ESPM/IB/ERG 205 Instructors: Wayne Getz & Zack Powell Course Outline: Handout Course Website: The site is on BSPACE with a back up at http://www.cnr.berkeley.edu/~getz/205Fall07 Required Text: Otto and Day, 2007. A Biologist’s Guide to Mathematical Modeling in Ecology and Evolution, Princeton UP. Programming Languages/Software: Your choice: MATLAB, R+, other. Word processing with equation editor untility, spread sheet with graphics, drawing (could use power point). Computers: computers available in lab, but best solution to use your own laptop with installed software. Lab Assignments: Must be submitted through BSPACE site on time to get graded--missing assignments get 0 added to cumulative score 1
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ESPM/IB/ERG 205Instructors: Wayne Getz & Zack Powell
Course Outline: HandoutCourse Website: The site is on BSPACE with a back up at http://www.cnr.berkeley.edu/~getz/205Fall07Required Text: Otto and Day, 2007. A Biologist’s Guide to Mathematical Modeling in Ecology and Evolution, Princeton UP.
Programming Languages/Software: Your choice: MATLAB, R+, other. Word processing with equation editor untility, spread sheet with graphics, drawing (could use power point).
Computers: computers available in lab, but best solution to use your own laptop with installed software.
Lab Assignments: Must be submitted through BSPACE site on time to get graded--missing assignments get 0 added to cumulative score
Individual (Lagrangian) versus population (Eulerian) levels of description
Mechanistic versus phenomenological
Theoretical versus empirical
3
Components of modelsvariables:
independent (time t, space (x, y))
dependent on time (x1(t), x2(t), ... ), on space & time (z(x,y,t)...)
parameters (a, b, c, ...)
equations
principle of parsimony
principle of hierarchical epistemology
4
Steps to modeling (Box 2.1 modified!)Formulate the question
what do you want to know?state question as precisely as possible
Determine basic ingredientsstart with simplest sufficient biological description:
define variablesidentify flows (draw flow diagram)list variables influencing flows describe flow rate forms phenomenologically (e.g. growth rate is increasing but saturating function of resource intake)
Translate into equations write down mathematical equations with general flow designators fi (i=1,2,3...)develop expressions for fi that conform to phenomenological descriptions
5
E.g. Growth of a populationFormulate the question
what do you want to know?the size of a population at various times in the future?state question as precisely as possiblewhat are the fundamental process leading to population change and how do they combine to determine the trajectory of a spatially homogeneous population over time?
Determine basic ingredientsstart with simplest sufficient biological description:
define variablesx(t): density of a closed population at time t
variables and flows (a la Stella or Berkeley Madonna)
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Formulate equation
x(t)
influences on flows
b d
f1=bx f2=dx
x(t +1) = x(t)+ bx(t) − dx(t)
Discrete: Pop(t+1)=Pop(t)+births-deaths
dxdt
= bx − dx
Continuous: Pop rate of change=birth rate - death rate
dxdt
= bx − dx
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Elaborate: density-dependent death rate
x(t)
influences on flows
b d
f1=bx f2=dx
dxdt
= bx − dx
Continuous: Pop rate of change=births rate - death rate
d = d0 + d1x⇒ f2 = d0x + d1x
2
dxdt
= bx − d0x − d1x2 = (b − d0 )x 1−
d1xb − d0
⎛⎝⎜
⎞⎠⎟
Logistic: r=b-d0 and K= d1/(b-d0)9
Deriving the logistic from a “metaphysiological” point of view
dxdt
= bx − dx
1
Resource extraction functions, density dependence, andcarrying capacity: a metaphysiological viewpoint.
•Getz, W. M. 1991. A unified approach to multispecies modeling. Natural ResourceModeling 5:393-421.•Getz, W. M. 1993. Metaphysiological and evolutionary dynamics of populations exploitingconstant and interactive resources: r-K selection revisited. Evol. Ecol. 7:287-305•Getz, W. M. 1994. A metaphysiological approach to modeling ecological populations andcommunities. In: S. A. Levin (ed), Frontiers in Mathematical Biology (Lecture Notes inBiomathematics, Vol. 100), Springer-Verlag, New York, pp 411-442•Getz, W. M., 1996. A hypothesis regarding the abruptness of density dependence and thegrowth rate of populations. Ecology 77:2014-2026•Getz, W. M. and N. Owen-Smith, 1999. A metaphysiological population model of storage invariable environments. Natural Resource Modeling 12:197-230•Getz, W. M., 1999. Population and Evolutionary Dynamics of Consumer-ResourceSystems. In: J. McGlade (ed.), Theoretical Ecology: Advances in Principles andApplications, Blackwell Science Limited, Oxford, England, pp 194-231
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Rfextraction
process
f(R,x)
x g(f)
growthprocess
R: resource; x population density f(R,x): per capita resource extraction rateg(f): per capita growth rate
Population growth rate = per capita growth rate X population density
dxdt
= xg( f ) = xg( f (R,x)) = xG(R, x) ; G = g f
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R: resourcex population density
dxdt
= xg( f (R, x))
dxdt
= xg( f (R, x)) = xr 1−m
f (R,x)⎛⎝⎜
⎞⎠⎟= xr 1−
m b + cR + x( )aR
⎛⎝⎜
⎞⎠⎟= hx 1−
xK
⎛⎝⎜
⎞⎠⎟
h == r 1− ma
⎛⎝⎜
⎞⎠⎟
, K =(a − m)cm
R −ba
f(R,x): per capita resource extraction rate
f (R, x) = aRb + cR + x
0
1
0 25 50 75 100R
f
decreasing x
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
0 25 50 75 100
g
fm
g(f): per capita growth rate
g( f ) = r 1−mf
⎛⎝⎜
⎞⎠⎟
m: metabolic breakeven point
0
12
We have derived the logistic in 2 ways each with an entirely different interpretation!
dxdt
= bx − dx
Which is correct?What does this mean?
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Steps to modeling cont’d (Box 2.1)Verify your equations
check units of parameterscheck dimensions of expressionscheck dimensions balance in the equations
Analyze the equationsanalytical results where possible (equilibria, stability)graphical analyses where possible (phase plane; null isoclines)carry out simulations and make various plotscarry out sensitivity studies
Checks and balances verify your outputhave you addressed the questions you formulated
Relate results back to question have you answered your questiondo the answers make sense? have you learned something new?should you elaborate the model to explore more deeply?do results suggest experiments? identify gaps in understanding?
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The logistic model can be extended in many ways:e.g. Lotka-Volterra prey-
predator systems and beyond to trophic cascades
dxdt
= bx − dx
15
Prey-Predator model (L-V)Formulate the question
what do you want to know?what is the dynamic nature of prey-predator interactions?state question as compactly as possibledo prey-predator interactions support sustained oscillations?
Determine basic ingredientsstart with simplest sufficient biological description:
define variablesx(t): density of predator populations at time ty(t): density of prey populations at time t