Ethan Mansfield - Southern Idaho Economic Trends

Wherewearenowandhowwegettowherewewanttobe?

EthanMansfieldSWIdahoRegionalEconomistIdahoDepartmentofLabor

EconomicDevelopmentinSouthCentralIdaho

Outline

• WhatDoesSIEDO’s6-countyregionlooklikenow?• Whatisitprojectedtolooklikeinthefuture?• WhataretheEconomicDevelopmentpolicychangesgoingforwardthatmightaffecttheregion’spositioninthefuture?

Source:EMSI

8.6

3.0

9.7

3.7

10

4.9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

UnemploymentRatesSIEDORegion,IdahoandUnitedStates

2007-2016

SIEDO Idaho US

JobsandWages• Population=169,737(10%ofIdaho)• Idaho=1,654,930

• TotalJobs=85,356(11%ofIdaho)• Idaho=784,609

• AverageWageperJob=$31,535• Idaho=$36,781

• PerCapitaIncome=$37,918• Idaho=$36,734

• 2011-2016JobGrowth=9,745• Idaho=85,459

• 2011-2015PercentJobGrowth=13%• Idaho=12%

Description 2016 Jobs 2016 Wages 2011 - 2016 Change

2011 - 2016 % Change

Expected Change

Competitive Effect

2016 Location Quotient

Crop and Animal Production 13,752 $31,249 988 7% (205) 1,194 13.31Government (incl. Public Ed) 11,296 $29,521 1,045 9% 522 523 0.86Manufacturing 9,333 $43,421 1,044 11% (79) 1,122 1.38Health Care and Social Assistance 9,153 $34,687 2,618 29% 1,768 849 0.85Retail Trade 8,836 $25,676 1,202 14% 617 585 0.99Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

5,648 $19,061 1,211 21% 817 394 1.05

Accommodation and Food Services 5,355 $13,346 865 16% 544 321 0.74Transportation and Warehousing 4,460 $38,227 626 14% 390 235 1.56Construction 3,472 $33,451 484 14% 345 139 0.75Wholesale Trade 3,342 $46,813 296 9% 288 8 1.02Other Services (except Public Administration)

3,229 $22,275 602 19% 279 322 0.79

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

2,254 $42,932 267 12% 372 (105) 0.41

Finance and Insurance 1,584 $44,655 25 2% 124 (99) 0.48

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 893 $12,055 138 15% 96 42 0.62

Information 765 $39,873 38 5% 23 15 0.49

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 678 $28,189 20 3% 37 (16) 0.49

Educational Services 464 $17,138 102 22% 67 36 0.22Utilities 463 $68,907 43 9% (1) 45 1.52Management of Companies and Enterprises

204 $55,973 3 1% 18 (15) 0.17

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

174 $31,876 10 6% 32 (23) 0.47

3.6

5.3

3.9

SIEDO

Idaho

UnitedStates

PercentPopulationChange2010-2015

25%

61%

15%

22%

64%

15%19%

66%

15%

0-14 15-64 65+

AgeDistribution2015

SIEDORegion Idaho UnitedStates

12%

22%

16%

SEIDO Idaho USA

PercentageChange60andOlder2010-2015

8%

27%

41%

17%

6%

8%

28%

43%

16%

5%

14-21 22-34 35-54 55-64 65-99

WORKFORCEBYAGECOHORT

SIEDO Idaho

SIEDORegion:• 23%oftheworking

populationisabovetheageof55

• 6%oftheworkingpopulationisabovetheageof65

IdahoState:• 21%oftheworking

populationisabovetheage55

• 5%oftheworkingpopulationisabovetheageof65

9% 9%

22%

14% 14%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0-14 15-64 65+

ProjectedGrowthByAgeGroup2015- 2025

SIEDORegion Idaho

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2025ProjectedJobGrowth* LaborForceGrowth**

WorkforceGap

13,687

5,101

8,586

NAICS Description 2016 Jobs 2015 - 2025 Change 2015 - 2025 % Change62 Health Care and Social Assistance 9,153 2,831 32%

56Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

5,648 1,808 36%

44 Retail Trade 8,836 1,437 17%72 Accommodation and Food Services 5,355 1,319 27%31 Manufacturing 9,333 1,111 12%90 Government (incl. Public Ed) 11,296 1,109 10%11 Crop and Animal Production 13,752 939 7%48 Transportation and Warehousing 4,460 790 19%

81 Other Services (except Public Administration)

3,229 649 21%

23 Construction 3,472 444 13%71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 893 324 47%42 Wholesale Trade 3,342 323 10%

54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

2,254 315 14%

61 Educational Services 464 135 32%51 Information 765 57 8%22 Utilities 463 47 10%52 Finance and Insurance 1,584 36 2%

21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

174 18 11%

55 Management of Companies and Enterprises

204 8 4%

53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 678 (12) (2%)

Migration

• StepOne:Whydopeoplemove?• MarketReasons

• JobOpportunities• Non-marketReasons

• Family• CulturalAmenities• NaturalAmenities• Schools

• BothMarketandNon-marketfactorsareEconomicReasons

HaveyouseenClif Bar’sInstagram?

• https://www.instagram.com/clifbarcompany/?hl=en• TheClif BarTeamBikerinTwinFalls

“ThePowerofPlace-making”

• Young,TalentedPeoplelikeDiversityin:• HousingStock• TransportationModes• PublicandPrivateSpaces• RestaurantsandBars• TrailUses• Population

WhatFactorsContributetoUnequalEconomicDevelopmentacrossSpace?• NaturalAmenities• CulturalAmenities(Schools)• HumanCapital(Workforce)(Schools)• Infrastructure(Schools)• Jobsfollowpeoplevs.peoplefollowjobs?• Moresupportforjobsfollowpeopleinruralareas;MagicValleyisexceptional

• TaxPolicy?

MikeBrown– LocalConstruct

• Anumberofcitieshavebeenabletoattracttalentbyqualityurbanplanning.Themostsuccessfulcitiesinthepastyears— I’dsaySeattleandPortlandareawesomeexamples,offthetopofmyhead,andNashville’sanothergoodexample— they’vereallybeenfocusedonhavingaprogressiveplanandcreatingalivabledowntown.Thosearethethingsthatattracttalent.

HowCanweHelp?• AttractandRetainTalentedWorkers(oranyworkers)• ChooseIdahocampaign• LocalPolicythatencouragesworkerstostayandattractsnewones(i.e.whatdoesyourtargetaudiencewantinacommunity?)• CreateTalentPipelineswithinthecommunity

• AmenitiesMattertoMigration• Whatdoesanewgenerationlookfor?

• Infrastructureisimportant• PhysicalInfrastructure

• Roads,Railways,AirService• VirtualInfrastructure

• Broadband

RyanArmbruster – Elam&Burke

• Ithinkacompletelook-seeatwhat[other]localcommunities…doisgoingtobetoughbecauseifyoulookatsomeoftheotherlegislativeprovisionsthathavecomeintoplayoverthelastfivetosixyears,it’sallgonetheotherway.Thelegislaturehascomedownandsaid[localcommunities]can’tregulateUber,theycan’tregulatefirearms,andit’sjustrestrictingwhatyouatthelocallevel,[you]whoarevotingforyourcouncilmenoryourcountycommissioners,candobecausethestatehaspreemptedsomanyoftheimportantpartsthatmakecommunitieslocal.

ThankYou!

• EthanMansfield• [email protected]

• Sources:EconomicModelingSpecialistsInternational;USCensusBureau,CountyQuickfacts andQuarterlyWorkforceIndicators;IdahoDepartmentofLabor,PopulationProjections.