EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE1 AIRSPACE CONGESTION: Pre-Tactical Measures and Operational Events ICRAT Conference, Zilina November 22, 2004 Nabil BELOUARDY.

EUROCONTROL EXPERIMENTAL CENTRE1

AIRSPACE CONGESTION: Pre-Tactical Measures and Operational Events

ICRAT Conference, ZilinaNovember 22, 2004

Nabil BELOUARDYPhD Student @ ENST Paris

& EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre

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Air Traffic Management system

ATS (Air Traffic Service)

Air Traffic Control service

ASM (Airspace Management)

Allocation of airspace

ATFM (Air Traffic Flow Management)

Demand / Capacity balance

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Capacity values (ECIP 2004)

State ACC Code Hourly movements

Austria Vienna LOVV 147

Eurocontrol Maastricht UAC EDYY 258

France Paris LFFF 244

France Marseilles LFMM 210

Germany Munich EDMM 235

Germany Karlsruhe UAC EDUU 188

Italy Rome LIRR 186

Slovakia Bratislava LZBB 073

UK London EGTT 370

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Area Control Centre (EGTTC ACC)

Cross section

Opening Scheme

EGLMU EGLUS EGLMU

EGLMS EG26LME

EG25LMW24:0021:0013:0005:3000:00

Longitudinal sectionEG01LUW EG02LUE

FL 310

EG25LMWU EG26LMEU

FL 245

EG25LMWL EG25LMEL

FL 195

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Flight Plans

Point profile Time: Beacon: Route: FL 1631:EGLL:EGLLBPK6F:000 1634:*1LON:EGLLBPK6F:060

1635:CHT:EGLLBPK6F:060 1638:BPK:M185:060 1640:TOTRI:M185:134 1641:MATCH:M185:147 1643:BRAIN:M185:207 1644:DAGGA:M185:210 1644:*6CLN:M185:210 1645:CLN:L620:210 1647:ARTOV:L620:210 1652:REDFA:EHAMREDFA10:210 1657:SULUT:EHAMREDFA10:175 1700:SUGOL:EHAMREDFA10:100 1705:*SPL:EHAMREDFA10:070 1712:EHAM:EHAMREDFA10:000

Airspace profile min: Airspace: max 1631:EGMIDFI:1631 1631:EGT1ACC:1652 1631:EGTTACC:1652

1631:EILOND:1652 1631:EGTTBNN:1637 1631:EGCCTC2:1646 1637:EGTTLAM:1641 1641:EGTTDAG:1646 1646:EGTTRED:1652 1646:EGCCTC1:1652 1652:EHEB000245:1712 1652:EHM1245:1701 1652:EHSECT4:1700 1656:EHAAFIRT:1712 1700:EHAMTMA:1712 1701:EHACOD:1704

ATFM regulation Possible delay if flights across some ATC unit exceed capacity.

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Need for ATFM regulation

Demand exceeds available capacity in some periods

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Computer Assisted Slot Allocation

Dynamic and deterministic algorithm: 3 hours before requested take-off time

No change in Flight Plan is possible Delay affected = Argmax (regulations)

2 hours before take-off No more delay will be affected Delay can only decrease

½ an hour before take-off Slot is allocated for take-off

Uncertainties Will the aircraft take its slot ? Will the crossed sectors be congestion-free?

Take-off time T0 – 3 h

t1

T0 – 2 h

t2

T0 – ½ h t

T0 t1 (T0 – 2 h)

t2 var t1 var

t2 (T0 – ½ h)

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Efficiency of ATFM regulation

Collapsed sectors (groups) still suffer from over-delivery

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Why ?

Hypotheses Uncertainties

If all aircraft take off at its slot, regulation of CASA will be fulfilled

Severe weather New flight paths result from re-routing

Nonconformity of Capacity with Opening Scheme No warranty for constraints satisfaction

Aircraft failure to respect Air Traffic rules Irregularities in traffic shape

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Uncertainties

ZOOM

Period of 09:00 -13:00 Average uncertainty on EOT is close to zero Standard deviation is less than 10 minutes Small center, crossed in almost 10 minutes

Can’t generate130% of capacity (depicted by black color)

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Weather

Jet Stream Physical routes can be shift (traffic variability)

Aircraft coming from America are not concerned

Arr Dep

United States Canada

Central America

Northern Europe

Southern Europe else

United States 0 0 0 3 0 0

Canada 0 0 0 0 0 0

Central America 0 0 0 0 0 0

Northern Europe 6 2 0 58 67 7

Southern Europe 0 0 0 7 0 0

else 0 0 0 2 0 0

Distribution of aircraft that have eerie flight plans according to Departure and Arrival areas

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ACC Capacity vs. Opening Scheme

Traffic load in opened groups (Filed configuration) Bad from 13:00 to 21:00

Actual configuration ?

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ACC Capacity vs. Opening Scheme

Final demand and Regulated traffic curves are almost identical, no obvious limitation Flight demands comply with ACC capacity

constraints At collapsed sector level, capacity of activated

groups are exceeded Regulation at a Macro level (Centre) does not insure

a safe flow at micro level (Opening scheme) Trade-Off: Over-flow / Delay

Adaptive optimization of Opening Scheme to the observed traffic

Control of used ACC capacity value to prevent the congestion in groups

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Stochastic pre-tactical planning

Other traffic shapes of other sub-centers of London EGTT shows Compliance between Final demand and Regulated traffic

No excessive demand Compliance between Regulated and Current traffic

Smoothed uncertainty

No need for stochastic

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Over-delivery / Total delay trade-off Consistency problem between Macro / Micro layers

Will be investigated Possible if demand grows as fast as airspace resource

improvement

If demand continue increasing while capacity remains steady Regulation by ATFM delay will reach saturation Less aircraft are to be controlled if Long range flights are

isolated in a kind of uncontrolled highways (like over the oceans)

Conclusion

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THE END Thank you for your attention

Questions ?