ERTAC 1
Jan 04, 2016
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ERTAC
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PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
1. Process Overview and Timelines2. Inputs3. Algorithm Details4. Results5. Outstanding issues
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1. PROCESS OVERVIEW AND TIMELINES
a. What is the ERTAC Growth Committee?
b. Criteria for product
c. Committee structure
d. Progress & Timeline
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WHAT ARE WE TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH ?
Develop Methodology to Create EGU FY Emission Inventories that meets certain criteria: Conservative predictions of unit activity Relies primarily on state knowledge of unit
retirement, fuel switching & controls Can be re-run iteratively to look a variety of
scenarios Transparent Inexpensive Relies on base year activity data Flexible
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ERTAC EGU GROWTH
Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee
Collaboration: NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan
states Industry Multi-jurisdictional organizations
Why are certain states in yellow? Are they participating in ETAC EGU?
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SUBCOMMITTEES AND CO-CHAIRS
ERTAC EGU Growth Committee Co-chairs: Laura Mae Crowder, WV DEP Bob Lopez, WI DE Danny Wong, NJ DEP
Four Subcommittees and Leads: Implementation/Mark Janssen, LADCO: Create logic
for software Growth/Bob Lopez, WI & Laura Mae Crowder, WV:
Regional specific growth rates for peak and off peak Data Tracking/Wendy Jacobs, CT: Improve default
data to reflect state specific information Renewables & Conservation Programs/Danny
Wong, NJ & Laura Boothe, NC: Characterize programs not already included in growth factors
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STATE INVOLVEMENT
Regional lead identified per RPO to coordinate their state review of model and inputs.
EGU representative identified in each state for QA of the input files.
These representatives will also review the output to provide guidance
If Future Year (FY) emission goals are not met given known controls, states will indicate what strategy will be applied to meet the goal.
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PROGRESS SO FAR ....
Model Development: Methodology created, documentation crafted Preprocessor & projection running on Linux and
Windows (GA, VA, MARAMA, IN, NJ, OTC) Developing postprocessing software
Estimating Growth in Generation: Growth rates and regions defined Updating with current Annual Energy Outlook
(AEO) 2012
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PROGRESS SO FAR ....
Input File Development: Unit file and future controls file reviewed by
states Cap files are being converted to use CAIR caps Further state input ongoing
Results: Ran through first iterations of the postprocessor Distributed to member states for review
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ERTAC TIMELINE
September - October, 2012• Initial multi-state test runs• Review output, revise and rerun• Present results to states for comment
November, 2012 • Present to full ERTAC Committee• Present model and results to USEPA
Future tasks• Develop AEO 2012 growth factors• Develop new base year 2011
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DATA IMPORTATIONa. Inputs
b. Preprocessing
c. Growth Rates
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ERTAC INPUTS
Starting Point: BY CAMD activity data Gross load hourly data, unit fuel, unit type,
location Units categorized by:
Fuel Type [Boiler Gas, Oil, Simple Cycle, Combined Cycle, Coal]
Region [AEO regions (e.g. MACE, LILC, WOMS)]
States review provides known new units, controls, retirements, fuel switches, etc
EIA AEO growth factors NERC peak growth factors
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PREPROCESSING FUNCTIONS
Data Edit Checks Unit availability file Controls file Growth rates file BY hourly CAMD data
Removes non-EGUS Determines hourly temporal hierarchy
Based on regional hourly GL Important for load distribution and growth rates
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PREPROCESSING FUNCTIONS
Assigns hourly usage profile for FY to new units Assesses partial year reporting units Creates unit hierarchies for growth distribution For every hour, calculates load specific values by
region and fuel/unit type Retired generation New unit generation Existing generation
Calculates “non peak” growth rates
“Load specific values” seems vague, what do we mean by that?
Add page numbers
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GROWTH RATESPeak GR = 1.07Annual GR = 0.95
Transition hours of 200 & 2,000Non Peak GR = 0.9328 (calculated)
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GROWTH RATES (GR)
Hour specific growth rates allow program to adjust temporal profile of unit based on regional and fuel/unit type hourly growth profiles Resulting FY profile might different from BY
Provides ability to understand effects of peak episodic GR and control programs on air quality
AEO Growth combined with NERC peak growth Peak Growth – First 200 hour in hierarchy Transition growth – 200-2000 hours in hierarchy Non-peak growth – last remaining hours in hierarchy
out to 8760 hours. Combined factor is further adjusted to account
for: Retirements & new units.
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THE EVOLUTION OF GROWTH RATES FROM AEO2010 ANNUAL TO HOURLY
AEO2010 (by region and fuel)
NERC (by region and fuel)
Peak growth - Applied to first 200 hours in hierarchyTransition growth - Applied to hours between 200 and 2000 in hierarchyNon peak growth - Applied to remianing hours in hierarchy
Final hourly growth
Adjusted to account for retirements and
new units operating in that
hour
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3. ALGORITHM DETAILSa. Regional modularity
b. Adjusted FY Growth Rates
c. Excess generation pool
d. Generic units
e. New Unit Utilization
f. Spinning Reserve
19REGIONAL MODULARITY Each ERTAC region analyzed independently Reserve analyzed on a regional basis Algorithm determines if capacity has been
met for each hour for the region and fuel/unit type
Use new units
For all ERTAC Regions
For all Fuel/Type Bins
Analyze capacity versus demand
Assign generation
Spinning Reserve
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ADJUSTED FUTURE YEAR GROWTH RATES (AFYGR), HOUR SPECIFIC
For every region and fuel/unit type, each hour has a variable value for: Total FY Load (Hour Specific GR * BY Load=FY
Gen) Total Retired Generation (RetGen) Total New Unit Generation (NU Gen)
GR for each hour adjusted before application to existing unit hourly BY loads!
AFYGR = (FY Generation – NU Gen) (BY Generation – RetGen)
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EXCESS GENERATION POOL
If unit growth exceeds capacity Unit is limited to capacity Demand beyond capacity added to the excess
generation pool for that hour/region/ fuel/unit type bin
The pool is distributed to other units in unit allocation hierarchy order Units receive power up to optimal threshold or
max capacity in two distribution loops Power distribution ceases when pool is depleted
or all units are at capacity (generic unit must be created to meet demand)
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NEW GENERIC UNITS Added to meet demand Utilization determined on a fuel/unit type basis,
similar to new state supplied units Receive unmet demand Size/location of generic units adjustable FY temporal profile assigned by region and
fuel/unit type If a generic unit is added, the allocation
hierarchy is recalculated and the loop begins at the first hour
First/next hour in the hierarchy
Does capacity meet demand?
Add generic unit
Reallocate unit order
Begin at first hour in the hierarchy
Y
N
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NEW UNIT UTILIZATION New units receive generation from the excess
generation pool Annual power production limited by default or
state input Temporal profile based on similar unit (mimic) —
program allows user to change the “mimic” unit New units (generic and state supplied) are
high in utilization relative to other similar units because assumed to be: Very efficient Very clean
Variables assigned to region and fuel/unit type characteristics are adjustable
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SPINNING RESERVE CHECK
Following assignment of generation Check if reserve capacity is available for
each hour in each region If in any hour there is not reserve capacity
equal 100% of the capacity of the largest unit operating of any fuel type, a flag is raised
Determine reserve capacity needs for that hour
Is unused capacity > reserve capacity ?
Y
N Alert: More capacity needed
First/next hour
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RESULTSa. Output
b. Examples
c. Runtime
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OUTPUT/RESULTS
Future year hourly activity Heat input (mmbtu) Gross load (MW) SO2 emissions (lbs) NOx emissions (lbs)
File includes 8,760 hours for each: Existing unit that is not retired New state supplied unit New generic unit created by the code
Summary files Post-projection processing: graphs, more
summaries, etc
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OUTPUT FROM ERTAC EGU V1
Unit level Overall output
28EXAMPLE: COAL FIRED EXISTING UNIT, 800 MWANNUAL GR=1.018, PEAK GR=1.056, NONPEAK GR=1.012
29EXAMPLE: COAL FIRED EXISTING UNIT, 800 MW (ZOOM IN VIEW)ANNUAL GR=1.018, PEAK GR=1.056, NONPEAK GR=1.012
Something wrong with the X axis
30EXAMPLE: COAL FIRED EXISTING UNIT, 800 MW – SO2 CONTROLANNUAL GR=1.018, PEAK GR=1.056, NONPEAK GR=1.012
31EXAMPLE: COMBINED CYCLE NEW UNIT, 300 MWANNUAL GR= 0.904, PEAK GR=1.2, NONPEAK GR=0.901
32EXAMPLE: SIMPLE CYCLE EXISTING UNIT, 53 MWANNUAL GR=1.39, PEAK GR=1.549, NONPEAK GR=1.377
33POST-PROJECTION PROCESSING GRAPHICAL OUTPUT – PAGE 1 EXAMPLE
34POST-PROJECTION PROCESSING GRAPHICAL OUTPUT – PAGE 2 EXAMPLE
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VER. 1 SUMMARY RESULTS – ALL REGIONS
Heat Input
SO2 Emissions
NOX Emissions
Generation
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IN SUMMARY
The model has been built Inputs are being refined Output has been generated Work is needed to evaluate output
Partial Year Reporters Generic units
New growth factors based on AEO 2012 are needed
Scenarios can be built to evaluate policy