6-9 October 2003, Lisbon 25 th EWGLAM and 10 th SRNWP Meetings Estimation of background error Estimation of background error statistics in ARPEGE 4D-var statistics in ARPEGE 4D-var Margarida Belo Pereira (Instituto de Meteorologia, Lisboa) Loïk Berre (Météo-France, Toulouse)
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Estimation of background error statistics in ARPEGE 4D-var
Estimation of background error statistics in ARPEGE 4D-var. Margarida Belo Pereira (Instituto de Meteorologia, Lisboa). Loïk Berre (Météo-France, Toulouse). Importance of background error estimative. - The analysis field results from a combination of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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6-9 October 2003, Lisbon 25th EWGLAM and 10th SRNWP Meetings
Estimation of background error statistics Estimation of background error statistics in ARPEGE 4D-varin ARPEGE 4D-var
Margarida Belo Pereira(Instituto de Meteorologia, Lisboa)
Loïk Berre(Météo-France, Toulouse)
6-9 October 2003, Lisbon 25th EWGLAM and 10th SRNWP Meetings
Importance of background error Importance of background error estimativeestimative
- The analysis field results from a combination of observations and background (short range forecast)- The weights given to the observations and to the background depend on error statistics- The background errors statistics determines the way as the information from observations is spread spatially- How to estimate the background error statistics?
6-9 October 2003, Lisbon 25th EWGLAM and 10th SRNWP Meetings
NMC method NMC method (operational in ARPEGE 4D-VAR)(operational in ARPEGE 4D-VAR)
1236tX
024tX
3636tX24
24tX0tX
ObsObsObsObs
024
2424 tta XXx 12
3636
36 ttf XXx
Analysis error
Forecast error
6-9 October 2003, Lisbon 25th EWGLAM and 10th SRNWP Meetings
Alternative to NMC method?Alternative to NMC method?
Ensemble Analysis MethodEnsemble Analysis Method
Perturbed observations (5)
Perturbed analysis (5)6h forecast
Data assimilation
Random numbers (5)+
observations
Perturbed Perturbed background (5)background (5)
Experiments Ensemble with five 4D-VAREnsemble with five 4D-VAR
cycles of the non-stretchedcycles of the non-stretched
version of ARPEGE modelversion of ARPEGE model
with T299 and 41 levelswith T299 and 41 levels
PeriodPeriod
1 of February to 24 of March1 of February to 24 of March