Estimating Smarter...Not Harder Using Construction Records to Improve the Accuracy, Precision, & Certainty of Estimating, Bid Analysis, & Post-Construction Analysis Jeff Hisem Administrator Joseph Anthony, P.E. Construction Cost Estimator Ohio Department of Transportation, Office of Estimating Transportation Estimators Association Annual Conference, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, October 2010
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Estimating Smarter...Not Harder Using Construction Records to Improve the Accuracy, Precision, & Certainty of Estimating, Bid Analysis, & Post-Construction.
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Estimating Smarter...Not HarderUsing Construction Records to Improve the Accuracy, Precision, & Certainty of Estimating, Bid Analysis, & Post-Construction Analysis
Jeff HisemAdministrator
Joseph Anthony, P.E. Construction Cost Estimator
Ohio Department of Transportation, Office of EstimatingTransportation Estimators Association Annual Conference, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, October 2010
Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia
Q. What is Unique about Ohio’s State Flag?A. It’s the Only State Flag That’s Not
Rectangular
Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia
Q. Ohio is Home to How Many U.S. Presidents?A. SevenQ. Name ThemA. Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A.
Garfield, Benjamin Harrison, William McKinley, William H. Taft, and Warren G. Harding
Wake-Up Exercises- Ohio Trivia
Q. Which Ohio College is One of Only Eight in The Country to Sport a Female Mascot?
A. The University of Akron’s Zippy the Kangaroo(Zippy has a Pouch)
Survey
• How many people in this room collect and use bid histories?
• How many people in this room collect and use construction data for cost-based estimating?
• Why not?
Engineer’s Estimate
Overview
Engineer’s Estimate
Bid AnalysisPost-
Construction Analysis
Two Measures of a “Good” Estimate
“Good” Estimating
PrecisionAccuracy
How Close to a “Fair and Reasonable” Value
Estimating Accuracy
Estimating in a Consistent Manner
Estimating Precision
Accuracy & Precision
Estimating in a “Fair & Reasonable” Manner Consistently
Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With Generic Data …
(Average Accuracy & Reasonable Precision)
Cost-Based Estimating
Cost-Based Estimating
Cost-Based Estimate Prepared With DOT Specific Construction Data…
(Good Accuracy, Good Precision)
Improving Cost-Based Estimating
• Collect Detailed Construction Records– Production Rates– Crew Counts– Equipment Counts
• Create a Construction Database Much Like a Bid History Database to Easily Retrieve This Information
Improving Cost-Based Estimating
• DOT Specific Construction Data– Fair & Reasonable Cost-Based Estimating– Makes Cost-Based Estimating Possible For More Items– Enhance Items That Already Use Cost-Based Estimating– Increases DOT Certainty
ODOT’s Challenges
• ODOT’s Current Software (CMS) Does Not Make Construction Data Readily Available– Read Through Inspector’s Daily Reports– Quality of Reports Varies from Inspector to Inspector
• CMS Software is Being Retired• Switching to SiteManager
Cost-Based Estimating ExampleUsing Authoritative Reference as Basis
• Two-Lane Asphalt Resurfacing– Minor Urban Arterial– 13,797 Vehicles / Day
DOT Specific Construction Data Improves Accuracy, Precision, and Certainty of all aspects of the estimating process from the development of the Engineer’s Estimate to Bid Analysis and beyond.