School of Geography FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032, 01.10.2007- 30.09.2009 What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas Estimating Ethnic Mortality Pia Wohland
Estimating Ethnic Mortality. Pia Wohland. ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032, 01.10.2007- 30.09.2009 What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas. Mortality input data for. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032, 01.10.2007- 30.09.2009What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas
EstimatingEthnic Mortality
Pia Wohland
Survival probability for ethnic groups in 432 local areas of the UK, by SYA age and 2 gender
UK:England 16 ethnic groups 352 LAWales 16ethnic groups 22 LAScotland 5 ethnic groups 32 LANorthern Ireland 12 ethnic groups 26 LA
Ethnic projection model by local areas (LA) of the UK
Mortality input data for
We have.....
Ethnic population estimates and projections in the UK
BUT
No ethnic specific mortality
Except:•Longitudinal Study•ONS ethnic group infant mortality (2008)
• United States
New Zealand
Is ethnic group mortality of importance?
Ajwani S, Blakely T, Robson B, Tobias M, Bonne M. 2003. Decades ofDisparity: Ethnic mortality trends in New Zealand 1980-1999. Wellington: Ministryof Health and University of Otago.
Arias E. United States life tables, 2004. National vital statistics reports; vol56 no 9. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2007.
Surrogate data?Self-reported health - a strong predictor of subsequent mortality.
(Burström and Friedlund 2001, McGee et al. (1999) Heistaro et al. (2001) Helwig-Larson et al. (2003) Franks et al. (2003) , Singh and Siahpush (2001)
•The relationship for men is different from that for women.
•Socioeconomic factors are important in explaining mortality variation across groups but self-reported health status still has a significant influence after controlling for them.
•There is variation between racial/ethnic groups in the self-reported health-mortality link but it is not huge.
•There is an important influence of immigrant generation with the first generation having better self-reported health and mortality than subsequent generations.
Census 2001 Question
Available for local areas, ethnic groups and age groups
School of GeographyFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
ALL PERSONDEATHS DATA
2001 Vital statistics
Countries & Local Authorities
POPULATION DATA
2001 Mid year Estimates
Countries & Local Authorities
ALL PERSON STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATIOS (SMR)
2001, UK Standard
Countries & Local Authorities
STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATIOS BY ETHNICITY
2001, UK Standard
Countries & Local Authorities
LIFE TABLES & SURVIVORSHIP PROBABILITIES BY ETHNICITY
2001 (Calendar Year)
Countries & Local Authorities
ALL PERSON RESIDENTS DATA
2001 Census Tables S16,S65
Countries & Local Authorities
ALL PERSON LIMITING LONG TERM ILLNESS DATA
2001 Census Tables S16,S65Countries & Local
Authorities
ALL PERSON STANDARDISED ILLNESS RATIOS
(SIR)
2001 , UK Standard
Countries & Local Authorities
RESIDENTS DATA BY ETHNICITY
2001 Census Tables ST 101, 107, 207, 318
Countries & Local Authorities
LIMITING LONG TERM ILLNESS BY ETHNICITY
2001 Census Tables ST 101, 107, 207, 318
Countries & Local Authorities
STANDARDISED ILLNESS RATIOS BY ETHNICITY
(SIR)
2001, UK Standard
Countries & Local Authorities
Method 1Using illness data from the census
Step 1 compute life tables for all UK LAs: mortality rates
Wales
120 to 135 (0)
110 to 120 (6)
100 to 110 (31)
90 to 100 (20)
80 to 90 (2)
70 to 80 (0)
Female SMR UKEngland
120 to 135 (5)
110 to 120 (40)
100 to 110 (93)
90 to 100 (151)
80 to 90 (88)
70 to 80 (13)
Northern Ireland
120 to 135 (0)
110 to 120 (8)
100 to 110 (6)
90 to 100 (11)
80 to 90 (2)
70 to 80 (0)
Scotland
120 to 135 (11)
110 to 120 (35)
100 to 110 (76)
90 to 100 (26)
80 to 90 (0)
70 to 80 (0)
Wales
120 to 135 (0)
110 to 120 (6)
100 to 110 (31)
90 to 100 (20)
80 to 90 (2)
70 to 80 (0)
Female SMR UKEngland
120 to 135 (5)
110 to 120 (40)
100 to 110 (93)
90 to 100 (151)
80 to 90 (88)
70 to 80 (13)
Northern Ireland
120 to 135 (0)
110 to 120 (8)
100 to 110 (6)
90 to 100 (11)
80 to 90 (2)
70 to 80 (0)
Scotland
120 to 135 (11)
110 to 120 (35)
100 to 110 (76)
90 to 100 (26)
80 to 90 (0)
70 to 80 (0)
Standardised mortality ratio (SMR)
Standardisation = Observed data / Excepted data
Standard populationUK
UK population mortality ratesillness rates
All group SMR as a function of SIRDifferences between home countries?