396 2.6% 2.8%

L . . . . 2,015 2,041 2,051 2,078 2,105 2,119 2,138 1.0% 1.5%

FABEC H . . . . 5,880 6,058 6,286 6,475 6,700 6,878 7,067 3.2% 3.1%

B 5,564 5,499 5,571 5,667 5,807 5,916 6,017 6,131 6,265 6,361 6,469 1.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 5,736 5,778 5,785 5,837 5,886 5,895 5,921 0.6% 0.9%

NEFAB H . . . . 1,030 1,054 1,085 1,113 1,168 1,203 1,237 2.9% 1.6%

B 1,001 1,012 1,030 1,015 1,017 1,021 1,034 1,049 1,066 1,078 1,091 1.0% 0.4%

L . . . . 1,005 998 991 991 992 987 984 -0.4% -0.8%

South West FAB H . . . . 1,851 1,933 2,036 2,121 2,212 2,293 2,377 4.9% 5.2%

B 1,644 1,591 1,650 1,706 1,820 1,873 1,922 1,969 2,021 2,057 2,098 3.0% 3.6%

L . . . . 1,790 1,818 1,823 1,838 1,855 1,859 1,868 1.3% 2.2%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . 2,446 2,519 2,611 2,684 2,775 2,843 2,913 3.1% 3.1%

B 2,238 2,254 2,299 2,358 2,420 2,473 2,523 2,571 2,626 2,664 2,697 1.9% 2.3%

L . . . . 2,393 2,419 2,432 2,454 2,478 2,485 2,497 0.8% 1.3%

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 1,051 1,080 1,120 1,153 1,202 1,238 1,275 3.4% 2.8%

B 978 999 1,005 1,011 1,039 1,054 1,073 1,092 1,113 1,127 1,144 1.8% 1.7%

L . . . . 1,027 1,030 1,030 1,036 1,041 1,039 1,040 0.4% 0.6%

EU28 H . . . . 9,271 9,569 9,970 10,317 10,728 11,074 11,445 3.6% 3.2%

B 8,779 8,634 8,797 8,934 9,148 9,328 9,508 9,705 9,932 10,101 10,289 2.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 9,030 9,097 9,109 9,184 9,263 9,282 9,327 0.6% 0.9%

SES-RP2 H . . . . 9,577 9,877 10,278 10,625 11,049 11,398 11,770 3.5% 3.1%

B 9,087 8,946 9,114 9,243 9,451 9,625 9,804 10,000 10,227 10,394 10,580 1.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 9,330 9,390 9,396 9,466 9,542 9,556 9,595 0.5% 0.8%

Network Manager




Annex 4 Seven-year flight forecast per state (Growth)

This appendix shows the same data as the previous, but presented as growth rather than counts of flights.

Figure 57. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State.

IFR Movements (Growth)

IFR Movements (Growth) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Albania H . . . . -3.5% 5.9% 5.6% 4.9% 5.5% 4.6% 4.8% 3.9% .

B -1.1% 2.8% -1.1% 1.8% -5.7% 4.5% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 2.9% 3.0% 2.0% .

L . . . . -7.8% 3.2% 0.7% 1.4% 1.8% 1.2% 1.4% 0.2% .

Armenia H . . . . -4.5% 8.0% 7.8% 7.5% 8.1% 7.3% 7.5% 5.9% .

B -2.0% -6.6% -3.4% -17% -6.1% 6.4% 4.8% 5.2% 5.7% 5.1% 5.3% 3.7% .

L . . . . -7.7% 4.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% 1.6% .

Austria H . . . . 2.9% 3.5% 5.1% 4.1% 4.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.4%

B -1.8% -1.7% 3.4% 1.4% 1.3% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0%

L . . . . -0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

Azerbaijan H . . . . 6.3% 4.9% 7.7% 7.3% 8.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.0% .

B 5.4% -1.3% -1.2% -3.1% 4.9% 3.6% 5.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.0% .

L . . . . 3.6% 2.2% 2.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% .

Belarus H . . . . 4.3% 3.5% 5.5% 4.9% 5.1% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6% .

B 6.7% 6.2% 5.6% -2.2% 2.7% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% .

L . . . . 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% .

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . 4.4% 3.1% 4.2% 2.7% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4% 3.2% 3.4%

B -0.2% 1.0% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.5%

L . . . . 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.4%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . 4.2% 3.8% 5.8% 5.0% 5.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% .

B -2.6% -2.2% 14% 4.2% 2.3% 2.3% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% .

L . . . . 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% .

Bulgaria H . . . . 4.5% 4.4% 6.2% 5.5% 6.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.3% 6.5%

B 0.2% 1.9% 24% 12% 2.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 4.9%

L . . . . 1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 3.6%

Canary Islands H . . . . 8.1% 4.3% 5.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.6% 3.9% 4.7% 4.1%

B -7.7% -3.4% 6.9% -0.9% 6.4% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 2.6% 2.4%

L . . . . 4.7% 1.1% -0.3% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3% -0.0% 0.8% 1.0%

Croatia H . . . . 2.1% 3.6% 5.6% 4.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.3% 3.8%

B -0.4% -0.6% 5.5% 3.0% 0.1% 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2%

L . . . . -1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7%

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Cyprus H . . . . 0.7% 4.7% 7.8% 7.4% 7.7% 7.0% 7.3% 6.0% 5.0%

B -4.1% 2.8% 9.7% 4.8% -1.5% 3.0% 4.4% 4.7% 4.8% 4.2% 4.5% 3.4% 3.0%

L . . . . -3.5% 1.4% 1.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 2.3% 1.2% 1.3%

Czech Republic H . . . . 6.1% 4.4% 5.6% 4.4% 5.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.9% 5.4%

B -2.3% 0.0% 3.1% 6.5% 4.6% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.8%

L . . . . 3.1% 1.7% 0.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% 2.7%

Denmark H . . . . 4.3% 2.8% 3.7% 3.0% 4.1% 2.8% 2.8% 3.4% 3.0%

B -3.2% 2.3% 0.0% 1.3% 3.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 1.3% 1.4% 1.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% -0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8%

Estonia H . . . . 3.3% 3.4% 5.5% 4.9% 5.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.6% 3.6%

B 6.1% -3.1% 4.6% 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1%

L . . . . 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%

FYROM H . . . . 4.0% 4.4% 5.5% 5.1% 5.7% 5.0% 5.2% 5.0% .

B -9.6% 0.1% 30% 3.9% 1.8% 2.9% 2.7% 3.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.2% 2.9% .

L . . . . -0.2% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% .

Finland H . . . . 2.9% 2.1% 3.1% 2.8% 3.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.2%

B -5.8% -3.5% 2.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%

L . . . . 0.5% -0.4% -0.7% -0.1% 0.2% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%

France H . . . . 3.6% 3.3% 4.1% 3.1% 3.6% 2.5% 2.5% 3.2% 3.1%

B -1.5% -0.7% 1.6% 1.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 0.7% 0.7% -0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7%

Georgia H . . . . 1.2% 5.9% 8.6% 7.9% 8.3% 7.4% 7.6% 6.7% .

B -1.7% 2.1% 5.2% 5.5% -0.3% 4.4% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.0% 5.3% 4.4% .

L . . . . -1.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0% 3.2% 2.5% .

Germany H . . . . 3.9% 3.1% 3.9% 3.2% 3.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 3.1%

B -1.9% -0.9% 1.3% 1.7% 2.7% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 1.1%

Greece H . . . . 5.4% 3.4% 5.8% 5.4% 6.2% 5.5% 5.8% 5.4% 5.0%

B -3.5% -1.6% 8.8% 5.1% 3.3% 1.9% 3.0% 3.3% 4.0% 3.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.3%

L . . . . 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 1.6% 2.1% 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.8%

Hungary H . . . . 5.4% 4.7% 6.0% 5.3% 6.0% 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 6.5%

B -4.4% 1.9% 12% 11% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 4.9%

L . . . . 2.1% 1.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 3.5%

Iceland H . . . . 5.4% 4.4% 4.9% 4.6% 5.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% .

B 11% 6.8% 11% 11% 4.3% 3.4% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% .

L . . . . 3.2% 2.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% .

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Ireland H . . . . 5.1% 3.0% 4.5% 3.3% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 3.2% 4.2%

B -0.4% 0.3% 2.8% 5.4% 4.1% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.2% 2.4% 3.3%

L . . . . 3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% 2.4%

Italy H . . . . 3.4% 3.6% 5.3% 4.3% 4.6% 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 3.5%

B -2.3% -2.2% 1.9% 1.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9%

L . . . . 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%

Latvia H . . . . 3.5% 3.9% 5.7% 5.1% 5.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7% 3.8%

B -1.0% 1.3% 2.8% 0.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.0%

L . . . . 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 7.7% 4.5% 5.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.5% 3.8% 4.7% 5.3%

B -2.7% 2.6% 6.8% 5.1% 5.9% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 2.7% 3.7%

L . . . . 4.2% 1.5% -0.2% 0.4% 0.5% -0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 2.2%

Lithuania H . . . . 1.5% 3.7% 5.6% 4.9% 5.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.2% 3.4%

B 1.0% 2.8% 6.1% 1.2% -0.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 1.7%

L . . . . -1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%

Malta H . . . . 3.6% 5.0% 9.4% 8.7% 8.9% 8.3% 8.8% 7.5% 5.4%

B 20% 13% -6.8% 0.7% 1.3% 2.9% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 4.8% 5.1% 4.3% 3.1%

L . . . . -0.8% 1.1% 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.2% 2.5% 1.8% 1.1%

Moldova H . . . . -3.1% 11% 7.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.0% 6.2% 5.8% .

B 5.7% 16% -24% -19% -5.3% 9.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3% .

L . . . . -7.5% 7.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% .

Morocco H . . . . 3.9% 5.9% 8.5% 7.6% 7.9% 7.5% 8.0% 7.0% .

B -8.1% 3.3% 7.6% 0.3% 2.0% 3.9% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.1% 4.3% 4.0% .

L . . . . 0.3% 2.2% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% .

Netherlands H . . . . 3.7% 3.2% 3.8% 2.9% 3.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 3.4%

B -0.2% 2.4% 2.6% 3.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 2.7%

L . . . . 2.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% 1.2% 1.9%

Norway H . . . . 1.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 5.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2% 0.7%

B 4.2% 4.0% 1.4% -2.5% -0.0% -0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% -0.3%

L . . . . -0.9% -1.6% -0.9% -0.4% -0.1% -0.8% -0.7% -0.8% -1.3%

Poland H . . . . 4.5% 5.0% 7.3% 6.1% 6.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.7% 4.5%

B 4.6% 1.1% 1.4% -0.3% 2.8% 3.1% 3.7% 3.4% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 2.5%

L . . . . 1.2% 1.5% 0.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0%

Romania H . . . . 4.9% 4.7% 6.2% 5.6% 6.3% 5.5% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5%

B -0.0% 5.3% 17% 6.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% 3.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.9%

L . . . . 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 2.5%

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . 7.5% 3.9% 4.6% 4.0% 4.1% 3.4% 3.6% 4.4% 5.7%

B -3.9% 2.7% 2.7% 8.9% 6.2% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.2% 2.4% 3.1% 4.6%

L . . . . 5.0% 1.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.8% 3.6%

Serbia&Montenegro H . . . . 3.1% 3.8% 5.8% 5.0% 5.4% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% .

B -4.1% -3.1% 6.9% 9.3% 1.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% .

L . . . . -0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% .

Slovakia H . . . . 7.5% 4.9% 6.1% 5.4% 6.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.8% 6.2%

B -0.3% 4.4% 9.8% 7.2% 5.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.6% 4.6%

L . . . . 4.2% 2.0% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.8% 3.2%

Slovenia H . . . . 3.8% 4.1% 5.3% 4.5% 4.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.4% 3.5%

B -2.0% -4.8% 5.8% -0.3% 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0%

L . . . . 0.3% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6%

Spain H . . . . 8.5% 4.4% 5.4% 4.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.6% 4.9% 5.2%

B -6.5% -1.9% 3.9% 3.3% 6.7% 3.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 1.8% 2.0% 3.0% 3.6%

L . . . . 5.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 1.3% 2.2%

Sweden H . . . . 3.3% 2.7% 4.0% 3.2% 4.5% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 2.9%

B -0.1% 0.9% 1.2% 1.6% 2.1% 1.4% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8%

L . . . . 1.0% 0.2% -0.1% 0.7% 0.5% -0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7%

Switzerland H . . . . 3.9% 3.1% 4.2% 3.5% 3.7% 2.7% 2.7% 3.4% 3.2%

B -1.7% -2.4% 1.4% 1.2% 2.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9%

L . . . . 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8%

Turkey H . . . . 4.5% 5.6% 7.1% 6.9% 7.1% 6.5% 6.8% 6.4% .

B 2.6% 7.1% 11% 6.8% 2.6% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% .

L . . . . 1.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4% .

Ukraine H . . . . -3.7% 7.7% 7.9% 6.7% 6.8% 6.1% 6.3% 5.3% .

B 2.9% 6.0% -35% -33% -6.0% 5.8% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.6% 3.8% 2.7% .

L . . . . -8.1% 4.0% 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 0.6% .

UK H . . . . 3.8% 2.9% 3.7% 2.7% 3.4% 2.5% 2.5% 3.1% 3.1%

B -1.4% 0.6% 2.0% 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.9% 2.2%

L . . . . 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 1.3%

ESRA02 H . . . . 3.9% 3.3% 4.2% 3.6% 4.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.7% .

B -2.6% -1.0% 2.1% 1.8% 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% .

L . . . . 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% .

EU27 H . . . . 3.8% 3.2% 4.2% 3.5% 4.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 3.2%

B -3.0% -1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9%

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

ECAC H . . . . 3.8% 3.4% 4.3% 3.7% 4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3%

B -2.2% -1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%

L . . . . 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9%

ESRA08 H . . . . 3.8% 3.3% 4.3% 3.7% 4.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3%

B -2.4% -1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0%

L . . . . 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9%

SES-SJU H . . . . 3.6% 3.2% 4.1% 3.4% 4.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.2%

B -2.6% -1.5% 1.9% 1.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9%

L . . . . 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8%

Baltic FAB H . . . . 3.8% 5.1% 7.2% 6.0% 6.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.5% 4.5%

B 3.6% 1.0% 1.5% 0.3% 2.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 2.5%

L . . . . 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0%

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . 3.1% 3.9% 5.7% 4.9% 5.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.6% 3.9%

B -2.4% -0.8% 4.0% 2.0% 1.3% 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2%

L . . . . -0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8%

Danube FAB H . . . . 4.5% 4.9% 6.2% 5.5% 6.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.8%

B -1.5% 1.5% 9.5% 8.0% 2.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 4.2%

L . . . . 1.2% 2.1% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 2.8%

FAB CE H . . . . 3.9% 4.0% 5.5% 4.6% 5.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% 4.3%

B -2.6% -0.6% 4.0% 3.8% 2.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8%

L . . . . 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.5%

FABEC H . . . . 3.8% 3.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 3.2% 3.1%

B -1.9% -1.2% 1.3% 1.7% 2.5% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9%

NEFAB H . . . . 1.5% 2.3% 3.0% 2.6% 5.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 1.6%

B 1.3% 1.1% 1.8% -1.5% 0.2% 0.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4%

L . . . . -0.9% -0.8% -0.6% -0.0% 0.2% -0.5% -0.3% -0.4% -0.8%

South West FAB H . . . . 8.5% 4.4% 5.4% 4.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.7% 4.9% 5.2%

B -9.8% -3.3% 3.7% 3.4% 6.7% 2.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 1.8% 2.0% 3.0% 3.6%

L . . . . 4.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 1.3% 2.2%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . 3.8% 3.0% 3.7% 2.8% 3.4% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 3.1%

B -1.5% 0.7% 2.0% 2.5% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.9% 2.3%

L . . . . 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.3%

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 3.9% 2.8% 3.7% 3.0% 4.3% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 2.8%

B -3.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 2.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7%

L . . . . 1.6% 0.3% -0.1% 0.6% 0.5% -0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6%

Network Manager






AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

EU28 H . . . . 3.8% 3.2% 4.2% 3.5% 4.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 3.2%

B -3.0% -1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9%

SES-RP2 H . . . . 3.6% 3.1% 4.1% 3.4% 4.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 3.1%

B -2.7% -1.6% 1.9% 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8%

Network Manager




Annex 5 Two-year en-route service unit forecast per state

Figure 58. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2016-2017.

Charging Area 2015

Actual TSU

2016 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2016/2015 Forecast

Growth

2017 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2017/2016 Forecast

Growth

2016 States Forecast

TSU

2016 STATFOR/

States

EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,454,178 2,547,621 3.8% 2,617,389 2.7% 2,510,000 1.5%

ED Germany A 12,976,261 13,431,295 3.5% 13,689,17

2

1.9% 13,057,000 2.9%

LF France 18,867,771 19,345,480 2.5% 19,903,53

6

2.9% 19,177,000 0.9%

EG UK 10,153,905 10,476,362 3.2% 10,701,23

5

2.1% 10,435,000 0.4%

EH Netherlands 2,892,654 2,994,307 3.5% 3,077,473 2.8% 2,825,835 6.0%

EI Ireland 4,182,450 4,291,573 2.6% 4,364,560 1.7% 4,049,624 6.0%

LS Switzerland 1,454,786 1,518,131 4.4% 1,545,488 1.8% 1,470,066 3.3%

LP Lisbon FIR 3,150,186 3,314,673 5.2% 3,426,687 3.4% 3,104,536 6.8%

LO Austria 2,739,285 2,798,843 2.2% 2,877,324 2.8% 2,777,000 0.8%

LE Spain 8,997,417 9,575,125 6.4% 9,852,105 2.9% 8,936,000 7.2%

GC Canary Islands 1,402,349 1,495,176 6.6% 1,540,318 3.0% 1,528,000 -2.1%

AZ Santa Maria FIR 4,661,620 4,876,084 4.6% 5,049,330 3.6% 4,336,772 12.4%

LG Greece 4,898,818 5,048,426 3.1% 5,183,109 2.7% 4,318,281 16.9%

LT Turkey 14,181,607 14,460,661 2.0% 15,272,64

4

5.6% 15,002,648 -3.6%

LM Malta 823,344 861,107 4.6% 880,427 2.2% 621,000 38.7%

LI Italy 8,171,509 8,413,683 3.0% 8,554,827 1.7% 8,866,051 -5.1%

LC Cyprus 1,547,646 1,529,487 -1.2% 1,576,134 3.0% 1,425,773 7.3%

LH Hungary 2,695,133 2,798,069 3.8% 2,883,973 3.1% 2,364,165 18.4%

EN Norway 2,313,891 2,366,877 2.3% 2,396,264 1.2% 2,367,954 -0.0%

EK Denmark 1,583,445 1,617,789 2.2% 1,646,446 1.8% 1,571,000 3.0%

LJ Slovenia 466,264 484,547 3.9% 496,217 2.4% 499,637 -3.0%

LR Romania 4,570,684 4,686,276 2.5% 4,821,906 2.9% 4,117,019 13.8%

LK Czech Republic 2,531,815 2,630,535 3.9% 2,708,096 2.9% 2,637,000 -0.2%

ES Sweden 3,354,938 3,419,089 1.9% 3,477,574 1.7% 3,303,000 3.5%

LZ Slovakia 1,071,382 1,113,916 4.0% 1,142,495 2.6% 1,126,000 -1.1%

LD Croatia 1,790,210 1,787,179 -0.2% 1,819,382 1.8% 1,783,000 0.2%

LB Bulgaria 3,222,750 3,355,140 4.1% 3,464,638 3.3% 2,667,000 25.8%

LW FYROM 263,988 273,938 3.8% 282,260 3.0% 282,000 -2.9%

LU Moldova 73,816 67,442 -8.6% 77,699 15.2% 77,000 -12.4%

EF Finland 760,383 756,154 -0.6% 767,381 1.5% 812,000 -6.9%

LA Albania 484,426 454,266 -6.2% 471,200 3.7% 522,080 -13.0%

LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 870,175 894,929 2.8% 917,170 2.5% 917,937 -2.5%

UD Armenia 125,671 112,631 -10.4% 117,936 4.7% 135,000 -16.6%

LY Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR B 1,974,864 2,036,465 3.1% 2,089,659 2.6% 2,017,944 0.9%

EP Poland 3,880,013 3,996,085 3.0% 4,099,221 2.6% 4,544,000 -12.1%

EY Lithuania 492,283 497,659 1.1% 511,548 2.8% 508,601 -2.2%

EE Estonia 815,648 838,139 2.8% 861,498 2.8% 801,575 4.6%

EV Latvia C 801,836 802,817 0.1% 823,923 2.6% 824,000 -2.6%

UK Ukraine D 1,285,878 1,163,199 -9.5% 1,233,072 6.0% . .

UG Georgia 805,195 815,599 1.3% 845,185 3.6% 840,510 -3.0%

Charging Area

2016 STATFOR Forecast

TSU

2016/2015 Forecast

Growth

2017 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2017/2016 Forecast

Growth

2016 States

Forecast TSU

2016 STATFOR/

States

CRCO88 73,932,864 76,664,671 3.7% 78,644,617 2.6% 74,206,834 3.3%

ESRA02 128,254,487 132,334,985 3.2% 136,096,086 2.8% 128,047,360 3.3%

CRCO11 136,883,755 141,129,838 3.1% 145,126,744 2.8% 137,516,922 2.6%

CRCO14 137,688,950 141,945,437 3.1% 145,971,929 2.8% 138,357,432 2.6%

RP1 Region A 113,273,025 117,004,381 3.3% 119,890,961 2.5% 113,244,116 3.3%

RP2 Region A 115,063,235 118,791,560 3.2% 121,710,343 2.5% 115,027,116 3.3%

Total D 139,790,476 143,946,775 3.0% 148,066,499 2.9% 139,159,007 3.4%

(A) For Germany, hence for SES29 and RP2, series, includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. 69,922 service units concerned for 2015. Estimated number for the coming years is previously 75,000 per year.

(B) The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR (following the change in the naming convention, see Final minutes of the 103

rd session of the Enlarged Committee dated 19-20.11.2014).

(C) Latvia has only joined EUROCONTROL member states in 2011. Before that date, only yearly data was available for the TSU (D) Ukraine is not part of the CRCO but has asked STATFOR to produce an individual forecast for them as they did not have this capacity in 2012. In the

TOTAL column the 2016 states forecast and the percentage difference between, the 2016 States and STATFOR forecast does not account for Ukraine

Network Manager




Figure 59. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2016-2017.

Charging Area 2015

Actual TSU

2016 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2017 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2015 Actual

Exempted SU in %

2015 Actual Chargeable

SU in %

2016 Chargeable

SU Estimate

2017 Chargeable

SU Estimate

EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,454,178 2,547,621 2,617,389 0.8% 99.2% 2,527,100 2,596,300 ED Germany

A 12,976,261 13,431,295 13,689,172 1.0% 99.0% 13,296,000 13,551,300

LF France 18,867,771 19,345,480 19,903,536 1.0% 99.0% 19,155,800 19,708,400 EG UK 10,153,905 10,476,362 10,701,235 1.6% 98.4% 10,313,800 10,535,200 EH Netherlands 2,892,654 2,994,307 3,077,473 1.3% 98.7% 2,956,800 3,038,900 EI Ireland 4,182,450 4,291,573 4,364,560 1.3% 98.7% 4,235,900 4,308,000 LS Switzerland 1,454,786 1,518,131 1,545,488 0.3% 99.7% 1,513,700 1,540,900 LP Lisbon FIR 3,150,186 3,314,673 3,426,687 1.1% 98.9% 3,277,000 3,387,800 LO Austria 2,739,285 2,798,843 2,877,324 0.5% 99.5% 2,785,600 2,863,700 LE Spain 8,997,417 9,575,125 9,852,105 1.1% 98.9% 9,472,900 9,746,900 GC Canary Islands 1,402,349 1,495,176 1,540,318 0.9% 99.1% 1,482,300 1,527,000 AZ Santa Maria FIR 4,661,620 4,876,084 5,049,330 2.0% 98.0% 4,776,400 4,946,100 LG Greece 4,898,818 5,048,426 5,183,109 2.5% 97.5% 4,923,000 5,054,400 LT Turkey 14,181,607 14,460,661 15,272,644 0.7% 99.3% 14,365,000 15,171,600 LM Malta 823,344 861,107 880,427 3.6% 96.4% 829,800 848,400 LI Italy 8,171,509 8,413,683 8,554,827 1.9% 98.1% 8,255,800 8,394,300 LC Cyprus 1,547,646 1,529,487 1,576,134 1.7% 98.3% 1,504,100 1,550,000 LH Hungary 2,695,133 2,798,069 2,883,973 1.3% 98.7% 2,762,400 2,847,200 EN Norway 2,313,891 2,366,877 2,396,264 0.9% 99.1% 2,346,100 2,375,200 EK Denmark 1,583,445 1,617,789 1,646,446 0.7% 99.3% 1,606,700 1,635,200 LJ Slovenia 466,264 484,547 496,217 0.5% 99.5% 482,200 493,800 LR Romania 4,570,684 4,686,276 4,821,906 1.0% 99.0% 4,637,300 4,771,500 LK Czech Republic 2,531,815 2,630,535 2,708,096 1.9% 98.1% 2,581,200 2,657,300 ES Sweden 3,354,938 3,419,089 3,477,574 0.5% 99.5% 3,401,700 3,459,900 LZ Slovakia 1,071,382 1,113,916 1,142,495 1.5% 98.5% 1,097,600 1,125,800 LD Croatia 1,790,210 1,787,179 1,819,382 0.3% 99.7% 1,782,200 1,814,300 LB Bulgaria 3,222,750 3,355,140 3,464,638 1.1% 98.9% 3,318,200 3,426,500 LW FYROM 263,988 273,938 282,260 0.1% 99.9% 273,800 282,100 LU Moldova 73,816 67,442 77,699 0.1% 99.9% 67,400 77,600 EF Finland 760,383 756,154 767,381 0.5% 99.5% 752,400 763,600 LA Albania 484,426 454,266 471,200 0.7% 99.3% 451,100 467,900 LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 870,175 894,929 917,170 0.1% 99.9% 894,300 916,500 UD Armenia 125,671 112,631 117,936 0.1% 99.9% 112,500 117,800 LY Serbia-Montenegro-

KFOR B

1,974,864 2,036,465 2,089,659 0.1% 99.9% 2,034,600 2,087,700

EP Poland 3,880,013 3,996,085 4,099,221 0.6% 99.4% 3,970,400 4,072,900 EY Lithuania 492,283 497,659 511,548 0.8% 99.2% 493,500 507,300 EE Estonia 815,648 838,139 861,498 0.0% 100.0% 838,000 861,400 EV Latvia 801,836 802,817 823,923 0.8% 99.2% 796,400 817,300 UK Ukraine 1,285,878 1,163,199 1,233,072 0.5% 99.5% 1,157,400 1,227,000 UG Georgia 805,195 815,599 845,185 1.3% 98.7% 804,600 833,800

CRCO88 73,932,864 76,664,671 78,644,617 1.1% 98.9% 75,793,600 77,751,100 ESRA02 128,254,487 132,334,985 136,096,086 1.2% 98.8% 130,782,500 134,499,500 CRCO11 136,883,755 141,129,838 145,126,744 1.1% 98.9% 139,535,900 143,487,700 CRCO14 137,688,950 141,945,437 145,971,929 1.1% 98.9% 140,340,500 144,321,400 RP1 Region

A 113,273,025 117,004,381 119,890,961 1.2% 98.8% 115,614,300 118,466,500

RP2 Region A 115,063,235 118,791,560 121,710,343 1.2% 98.8% 117,397,000 120,281,500

Total 139,790,476 143,946,775 148,066,499 1.1% 98.9% 142,337,000 146,410,600

(A) For Germany, hence for RP1 and RP2, series, includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic, 69,922 service units concerned for 2015. Estimated number for the coming years is previously 75,000 per year.

(B) The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR (following the change in the naming convention, see Final minutes of the 103rd session of the Enlarged Committee dated 19-20.11.2014).

Network Manager




Annex 6 Seven-year en-route service units forecast per state

Figure 60. Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands) per State.

Total en-route Service Units (Thousands)

Total service units

(thousands) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2022/ 2015 Total

Growth

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Albania H . . . . 460 482 509 534 563 589 617 27% .

B 443 456 469 484 454 471 486 501 519 533 549 13% .

L . . . . 449 461 466 472 481 487 494 2% .

Armenia H . . . . 122 130 139 150 161 173 186 48% .

B 154 149 142 126 113 118 123 130 137 144 152 21% .

L . . . . 104 106 108 112 116 119 123 -2% .

Austria H . . . . 2,841 2,952 3,109 3,240 3,388 3,516 3,656 33% 4.1%

B 2,469 2,456 2,645 2,739 2,799 2,877 2,959 3,035 3,119 3,186 3,259 19% 2.8%

L . . . . 2,757 2,804 2,822 2,861 2,895 2,912 2,935 7% 1.6%

Belgium

/Luxembourg

H . . . . 2,578 2,674 2,797 2,885 2,991 3,073 3,160 29% 4.1%

B 2,232 2,277 2,362 2,454 2,548 2,617 2,689 2,756 2,830 2,884 2,942 20% 3.1%

L . . . . 2,517 2,559 2,581 2,614 2,651 2,670 2,695 10% 2.1%

Bosnia-

Herzegovina

H . . . . 914 947 1,003 1,053 1,109 1,160 1,215 40% .

B 680 654 783 870 895 917 945 974 1,007 1,034 1,064 22% .

L . . . . 877 888 896 907 922 930 941 8% .

Bulgaria H . . . . 3,404 3,554 3,766 3,965 4,197 4,411 4,645 44% 7.6%

B 2,020 2,058 2,744 3,223 3,355 3,465 3,581 3,701 3,832 3,947 4,073 26% 6.2%

L . . . . 3,307 3,374 3,424 3,485 3,549 3,594 3,648 13% 4.9%

Canary Islands H . . . . 1,525 1,596 1,675 1,742 1,813 1,878 1,951 39% 3.2%

B 1,599 1,516 1,492 1,402 1,495 1,540 1,574 1,606 1,639 1,664 1,692 21% 1.5%

L . . . . 1,466 1,487 1,484 1,488 1,492 1,488 1,488 6% -0.0%

Croatia H . . . . 1,824 1,889 1,992 2,086 2,192 2,287 2,390 34% 3.5%

B 1,679 1,695 1,760 1,790 1,787 1,819 1,870 1,924 1,985 2,035 2,090 17% 1.8%

L . . . . 1,750 1,751 1,762 1,783 1,809 1,825 1,845 3% 0.3%

Cyprus H . . . . 1,551 1,620 1,745 1,874 2,017 2,158 2,314 50% 5.2%

B 1,303 1,327 1,454 1,548 1,529 1,576 1,645 1,724 1,807 1,884 1,970 27% 3.5%

L . . . . 1,509 1,534 1,562 1,604 1,647 1,682 1,722 11% 2.0%

Czech Republic

H . . . . 2,672 2,786 2,937 3,062 3,209 3,343 3,487 38% 5.1%

B 2,305 2,374 2,393 2,532 2,631 2,708 2,778 2,847 2,929 2,998 3,074 21% 3.5%

L . . . . 2,589 2,631 2,643 2,690 2,724 2,742 2,766 9% 2.4%

Network Manager





Total service units

(thousands) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2022/ 2015 Total

Growth

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Denmark H . . . . 1,635 1,678 1,739 1,792 1,869 1,925 1,981 25% 3.2%

B 1,429 1,524 1,532 1,583 1,618 1,646 1,679 1,712 1,750 1,776 1,806 14% 2.2%

L . . . . 1,600 1,616 1,622 1,634 1,649 1,650 1,656 5% 1.3%

Estonia H . . . . 850 883 930 975 1,028 1,075 1,126 38% 4.3%

B 725 741 790 816 838 861 885 910 937 961 988 21% 2.9%

L . . . . 827 840 845 856 868 874 883 8% 1.6%

FYROM H . . . . 280 292 309 324 343 360 378 43% .

B 174 178 246 264 274 282 291 300 311 320 330 25% .

L . . . . 268 272 275 278 283 287 291 10% .

Finland H . . . . 768 785 810 836 868 895 924 22% 1.0%

B 790 770 796 760 756 767 778 792 808 820 833 10% -0.1%

L . . . . 744 750 749 753 758 759 761 0% -1.1%

France H . . . . 19,515 20,293 21,230 21,987 22,827 23,465 24,140 28% 3.5%

B 17,515 17,900 18,497 18,868 19,345 19,904 20,376 20,854 21,365 21,733 22,126 17% 2.4%

L . . . . 19,178 19,527 19,604 19,791 19,982 20,039 20,146 7% 1.4%

Georgia H . . . . 844 884 958 1,034 1,118 1,199 1,289 60% .

B 709 747 752 805 816 845 892 943 996 1,047 1,102 37% .

L . . . . 788 806 832 865 897 924 955 19% .

Germany16

H . . . . 13,555 13,940 14,519 15,006 15,587 16,059 16,566 28% 3.1%

B 12,513 12,570 12,881 12,976 13,431 13,689 13,964 14,246 14,584 14,836 15,123 17% 2.0%

L . . . . 13,309 13,435 13,491 13,633 13,777 13,825 13,913 7% 1.1%

Greece H . . . . 5,141 5,372 5,706 6,033 6,414 6,774 7,176 46% 5.5%

B 4,358 4,216 4,618 4,899 5,048 5,183 5,362 5,556 5,781 5,981 6,200 27% 3.8%

L . . . . 4,957 5,001 5,056 5,153 5,266 5,351 5,450 11% 2.2%

Hungary H . . . . 2,846 2,955 3,129 3,294 3,489 3,668 3,863 43% 6.5%

B 2,023 2,101 2,406 2,695 2,798 2,884 2,973 3,069 3,178 3,273 3,376 25% 5.0%

L . . . . 2,750 2,813 2,841 2,887 2,939 2,973 3,015 12% 3.7%

Ireland H . . . . 4,337 4,436 4,630 4,779 4,907 5,001 5,095 22% 4.0%

B 3,806 3,813 3,922 4,182 4,292 4,365 4,483 4,590 4,712 4,803 4,859 16% 3.2%

L . . . . 4,246 4,290 4,344 4,397 4,461 4,497 4,543 9% 2.3%

16

For Germany, hence for RP1 and RP2, series, includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. 69,922 service units were concerned for 2015. Estimated number for the coming years is 75,000 per year.

Network Manager





Total service units

(thousands) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2022/ 2015 Total

Growth

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Italy H . . . . 8,554 8,769 9,247 9,665 10,127 10,531 10,974 34% 3.1%

B 8,139 8,117 8,314 8,172 8,414 8,555 8,792 9,023 9,279 9,482 9,712 19% 1.7%

L . . . . 8,275 8,354 8,396 8,475 8,568 8,610 8,680 6% 0.4%

Latvia H . . . . 820 856 901 945 997 1,042 1,092 36% 4.3%

B 707 734 767 802 803 824 843 864 887 906 928 16% 2.4%

L . . . . 786 793 793 798 805 806 810 1% 0.8%

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 3,354 3,512 3,699 3,854 4,018 4,166 4,330 37% 5.0%

B 2,782 2,877 3,020 3,150 3,315 3,427 3,513 3,596 3,687 3,758 3,835 22% 3.6%

L . . . . 3,275 3,344 3,348 3,369 3,394 3,401 3,417 8% 2.2%

Lithuania H . . . . 508 532 562 589 619 645 674 37% 3.9%

B 430 451 487 492 498 512 524 539 553 564 577 17% 2.0%

L . . . . 487 491 492 497 502 503 505 3% 0.4%

Malta H . . . . 887 930 1,019 1,113 1,219 1,328 1,453 76% 8.9%

B 641 735 727 823 861 880 933 990 1,051 1,110 1,175 43% 6.4%

L . . . . 836 833 859 889 921 949 980 19% 4.1%

Moldova H . . . . 76 90 96 102 109 115 122 66% .

B 206 240 131 74 67 78 81 84 87 90 93 27% .

L . . . . 59 66 66 68 69 70 71 -4% .

Netherlands H . . . . 3,027 3,137 3,261 3,362 3,495 3,602 3,716 28% 4.0%

B 2,587 2,702 2,767 2,893 2,994 3,077 3,151 3,219 3,297 3,360 3,426 18% 3.1%

L . . . . 2,962 3,014 3,045 3,077 3,117 3,132 3,153 9% 2.1%

Norway H . . . . 2,408 2,480 2,551 2,622 2,763 2,854 2,945 27% 3.4%

B 1,846 2,051 2,221 2,314 2,367 2,396 2,435 2,480 2,535 2,574 2,619 13% 2.2%

L . . . . 2,327 2,326 2,325 2,332 2,349 2,350 2,356 2% 1.0%

Poland H . . . . 4,035 4,184 4,455 4,693 4,959 5,195 5,448 40% 3.6%

B 3,854 3,984 3,931 3,880 3,996 4,099 4,237 4,366 4,504 4,621 4,752 22% 2.1%

L . . . . 3,958 4,018 4,042 4,113 4,164 4,191 4,230 9% 0.9%

Romania H . . . . 4,785 4,998 5,282 5,566 5,907 6,223 6,567 44% 5.9%

B 3,575 3,752 4,182 4,571 4,686 4,822 4,968 5,136 5,323 5,490 5,674 24% 4.2%

L . . . . 4,588 4,646 4,698 4,779 4,871 4,937 5,015 10% 2.7%

Santa Maria FIR

H . . . . 4,955 5,160 5,391 5,626 5,870 6,085 6,319 36% 6.2%

B 3,874 4,021 4,166 4,662 4,876 5,049 5,190 5,348 5,507 5,646 5,793 24% 5.1%

L . . . . 4,797 4,939 5,005 5,093 5,178 5,238 5,309 14% 4.1%

Network Manager





Total service units

(thousands) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2022/ 2015 Total

Growth

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR

17

H . . . . 2,076 2,161 2,278 2,384 2,508 2,618 2,740 39% .

B 1,719 1,639 1,752 1,975 2,036 2,090 2,149 2,210 2,282 2,341 2,407 22% .

L . . . . 1,998 2,019 2,035 2,062 2,094 2,114 2,139 8% .

Slovakia H . . . . 1,134 1,178 1,238 1,300 1,376 1,447 1,525 42% 4.5%

B 922 985 1,044 1,071 1,114 1,142 1,169 1,203 1,244 1,280 1,320 23% 2.9%

L . . . . 1,094 1,107 1,110 1,124 1,142 1,154 1,169 9% 1.5%

Slovenia H . . . . 492 510 537 561 588 612 637 37% 4.1%

B 425 411 459 466 485 496 510 524 540 553 567 22% 2.7%

L . . . . 478 483 487 492 499 503 508 9% 1.4%

Spain H . . . . 9,656 10,031 10,582 11,029 11,514 11,942 12,392 38% 4.7%

B 8,444 8,447 8,768 8,997 9,575 9,852 10,121 10,376 10,659 10,865 11,090 23% 3.4%

L . . . . 9,496 9,682 9,723 9,808 9,909 9,938 9,994 11% 2.3%

Sweden H . . . . 3,463 3,565 3,717 3,848 4,039 4,181 4,329 29% 3.2%

B 3,126 3,209 3,285 3,355 3,419 3,478 3,558 3,634 3,719 3,783 3,856 15% 2.0%

L . . . . 3,376 3,393 3,402 3,439 3,468 3,474 3,488 4% 0.9%

Switzerland H . . . . 1,538 1,581 1,646 1,704 1,768 1,816 1,866 28% 3.6%

B 1,399 1,385 1,427 1,455 1,518 1,545 1,575 1,608 1,644 1,671 1,702 17% 2.4%

L . . . . 1,498 1,511 1,513 1,522 1,534 1,537 1,545 6% 1.3%

Turkey H . . . . 14,668 15,679 16,903 18,203 19,639 21,055 22,614 59% .

B 9,813 10,637 12,809 14,182 14,461 15,273 16,087 16,972 17,888 18,762 19,710 39% .

L . . . . 14,262 14,862 15,373 15,934 16,499 16,993 17,531 24% .

UK H . . . . 10,603 10,911 11,339 11,679 12,067 12,357 12,659 25% 3.2%

B 9,608 9,755 9,979 10,154 10,476 10,701 10,946 11,175 11,433 11,617 11,777 16% 2.3%

L . . . . 10,351 10,480 10,565 10,673 10,793 10,837 10,904 7% 1.4%

Ukraine H . . . . 1,242 1,351 1,453 1,548 1,652 1,752 1,862 45% .

B 4,588 4,931 2,771 1,286 1,163 1,233 1,284 1,336 1,389 1,438 1,492 16% .

L . . . . 1,084 1,117 1,133 1,155 1,177 1,194 1,214 -6% .

ESRA02 H . . . . 134,073 139,353 146,601 153,142 160,610 167,126 174,175 36% .

B 113,602 116,097 123,048 128,254 132,335 136,096 140,030 144,079 148,522 152,180 156,102 22% .

L . . . . 130,624 132,883 134,176 136,125 138,191 139,416 140,996 10% .

17

The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR (following the change in the naming convention, see Final minutes of the 103rd session of the Enlarged Committee dated 19-20.11.2014).

Network Manager





Total service units

(thousands) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2022/ 2015 Total

Growth

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

BLUE MED FAB

H . . . . 16,132 16,692 17,717 18,685 19,776 20,791 21,917 42% 4.3%

B 14,441 14,395 15,113 15,441 15,853 16,194 16,733 17,293 17,918 18,457 19,057 23% 2.7%

L . . . . 15,578 15,722 15,873 16,121 16,402 16,592 16,832 9% 1.3%

Baltic FAB H . . . . 4,544 4,716 5,016 5,282 5,577 5,840 6,122 40% 3.6%

B 4,284 4,434 4,418 4,372 4,494 4,611 4,761 4,905 5,057 5,185 5,329 22% 2.1%

L . . . . 4,445 4,509 4,535 4,611 4,666 4,694 4,735 8% 0.9%

Danube FAB H . . . . 8,190 8,552 9,048 9,531 10,104 10,634 11,212 44% 6.6%

B 5,595 5,810 6,925 7,793 8,041 8,287 8,548 8,837 9,155 9,437 9,747 25% 5.0%

L . . . . 7,895 8,020 8,122 8,264 8,420 8,531 8,663 11% 3.6%

FAB CE H . . . . 12,723 13,217 13,945 14,596 15,352 16,033 16,773 38% 4.9%

B 10,503 10,676 11,492 12,164 12,508 12,845 13,204 13,577 14,002 14,359 14,751 21% 3.4%

L . . . . 12,295 12,477 12,561 12,744 12,929 13,038 13,179 8% 2.1%

FABEC H . . . . 40,213 41,625 43,453 44,944 46,667 48,015 49,448 28% 3.4%

B 36,246 36,834 37,934 38,646 39,837 40,833 41,754 42,682 43,720 44,485 45,318 17% 2.4%

L . . . . 39,465 40,047 40,235 40,637 41,061 41,203 41,453 7% 1.4%

NEFAB H . . . . 4,845 5,004 5,192 5,378 5,657 5,866 6,086 30% 3.3%

B 4,068 4,296 4,573 4,692 4,764 4,849 4,942 5,047 5,167 5,261 5,367 14% 2.0%

L . . . . 4,685 4,708 4,712 4,740 4,779 4,789 4,810 3% 0.7%

South West FAB

H . . . . 14,535 15,139 15,956 16,626 17,345 17,987 18,673 38% 4.6%

B 12,825 12,840 13,279 13,550 14,385 14,819 15,208 15,578 15,985 16,286 16,617 23% 3.2%

L . . . . 14,237 14,513 14,555 14,666 14,795 14,828 14,899 10% 2.0%

UK-Ireland FAB

H . . . . 14,940 15,346 15,969 16,458 16,974 17,357 17,754 24% 3.4%

B 13,414 13,568 13,902 14,336 14,768 15,066 15,429 15,765 16,145 16,420 16,636 16% 2.5%

L . . . . 14,597 14,770 14,909 15,070 15,254 15,334 15,447 8% 1.6%

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 5,098 5,243 5,456 5,641 5,908 6,106 6,310 28% 3.2%

B 4,555 4,732 4,817 4,938 5,037 5,124 5,236 5,346 5,469 5,560 5,662 15% 2.1%

L . . . . 4,977 5,009 5,024 5,072 5,117 5,124 5,144 4% 1.0%

CRCO88 H . . . . 77,485 80,222 83,878 86,895 90,246 92,961 95,851 30% 3.9%

B 68,828 69,718 71,927 73,933 76,665 78,645 80,541 82,408 84,476 86,022 87,624 19% 2.8%

L . . . . 75,853 77,072 77,526 78,327 79,182 79,514 80,043 8% 1.7%

CRCO11 H . . . . 143,007 148,645 156,448 163,490 171,525 178,548 186,147 36% 4.5%

B 121,589 124,162 131,379 136,884 141,130 145,127 149,337 153,663 158,410 162,325 166,531 22% 3.2%

L . . . . 139,281 141,659 143,007 145,087 147,274 148,568 150,239 10% 2.0%

CRCO14 H . . . . 143,850 149,529 157,405 164,524 172,643 179,748 187,436 36% 4.5%

B 122,298 124,910 132,130 137,689 141,945 145,972 150,229 154,606 159,406 163,372 167,633 22% 3.2%

Network Manager





Total service units

(thousands) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2022/ 2015 Total

Growth

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

L . . . . 140,069 142,465 143,840 145,952 148,170 149,492 151,194 10% 2.0%

RP1Region 16

H . . . . 118,482 122,698 128,758 134,003 140,059 145,181 150,690 33% 4.0%

B 103,572 105,235 109,910 113,273 117,004 119,891 123,000 126,131 129,625 132,379 135,330 19% 2.8%

L . . . . 115,544 117,135 117,867 119,235 120,691 121,378 122,376 8% 1.6%

RP2Region 16

H . . . . 120,307 124,587 130,750 136,089 142,252 147,468 153,080 33% 4.0%

B 105,251 106,930 111,670 115,063 118,792 121,710 124,870 128,055 131,610 134,414 137,421 19% 2.8%

L . . . . 117,295 118,886 119,630 121,018 122,500 123,203 124,221 8% 1.6%

Total H . . . . 145,942 151,764 159,788 167,047 175,323 182,575 190,424 36% 4.2%

B 127,611 130,582 135,692 139,790 143,947 148,066 152,398 156,852 161,733 165,770 170,112 22% 2.9%

L . . . . 141,980 144,423 145,818 147,963 150,215 151,560 153,291 10% 1.7%

Network Manager




Annex 7 Seven-year en-route service units forecast per state (Growth)

Figure 61. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State.

Growth in Total En Route Service Units

Annual growth

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Albania H . . . . -5.1% 4.7% 5.7% 4.8% 5.5% 4.6% 4.8% 3.5% .

B -1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.3% -6.2% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1% 3.5% 2.9% 3.0% 1.8% .

L . . . . -7.3% 2.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 0.3% .

Armenia H . . . . -3.2% 6.9% 6.6% 7.8% 7.8% 7.3% 7.4% 5.8% .

B -9.5% -2.9% -4.5% -11.8% -10.4% 4.7% 4.1% 5.7% 5.6% 5.2% 5.3% 2.7% .

L . . . . -17.6% 2.3% 1.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% -0.3% .

Austria H . . . . 3.7% 3.9% 5.3% 4.2% 4.6% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1%

B -2.0% -0.5% 7.7% 3.5% 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.6%

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . 5.1% 3.7% 4.6% 3.1% 3.7% 2.7% 2.8% 3.7% 4.1%

B 0.9% 2.0% 3.7% 3.9% 3.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.6% 3.1%

L . . . . 2.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 2.1%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . 5.0% 3.7% 5.9% 5.0% 5.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% .

B -5.1% -3.8% 19.7% 11.2% 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% .

L . . . . 0.7% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% .

Bulgaria H . . . . 5.6% 4.4% 6.0% 5.3% 5.8% 5.1% 5.3% 5.4% 7.6%

B 0.1% 1.9% 33.3% 17.5% 4.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 6.2%

L . . . . 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 4.9%

Canary Islands H . . . . 8.7% 4.6% 5.0% 4.0% 4.1% 3.6% 3.9% 4.8% 3.2%

B -4.0% -5.2% -1.6% -6.0% 6.6% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 2.7% 1.5%

L . . . . 4.5% 1.4% -0.2% 0.3% 0.2% -0.3% -0.0% 0.8% -0.0%

Croatia H . . . . 1.9% 3.5% 5.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.2% 3.5%

B 2.7% 0.9% 3.9% 1.7% -0.2% 1.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.8%

L . . . . -2.2% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3%

Cyprus H . . . . 0.2% 4.5% 7.7% 7.4% 7.6% 7.0% 7.3% 5.9% 5.2%

B -3.3% 1.8% 9.6% 6.4% -1.2% 3.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.8% 4.3% 4.5% 3.5% 3.5%

L . . . . -2.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.1% 2.4% 1.5% 2.0%

Czech Republic H . . . . 5.5% 4.2% 5.4% 4.3% 4.8% 4.2% 4.3% 4.7% 5.1%

B -0.0% 3.0% 0.8% 5.8% 3.9% 2.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 3.5%

L . . . . 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 2.4%

Network Manager





Annual growth

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Denmark H . . . . 3.3% 2.6% 3.7% 3.1% 4.3% 3.0% 2.9% 3.3% 3.2%

B -2.8% 6.6% 0.5% 3.4% 2.2% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2%

L . . . . 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.3%

Estonia H . . . . 4.2% 4.0% 5.3% 4.8% 5.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.3%

B 2.9% 2.3% 6.6% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%

L . . . . 1.4% 1.6% 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 1.6%

FYROM H . . . . 5.9% 4.6% 5.7% 5.0% 5.7% 4.9% 5.2% 5.3% .

B -10.2% 1.9% 38.8% 7.1% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.7% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% .

L . . . . 1.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% .

Finland H . . . . 1.0% 2.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8% 1.0%

B -5.1% -2.5% 3.3% -4.4% -0.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% -0.1%

L . . . . -2.1% 0.8% -0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% -1.1%

France H . . . . 3.4% 4.0% 4.6% 3.6% 3.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.6% 3.5%

B -1.0% 2.2% 3.3% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.4%

L . . . . 1.6% 1.8% 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4%

Georgia H . . . . 4.8% 4.8% 8.3% 7.9% 8.1% 7.3% 7.5% 7.0% .

B -2.5% 5.4% 0.6% 7.1% 1.3% 3.6% 5.5% 5.7% 5.6% 5.1% 5.3% 4.6% .

L . . . . -2.2% 2.3% 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 3.1% 3.3% 2.5% .

Germany16

H . . . . 4.5% 2.8% 4.2% 3.4% 3.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.6% 3.1%

B -1.8% 0.5% 2.5% 0.7% 3.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.0%

L . . . . 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1%

Greece H . . . . 4.9% 4.5% 6.2% 5.7% 6.3% 5.6% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5%

B -4.2% -3.3% 9.5% 6.1% 3.1% 2.7% 3.4% 3.6% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.4% 3.8%

L . . . . 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 2.2%

Hungary H . . . . 5.6% 3.8% 5.9% 5.3% 5.9% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3% 6.5%

B -2.1% 3.8% 14.5% 12.0% 3.8% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 5.0%

L . . . . 2.0% 2.3% 1.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 3.7%

Ireland H . . . . 3.7% 2.3% 4.4% 3.2% 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 4.0%

B 0.9% 0.2% 2.9% 6.6% 2.6% 1.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 1.9% 1.2% 2.2% 3.2%

L . . . . 1.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 2.3%

Italy H . . . . 4.7% 2.5% 5.4% 4.5% 4.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% 3.1%

B -2.8% -0.3% 2.4% -1.7% 3.0% 1.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 1.7%

L . . . . 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.4%

Network Manager





Annual growth

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Latvia H . . . . 2.2% 4.4% 5.3% 4.9% 5.4% 4.6% 4.7% 4.5% 4.3%

B 0.7% 3.8% 4.5% 4.6% 0.1% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4%

L . . . . -1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 6.5% 4.7% 5.3% 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 3.9% 4.7% 5.0%

B -1.4% 3.4% 5.0% 4.3% 5.2% 3.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.8% 3.6%

L . . . . 4.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 1.2% 2.2%

Lithuania H . . . . 3.3% 4.7% 5.5% 4.9% 5.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 3.9%

B 2.3% 4.9% 8.1% 1.0% 1.1% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0%

L . . . . -1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

Malta H . . . . 7.7% 4.9% 9.5% 9.2% 9.5% 8.9% 9.5% 8.5% 8.9%

B 26.8% 14.7% -1.1% 13.2% 4.6% 2.2% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.9% 5.2% 6.4%

L . . . . 1.5% -0.3% 3.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 2.5% 4.1%

Moldova H . . . . 2.7% 18.6% 7.1% 6.4% 6.4% 5.8% 6.1% 7.5% .

B 5.7% 16.8% -45.5% -43.7% -8.6% 15.2% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% .

L . . . . -20.0% 11.1% 1.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% -0.5% .

Netherlands H . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 4.0% 3.1% 4.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.6% 4.0%

B -0.3% 4.4% 2.4% 4.5% 3.5% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4% 3.1%

L . . . . 2.4% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.2% 2.1%

Norway H . . . . 4.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 5.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4%

B 7.8% 11.1% 8.3% 4.2% 2.3% 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2%

L . . . . 0.6% -0.1% -0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%

Poland H . . . . 4.0% 3.7% 6.5% 5.4% 5.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 3.6%

B 4.8% 3.4% -1.3% -1.3% 3.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.1%

L . . . . 2.0% 1.5% 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9%

Romania H . . . . 4.7% 4.4% 5.7% 5.4% 6.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.3% 5.9%

B 1.2% 4.9% 11.5% 9.3% 2.5% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1% 4.2%

L . . . . 0.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 2.7%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . 6.3% 4.1% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 3.8% 4.4% 6.2%

B -2.7% 3.8% 3.6% 11.9% 4.6% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 5.1%

L . . . . 2.9% 3.0% 1.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 4.1%

Serbia-Montenegro-

KFOR 17

H . . . . 5.1% 4.1% 5.4% 4.7% 5.2% 4.4% 4.7% 4.8% .

B -6.1% -4.7% 6.9% 12.7% 3.1% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% .

L . . . . 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% .

Network Manager





Annual growth

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Slovakia H . . . . 5.9% 3.9% 5.1% 5.0% 5.8% 5.2% 5.4% 5.2% 4.5%

B 2.4% 6.9% 6.0% 2.6% 4.0% 2.6% 2.3% 3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9%

L . . . . 2.1% 1.2% 0.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5%

Slovenia H . . . . 5.4% 3.7% 5.4% 4.4% 4.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.6% 4.1%

B 0.1% -3.3% 11.7% 1.5% 3.9% 2.4% 2.9% 2.7% 3.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7%

L . . . . 2.4% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4%

Spain H . . . . 7.3% 3.9% 5.5% 4.2% 4.4% 3.7% 3.8% 4.7% 4.7%

B -7.2% 0.0% 3.8% 2.6% 6.4% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 1.9% 2.1% 3.0% 3.4%

L . . . . 5.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 1.5% 2.3%

Sweden H . . . . 3.2% 3.0% 4.3% 3.5% 4.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.2%

B -1.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9%

Switzerland H . . . . 5.7% 2.8% 4.1% 3.6% 3.7% 2.7% 2.8% 3.6% 3.6%

B -2.3% -1.0% 3.0% 1.9% 4.4% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 1.6% 1.8% 2.3% 2.4%

L . . . . 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.3%

Turkey H . . . . 3.4% 6.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.9% 7.2% 7.4% 6.9% .

B 2.0% 8.4% 20.4% 10.7% 2.0% 5.6% 5.3% 5.5% 5.4% 4.9% 5.0% 4.8% .

L . . . . 0.6% 4.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% .

UK H . . . . 4.4% 2.9% 3.9% 3.0% 3.3% 2.4% 2.4% 3.2% 3.2%

B -2.6% 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 3.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.6% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3%

L . . . . 1.9% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.4%

Ukraine H . . . . -3.4% 8.7% 7.6% 6.6% 6.7% 6.1% 6.2% 5.4% .

B 2.8% 7.5% -43.8% -53.6% -9.5% 6.0% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.7% 2.1% .

L . . . . -15.7% 3.0% 1.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% -0.8% .

ESRA02 H . . . . 4.5% 3.9% 5.2% 4.5% 4.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.5% .

B -1.4% 2.2% 6.0% 4.2% 3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% .

L . . . . 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% .

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . 4.5% 3.5% 6.1% 5.5% 5.8% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% 4.3%

B -2.2% -0.3% 5.0% 2.2% 2.7% 2.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1% 2.7%

L . . . . 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3%

Baltic FAB H . . . . 3.9% 3.8% 6.4% 5.3% 5.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 3.6%

B 4.6% 3.5% -0.4% -1.0% 2.8% 2.6% 3.3% 3.0% 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.1%

L . . . . 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 0.9%

Network Manager





Annual growth

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Danube FAB H . . . . 5.1% 4.4% 5.8% 5.3% 6.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.3% 6.6%

B 0.8% 3.8% 19.2% 12.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 5.0%

L . . . . 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 3.6%

FAB CE H . . . . 4.6% 3.9% 5.5% 4.7% 5.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9%

B -0.6% 1.6% 7.6% 5.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 3.4%

L . . . . 1.1% 1.5% 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% 2.1%

FABEC H . . . . 4.1% 3.5% 4.4% 3.4% 3.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.6% 3.4%

B -1.2% 1.6% 3.0% 1.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.4%

L . . . . 2.1% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.4%

NEFAB H . . . . 3.3% 3.3% 3.8% 3.6% 5.2% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 3.3%

B 2.9% 5.6% 6.5% 2.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%

L . . . . -0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%

South West FAB H . . . . 7.3% 4.2% 5.4% 4.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.8% 4.7% 4.6%

B -5.6% 0.1% 3.4% 2.0% 6.2% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 1.9% 2.0% 3.0% 3.2%

L . . . . 5.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 1.4% 2.0%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . 4.2% 2.7% 4.1% 3.1% 3.1% 2.3% 2.3% 3.1% 3.4%

B -1.6% 1.1% 2.5% 3.1% 3.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 2.1% 2.5%

L . . . . 1.8% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 1.6%

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 3.2% 2.8% 4.1% 3.4% 4.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.2%

B -2.1% 3.9% 1.8% 2.5% 2.0% 1.7% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1%

L . . . . 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0%

CRCO88 H . . . . 4.8% 3.5% 4.6% 3.6% 3.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.8% 3.9%

B -2.2% 1.3% 3.2% 2.8% 3.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 2.6% 1.6% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 1.7%

CRCO11 H . . . . 4.5% 3.9% 5.2% 4.5% 4.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5%

B -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.2%

L . . . . 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 2.0%

CRCO14 H . . . . 4.5% 3.9% 5.3% 4.5% 4.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5%

B -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 3.2%

L . . . . 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 2.0%

RP1Region 16

H . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 4.9% 4.1% 4.5% 3.7% 3.8% 4.2% 4.0%

B -1.5% 1.6% 4.4% 3.1% 3.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8%

L . . . . 2.0% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.6%

Network Manager





Annual growth

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AAGR 2022/ 2015

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

RP2Region 16

H . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 4.9% 4.1% 4.5% 3.7% 3.8% 4.2% 4.0%

B -1.4% 1.6% 4.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8%

L . . . . 1.9% 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.6%

Total H . . . . 4.4% 4.0% 5.3% 4.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.2%

B -1.2% 2.3% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9%

L . . . . 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.7%

Network Manager




Annex 8 Terminal Navigation service units forecast per state

This appendix presents the forecast of the terminal navigation service units based on the terminal charging zones definition for RP2 and the use of a 0.7 exponent in the terminal service unit definition (to be used as of 2015). The definition of the charging zones is in line with their latest definitions available as agreed in their performance plans for RP2 (Summer 2015).

The historical values up to 2015 have been reconstructed based on CRCO data with the TCZ definitions and the exponent used to compute the TNSU as applicable by states according to their RP1 performance plans up to 2014 and to the definition of RP2 from 2015 with a 0.7 exponent. For this forecast, the TCZ definitions available in January 2016 were used (see Figure 52).

Figure 62. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands) per Terminal Charging Zone.

Terminal Navigation Service Units (Thousands) AAGR 2022/ 2015 Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Austria LO_TCZ High . . . . 183.2 189.9 200.8 209.5 220.4 230.2 240.3 4.2%

Base 179.1 175.5 178.4 180.7 181.0 185.2 190.7 196.5 202.4 207.1 212.2 2.3%

Low . . . . 178.5 180.3 181.5 184.4 187.3 189.1 191.1 0.8%

Belgium EB_TCZ_EBAW High . . . . 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 6.0%

Base 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.8%

Low . . . . 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.8%

EB_TCZ_EBBR High . . . . 164.6 171.5 179.2 181.3 183.4 185.4 187.5 2.8%

Base 150.8 142.3 146.6 154.6 161.9 166.5 170.9 176.0 182.4 185.4 187.5 2.8%

Low . . . . 159.9 162.4 163.7 165.3 167.8 169.4 171.2 1.5%

EB_TCZ_EBCI High . . . . 31.4 33.2 35.4 37.6 40.1 42.4 45.1 6.4%

Base 27.9 30.2 28.1 29.1 31.0 32.2 33.5 34.8 36.2 37.5 38.9 4.2%

Low . . . . 30.6 31.3 31.8 32.4 33.2 33.6 34.3 2.3%

EB_TCZ_EBLG High . . . . 29.3 31.1 33.5 35.8 38.1 40.3 43.0 6.6%

Base 23.5 22.9 24.7 27.6 29.0 30.3 31.8 33.6 35.5 37.1 38.8 5.0%

Low . . . . 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.5 32.7 33.9 35.4 3.6%

EB_TCZ_EBOS High . . . . 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.6 10.6%

Base 3.4 3.2 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 5.1%

Low . . . . 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5%

Bulgaria LB_TCZ High . . . . 26.6 28.2 31.1 33.5 36.2 38.6 41.2 8.0%

Base 41.5 41.7 44.2 24.1 26.1 27.1 28.6 30.3 31.9 33.2 34.6 5.3%

Low . . . . 25.5 26.2 26.7 27.5 28.4 29.0 30.2 3.3%

Croatia LD_TCZ High . . . . 17.8 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.7 23.2 24.4 5.0%

Base 16.0 15.8 16.3 17.4 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.1 20.7 2.5%

Low . . . . 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 0.8%

Network Manager





Cyprus LC_TCZ High . . . . 43.3 46.1 50.1 54.0 59.2 64.3 70.8 8.3%

Base 42.5 39.0 40.0 40.4 42.3 43.9 46.0 48.3 50.7 52.6 55.6 4.7%

Low . . . . 41.3 42.0 42.4 43.3 44.2 44.9 45.9 1.8%

Czech Republic LK_TCZ High . . . . 82.3 88.9 96.1 102.8 111.9 119.3 129.1 8.0%

Base 75.3 73.7 72.9 75.5 80.8 84.6 89.5 93.1 97.8 101.6 106.1 5.0%

Low . . . . 79.4 81.7 82.8 84.7 87.6 88.7 90.7 2.7%

Denmark EK_TCZ High . . . . 169.3 175.5 184.9 193.2 202.6 210.6 218.6 4.7%

Base 143.7 148.1 154.5 158.2 167.5 170.1 176.4 180.2 185.5 189.7 194.1 3.0%

Low . . . . 165.4 166.2 167.4 169.9 171.4 172.1 173.2 1.3%

Estonia EE_TCZ High . . . . 16.3 17.4 19.0 20.4 23.9 26.3 28.7 8.7%

Base 18.9 14.6 15.1 15.9 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.7 23.3 5.6%

Low . . . . 15.6 15.8 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 1.9%

Finland EF_TCZ High . . . . 106.2 110.0 115.4 122.4 130.5 138.1 145.3 5.4%

Base 97.6 97.9 99.4 100.5 104.8 107.3 110.1 112.9 116.7 119.8 125.0 3.2%

Low . . . . 103.5 104.6 104.7 106.4 108.2 109.3 111.0 1.4%

France LF_TCZ High . . . . 1072.2 1104.2 1149.0 1187.1 1238.1 1265.7 1293.0 3.0%

Base 1092.7 1090.7 1031.1 1048.9 1058.8 1071.5 1087.1 1120.5 1152.9 1182.4 1213.6 2.1%

Low . . . . 1044.6 1044.4 1041.6 1055.0 1071.6 1080.7 1092.4 0.6%

Germany ED_TCZ High . . . . 1403.9 1446.7 1516.2 1574.9 1638.9 1700.6 1763.0 4.0%

Base 1295.5 1282.3 1311.6 1338.8 1388.9 1417.2 1446.9 1481.1 1525.3 1562.8 1609.7 2.7%

Low . . . . 1373.6 1384.8 1392.2 1435.4 1460.6 1478.7 1501.3 1.7%

Greece LG_TCZ High . . . . 109.5 114.0 121.1 129.5 141.4 151.8 163.9 7.3%

Base 83.0 74.5 86.0 100.1 107.3 109.8 113.2 117.9 124.4 130.5 138.0 4.7%

Low . . . . 105.1 106.0 106.6 108.8 112.5 115.6 119.3 2.5%

Hungary LH_TCZ High . . . . 59.1 62.8 68.6 75.8 82.8 90.0 98.1 8.6%

Base 49.6 49.2 50.7 55.2 58.0 60.6 63.1 66.3 70.1 73.3 77.1 4.9%

Low . . . . 56.8 58.3 58.8 60.0 61.4 62.4 63.7 2.0%

Ireland EI_TCZ High . . . . 161.2 169.7 181.7 192.1 196.4 200.3 202.9 4.5%

Base 129.5 136.7 137.5 149.6 159.1 165.7 172.4 179.6 187.1 193.0 196.0 3.9%

Low . . . . 157.1 161.5 164.0 168.1 172.2 175.8 180.0 2.7%

Italy LI_TCZ_1 High . . . . 227.7 236.6 251.5 266.2 274.4 287.5 302.3 4.5%

Base 217.7 210.0 218.5 221.9 224.6 229.4 236.4 242.7 250.0 256.3 264.3 2.5%

Low . . . . 221.8 223.4 224.0 225.6 227.6 228.4 229.3 0.5%

LI_TCZ_2 High . . . . 296.7 310.1 329.6 347.4 367.2 385.6 405.7 5.1%

Base 285.7 275.3 275.1 286.0 292.6 300.1 309.9 319.8 329.6 339.1 348.9 2.9%

Low . . . . 289.0 292.0 293.8 297.0 300.4 302.0 305.4 0.9%

Latvia EV_TCZ High . . . . 37.1 39.3 42.7 46.5 49.9 53.1 57.0 8.4%

Base 31.5 32.4 31.4 32.4 36.2 37.3 38.4 39.8 41.1 42.3 43.8 4.4%

Low . . . . 35.6 35.5 35.3 35.3 35.5 35.2 34.6 0.9%

Network Manager





Lisbon FIR LP_TCZ High . . . . 227.1 237.8 251.9 263.6 276.0 289.0 301.6 5.6%

Base 175.7 180.3 191.8 205.6 221.9 230.1 236.7 243.2 250.3 255.6 261.5 3.5%

Low . . . . 218.3 221.6 222.1 223.9 225.9 226.7 228.2 1.5%

Lithuania EY_TCZ High . . . . 26.2 28.1 30.7 33.4 35.8 39.1 42.7 7.9%

Base 19.2 21.0 23.6 25.1 25.8 26.9 28.4 29.9 31.3 32.6 33.9 4.4%

Low . . . . 25.2 25.8 26.3 27.2 27.8 28.2 28.7 2.0%

Luxembourg EL_TCZ High . . . . 43.8 45.9 49.3 52.5 55.3 58.0 62.2 6.1%

Base 34.9 37.3 39.0 41.1 43.3 44.8 46.6 48.5 50.7 52.3 54.6 4.1%

Low . . . . 42.7 43.6 44.7 45.7 46.9 48.1 49.1 2.6%

Malta LM_TCZ High . . . . 28.1 30.0 32.7 35.6 38.7 42.6 45.7 8.8%

Base 20.7 22.7 23.9 25.4 27.5 29.0 30.2 31.7 33.3 34.8 36.4 5.3%

Low . . . . 26.9 27.8 28.3 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.2 2.5%

Netherlands EH_TCZ High . . . . 366.5 380.1 396.3 409.0 422.7 428.7 444.4 2.7%

Base 339.2 345.0 356.6 369.2 366.4 380.1 395.0 407.4 420.8 433.4 441.0 2.6%

Low . . . . 366.3 380.0 393.9 406.3 417.9 422.1 427.8 2.1%

Norway EN_TCZ High . . . . 248.6 255.0 259.0 270.0 292.4 301.8 309.0 3.6%

Base 242.4 255.4 247.9 241.7 245.1 252.6 256.7 261.4 267.6 270.7 274.6 1.8%

Low . . . . 242.9 248.2 247.7 248.4 250.1 250.2 250.7 0.5%

Poland EP_TCZ High . . . . 179.8 195.9 218.4 240.1 263.8 288.5 311.9 9.3%

Base 148.9 149.9 156.4 167.1 176.4 187.6 199.0 210.9 223.8 235.5 249.5 5.9%

Low . . . . 173.5 180.9 184.8 190.3 195.4 199.5 204.0 2.9%

Romania LR_TCZ High . . . . 60.5 64.7 70.3 75.4 81.6 87.1 94.5 8.1%

Base 45.1 47.3 50.3 54.6 59.5 62.4 65.2 68.8 72.6 76.0 79.9 5.6%

Low . . . . 58.7 60.5 60.6 62.5 64.4 66.0 67.9 3.2%

Slovakia LZ_TCZ High . . . . 10.8 11.7 13.0 15.1 16.5 18.0 19.6 11.1%

Base 8.7 8.6 8.3 9.4 10.5 11.1 11.9 12.6 13.4 15.0 15.8 7.8%

Low . . . . 10.1 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.5 4.2%

Slovenia LJ_TCZ High . . . . 11.7 13.0 14.3 15.5 16.6 17.9 18.9 6.7%

Base 11.1 11.3 11.1 12.0 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.7 14.7 15.4 16.2 4.4%

Low . . . . 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.4 13.1 13.3 13.5 1.7%

Spain LE_TCZ High . . . . 732.3 771.1 812.7 859.3 877.8 908.8 956.5 5.0%

Base 725.6 700.4 651.2 680.5 716.2 742.5 768.5 800.9 819.7 826.4 848.2 3.2%

Low . . . . 704.4 720.9 727.6 739.4 750.8 765.4 774.0 1.9%

Sweden ES_TCZ_A High . . . . 143.3 147.7 153.7 160.5 168.7 174.8 181.8 4.1%

Base 121.7 128.6 135.6 137.1 141.7 144.8 147.9 150.7 154.5 158.1 161.0 2.3%

Low . . . . 140.1 141.5 141.9 143.7 144.9 145.6 146.6 1.0%

Switzerland LS_TCZ High . . . . 275.2 285.7 300.8 316.7 333.0 346.8 359.4 4.4%

Base 254.4 252.1 262.2 266.6 271.4 278.6 288.2 296.1 304.8 313.0 321.0 2.7%

Low . . . . 267.5 271.5 274.3 279.3 283.0 284.8 288.4 1.1%

Network Manager





UK EG_TCZ_B High . . . . 1222.0 1263.6 1313.1 1361.2 1437.5 1502.5 1556.9 4.0%

Base 1079.6 1106.0 1142.7 1187.0 1208.4 1245.4 1278.3 1310.4 1351.8 1381.1 1415.6 2.5%

Low . . . . 1190.6 1218.2 1235.5 1257.4 1278.2 1292.1 1317.4 1.5%

EG_TCZ_C High . . . . 930.4 960.5 996.5 1030.8 1085.9 1133.4 1171.0 3.7%

Base 826.5 843.8 877.1 907.6 920.4 949.0 973.2 998.0 1029.3 1049.8 1072.6 2.4%

Low . . . . 906.5 929.2 943.7 961.8 980.1 993.1 1014.4 1.6%

Network Manager




Annex 9 Terminal Navigation service units growth forecast per state

This appendix presents the same data as the previous, but presented as growth rather than counts of terminal navigation service units. The low growth observed for Bulgaria in 2015 can be attributed to the suppression of 4 airports in 2015 compared to what was considered in 2014. The rest of the TCZ changes does not have a significant impact.

Figure 63. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per Terminal Charging Zone.

Growth in Terminal Navigation Service Units

Annual Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Austria LO_TCZ High . . . . 1.4% 3.7% 5.7% 4.3% 5.2% 4.5% 4.4%

Base -2.7% -2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1% 2.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.3% 2.5%

Low . . . . -1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.1%

Belgium EB_TCZ_EBAW High . . . . 24.5% 3.9% 2.8% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7%

Base -9.6% -1.5% -10.6% 56.1% 21.7% 3.3% 2.6% 1.8% 2.2% 1.4% 1.6%

Low . . . . 20.0% 1.5% 2.1% 0.7% 1.2% 1.8% 1.0%

EB_TCZ_EBBR High . . . . 6.4% 4.2% 4.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

Base -4.7% -5.6% 3.0% 5.5% 4.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.7% 1.6% 1.1%

Low . . . . 3.4% 1.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1%

EB_TCZ_EBCI High . . . . 7.9% 5.6% 6.7% 6.2% 6.5% 5.9% 6.3%

Base 11.6% 8.3% -7.0% 3.8% 6.4% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 4.1% 3.5% 3.8%

Low . . . . 5.0% 2.4% 1.5% 2.0% 2.4% 1.3% 1.9%

EB_TCZ_EBLG High . . . . 6.3% 6.1% 7.7% 6.8% 6.4% 6.0% 6.5%

Base -13.9% -2.6% 8.1% 11.4% 5.0% 4.7% 4.8% 5.7% 5.6% 4.5% 4.8%

Low . . . . 3.9% 3.3% 3.0% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5% 4.4%

EB_TCZ_EBOS High . . . . 12.8% 3.5% 13.7% 5.4% 4.4% 3.7% 33.4%

Base -2.6% -7.5% -26.1% -3.3% 10.1% 2.4% 2.5% 4.2% 12.1% 2.4% 2.7%

Low . . . . 6.8% 3.0% -0.6% 1.6% 2.1% 2.7% 1.8%

Bulgaria18

LB_TCZ High . . . . 10.6% 5.8% 10.4% 7.9% 8.0% 6.4% 6.9%

Base 0.9% 0.5% 6.1% -45.6% 8.3% 4.1% 5.3% 6.1% 5.2% 4.1% 4.2%

Low . . . . 6.1% 2.5% 2.0% 3.1% 3.2% 2.2% 4.1%

Croatia LD_TCZ High . . . . 2.3% 4.1% 5.9% 5.4% 5.3% 6.6% 5.3%

Base -4.5% -1.0% 3.5% 6.2% 0.5% 2.7% 3.2% 4.0% 3.2% 1.5% 2.7%

Low . . . . -1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5%

18

The definition of the Terminal Charging Zone for Bulgaria takes into account the definition available for the February 2015 forecast: 4 airports have been taken out from 2016, which explains the low growth for 2016

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Annual Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Cyprus LC_TCZ High . . . . 7.1% 6.5% 8.6% 7.8% 9.7% 8.5% 10.2%

Base -3.1% -8.3% 2.5% 1.0% 4.7% 3.7% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 3.9% 5.6%

Low . . . . 2.3% 1.6% 1.1% 2.0% 2.2% 1.4% 2.4%

Czech Republic LK_TCZ High . . . . 9.0% 8.1% 8.1% 7.0% 8.8% 6.6% 8.2%

Base -10.8% -2.1% -1.0% 3.6% 7.0% 4.8% 5.8% 4.0% 5.0% 3.9% 4.4%

Low . . . . 5.1% 2.9% 1.4% 2.3% 3.3% 1.4% 2.2%

Denmark EK_TCZ High . . . . 7.0% 3.7% 5.3% 4.5% 4.9% 3.9% 3.8%

Base -1.1% 3.1% 4.3% 2.4% 5.9% 1.6% 3.7% 2.1% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3%

Low . . . . 4.5% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6%

Estonia EE_TCZ High . . . . 2.4% 6.9% 8.9% 7.7% 17.0% 9.9% 9.0%

Base 18.0% -22.8% 3.4% 5.6% 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 4.7% 8.2% 12.3%

Low . . . . -2.1% 1.1% 6.7% 2.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6%

Finland EF_TCZ High . . . . 5.6% 3.6% 4.9% 6.1% 6.6% 5.8% 5.2%

Base -8.9% 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% 4.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 3.4% 2.7% 4.3%

Low . . . . 3.0% 1.1% 0.1% 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5%

France LF_TCZ High . . . . 2.2% 3.0% 4.1% 3.3% 4.3% 2.2% 2.2%

Base -4.6% -0.2% -5.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 3.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6%

Low . . . . -0.4% -0.0% -0.3% 1.3% 1.6% 0.8% 1.1%

Germany ED_TCZ High . . . . 4.9% 3.0% 4.8% 3.9% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7%

Base -1.2% -1.0% 2.3% 2.1% 3.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Low . . . . 2.6% 0.8% 0.5% 3.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.5%

Greece LG_TCZ High . . . . 9.4% 4.0% 6.2% 6.9% 9.2% 7.4% 8.0%

Base -14.0% -10.2% 15.5% 16.4% 7.2% 2.3% 3.1% 4.1% 5.5% 5.0% 5.7%

Low . . . . 5.0% 0.9% 0.6% 2.0% 3.4% 2.7% 3.2%

Hungary LH_TCZ High . . . . 7.0% 6.3% 9.2% 10.4% 9.3% 8.8% 9.0%

Base -16.0% -0.9% 3.1% 9.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.1% 5.1% 5.8% 4.5% 5.3%

Low . . . . 2.9% 2.6% 0.8% 2.1% 2.4% 1.7% 2.0%

Ireland EI_TCZ High . . . . 7.7% 5.3% 7.0% 5.7% 2.3% 2.0% 1.3%

Base -4.7% 5.5% 0.6% 8.8% 6.4% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 3.2% 1.5%

Low . . . . 5.0% 2.8% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5% 2.1% 2.4%

Italy LI_TCZ_1 High . . . . 2.6% 3.9% 6.3% 5.9% 3.1% 4.8% 5.1%

Base -3.6% -3.5% 4.0% 1.6% 1.2% 2.1% 3.0% 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% 3.1%

Low . . . . -0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4%

LI_TCZ_2 High . . . . 3.7% 4.5% 6.3% 5.4% 5.7% 5.0% 5.2%

Base -2.2% -3.7% -0.1% 4.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9%

Low . . . . 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1%

Latvia EV_TCZ High . . . . 14.5% 6.0% 8.7% 8.7% 7.4% 6.4% 7.2%

Base -2.3% 2.9% -3.2% 3.3% 11.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.7% 3.1% 3.0% 3.6%

Low . . . . 9.8% -0.3% -0.5% 0.2% 0.4% -0.8% -1.8%

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Annual Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Lisbon FIR LP_TCZ High . . . . 10.5% 4.7% 5.9% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.4%

Base -1.0% 2.6% 6.4% 7.2% 7.9% 3.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.9% 2.1% 2.3%

Low . . . . 6.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7%

Lithuania EY_TCZ High . . . . 4.4% 7.5% 9.3% 8.7% 7.3% 9.2% 9.2%

Base 8.0% 9.5% 12.2% 6.2% 2.8% 4.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.6% 4.1% 4.2%

Low . . . . 0.4% 2.5% 2.2% 3.1% 2.2% 1.5% 1.8%

Luxembourg EL_TCZ High . . . . 6.7% 4.7% 7.3% 6.6% 5.3% 4.9% 7.1%

Base -1.0% 6.8% 4.4% 5.5% 5.3% 3.4% 4.2% 3.9% 4.6% 3.1% 4.4%

Low . . . . 3.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.8% 2.6% 2.1%

Malta LM_TCZ High . . . . 10.8% 6.5% 9.2% 8.7% 8.9% 9.8% 7.4%

Base . 9.7% 5.6% 6.1% 8.2% 5.5% 4.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.4% 4.6%

Low . . . . 5.8% 3.5% 1.9% 2.2% 1.5% 1.2% 1.7%

Netherlands EH_TCZ High . . . . -0.7% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 3.4% 1.4% 3.7%

Base 0.0% 1.7% 3.4% 3.5% -0.7% 3.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.0% 1.8%

Low . . . . -0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% 2.9% 1.0% 1.4%

Norway EN_TCZ High . . . . 2.8% 2.6% 1.6% 4.2% 8.3% 3.2% 2.4%

Base 5.6% 5.4% -2.9% -2.5% 1.4% 3.1% 1.6% 1.8% 2.4% 1.1% 1.4%

Low . . . . 0.5% 2.2% -0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2%

Poland EP_TCZ High . . . . 7.6% 9.0% 11.5% 9.9% 9.9% 9.4% 8.1%

Base 11.4% 0.7% 4.4% 6.8% 5.5% 6.4% 6.1% 6.0% 6.1% 5.2% 5.9%

Low . . . . 3.8% 4.3% 2.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3%

Romania LR_TCZ High . . . . 10.8% 7.0% 8.6% 7.3% 8.1% 6.9% 8.4%

Base 21.5% 4.8% 6.4% 8.6% 9.1% 4.8% 4.5% 5.5% 5.5% 4.7% 5.1%

Low . . . . 7.5% 3.1% 0.2% 3.1% 3.1% 2.5% 2.9%

Slovakia LZ_TCZ High . . . . 15.2% 8.6% 10.8% 16.8% 9.1% 8.9% 8.8%

Base -11.7% -1.7% -3.4% 12.9% 12.2% 6.2% 6.4% 6.4% 6.0% 11.9% 5.7%

Low . . . . 8.1% 5.7% 2.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 3.2%

Slovenia LJ_TCZ High . . . . -2.5% 11.6% 9.5% 8.3% 7.5% 7.9% 5.4%

Base -10.8% 1.4% -1.7% 8.0% -4.5% 7.1% 7.3% 4.4% 7.2% 4.3% 5.3%

Low . . . . -6.2% 2.2% 1.9% 5.8% 5.4% 1.5% 2.1%

Spain LE_TCZ High . . . . 7.6% 5.3% 5.4% 5.7% 2.2% 3.5% 5.3%

Base -6.6% -3.5% -7.0% 4.5% 5.2% 3.7% 3.5% 4.2% 2.4% 0.8% 2.6%

Low . . . . 3.5% 2.3% 0.9% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0% 1.1%

Sweden ES_TCZ_A High . . . . 4.5% 3.1% 4.1% 4.4% 5.1% 3.6% 4.0%

Base -0.2% 5.7% 5.5% 1.1% 3.4% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 2.5% 2.4% 1.8%

Low . . . . 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.7%

Switzerland LS_TCZ High . . . . 3.2% 3.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 4.1% 3.7%

Base 1.2% -0.9% 4.0% 1.7% 1.8% 2.7% 3.4% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6%

Low . . . . 0.3% 1.5% 1.0% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7% 1.3%

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Annual Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

UK EG_TCZ_B High . . . . 2.9% 3.4% 3.9% 3.7% 5.6% 4.5% 3.6%

Base -0.1% 2.5% 3.3% 3.9% 1.8% 3.1% 2.6% 2.5% 3.2% 2.2% 2.5%

Low . . . . 0.3% 2.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 2.0%

UK EG_TCZ_C19

High . . . . 2.5% 3.2% 3.7% 3.4% 5.3% 4.4% 3.3%

Base -0.4% 2.1% 3.9% 3.5% 1.4% 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% 3.1% 2.0% 2.2%

Low . . . . -0.1% 2.5% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.3% 2.1%

19

The UK has defined the UK _TCZ_C as a separate terminal charging zone, which covers the London Approach Service (LAS) for the five London airports (Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton and London City). These five airports are also part of the nine airports forming the UK_TCZ_B.

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Annex 10 References

1 EUROCONTROL Update of the Seven-Year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast:

2015-2021, STATFOR Document 568, October 2015. 2 GDP Elasticities for the STATFOR Forecast, STATFOR Document 499, Draft v0.4, November 2013.

3 High-Speed Train Model Recalibration, STATFOR Document 551, Draft v0.1, November 2014.

4 EUROCONTROL Industry Monitor, the EUROCONTROL bulletin on air transport trends

Issue N°181. March 2016. 5 EUROCONTROL Update of the Seven-Year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast:

2014-2020, STATFOR Document 542, October 2014. 6 Task5: Mitigation of the Challenges, Challenges of Growth 2013, EUROCONTROL June 2013.

EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST FEBRUARY 2016

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