ESA-listed Snake River Salmon: What’s the link to Snake River dams? John G. Williams NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center Seattle [email protected]Conference on Large Scale Water Infrastructure: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES ON LARGE DAMS 3-5 November 2006 - New Haven, Connecticut, USA
42
Embed
ESA-listed Snake River Salmon: What’s the link to Snake River dams?
ESA-listed Snake River Salmon: What’s the link to Snake River dams?. Conference on Large Scale Water Infrastructure: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES ON LARGE DAMS 3-5 November 2006 - New Haven, Connecticut, USA. John G. Williams NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center Seattle - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Columbia River – Sockeye Salmon - Lake Wenatchee/Okanogan RiverChinook salmon - Upper spring-run, Upper summer-fall run, Middle spring-run, Deschutes River summer-fall run, LowerSteelhead - Upper, Middle, and Lower Coho salmon - LowerChum salmon - Lower
Upper Willamette River - Chinook salmon; Steelhead
Snake River Trap to Bonneville Dam TailracePer-project expansion in some years
1965 1970 1975 19800.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1995 2000 2005
Nodata
Spring-summer Chinook
Steelhead
58.1%
37.3%
Outmigration year
Hyd
rosy
stem
sur
viva
l
Other significant changes
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
102030405060708090
100110120
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
Change in PacificDecadal Oscillation
to warm phase
Year
1000
s of
adu
lt re
turn
s
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
102030405060708090
100110120
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
Change in PacificDecadal Oscillation
to warm phase
to cold phase
Year
1000
s of
adu
lt re
turn
s
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
1
2
3
4
5
Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon
Change in PacificDecadal Oscillation
to warm phase
to cold phase
Year
SA
R (
catc
h + e
scap
emen
t)
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 20070.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
*
* Incomplete adult returns
In-river survial
SAR
Outmigration year
Hyd
rop
ow
er s
yste
m s
urv
ival
SA
R (%
)Snake River wild spring-summerChinook salmon
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
R2 = 0.03P = 0.61
Wild spring-summer Chinook salmon
Hydropower system survival
SAR (%
)
Estimated fall chinook salmon returnsto Lower Granite Dam
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Natural fishin 2005estimated
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
Total return
Year
Nat
ural
fis
h re
turn
Total adult return
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
100200300400500600700800900
10001100120013001400
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
SR wild s-s Chinook salmon
SR sockeye salmon
Adult return year
Escap
em
en
t to
up
per
SR
dam
Escap
em
en
t to u
pp
er S
R d
am
Context
Stocks naturally fluctuate
Baumgartner et al. 1992 CalCofi
Schindler et al. 2006 CJFAS
Chance (1973) - information from early pioneer diaries:
In 1811 and in the late 1820s the middle Columbia River (between the confluence of the Snake River and Kettle Falls) had salmon populations so low that settlersand Native Americans relied on horseflesh for survival
0
1
2
3
4
5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year of ocean entry
SA
R (
%)
observed
forecast
90% CI
Scheuerell and Williams 2005 Fisheries Oceanography
R2=0.71
Wild fish escapement aboveupper Snake River dam
19601965197019751980198519901995200020050.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Steelhead
S-S Chinook
Outmigration Year
SA
R(3
-yr.
ru
nn
ing
ave
rag
e)
Wild fish escapement aboveupper Snake River dam
19601965197019751980198519901995200020050.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5 Steelhead
S-S Chinook0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
5-year median harvest rate
Outmigration Year
SA
R(3
-yr.
ru
nn
ing
aver
age)
Harvest rate
Estimated fall chinook salmon returnsto Lower Granite Dam
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
Year
Nat
ural
fis
h re
turn H
arvest rate
Harvest rate
Do dams effect fish?
Do dams effect fish?Could we harvestadults at higher rateswithout dams?
Do dams effect fish?Could we harvestadults at higher rateswithout dams?Is recovery limited by dams?
If the evidence was clear, the debate would not rage