Estimates

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Bernard Aschwanden

www.publishingsmarter.com

[email protected]

Estimating Projects1

@aschwanden4stc

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Outline

@aschwanden4stc

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Management faces challenges due to poor or non-existing estimates

Benefits of accurate estimates, and how to get there. As part of this, we will explore: Reasons for estimating Estimate types How to build real estimates with numbers and deliverables Project execution based on developed estimates

Concrete estimate creation examples, components, and tools

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Thanks and…

@aschwanden4stc

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STC Alberta and the volunteersCohort Technical Communications

My audience

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Housekeeping and note taking

@aschwanden4stc

4Not all slides or topics

are equally weightedUse some, discard othersSlides speed variesQuestions? Ask any time!Good stuff? My wife did it

I’d love to claim errors/typos is on purpose… they isn’t, weren’t never, and ain’t; I’ll fix ‘em as I can…

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About your speakerPublishing Smarter: PresidentContent strategist, publishing

technologies expert, author, and geek-enough

Solves communications problems to help businesses be efficient and profitable

Society for Technical Communication Past President STC Associate Fellow All around great guy

(my wi

fe snu

ck

this i

n,

really

!)

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Before we begin

@aschwanden4stc

How long does it take To get downtown?

Now Noon 5pm 2am

To the airport To Edmonton To Toronto

By plane By train By car

How much does it cost? Big Mac combo New vehicle

Bicycle Compact car Loaded pickup Loaded Porsche

Condo downtown House in suburbs House 2 hours from

Calgary

These are ALL estimates

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Way underWay overJust right

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Estimates can go three ways

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Way under and…

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You likely overestimated thingsAdded unrealistic risks, dependenciesThought things would be more complex than

they are

All is not lost Use this as a baseline to improve Always keep the previous versions and do compares Given history and more clarity estimates become better

Consider the almighty cookbook as a great estimation tool

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When it’s done wrong…

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The “Big Dig” in Boston rerouted major parts of the inner traffic of the city Planning in 1982, expected to be done by 1998, cost of $2.8b Escalating costs, scheduling overruns, leaks, design flaws,

criminal arrests Actual work from 1991—2006, completion date Dec 31/07 Cost was $14.6b (adjusted to the time would be $8.1b in

1982) Overrun of 190% (so triple the price) Boston Globe estimates total will be $22b, paid off in 2038 Due to issues restitution of over $450m were paid (do your

own math based on all the numbers above, it’s still a lot of money)

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When it’s done right!

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Gotthard Tunnel: Switzerland (first built in 1882) In 1909 the railway took over the running of the tunnel In 1992 a referendum decided to build the

longest/deepest train tunnel in the world Trains will travel 155mph (250km/h) 35 miles (57km) in length and 2km deep 2400 people working in the dig 50 Celsius internal temps reached 28m tonnes of material excavated Project was 24 years (7 to just plan/prep) Construction estimated to take 17 years, cost $10.3b

(ran up to $12b)


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Reasons to estimate

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An estimate can identify

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Initially How much will it cost How long will it take Funding and resources needed

As you work If you are on track Where to shift resources Where to add/cut resources/expectations

Secure buy-in and funding at the start of a project

Establish general size, cost, duration expectations early on

Determine or refine project scope based on above

Purpose of an estimate pre-project13

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Purpose of an estimate during a project

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Agreed upon guideline of tasks, deliverables, and timelines

One document everyone can referenceAllows tracking of resources, milestonesCan be used to adjust what teams do if falling

behindAllows resources to be freed up if aheadA “you are here” for all teams

Create more accurate project estimates next time

Determine the right time/money to bill/expect

Talk clearly/numerically about why it took longer than expected–speak with authority

Justify expenditures (e.g. students, contractors), tools (licenses, upgrades), or services (trainers)

Purpose of an estimate post-project15

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Estimates help other teams

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Size, complexity mean that other teams can planHR can hire more people for larger projects, or deal with

reorgQA can come up with projections (i.e. lots of code, many

variables)ID can determine

How many people do they need How many writers How much hardware do they need What scripting is required

Manufacturing can scale up (or down) productionMany others in any org need this data to make decisions

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With an estimate you can plan

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Start early and come up with one question HOW MUCH WILL THIS COST (time, resources, dollars) WILL THIS DELIVER (what the client needs) Whatever…

ID number and type of resources neededID time required, and time to marketPut a time and cost on itDecide if it will be funded, or be cancelledContinued maintenance of existing projects

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For example, plan dependencies

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I cannot ID how many writers until I know how much content and how complex. I don’t know that until I know how many developers. I don’t know that until I know how many new features (and complexity). I don’t know that until management has an overall scope/plan/idea.

Estimates have dependenciesAllow for a ratio (for example, 1 QA per 2

devs, 1 writer per x features or # of dev)

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Two main types to explore

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Types of estimates

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Top Down

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Set a goal (i.e. “Upgrade HW & SW”)Major tasks get ID’d (often by Project Mgr)

then details get refinedBreak it into smaller chunks

Install server Upgrade OS Install most current software

Works when the goal is clear

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Bottom Up

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To begin, set a goal (i.e. “Upgrade HW & SW”)The entire team brainstorms all tasks; tasks

grouped into main categories For example, group a bunch of stuff into “Install server”

and others into “Upgrade OS” and the rest into “Install most current software”

People who DO the work collaborate to create estimates Task level Smaller components Add them up to come up with a final estimate

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Init iating the estimate

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Research phase

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Ball park estimate

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High level, no details “I think, based on experience, this is how much/long”

Input from different groupsCompare against past projects (baseline)

For example, ID talks to DEV, dev says “6 months” and ID knows from past projects that 6 months of DEV is about 3 months of ID

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Strawman schedule

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Called strawman as it has no spine, easy to blow away, change, bend based on input…but has some shape and definition

When it moves to the next level it may be changed/approved/denied

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General estimates on major del iverables, next level of detai l

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Early planning

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Detailing major tasks

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We knew we had to do upgrade Now we know that we have to do it on Mac/Win, but need to buy

new Win servers (and OS, training for IT, etc)We knew we had to install most current software

Now we know that we need to document “How To” and meet accessibility standards for the USA, and we need to translate to Chinese

More knowns, but also gone from 1 big task to (maybe) a few bigger ones, but with more internal definition

Funding likely given/denied based on thisDetails may not yet be final, but the company is

backing the next steps

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Brainstorm on topics (Research)

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In groupsWhat topics can we cover as “Intro to Word”Imagine having to prep a course to teach new

users how to effectively use MS WordDone as a groupCome up with ALL the things a new user

should know to work well

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Did you…

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Set a high level goal?Explore the function of the software?Discuss the goal of the user (the business goal)?

Hopefully you did ask “what docs do users create”? Word is used for newsletter, business plans, biz cards, letters,

user guides, admin guides, API, legal docs, medical docsID what the user needs to do to create content?Consider: Can you adapt this to “FrameMaker” or

“Google Docs” with ease, or is it too product based, too early


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Create a project plan

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All the details

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This is the one you commit to, and track against The others helped you talk to execs, secure funding,

set roadmap This one allows you to track against what you

promisedVery detailed

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Time estimates

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How long does each thing users should know take to teach? Is it something that they can be taught in 15m? 1hr? A

week?As a group, ID the time to deliver the training

(minutes/hours)

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Now, meet the reality (TOP DOWN)

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Bernard only has 3 hours to deliver trainingIncludes “hands-on” for ⅓ to ½ of the timeSTILL, working as a group, limit what we will

coverBased on experience/history, similar projects

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Once we have 3 hours (BOTTOM UP)

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Every piece from previous (for example, styles, tables, images) gets the detailed treatment

To do so, work in small teams Each may end up with a writer, an editor, a QA tester, a trainer

Come up with specifics for each module ID the goal, exercises people do How much concept/task/reference is delivered Break these into smaller bits (i.e., for tables: How to insert / format /

size / add / delete) How long do each of the bits take to teach?

Iterative approach to scope (adapt if tasks total 3+ hours)Creates an agreed upon plan of what we have

Everyone owns the estimates, agrees to estimates, and to schedules

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Now decide on a specific detail

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Pick a few short parts and estimate how long to writeUse ones you generally know (i.e., work with styles,

images, or tables)Estimate how long to create course materials

Concept to teach (what is the key takeaway: “Use styles”) Core task to teach that exact thing (with example: “Create

basic doc, assign Title, Heading 1, and Heading 2”) Related technical references (useful lookup: “List of template

styles”Pick one from the list, ID how long to teach it

For example, to teach “how to apply styles” and related info is 10 minutes, including “create sample content”

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Weekly, monthly, whenever

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Status

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Estimating amount done

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Compare during project and compare with goals (actual vs projection)

ID where there is slippagePlan for what to do

Scale back Add resources Delay delivery Parallel development

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Estimates don’t just die

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Use them to hold people accountableCompare against them the next timeUsed to track progress

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Once done, they have another use

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Explain delays ID why a schedule was off, estimates off Maybe forgot risks Sizing was off Unexpected change (layoffs, downsize) Missed components (oops, we needed to write more) Scope change (developer added new features)

Can be used for justification in overages

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Review them “the next time”

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Use the estimates as a baselineDon’t overwrite with the new “actual” but

refineContinue to do so to build the best estimates

you can

Effective estimates CAN be achieved with history

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Let’s put this to the test!

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Class project

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Plan to write (time estimate)

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Create the first full lesson, compare with the estimate

Adjust the estimate, create a second full lesson, compare

Compare your estimatesWhich was closest? Why?

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Compare expectations and real ity

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Development vs estimates

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“A Guide to Estimating Writing Projects”

@aschwanden4stc

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According to that one estimate sheet

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For instructor-led training, the time required is roughly 10:1 to 80:1

For a 10 minute module it should take 100 to 800 minutes, likely 1.5 to 13 hours

Basic content, most of us should know how to do itFor example, apply styles

From personal experience I can create this in 45 minutes to an hour

Let’s build and check in for milestones every 10 to 15 minutes

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Once we are done

@aschwanden4stc

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Adjust the estimates, do it againPick another basic topicLet’s build and check in for milestones every

10 to 15 minutes

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Move beyond 2 estimates

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Create the first full lesson, compare with the estimateAdjust the estimate, create a second full lesson,

compareAdjust, create third, compareAdjust, create 4th, compareAdjust, create 5th, compare

Compare five estimatesWhich was closest? Why? Expand this to others, such

as editors, reviewers. Can you find patterns?

Summary

What we have explored as well as ideas on what you can consider

next

Incorrectly estimating a project makes managing the project difficult. To correctly estimate costs you need a baseline to work with, accurate details on the time and costs of historical projects, and an easy way to track differences. The more accurate you are on estimation, the easier the overall management becomes, and the sooner you can identify issues that impact the bottom line.

Beginning with an overview of estimating a documentation project we explore what to estimate and how to come up with initial numbers. Then we track the actual time and cost involved, automate the tracking of differences, and explore how to estimate more accurately the next time. Every round of estimating helps establish a better baseline.

Using simple to follow, but real-world based examples, we create a complete estimate (take it with you at the end of the session!). We compare ways to estimate (start with a deadline, ID what you can do OR identify the things to do and set an end-date), discuss why estimates are important, and explore how to deal with setting scope (and how to manage changes to scope) when estimating.

Leave with a concrete example of an estimate that you help build, a good understanding of the components of an estimate, and the tools to more accurately estimate your projects.

For those who have their own business (or are considering one) the estimate provides a good way to work with clients, set expectations, and see where you are with projects (especially when it comes to billing!).

For those who work in a business the estimate provides a way to justify resource allocation, defend the need for more (people, time, resources), and establish a track record of success (great at performance review time, or when starting to work with new teams).

In closing, remember48


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More reading

http://www.writingassist.com/pdfs/EstimatingWritingProjects.pdf

https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Technical_writing/Cost_and_schedule_estimating

http://informationdevelopers.blogspot.com/2012/09/time-estimation-method-for-technical.html

http://www.sundarnadimpalli.com/2015/03/04/estimating-effort-for-technical-writing-projects/











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Even more to read

@aschwanden4stc

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http://www.tech-writer.net/estimatingtechwritingjobs.html

http://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Technical_writing/Cost_and_schedule_estimating

http://www.klariti.com/technical-writing/Successful-Documentation-Projects--1.shtml











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Publishing Smarter helps clients


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Follow up contact information

905 833 8448 (Eastern Time)

[email protected]

www.linkedin.com/in/bernardaschwanden

@aschwanden4stc

www.publishingsmarter.com

Estimates

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