Estimation of the size and vital rates of the Haredi (Ultra-orthodox) population in Israel for the purpose of long-range population projections Ari M. Paltiel Demography and Census Department Israel Central Bureau of Statistics 30/10/2013 1 PDF Creator - PDF4Free v2.0 http://www.pdf4free.com
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Estimation of the size and vital rates of the Haredi ... · growth of Haredi population, ... high fertility norms ... 2011. (Hebrew) PDF Creator - PDF4Free v2.0 . Current estimates
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Estimation of the size and vital rates ofthe Haredi (Ultra-orthodox) population in
Israel for the purpose of long-rangepopulation projections
Ari M. PaltielDemography and Census Department
Israel Central Bureau of Statistics
30/10/2013 1
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• Evaluation of the financial security of thesocial security system – long-rangeevolution of population size and age-sexstructure
• Need to assess long-range impact of rapidgrowth of Haredi population, as well asgrowth of female Arab population - bothare relatively poor and males have lowlabour force participation rates
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• Three base populations:1. Jews and Others without Haredim2. Haredi population3. Arabs
• Fertility and Mortality assumptions based onstochastic models, with High Medium and Lowforecasts corresponding to Mean andboundaries of 95% confidence intervals
• Zero net-migration, internationally and betweengroups
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• Internally diverse religious (“ultra-orthodox”)subculture, resisting modern culture and westernlifestyles, guided by authoritative Rabbis
• Live in self-segregated geographic communities• Separate, distinctive educational institutions• Early arranged marriages, high fertility norms• Economic based on private welfare institutions,
universal state benefits, and female employment• Distinct political parties protect way of life
through political bargaining
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Responses for “Religiosity” in the SocialSurvey, 2009
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Do you regard yourself as:Jewish Population 100%1. Ultra-Orthodox (“Haredi”) 8%2. Religious 12%3. Traditional - religious 13%4. Traditional - not so religious 25%5. Not religious, secular 41%
Non-Jewish Population 100%1. Very religious 8%2. Religious 44%3. Not so religious 27%4. Not religious 21%
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Analysis of TFR by religiosity of Jewishwomen in pooled Social Survey data
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Ahmad Hleihel, Fertility of Jewish and Moslem Women in Israel, by their Level of Religiosity, during 1979 – 2009, Working Paper No. 60. Central Bureau of Statistics, June2011. (Hebrew)
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Postscript: Estimates of the Haredi population aged 20and over from the Social Survey and from the Long-Range Population Projections project, 2002-2012.