Estmation of Hass Avocado 2010-2011 - mhaia.org · 2001 2100 1621 23,356 . 2101 2200 1245 . 19,702 2201 2300 970 15,629 . ... 2001 2101 2201 2301 4,612.57 ; trends of production by

PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA 2010-2011

JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR Bachelor of Statistic

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL

DISTRIBUTION STRATUM

BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC

TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY

TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

BACKGROUND

Undoubtedly the avocado industry is the most important economic activity in the National Agro and no say in the state of Michoacán, as is the Mexican avocado which ranks first worldwide in exports, it is also the organization APEAM the country's number one exporter of fruit. Given the importance that this industry poses to the country and the state is Michoacán’s largest producer by far, it is crucial to a harvest estimate by flowering of this precious fruit; This project already has a history that started from 2006, formally using a scientific methodology, this project each year provided reliable, accurate, timely and that had sufficient coverage in the region of Michoacán avocado. Where one of the immediate benefits of greater importance was: Having the confidence of knowing exactly how much fruit in stock available in the region, in order to contemplate the strategic planning, sales both overseas and domestically. Still another benefit that this project carried out with the seriousness that the organization represents APEAM is the absence of speculation fruit that does not benefit the industry in general.

On this background, and probably for many more reasons that both packers, exporters and producers interested in growing in many ways you can find, there is a proposal to give follow up this project and will continue to make efforts for the benefit of all those who one way or another and that some more and others less dependent on this great industry.

LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 2

 

 

     

 

JUSTIFICATION

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

• Implementa)on of scien)ficallybased methods

• Advance planning of marke)ngcosts and revenue

• Strategic Planning and Marke)ng• Efficient Inventory Management• An)cipate poten)al marketofferings

• Avoid fruit specula)on


 

 

 

 

 

 

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

GLOBAL OBJETIVES • Predict ahead and security available volumes avocado

produc)on, corresponding to different stages offlowering

• Iden)fy geographically, regions with higher produc)vityduring the year.

• Design a plan of ac)on to effec)vely es)mate theavocado harvest and mobiliza)on USA cer)ficate inMichoacán

• Iden)fy, quan)fy and analyze the plan)ngs actuallyobtained or will obtain the produc)on of avocado.

• Determine the produc)on performance of each area andtake correc)ve ac)on to increase this

• Get values from trend in produc)on per area cer)fied(Municipality)


AREA CERTIFIED FOR EXPORT TO USA BY MUNICIPALITY IN THE STATE OF MICHOACAN

APPLIED IN THIS STUDY AND ITS MAIN PROFILES

MUNICIPALITY SURFACE (ACRES) ACUITZIO 1,717.38 APATZINGAN 1,009.55 ARIO DE ROSALES 18,737.92 COTIJA 1,040.46 LOS REYES 4,250.92 MADERO 466.41 NUEVO PARANGARICUTIRO 10,303.31 PARACUARO 232.97 PERIBAN 9,546.65 SALVADOR ESCALANTE 16,325.46 TACAMBARO 9,342.94 TANCITARO 34,143.26 TANGAMANDAPIO 792.76 TARETAN 1,505.98 TINGAMBATO 2,411.00 TINGUINDIN 3,230.28 TURICATO 2,958.24 URUAPAN 14,173.50 ZIRACUARETIRO 1,425.85 TOTAL 133,614.86

LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

5

ACRES

8,001 8,895

12,565

17,61519,926 19,702

15,629

7,927

669 709 1021 1458 1554 1621 1245 970 416

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 5000

DISTRIBUTION OF ACRES AND ORCHARDS OF ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA LEVEL

AASL ORCHARDS 0 1600 669

1601 1700 709 8,895 1701 1800 1021 12,565 1801 1900 1458 17,615 1901 2000 1554 19,926 2001 2100 1621 23,356 2101 2200 1245 19,702 2201 2300 970 15,629 2301 5000 416 7,927

25,000 23,356

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0


AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

8,001

6

Orchard Number

DISTRIBUTION OF AREAS AND ORCHARDS BY STRATUM

Stratum (1)Surface by

Stratum Percentage

STRATUM 1 22,262.16 16.7% 5,207 STRATUM 2 47,265.03 35.4% 3,236 STRATUM 3 44,938.19 33.6% 1,051 STRATUM 4 19,149.48 14.3% 169

133,614.86 100.0% 9,663

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

60,000

47,265.0350,000 44,938.19

40,000 Orchard Number

30,00022,262.16 Surface by 19,149.48 Stratum 20,000

10,000 5,207 3,236 1,051 169-

STRATUM 1 STRATUM 2 STRATUM 3 STRATUM 4

(1)

Stratum 1: orchards with less than or equal to 7.41316 acres. Stratum 2: surface orchards with more than 7.41316 acres to 24.7105 acres. Stratum 3: surface orchards with more than 24.7105 acres to 74.1316 acres. Stratum 4: orchards with more than 74.1316 acres.


PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS: CROP TYPE

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

>> Crop Type << Percentage

Organic 16%

Conventional 84%

Total 100%

100%84%90%

80%70%60%50%40%30%

16%20%10%0%

Organic ConvenRonal


PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS: HUMIDITY SOURCE

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

>> Humidity Source << Percentage

Irrigation 47%

Temporal 53%

Total 100%

100%90%80%70%60% 53%

47%50%40%30%20%10%0%

IrrigaRon Temporal


PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS:

PLANTATION SISTEM

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

>> Plantation Sistem << Percentage

Real Square 71.00%

Triangle 29.00%

Total 100.00%

100.00%90.00%80.00% 71.00%70.00%60.00%50.00%40.00% 29.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%

Real Square Triangle


PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS:

DISASTERS

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

80.00%

70.00%

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%

>> Disasters<<

Frost

Hail

Strong Winds

Others

Without Disasters

Total

27.00% 24.00%

15.00%

Frost Hail StrongWinds


Percentage

27.00%

24.00%

15.00%

2.00%

32.00%

100.00%

32.00%

2.00%

Others Without Disasters

11

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION ADVANTAGED AND MARCEÑA FRUIT CERTIFIED AREA TO USA (AREA UPDATE)

694,724,708.24 Lb.

740,121,299.32Lb.

649,328,117.17Lb.

LOWER LIMIT UPPER LIMIT


AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

MAXIMUM PRODUCTION

TREND POUNDS

MAXIMUM PRODUCTION

TREND POUNDS/ACRE

PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY

TREND MEDIA TREND MEDIA MUNICIPALITY SURFACE PRODUCTION PRODUCTION

POUNDS POUNDS/ACRE

ACUITZIO 1,717.38 9,523,993.95 5,545.65 10,146,336.66 5,908.03

APATZINGAN 1,009.55 2,756,635.07 2,730.57 2,936,766.62 2,908.99

ARIO DE ROSALES 19,306.54 100,259,144.94 5,193.02 106,810,550.63 5,532.35

COTIJA 1,040.46 5,449,662.54 5,237.74 5,805,769.21 5,580.00

LOS REYES 4,239.80 12,608,702.09 2,973.89 13,432,614.19 3,168.22

MADERO 466.41 3,556,547.43 7,625.36 3,788,949.02 8,123.63

NUEVO SN JUAN P. 9,967.87 58,025,656.37 5,821.27 61,817,326.59 6,201.66

PARACUARO 232.97 1,337,082.66 5,739.28 1,424,453.95 6,114.31

PERIBAN 9,566.42 57,179,522.14 5,977.11 60,915,901.97 6,367.68

SALVADOR ESCALANTE 17,391.10 92,028,116.40 5,291.68 98,041,667.83 5,637.46

TACAMBARO 9,342.94 41,267,222.35 4,416.94 43,963,817.41 4,705.57

TANCITARO 34,309.32 163,190,937.68 4,756.46 173,854,603.71 5,067.27

TANGAMANDAPIO 792.76 5,686,017.42 7,172.41 6,057,568.63 7,641.09

TARETAN 1,505.98 8,688,158.22 5,769.10 9,255,883.48 6,146.08

TINGAMBATO 2,415.95 10,778,142.32 4,461.25 11,482,437.00 4,752.77

TINGUINDIN 3,230.28 13,778,142.49 4,265.31 14,678,471.35 4,544.02

TURICATO 2,947.12 17,415,819.54 5,909.43 18,553,851.38 6,295.58

URUAPAN 19,075.17 83,059,845.61 4,354.34 88,487,367.91

13

6,143.10

5,287.76

4,638.88

ZIRACUARETIRO 1,410.85 8,135,359.04 5,766.30 8,666,961.80

139,968.87 694,724,708.24 4,963.42 740,121,299.32


AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

200,000,000.00

180,000,000.00

160,000,000.00

140,000,000.00TREND MEDIA PRODUCTION 120,000,000.00

100,000,000.00

MAXIMUM80,000,000.00 PRODUCTION

TREND 60,000,000.00

40,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

-


TRENDS OF PRODUCTION BY STRATUM

TRENDS OF SURFACE BY PRODUCTION STRATUM ACRES (POUNDS)

STRATUM 1 4,315.02 STRATUM 2 5,138.85 STRATUM 3 4,302.27 STRATUM 4 6,982.50

22,262.16 47,265.03 44,938.19 19,149.48 133,614.86

96,061,730.89 242,887,967.84 193,336,355.52 133,711,195.08 665,997,249.33 4,984.45

80006,982.50

7000

6000 5,138.855000 4,315.02 4,302.274000

3000

2000

1000

0STRATUM 1 STRATUM 2 STRATUM 3 STRATUM 4


POUNDS PER ACRE

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

TRENDS OF PRODUCTION BY ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS 10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000

-

LEVEL AASL

0 1601 1701 1801 1901 2001 2101 2201 2301

AVERAGE PER ACRE

9,279

YIELD IN POUNDS PER

ACRE 1600 6,887.63 1700 9,278.67 1800 6,370.16 1900 4,612.57 2000 4,077.26 2100 4,389.52 2200 3,265.38 2300 4,942.67 5000 5,246.02

4,983.43


6,8886,370

4,6134,077 4,390

3,265

4,943 5,246

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 5000

AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

FINAL COMMENT IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE FOLLOWING:

HAVING ALREADY COMPLETED THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FIRST STAGE WHERE HAD WORKED WITH 133,614.86 ACRES REGISTERED UNTIL THEN, THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (SEMARNAP), GAVE THE INFORMED TO APEAM OF THE STOCK OF 6,354.01 ACRES MORE LAST TIME CERTIFIED FOR EXPORT TO USA, SO THAT THE ONLY INFORMATION THAT COULD BE CONVERTED RESULTS IS CONTAINED IN PAGES 17, 18 AND 19 YIELDED THE MOST RELEVANT PROJECT AND ARE BEING ESTIMATED TOTAL PRODUCTION IN THE STATE AND TRENDS OF THEIR PRODUCTION BY MUNICIPALITY.

ALL OTHER INFORMATION KEEPS RESULTS REPRESENT RESPONSES INITIALLY REGISTERED WITH 133,614.86 ACRES AREA AND WITH NO 139,968.87 ACRES.


AREA CERTIFIED

DISTRIBUTION AASL


BACKGROUND

JUSTIFICATION

GLOBAL OBJETIVES

ESTIMATION

GRAPHIC


TRENDS / STRATUM

PRODUCTION BY AASL

FINAL COMMENT

CROP TYPE

HUMIDITY SOURCE

PLANTATION SISTEM

DISASTERS

THANKS


Estmation of Hass Avocado 2010-2011 - mhaia.org · 2001 2100 1621 23,356 . 2101 2200 1245 . 19,702 2201 2300 970 15,629 . ... 2001 2101 2201 2301 4,612.57 ; trends of production by

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