Ethnic change in the populations of the developed world. European Population Conference, Barcelona Thursday 10 July 2.30 D.A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc.

Ethnic change in the populations of the

developed world. European Population Conference, Barcelona

Thursday 10 July 2.30

D.A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc with the assistance of M.D. Smith.

Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford

http://www.spsw.ox.ac.uk/oxpop

Projecting ‘foreign – origin’ populations: aims, concepts and problems

• Major concerns of projection: decline and ageing, more recently human capital.

• Differential fertility and migration now also transforming population composition.

• Beginnings of a new demographic transition? First demographic transition out of phase in different populations

• Implications for change in identity, culture, religion and politics, provision of services.

• Problems of definition, data and projection.

Should projections assume rapid absorption of immigrant populations, or persistence of demographic and other distinctiveness?

• ‘foreign origin or background’ – projections assume that ‘third generation’ becomes statistically invisible.

• ‘Ethnic’ and ‘racial’ definitions imply potential permanence.

• But mixed origin populations may eventually predominate.

Netherlands 2005 – 2050. Percent of population of foreign origin with and without migration, to show

effect of ‘two-generation’ rule.Netherlands 2005- 2050. Percent of population of foreign orgin ('Western'

and 'non-Western') with and without migration. Source: CBS.

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

percent foreign-origin with zeromigration, 2003-based

percent foreign-origin 2004-based

Projections of population by origin: a summary of sources.

Projections of foreign-origin populationsend criteria sourceyear

Austria 2050 citizenship only Lebhart and Munz 2003Denmark 2050 'foreign origin' official statisticsGermany 2050 'foreign origin' Ulrich 2001Netherlands 2050 'foreign origin' official statisticsNew Zealand 2021 ethnic origin official statisticsNorway 2060 'foreign origin' official statisticsSweden 2050 'foreign origin' official statisticsSwitzerland 2050 citizenship only official statisticsUSA 2100 race and Hispanic origin official statistics

Australia 2009 aboriginal populations only official statisticsCanada 2017 aboriginal populations only official statisticsNote: 'foreign origin' or 'foreign background' usually taken to include foreign immigrants plus those with one or both parents foreign immigrant Projections of 'foreign origin' usually include 'citizenship' and immigrants.(i.e. two generations). Third generation assumed to be national. Fertility assumed to converge to close to, or same as, national average. Migration usually held constant. Mortality of all groups mostly assumed to follow national projected trend. Individual groups often clustered into 'Western background' and 'non-Western background' or similar classification.

Norway 2005 – 2050. Projection of population of foreign origin, in two major categories (Percent of total population).

Norway 2005-2050. projection of population of foreign origin (percent).

Source: Statistics Norway 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Western'

Non-Western'

All foreign origin

United States 1999 – 2100, projection by race and Hispanic origin.

US population 1999 - 2100 Middle Series, by ethnic group. Source; US Bureau of the Census 2000.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

2031

2035

2039

2043

2047

2051

2055

2059

2063

2067

2071

2075

2079

2083

2087

2091

2095

2099

Hispanic

White non-Hispanic

Black non-Hispanic

American Indian NH

Asian and Pacific NH

Comparison of results of some European and US ‘foreign-origin’ projections.

Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000-2050,

selected countries, as percent of total population.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

per

cen

t

Germany medium variant

USA medium variant (excludes black population)

Netherlands base scenario

Denmark 2002- based medium variant

Sweden foreign background 2004 based

Austria 'Compensating' scenario, no naturalisation.

Problems in projecting UK ethnic minority populations

• Base population available from (1971), 1991 and 2001 censuses, Labour Force Survey etc.

• But no vital registration by ethnic origin • Ethnic categories unstable.• Different (indirect) methods of estimating fertility

give different answers.• No life tables available yet.• Migration data weak, no data by ethnic origin.

2.3

1.9

0.8

3.7

2.4

1.0

3.5

2.3

1.1

2.9

2.3

0.9

4.8

4.2

1.3

4.8

4.1

1.7

2.9

1.9

0.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1929-1944 1945-1959 1960-1984

White

Caribbean

Black-African

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Chinese

Source: General Household Survey, 1988-2000/01

Completed Family Size by year of Birth and Ethnic Origin: GHS women born 1929 – 1984.

N.B. latest cohort incomplete.

The ‘Own-Child’ Method of reconstructing birth-rates in past and current calendar years: Matching and allocation

process.

TFR, 1965-2001: Comparing UK LFS own-child estimates of TFR with TFR from ONS registration data (total population).

Total Fertility Rate, 1961-2001: from LFS 'Own-child' Estimates and ONS Birth Registration Data.

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

TF

R

LFS Estimate (UK)

Birth Registrations UK

TFR trends of UK ethnic minority populations 1965 – 2006data from Labour Force Survey by own-child method, 7-year moving averages.

NB estimates before 1980 based on small numbers.

TFR ethnic minorities, UK 1965 - 2006 from LFS by own-child method; seven-year moving averages

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

White

Black-Caribbean

Black-African

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Chinese

UK Pakistani TFR trends 1987 – 2006 unsmoothed, with confidence intervals to show range of error

Pakistani TFR 1987 - 2006. unsmoothed, with 95% upper lower confidence bounds.

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Pakistani TFR 1987-2006

upper bound of 95% confidence interval

lower bound of 95% confidence interval

mean no. of women per year 3368, mean no. of births per year 351

Transition of UK Indian total fertility,1965 – 2006, annual estimates and 7-year moving average.

Source: Labour Force Surveys, own-child method

UK Indian TFR 1965 - 2006 from Labour Force Survey (own-child method)annual data and 7-year moving average

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Indian TFR annual estimate

Indian TFR 7 - year moving average

Projection of fertility: UK Indian total fertility 1965 – 2006 and predicted to 2026 (asymptote 1.53)

UK Indian TFR 1965-2006 and predicted to 2026TFR data from own-child calculations

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

Indian TFR

Predicted TFRmodel= a+b/(1+exp(k*(t-t0)))

r2 = 0.918Asymptotic predicted TFR = 1.53 Upper bound 95% CI = 1.838, Lower bound 95% CI = 1.192

UK Chinese TFR 1965 – 2006: asymptote 1.29

UK Chinese TFR 1965 - 2006, estimated and predicted values

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Chinese TFR

Predicted Chinese TFR

Model = a+b/(1+exp(k*(t-T0))). R2 = 0.822Asymptotic predicted TFR = 1.29Upper bound 95% confidence interval = 1.487Lower bound 95% confidence interval = 1.084

Convergence in fertility? some persistent differentials in US fertility. Source: US Bureau of the Census.

Total fertility trends by race and Hispanic origin, US 1960-2000. Source: US Bureau of the Census

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Black (mother)

Black (child)

American Indian

Asia/Pacific Islander

Hispanic

Non-Hispanic White

All races

TFR comparisons, UK ethnic groups, various sources

Comparison of TFR estimates for UK ethnic groupsUK UK London England 1 England 2

1996-2000 2001-2005 2002 2003 2004

TFR 95% CI TFR 95% CI TFR TFR TFR

All 1.72 0.015 1.70 0.019 1.64 1.73White 1.72 0.017 1.71 0.020 1.24 1.73 1.56Mixed 1.89 0.197 1.53 0.220 1.72 4.68 Mixed

1.88 0.125 1.94 0.200 1.83 1.55 1.35 Black

2.41 0.127 2.32 0.190 2.52 2.071.87 0.147 2.09 0.180 4.03 1.52

Indian 1.63 0.085 1.64 0.130 1.54 1.50 2.13 Asian

Pakistani 2.91 0.141 2.79 0.200 3.10 2.243.43 0.249 2.97 0.330 3.60 2.06

Chinese 1.23 0.168 1.24 0.220 1.08 1.39 0.93 Chinese

1.94 0.197 1.80 0.220 2.38 1.97Other 1.94 0.147 2.09 0.180 4.52 1.62All non-White 2.22 88388 2.12 16324Sources: England 1:Large and Ghosh, 2004 t 3, London: Klodawski 2004 t.10 p. 14England 2 Rees 2008 t 15.4, UK this paper

Other Asian

Black Caribbean

Black African

Black Other

Bangladeshi

Mortality• Mortality statistics: ASMRs difficult to compute:

small numbers, under-20s deficient. • Chinese probably have lowest death rates.• IMR mostly higher.• For initial projections, England and Wales life

tables used. projected to 2051 according to GAD assumptions.

• Large and Ghosh (2006), and Rees (2008) used differential SMRs derived from geographical areas.

Estimated life table for immigrants born in the West Indies, 2001 (qx)

England and Wales, immigrants born in the West Indies, qx 2001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

Und

er 1

1-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85 p

lus

qx WI males UN 1 parameter

qx WI males actual data

WI female real IMR

qx WI males real IMR

Estimating migration by ethnic origin, and the diversity of future trends.

• UK migration data based on small sample, very broad categories only by citizenship, birthplace, country of origin. Ethnic origin inferred indirectly.

• Recent trends and policy suggested further increase except asylum; these and official projections assume current level (unlikely).

• Eastern European flow will fall with A8 growth; Labour migration will fall with recession; return migration to India; persistence of marriage migration; emigration drivers in Africa will continue.

UK population projections 2006-81, 2006-based, GAD Principal Projection and variant migration assumptions.

UK population projected to 2081, GAD Principal Projection, Natural Change and high and low migration variants (millions). Source: Government Actuary's Department 2007

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061 2066 2071 2076 2081

Principal projection

Natural change

High migration: 250,000

Low migration: 130,000

Spouse migration to the UK 1973 - 2006 (thousands)

Spouse migration by sex , UK 1973-2006Source: Home Office acceptances for settlement.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

All husbands All wives

Labour migration by work permit, UK 1973- 2006

Work permits holders and dependants admitted, UK 1973-2006. Source: Home Office Control of Immigration Statistics

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

≥12 months <12 months dependants total

Some UK projections• Choices: to constrain or not to constrain? separate

components or interactive? Migration numbers or rates?

• Various other approaches: Large and Ghosh (2006); Rees (2008) and Bains (2006).

• Diversity in fertility and migration• Mortality assumed to be England and Wales

average• ‘Mixed’ populations begin to predominate.

Projection of UK populations 2001-2051, combined

into three major groups. Assumptions: near-convergent fertility, constant migration, mortality as in GAD 2004-based PP.

Percent of UK population in three major ethnic categories, 2001 - 2051, assuming net annual inflow of 50,000 white non-British population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

British, Scottish, Irish

non-white ethnic minority

white non-British

Projection of UK ethnic minority populations 2001-51, grouped into ‘non-white’ and ‘white non-British’, to show the

importance of migration.

Projection of UK ethnic minority populations 2001-2051 (1000s). Assumptions: net migration as estimated for 2001, non-white fertility declining from 2001, mortality declining acording

to 2004-based GAD PP.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

UK non-white ethnic minority population with current migration

UK non-white ethnic minority population without migration

Other white or Irish

other white without migration

UK population projection 2051 by age, sex and foreign /

British ancestry. Assumptions for total population as GAD Principal Projection 2006 (net migration 190K;

TFR 1.85)

UK population 2051 projection by age and origin (1000s).Assumptions for total population: migration, TFR as in GAD Principal Projection 2008.

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+

Males British origin Males foreign originFemales British origin Females foreign origin

Projection of UK Black populations and ‘Mixed’ (without intergenerational transfers) 2001-2051

(1000s).

Population projections, UK 2001-2051, Black groups and Mixed (1000s). Assumes falling fertility, net migration as 2001 and falling death rates according to GAD 2004-based PP. Not

constrained to national population total. Does not include mixed unions.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Black African

Black Caribbean

Black Other

Mixed

Projection of selected UK Asian populations and ‘Other’, 2001-2051 (1000s).

Projection of UK population 2001-2051, Asian groups and Other (1000s)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Bangladeshi

Indian

Pakistani

Chinese

Other

Projected rank order of ethnic groups 2001-20512001 2026 2051

1 Indian Indian African2 Pakistani African Indian3 Mixed Pakistani Other4 Caribbean Other Chinese5 African Chinese Pakistani6 Bangladeshi Mixed Mixed7 Other Asian Other Asian Other Asian8 Chinese Caribbean Caribbean9 Other Bangladeshi Bangladeshi

10 Other Black Other Black Other BlackNote: convergent fertility, migration constant at 2001 levels, mortality declining on GAD assumptions, no mixed unions considered.

Births of mixed origin as proportion of all births to mothers of different ethnic groups, UK, 1992-2001

40.7

35.3

16.6

12.8

8.9

4.11.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45C

hine

se

Car

ibbe

an

Bla

ck-

Afr

ican

Indi

an

Pak

ista

ni

Ban

glad

eshi

Whi

te

% M

ixe

d B

irth

s

Source: Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, 1992-2001 (Autumn Quarters)

Projection of Mixed populations, and Caribbean, with and without inter-generational contributions,

UK 2001 – 2056 (thousands).Growth of mixed populations with fertility contributions from selected other groups, UK 2001 - 2051 (thousands). Fertility contributions from British, African,

Caribbean, Chinese, Other Black, Other.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056

Mixed

Mixed plus British, African, WestIndian, Chinese, Other, Other Black

Black Caribbean

Black Caribbean minus mixed

Probabilistic projection 2001-2100: Mixed populations as a proportion of the

total UK population Uk,Mixed,Both Sexes

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

20

55

20

60

20

65

20

70

20

75

20

80

20

85

20

90

20

95

21

00

Year

Pro

po

rtio

n

Fra cti les

S er gei 's Offi ce PI II, fil e: D:\I IASA2005\M inorities \resul ts\[ chart s_OK_2100_ok_new2_2_del.x ls] ,01-Mar -05 13:22

Conclusions• Projections of population by ethnic origin in UK are

possible but with difficulty.• Must be regarded as indicators of implications of

assumptions, not prophesies.• Most sensitive and unpredictable variable is migration, not

fertility or mortality.• Migration policy must not be ignored.• Substantial growth, and re-alignment of relative size, of

some groups is very likely.• ‘Mixed’ groups gaining in importance – multiple origins

will eventually make ethnic categories less meaningful.• Next steps must include migration scenarios.

Net migration by citizenship 1967 – 2005 (thousands)

UK net migration by citizenship 1967 - 2005 (thousands). Note: there are discontinuities in this series at 1991. Source: ONS International Migration Statistics Series MN

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

UK citizens

Foreign citizens

Logistic curve fitted to UK Chinese TFR data 1965 – 2006. Asymptotic TFR 1.285; 95% confidence intervals 1.084 and 1.487

Projections of UK 'Black African' population, 2001-51 (thousands)

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

S1 Low fert, no migration S2 Low fert, migration S3 Constant fert, no migration S4 constant fert, migration

Projections of South Asian populations, 2001-51 (1000s).

Population Projections 2001-2051: UK South Asian Groups - high and low variants

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Tho

usan

ds

Bangladeshis Zero mig, TFR 3.0 - 1.9

Indians Zero migration, TFR 1.6

Pakistanis Zero Mig, TFR2.97 - 2.05

Bangladeshis Mig 4k, TFR 3.0 - 1.9

Indians Mig13.9k, TFR 1.6

Pakistanis Mig 12k, TFR 2.97 - 2.05,

Population Projections 2001-2051: UK South Asian Groups - Some high and low variants

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Indians (P ostive Migration at 1991-2000annual average, Fertility held constant at2001 level)

P akistanis (P ostive Migration at 1991-2000 annual average, Fertility heldconstant at 2001 level)

Bangladeshis (P ostive Migration at 1991-2000 annual average, Fertility heldconstant at 2001 level)

Indians (Zero Migration at 1991-2000annual average, Fertilityconverging/declining at projected ratebased on 1980-2001 trend)

P akistanis (Zero Migration at 1991-2000annual average, Fertilityconverging/declining at projected ratebased on 1980-2001 trend)

Bangladeshis (Zero Migration at 1991-2000 annual average, Fertilityconverging/declining at projected ratebased on 1980-2001 trend)

Examples of calculation of asfrs from ‘own-child’ method.

'Other' women. asfrs LFS 'own-child'1998-2002 women babies asfr15-19 98 1 0.010220-24 153 7 0.045825-29 182 16 0.087930-34 186 24 0.129035-39 107 6 0.056140-44 148 3 0.020345-49 92 0 0.0000

sum 966 57 0.3492TFR 1.75

1995-2001 Indian women, LFS 'own-child'.women babies asfr

17.5 3043 12 0.003922.5 2904 177 0.061027.5 3711 434 0.116932.5 3583 356 0.099437.5 3558 153 0.043042.5 2970 21 0.007147.5 2443 0 0.0000

sum 22212 1153 0.3313TFR 1.66

Comparisons of OXPOP projection with GAD 2004-based PP.

UK pop 2006-2056 with migration and SRs 2005-6 etc compared with GAD 2004-based PP.

(thousands)

60,000

62,000

64,000

66,000

68,000

70,000

72,000

2006

2016

2026

2036

2046

2056

This projection using GAD data

GAD 2004-based Principal Projction

UK population 2006-2056 natural change only with SRs 2005-6 etc compared with GAD 20-based PP natural change

(thousands).

54000

55000

56000

57000

58000

59000

60000

61000

62000

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2056

This projectionnatural change

GAD 2004based naturalchange

Indian population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)

5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

females males

Pakistani population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)

7.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 7.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

males females

Foreign-born Black-African inflow, 1986-2002 by sex and age upon arrival

Estimated Ethnic Composition of Births in England and Wales, 1993-2002 (n.b. scale)

Probabilistic projection of the UK white population 2001-2100

Uk,White ,Both Sexes

0.00

10 000.00

20 000.00

30 000.00

40 000.00

50 000.00

60 000.00

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

20

55

20

60

20

65

20

70

20

75

20

80

20

85

20

90

20

95

21

00

Year

To

tal p

op

ula

tio

n (

tho

usa

nd

s)

Fra cti les

S er gei 's Office PII I, file: D:\I IASA2005\Mi norities \result s\[ charts _OK_2100_ok_new2_2.x ls] ,01-Mar -05 10:59