Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Grain Market Outlook for Grain Market Outlook for 2007-09 2007-09 8/15/07 By Dr. Robert Wisner, University Professor of Economics and Coles Professor of International Agriculture Iowa State University Ames, Iowa, U.S.A. For presentation at the Midwest- Great Plains Outlook Conference 8/15/07
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Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Grain Market Outlook for 2007-09 8/15/07
Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Grain Market Outlook for 2007-09 8/15/07. By Dr. Robert Wisner, University Professor of Economics and Coles Professor of International Agriculture Iowa State University Ames, Iowa, U.S.A. For presentation at the Midwest-Great Plains Outlook Conference 8/15/07. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Grain Ethanol & The Corn & Feed Grain Market Outlook for 2007-09Market Outlook for 2007-09
8/15/07
By Dr. Robert Wisner, University Professor of Economics and Coles Professor of
International Agriculture
Iowa State University Ames, Iowa, U.S.A.
For presentation at the Midwest-Great Plains Outlook Conference 8/15/07
41 countries encourage biofuels41 countries encourage biofuelsMajor Countries with Ethanol Fuels
Figure 2. Corn Planting Date and YieldField Tests at DeKalb and Monmouth, Illinois, 2005 and 2006
218
225227
224
214
199
180
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
3/31 4/10 4/20 4/30 5/10 5/20 5/30
Bu./ac. 30,000 population
Source: February 2007 Newsletter Volume 26:2, Department of Crop Sciences, College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, www.cropsci.uiuc.edu/research/rdc/monmouth/newsletters/2007/Feb_2007.cfm.
Percent planted 4/30 Crop Progress Report:
1997-2006 avg. = 44 %
2007 = 23 %
At 10-yr. avg. pace 19 mil. additional acres would have been planted by the
end of April
August 2007 Crop Production
Crop Unit Aug ‘07
% Chgfrom PrevForecast
% Chgfrom Prev
Season
Corn: Planted Mil
Ac92.9 NC + 18.6
Harvested Mil Ac
85.4 NC + 20.9
Yield Bu/Ac 152.8 -- + 2.5 Production Bil Bu 13.1 -- + 23.9
Corn Objective Yield RegionDerived Grain Weight vs Ears per Acre
Aug 0706
04
020301
00
94
9998
9697
95
93
9205
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
0.38
Ears Per Acre
Lbs/Ear
Corn for Grain Yields 2007Bushels and Change From Previous Year
65-7
153#7
1707
150-6
80-65
1153
17815
157NC
18014
13217 120
-26
150#10
90-52
111-36
156-5
12515
137-1
168#16
112-17
185#NC
123-6
94-38
12514
143-16
13530
110-12
100-10
U.S. 152.83.7
# Record HighNC = No Change
11720
95-30
142#21
80-40
210#NC
1452
*
2007
2007
Model Forecast:Model Forecast: $3.11/bu$3.11/bu. U.S.. U.S. ’ ’07-08 & 07-08 & $3.20$3.20 for ’08-09for ’08-09
Proj. Proj.
Ethanol Economics – new plants Ethanol Economics – new plants U. of Minn. 2005 costsU. of Minn. 2005 costs
term impacts• U.S. $0.51 blending credit reduced or
made variable• Declining global livestock feeding
Need for Both Ethanol and Animal Agriculture
• 100 million gallon ethanol plant– 37 million bushels of corn– 80 workers directly employed
• 37 million bu corn Direct jobsFarrow-finish 800Or Wean-finish 242Or Beef feedlot 278
Source: Dr. John Lawrence, Head of ISU Beef CenterSource: Dr. John Lawrence, Head of ISU Beef Center
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/wisner/
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Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Jack M. Payne, director, Cooperative Extension Service, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa.