ESA SW Pilot Project The ESA Space Weather Pilot Project Status in November 2005 A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. Daly Space Environments and Effects Analysis.

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

The ESA Space Weather Pilot ProjectThe ESA Space Weather Pilot ProjectStatus in November 2005Status in November 2005

A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. DalySpace Environments and Effects Analysis Section,

ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands

C. de Matos and F. OngaroEUI-A, ESA-HQ, Paris

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Historical Background

• 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather.• 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe.• 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop.• 1999-2001: ESA feasibility study on a Space Weather Programme.• 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team.• 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management board =>Rejected

(Quantification of value of service for sustainability and need more scientific basis).• 2001: Start preparation of ESA-PP, COST724, and other…• 2003: ESA SW pilot-project formally starts.• 2003: COST 724 starts.• 2005: COST 296 starts.

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Where we stand now in Nov 2005 • Organisation of the scientific community (through COST 296, Organisation of the scientific community (through COST 296,

COST724).COST724).• Coordinated service investigation/evaluation in Europe (To end: April

2004).• Options for next step:• - NoC for spacecraft effects• - ERA-net for science• - overall coordinations????

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Coordinated Service Investigation

• Space Weather European Network (SWENET)Space Weather European Network (SWENET):– Network of 26 service development activities (SDAs): 16 ESA co-funded SDA

applications activities began on 1st April 2003 + 10 independently funded activities. Continuously increasing...

– Common support (portal, service provision, data access), evaluation method, modelling.ommon support (portal, service provision, data access), evaluation method, modelling.– Represents ~5 M€ investment incl. 2 € from ESA GSP and rest from other ESA

prog., national agencies, private investments,.... • Independent benefit assessmentIndependent benefit assessment is establishing the economic and other

benefits of the services (Contract with SEA).• Interaction with EC – Ongoing (cf COST, EUCORES, FP6).• ESA participation to ISES (International Space Environment Services- under IUGG).

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

SWENET as a sample for study

• Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or developers Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or developers from 9 member states.from 9 member states.

• Broad community of users (incl. military).Broad community of users (incl. military).• About 90% of the pilot project activities addressed three main types of effects About 90% of the pilot project activities addressed three main types of effects

which are:which are:1.1. External geomagnetic fieldExternal geomagnetic field2.2. Ionospheric perturbations of radio signal (comms, nav).Ionospheric perturbations of radio signal (comms, nav).3.3. Direct space environment effects on spacecraft.Direct space environment effects on spacecraft.

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

External geomagnetism in Europe• Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military.Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military.• SW Service: ~1-3 M€; ground based magnetometers + ACE. • 10 Y Market trend: remains of same order.• Space advantage: not needed for ground effects, speculative for

global scale and/or forecast, major for Solar wind.• => Case for a SW monitor?

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Ionospheric effect on radio signal in Europe• Users: HF users (Users: HF users (airlines, military and civilian security applications) and airlines, military and civilian security applications) and

GPS single frequency (~all) and dual frequency (geological surveying for GPS single frequency (~all) and dual frequency (geological surveying for prospecting, military, off-shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport prospecting, military, off-shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport approach)approach)..

• SW Service: ~10 M€/Y, Ionosonde, dual frequency networks. • 10 Y Market Trend: significant growth (Galileo, +down stream growth).• Space advantage: global coverage, (possibly) forecast.• => Case for a LEO constellation?

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Direct effects on space systems in Europe

• Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users, manned Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users, manned space flight.space flight.

• SW Service: ~10 M€/Y; using US NOAA, NASA data. • 10 Y Market Trend: might be significant growth (new techno,

manned space flight).• Space advantage: major (no serious alternative).• => Case for monitoring in critical regions?

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Space Infrastructure Options

Measurement Users Hitchhiker Dedicated

SW All - S/C-A at L1

Ionosphere Com, Nav

METOP S/C-B LEO const

Rad GEO S/C MSG MSG

Rad GTO S/C X-HH S/C–C GTO

Rad MEO Nav Galileo x 5 Galileo x 5

Rad LEO S/C METOP METOP

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Discussion of space elements options

Option 0: No changeOption 0: No change

• User satisfaction: through US dominated service (+ possibly User satisfaction: through US dominated service (+ possibly hardware elements to support ESA missions on a case by case hardware elements to support ESA missions on a case by case basis and with difficulties).basis and with difficulties).

• Cost: ~1-5 M Cost: ~1-5 M € /Y (for ESA) + 10-100 M /Y (for ESA) + 10-100 M€ /Y (for non-ESA). /Y (for non-ESA).

• Market and related R&D: non space related market durably Market and related R&D: non space related market durably disconnected from ESA; Slow development unless a new disconnected from ESA; Slow development unless a new leadership and funding sources appear (COST724 ?).leadership and funding sources appear (COST724 ?).

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Discussion of options

Option 1: Hitchhikers on planned missionsOption 1: Hitchhikers on planned missions

• User satisfaction: partial near real-time service but poor coverage.User satisfaction: partial near real-time service but poor coverage.

• Cost: ~10 MCost: ~10 M€ /Y (for ESA) . /Y (for ESA) .

• Market and related R&D: efficiently linked to ESA for S/C, Comm and Market and related R&D: efficiently linked to ESA for S/C, Comm and

Nav. via a programme or an inter-directorate activity; rapid improvement Nav. via a programme or an inter-directorate activity; rapid improvement

expected upstream and downstream.expected upstream and downstream.

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Discussion of options

Option 2: Hitchhikers + dedicated spacecraftOption 2: Hitchhikers + dedicated spacecraft

• User satisfaction: near real-time service with global coverage and forecasting User satisfaction: near real-time service with global coverage and forecasting

capabilities.capabilities.

• Cost: ~200 MCost: ~200 M€/5 Y (through ESA). (through ESA).

• Market and related R&D: fully linked to ESA via a SW programme (e.g. like Market and related R&D: fully linked to ESA via a SW programme (e.g. like

Meteosat or GMES); improvement expected.Meteosat or GMES); improvement expected.

ESA SW Pilot ProjectESA SW Pilot Project

Conclusion • SWPP has shown evidence of interest from users (incl. industry).SWPP has shown evidence of interest from users (incl. industry).• Market now within 10-100 M Market now within 10-100 M €/Y in Europe and rely on US or ground based data..• Significant market potential growth might be expected for Nav and S/C (incl. manned space Significant market potential growth might be expected for Nav and S/C (incl. manned space

flight).flight).• Various space elements options are possible with investment commensurate with market

size.• Refinement of market scenarios and cost benefit analysis is in progress (contract with SEA).• Possible undertaking for space elements need to be discussed after ESA council in

December (relevant to next council in 2007-2008).• S/C effect coordination may be taken care of by a NoC (TEC proposal).S/C effect coordination may be taken care of by a NoC (TEC proposal).• Ionospheric effect coordination is partly covered by COST 296.Ionospheric effect coordination is partly covered by COST 296.• Fundamental science of space weather is covered by COST 724, ILWS, E-STAR (TBC) and Fundamental science of space weather is covered by COST 724, ILWS, E-STAR (TBC) and

a possible ERA-Net.a possible ERA-Net.• Maintenance of overall coordinating structures (SWWT & SWENET) is under discussion

(Lefeuvre proposal to ESA).