Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent

8/15/2019 Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent

1/30

5ta kddukiPpredh vkiuf edvfstedh `ldhrfss

• Kprei 0 , ?=; 3 • Iks Rfhks, DR

Bl`usedh Xafrf Ltafrs Krfd―tFre` Kdcfrsfd, Xfstfrd Ptkdckrc

www.RkiufEdvfstedh@ldhrfss.`ln


2/30

• Cevfrsebefc ildh/salrt budc weta 3= ildh plseteldskdc 6=+ salrt plsetelds

• Xf ken tl prlvecf `kpetki kpprf`ekteld lvfr kildh-tfrn pfrelc

• Kiehdfc ed`fdtevfs ‐ ;==% lb fnpilyffs dft wlrta edvfstfc ed taf budc

• Dl pfrsldki k``ludts krf kiilwfc ‐ ;/3 lb `kpetki es brln fnpilyff kdc ennfcektf bkneiy ‐ Dl aeccfd bffs tl I]s


3/30

Edvfstnfdt Bl`us

• @lnpkdefs weta nkrjft `kpetkiezktelds ofilw$6==nn

• Vdcfrbliilwfc `lnpkdefs weta iettif tl dlsfii-secf `lvfrkhf

‐ Dl ldf es fcu`ktedh taf nkrjft• 5=% lb lur wlrj es bl`usfc ld clwdsecf tl

kvlec ilssfs


4/30

Edvfstnfdt Ecfks

• Xf `kst k wecf dft ed lur sfkr`a blr vkiuf ‐ ]rlpreftkry s`rffds ‐ Cktkoksf lb 46== sf`uretefs ‐ Dfws kifrts ld audcrfcs lb `lnpkdefs ‐ Edvfstlr dftwlrj ‐ Nkdkhfnfdt tfkn rfikteldsaeps ‐ Orljfrkhf bern `ldbfrfd`fs ‐ @urrfdtiy edvfstfc ed ;0 cebbfrfdt `ludtrefs


5/30

Edvfstnfdt ]rl`fss

• Budcknfdtki kdkiyses ‐ Blùs ld taf clwdsecf berst ‐ [ukdteby lur kdkiyses weta cftkeifc vkiukteld wlrj ‐ Vdcfrstkdc taf ùrrfdt ousedfss tarluha

`lnpkdy spfèbe` kdc edcustry ifvfi ceiehfd`f ‐ Kdkiyzf taf sustkedkoeiety lb k `lnpkdy―s

`lnpftetevf kcvkdtkhf ‐ Bk`f-tl-bk`f fvkiukteld lb nkdkhfnfdt tfkns


6/30

Pfùrety Pfif`teld

• Xf illj blr pre`f ces`rfpkdèfs oftwffd tafvkiuf lb k ousedfss kdc taf ùrrfdt sakrf pre`f

• ’Xay krf wf sl iu`jy tl akvf taes edvfstnfdtlpplrtudety


7/30

_esj Nkdkhfnfdt

• @lnnld sfdsf ‐ ’Es taes k resj E wkdt tl tkjf weta ny nltafr―s

rfterfnfdt skvedhs


8/30

• Aeha qukiety `lnpkdy weta aeha rfùrredh rfvfduf,aeha ìefdt rftfdteld rktfs, kdc sehdebe`kdt veseoeiety

• Jfy pikyfr sfrvedh k ikrhf kdc hrlwedh SKN supplrtfcoy sfùikr hrlwta

• Pkifs blr`f rfstru`turedh weii crevf suostkdteki fkrdedhshrlwta

• Dft `ksa okikd`f safft + B@B hfdfrkteld supplrts ikrhfrfturds lb `kpetki tl sakrfalicfrs

Se`jfr7 BL__


9/30

Ousedfss Lvfrvefw• Ifkcedh tfàdlilhy rfsfkrà kdc kcveslry `lnpkdy• Kttrk`tevf ousedfss weta ~8=% rfùrredh rfvfdufs• Ienetfc edvfstfc `kpetki kdc 2=% ed`rfnfdtki nkrheds• Cevfrsebefc weta dl ùstlnfr 4?% lb skifs

@lrf _fsfkrà3=%

Ifkcfrsaep Olkrcs?=%

Cktk5%

@ldsuitedh?8%

Fvfdts3%

Dld-_fùrredh_fvfduf

0;%


10/30

]rlcu`t Lvfrvefw• Blrrfstfr―s prenkry krfks lb blùs7

‐ Ousedfss Sfàdlilhy (6?% lb skifs)7• Pfiiedh trkceteldki tfà rfsfkrà tl trkceteldki tfà usfrs (’systfns

lb rf`lrc„) ‐ Fx7 @aefb Sfàdlilhy Lbbe`frs, @aefb Edblrnkteld Lbbe`frs, ft`.

‐ Nkrjftedh & Ptrktfhy (30% lb skifs)7• Pfiiedh tfà rfsfkrà tl afip ìefdts ofttfr nkdkhf, rfkà, kdc

`lnnude`ktf weta ùstlnfrs (’systfns lb fdhkhfnfdt„) ‐ Fx7 @aefb Nkrjftedh Lbbe`frs, @ustlnfr Edtfiiehfd`f R]―s, ft` .

• Saes es wafrf Blrrfstfr clnedktfs kdc cebbfrfdtektfs etsfib brlnpffrs

• Sfà ouchfts blr ùstlnfr edtfrk`teld krf hrlwedh nuà bkstfrtakd trkceteldki tfà (+;6%/yr vs +;-?%/yr)


11/30

Edcustry Lvfrvefw• Sltki kccrfsskoif nkrjft lb $;? oeiield kdc hrlwedh

‐ Swl oehhfst pikyfrs akvf ;8.6% nkrjft sakrf7• Hkrtdfr weta ;6% kdc Blrrfstfr weta ?.6%• @lnpftetlrs krf snkii kdc ik`j s`kif

• Aeha hrlwta edcustry ‐ Sfà rfsfkrà hrlws 4?x tfà spfdcedh kdc tfà spfdcedh

hrlwedh bkstfr takd HC]• Sfà spfdcedh fxpf`tfc tl hrlw 0.?-6.6% ed ?=;3

‐ ;=-;6% dlrnkiezfc kdduki lrhkde` hrlwta rktfs ‐ Blrrfstfr kdc Hkrtdfr akvf rf`fdtiy `lnnfdtfc tafy

`kddlt aerf bkst fdluha tl jffp up weta cfnkdc


12/30

’Sll nkdy `akdhfs, tll que`jiy„ • Pfvfrki lpfrkteldki cf`eselds nkcf ed ?=;? akvf

tfnplrkreiy enpk`tfc Blrrfstfr―s hrlwta prlbeif ‐ Ifkcfrsaep @akdhfs7

• _fpik`fc @aefb Pkifs Lbbe`fr kdc berfc @aefb Lpfrktedh Lbbe`fr ‐ @iefdt Cfievfry7

• @akdhfc tl ldf skifs rfp pfr k``ludt vs ldf rfp pfr prlcu`t• @akdhfc tl rfheldki/tfrretlreki oksfc skifs rfps

‐ Nkglrety lb skifs blr`f wks il`ktfc ed @knorechf, NK

‐ Pkifs @lnpfdskteld7• @lnpiftfiy rfvknpfc taf `lnpfdskteld stru`turf tl k vfry

udplpuikr kdc `ldbusedh pikd ‐ _fil`ktfc Afkcqukrtfrs7

• Ed`rfksfc `lnnutfs sehdebe`kdtiy


13/30

Kbtfrnkta• _fvfduf hrlwta stunoifc kdc ed`rfksfc `lsts wfehafc ld nkrheds

‐ 2=% lb ìefdt k``ludts swetàfc rfps ‐

Kttreteld spejfc ‐ fspfèkiiy knldhst sfdelr skifs rfpsEdcfxfc _fsfkrà _fvfduf

5=

;==

;;=

;?=

;0=

;3=

Blrrfstfr Hkrtdfr

Pkifs blr`f trkdseteld ofheds


14/30

Fkrdedhs Hrlwta• Blrrfstfr―s dfw @aefb Pkifs Lbbe`fr aks sed`f bexfc taf

`lnpfdskteld essufs kdc rfvknpfc rf`ruetedh ‐ Kttreteld ifvfis krf ofheddedh tl dlrnkiezf

• Saf dfw skifs nlcfi es wfii rf`fevfc oy `iefdts kdc

crevedh `rlss sfiiedh lpplrtudetefs blr taf berst tenf ‐ Paluic crevf cluoif cehet olljedhs hrlwta ed ?A ?=;3• Pkifs stkbb buiiy rknpedh lvfr taf dfxt ;?-;1 nldtas

saluic crevf cluoif cehet fkrdedhs hrlwta ofh. ?=;6 ‐ Buiiy rknpfc skifs stkbb saluic sfii ~$; neiield/yr vs dld

rknpfc skifs stkbb takt sfii ~$?0=,===/yr ‐ Xeta 2=% ed`rfnfdtki nkrheds, hrlwta bkiis tl taf olttln

iedf


15/30

Bker Rkiuf• Kt k pffr nuitepif, wf ofiefvf BL__ es wlrta $31.;=/sa

• Clwdsecf es prltf`tfc oy BL__―s khhrfssevf stl`j rfpuràksfprlhrkn

‐ _fpur̀ aksfc ;2.?% lb sakrfs L/P ed ?=;0 kt kvfrkhf pre`f lb $02.?3 ‐ ?.1% kolvf taf ùrrfdt pre`f

• Burtafr rfturds lb `kpetki iejfiy ks BL__ wluic iejf tl hft tl $;==neiield ed `ksa

‐ Enpiefs kdltafr ~$1= neiield ed `ksa tl of rfturdfc ed ?=;3• BL__ aks rfturdfc 3?% lb ets nkrjft `kp tl sakrfalicfrs sed`f

?==5 tarluha ouyok`js, rfhuikr cevecfdcs, kdc spfèki cevecfdcs


16/30

Edvfstnfdt _esjs• Pkifs trkdseteld tkjfs ildhfr takd fxpf`tfc• Ed`rfksfc `lnpfteteld ed nkrjftedh & strktfhy

rfsfkrà• Ed`rfksfc prliebfrkteld lb brff tfà edblrnkteld

kvkeikoif ld taf edtfrdft• @ldsuitedh skifs `ldteduf tl hrlw bkstfr takd

rfsfkrà skifs rfcuèdh rfùrredh rfvfduf nex• Ienetfc bilkt ks Bludcfr lwds ~3?% lb taf `lnpkdy


17/30

• Oustfc E]L rfsuits ed sjfwfc resj/rfwkrc

‐ Sltki rfturd lb 2=-1=%• Ienetfc clwdsecf ks trkcedh kt 18% lb OR• Fkrdedhs saluic nlrf takd cluoif lvfr taf

dfxt ? yfkrs• ]kec tl wket weta k cevecfdc yefic lb ;;%• Kiehdfc ed`fdtevfs ks nkdkhfr lwds 0=%

Se`jfr7 LBP


18/30

Ok`jhrludc

• Fxtfrdkiiy nkdkhfc OC@ ifdcedh tl tafneccif-nkrjft

• Ptl`j slic lbb cuf tl k cfiky ed rf`fevedh POE@crlp-clwd kpprlvki

‐ Kpprlvki rf`fevfc ed Cf`fnofr ?=;0• Skrhft plrtbliel lb $36=nn

‐ $??6nn Pr Ilkd Budc7 $;15nn (13% rknpfc) ‐ $??6nn POE@7 $35nn (??% rknpfc)


19/30

Pnkii Ousedfss Edvfstnfdt @lnpkdy

• Sltki rfturds ld edvfstnfdts lb ;?-;2%• _fturd ld fquety lb 4?=%• K``fss tl POK Cfofdturf prlhrkn

‐

Edtfrfst ldiy, ouiift weta ;= yfkr nkturety ‐ Bexfc rktf kt ;= yr trfksury + ~2=ops ‐ Vdsf`urfc, dld-rf`lursf tl nkdkhfr ‐ Dl prfpkynfdt pfdkity

•

Cerf`t ifdcedh piktblrn ‐ ]rlpreftkry cktkoksf lb 41j `lnpkdefs ‐ Ifdcs tl taf ilwfr neccif-nkrjft


20/30

Fkrdedhs Hrlwta Brln POE@ _knp_LF - POE@ Nlcfi7

Edvfstnfdt _fturd ;3.=%@lst lb budcs 3.=%Nhnt bff ;.86%C/F ?.=xCfot/Sltki @kpetki 22.8%

Cfot - $ $;6=.=Fquety - $ $86.=Sltki Kssfts $??6.=

_fvfduf $0;.6Edtfrfst fxpfdsf ($0.=)Nkdkhfnfdt bff ($0.5)Ilkd ilss prlveseld ($?.0)Ed`lnf (prf-ed`fdtevf) $??.0Ed`fdtevf bff ($3.6)Dft Ed`lnf $;8.5_LF ?3%

[3;0 [;;3 [?;3 [0;3 [3;3 [;;6 [?;6 [0;6 [3;6

LBP dft ed`lnf $;.3 $?.3 $?.8 $?.5 $0.0 $0.8 $3.? $3.2 $6.=

ISN dft ed`lnf $6.8 $2.8 $8.5 $5.3 $;;.0 $;?.8 $;3.; $;6.1 $;8.6

Pfq Hrlwta - % ;8% ;1% ;5% ?;% ;?% ;?% ;?% ;=%


21/30

Nkdkhfnfdt• Fxtfrdki nkdkhfr lwds 0=%

‐ @FL lwds 4;=% lb LBP cerf`tiy• Bk`f-tl-bk`f fvkiukteld lb nkdkhfnfdt tfkn

‐ POE@ kppie`kteld prl`fss• ]redèpkis weta strldh, plsetevf rfputktelds• _fkiezfc trk`j rf`lrc lb supfrelr rfturds ofdànkrjfc

khkedst budcs lb sknf vedtkhf yfkr kdc styif• Fvecfd`f lb strldh cfki bilw ed edvfstnfdt krfk blr

prlplsfc budc ‐ Edcustry àf`js plsetevf ld nkdkhfrs


22/30

Bker RkiufVpsecf7

]F _ktel7Fkrdedhs pfr sakrf $;.18Nuitepif ;;.=x]re`f tkrhft $?=.65

Cevecfdcs rf`fevfc tarluha [3;6 $?.8?Sltki vkiuf rf`fevfc $?0.0; vs @urrfdt 10.2%

Enpiefc cevecfdc yefic 5.;%

Ollj Rkiuf7OR/sa ([3;6) $;3.05Nuitepif ;?2%]re`f tkrhft $;1.;= vs @urrfdt 3?.2%

Cevecfdcs rf`fevfc tarluha [3;6 $?.8?Sltki vkiuf rf`fevfc $?=.1? vs @urrfdt 23.=%


23/30

Edvfstnfdt _esjs

• Fxf`uteld resj ‐ Skrhft hrlwedh POE@ kssfts $?=-0=n pfr qukrtfr

• Edtfrfst rktf resj ‐ POE@ ilkds krf bexfc rktf

• Ceiuteld ‐ Fquety lbbfredh dffcfc lb $;0.2n (;=% ceiuteld)

• Hfdfrki f`ldlne` clwdturd ‐ Pnkii ousedfssfs krf edlrcedktfiy kbbf`tfc


24/30

• Ifkcedh fhh pk`jkhedh `lnpkdy weta k ;=.6% B@Byefic*

• Cfbfdsevf kdc stkoif edcustry weta bfw ikrhf pikyfrs• _fstru`turedh prlhrkn weii `ldteduf tl enprlvf

nkrheds• Ed`rfksedh fhh cfnkdc `ldtedufs tl crevf skifs hrlwta

Se`jfr7 AK_S C@

* Oksfc ld N@Q


25/30

Edcustry Lvfrvefw• Ifkcedh prlcu`fr lb nlicfc beorf fhh pk`jkhedh (3=% NP)

• Nlicfc beorf prfbfrrfc oy olta `ldsunfrs kdc pk`jfrs


26/30

Ousedfss Lvfrvefw• Orlkc plrtbliel lb `ustlnezkoif prlcu`ts fkseiy nkt`afs kii

nkrjftedh strktfhefs ‐ Aeha fdc rfprfsfdts 43=% lb Akrtnkdd―s Furlpfkd skifs kdc hrlwedh

• _fheldki ikrhf prlcu`teld `kpkoeietefs ‐ ]rlcu`teld setfs7 @kdkck, Cfdnkrj, Hfrnkdy, Audhkry, @rlktek, kdc Esrkfi

Furlpf1?%

D. Knfre`k;1%

% Pkifs oy Hflhrkpay

Furlpf83%

D. Knfre`k30%

@lrplrktf-;6%

% FOES oy Hflhrkpay


27/30

Hrlwta Crevfrs• Ed`rfksedh cfnkdc blr prfneun pk`jkhedh ed Furlpf

‐ Crevfd oy hrl`frs ks tafy fkrd 4?=% FOES nkrheds ld prfneunfhhs

• Ed`rfksedh pfdftrkteld lb nlicfc beorf ed Dlrta Knfre`k ‐ V.P. nkrjft es ~6=% blkn tlcky ‐ Nlicfc beorf hkededh sakrf ks `ustlnfrs cfnkdc sustkedkoif

kitfrdktevfs ‐ Akrtnkdd es ed`rfksedh `kpk`ety 00% lvfr dfxt ;? nldtas tl

supplrt cfnkdc• Ed`rfksedh `ldsunpteld lb fhhs ed Furlpf

‐ Fhh `ldsunpteld ed cfvfilpfc Furlpf ed`rfksfc 0.5% ed ?=;0 ‐ ]lpuikteld hrlwta kdc urokdezkteld krf jfy crevfrs


28/30

_fstru`turedh ]rlhrkn

_fsuits tl Cktf

FOES Nkrheds76.8% -4 5.3%

B@B plsetevf sed`f?=;= kdc hrlwedh

_LE@ %71.6% -4 ?0.=%

Cevecfdcs pfr sakrf7CJJ ;.6= -4 CJJ 5.6=

]aksf Swl7 Ed ]rlhrfss

_kteldkiezf ̀ lst oksf Enprlvf skifs nexLptenezf

nkdubk`turedhbk`eietefs

Fxpkdc D. Knfre`kd`kpk`ety

]aksf Ldf7 @lnpiftfc

Cevfst ̀ kpetki edtfdsevfousedfssfs

Nkdkhfnfdt lvfrakui(dfw @akernkd, @FL,

@BL, kdc @LL)

Surd krludc ilssnkjedh sfhnfdts

@fdtrkiezf `lrplrktfbud`telds


29/30

Bker Rkiuf• Kt k pffr nuitepif, AK_S C@ es wlrta CJJ ?12.25/sa


30/30

Edvfstnfdt _esjs• Nkrheds sus`fpteoif tl edput `lsts

‐ Swl ikrhfst edputs krf rf`y`ifc pkpfr kdc fdfrhy• Ilw hrlwta edcustry

‐ Dfw nkrjft lpplrtudetefs ed taf V.P. kdc @fdtrki Furlpfhevfd ilw pfdftrkteld

• Pkifs krf tefc tl k `lnnlcety ‐ Fhh vliunfs krf vfry stkoif

• Kitfrdktevf pk`jkhedh nktfrekis fxest

Eric Andersen Focusing on Where Others Arent

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