Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, April 12, 2018 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Bumi Serpong Damai: Outperforming its peers (BSDE IJ. IDR 1,760. BUY. IDR 2,000) We reiterate our BUY call on BSDE with an unchanged target price of IDR2,000. We believe the stock still has upside given: (i) the encouraging marketing sales in 1Q18 of IDR2.5tn, +58.4%yoy, or reaching 35.1% of our full year forecast and the management’s target, outperforming its peers whose 1Q18 marketing sales only reached 25.9% of management targets, and (ii) the stock’s attractive valuation as BSDE currently trades at a 71.3% discount to NAV, near to its historical +1SD of 70.6%. To see the full version of this report, please click here MARKET NEWS Macroeconomy ADB expects Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5.3% in 2018 Bappenas seeks investors for infrastructure development Corporate RALS: Solid Mar-18 sales KEY INDEX Close Chg Ytd Vol (%) (%) (US$ m) Asean - 5 Indonesia 6,361 0.6 0.1 450 Thailand 1,763 0.1 0.5 1,767 Philippines 7,944 0.1 (7.2) 118 Malaysia 1,870 0.5 4.1 699 Singapore 3,480 0.4 2.3 896 Regional China 3,208 0.6 (3.0) 44,652 Hong Kong 30,898 0.5 3.3 16,972 Japan 21,687 (0.5) (4.7) 12,616 Korea 2,444 (0.3) (0.9) 7,052 Taiwan 10,974 0.4 3.1 4,427 India 33,940 0.2 (0.3) 480 NASDAQ 7,069 (0.4) 2.4 96,151 Dow Jones 24,189 (0.9) (2.1) 7,960 CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE Rate w-w m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,759 0.1 0.0 (1.5) SBI rate % 4.25 - - - 10y Gov Indo bond 6.56 (0.0) (0.3) 0.2 HARD COMMODITY Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Coal US$/ton 94 0.2 (5.8) (7.1) Gold US$/toz 1,353 (0.0) 2.2 3.8 Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,821 1.2 0.0 8.8 Tin US$/mt.ton 21,052 0.6 (2.0) 4.8 SOFT COMMODITY Unit Price d-d m-m ytd (%) (%) (%) Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,503 (0.5) 1.7 31.8 Corn US$/mt.ton 135 (2.6) (4.7) 7.5 Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 67 0.1 9.0 10.7 Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 72 1.4 10.0 7.8 Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,448 (0.3) 2.5 2.4 Rubber USd/kg 138 0.2 (5.5) (6.1) Pulp US$/tonne 1,125 N/A 4.1 12.5 Coffee US$/60kgbag 92 0.6 5.3 (10.1) Sugar US$/MT 346 0.2 (3.1) (12.3) Wheat US$/ton 137 (0.8) (0.2) 11.3 Soy Oil US$/lb 32 (1.0) 0.4 (4.7) Soy Bean US$/by 1,048 (0.2) 1.8 10.1 Source: Bloomberg
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Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, April 12, 2018
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
FROM EQUITY RESEARCH
Bumi Serpong Damai: Outperforming its peers (BSDE IJ. IDR 1,760. BUY. IDR 2,000)
We reiterate our BUY call on BSDE with an unchanged target price
of IDR2,000. We believe the stock still has upside given: (i) the encouraging marketing sales in 1Q18 of IDR2.5tn, +58.4%yoy, or
reaching 35.1% of our full year forecast and the management’s target, outperforming its peers whose 1Q18 marketing sales only
reached 25.9% of management targets, and (ii) the stock’s attractive valuation as BSDE currently trades at a 71.3% discount to
NAV, near to its historical +1SD of 70.6%.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
MARKET NEWS
Macroeconomy
ADB expects Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5.3% in 2018 Bappenas seeks investors for infrastructure development
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Company Update
Thursday,12 April 2018
Bumi Serpong Damai(BSDE IJ) BUY
Maintain Outperforming its peers
We reiterate our BUY call on BSDE with an unchanged target price of IDR2,000. We believe the stock still has upside given: (i) the encouraging marketing sales in 1Q18 of IDR2.5tn, +58.4%yoy, or reaching 35.1% of our full year forecast and the management’s target, outperforming its peers whose 1Q18 marketing sales only reached 25.9% of management targets, and (ii) the stock’s attractive valuation as BSDE currently trades at a 71.3% discount to NAV, near to its historical +1SD of 70.6%. Stellar marketing sales in 1Q18. BSDE recorded marketing sales of IDR2.5tn in 1Q18, +58.4%yoy, or reaching 35.1% of our full year forecast and the management’s target of IDR7.2tn. Compared to its peers, we note that BSDE’s marketing sales outperformed (the 1Q18 marketing sales of its peers only reached 25.9% of the management targets and 26.6% of our targets on average (ranging from 11.4%-35.6%). More varied contribution of marketing sales. BSDE’s stellar performance mainly owed to marketing sales recognition from: (i) Klaska Apartment, Surabaya (1,043 units available for sale, 80% take up rate, total proceeds of IDR366bn), (ii) Southgate apartment, Jakarta (300 units available for sale, 43% take up rate, total proceeds of IDR253bn), (ii) commercial land plot sales in Serpong and MT Haryono of IDR652bn, (iv) Zadeite in BSD City (67 units available for sale, 90% take up rate, and total proceeds of IDR280bn), (v) Zora in BSD City (84 units available for sale, 32% take up rate, and total proceeds of IDR120bn), (vi) Tevana in BSD Phase 1 (176 units available for sale, 47% take up rate, and total proceeds of IDR118bn), (vii) Water Terace in Grand Wisata Bekasi (42 units available for sale, 38% take up rate, and total proceeds of IDR40bn). One launch in the pipeline. This month, BSDE plans to conduct one landed residential launching in Grand Wisata Bekasi named Vermella. With 57 units available for sale, prices range from IDR1.4-2bn/unit. Assuming a 50% take up rate, we estimate that this launch will generate additional marketing sales of IDR45bn. The company has not disclosed information on further planned product launches. However, with a limited number of working days in 2Q18 owing to the festive season, we believe that the launches in 2Q18 will be less than in 1Q18 (6 product launches). Maintain BUY. We reiterate our BUY call on BSDE with an unchanged target price of IDR2,000 (SOTP based valuation with WACC of 12.8%, Terminal Growth of 4.0%, and target discount to NAV of 68%). At the moment, BSDE is trading at a 71.3% discount to NAV, above its historical +1SD of 70.6%. We believe the stock still has upside given that its marketing sales are outperforming those of its peers.
ADB expects Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5.3% in 2018 ADB expects the Indonesian economy to grow by 5.3% in 2018 and 2019. This forecast is based on expected
improvements in investment and household consumption. Macroeconomic management and structural reforms are expected to underpin the increase in investment. The continuation of structural reforms in Indonesia is expected to
create more inclusive economic growth. In addition, ADB believes that potential external risks are related to changes in monetary policy in developed countries in addition to the growing concerns of a potential trade war. (Investor
Daily)
Bappenas seeks investors for infrastructure development
The Minister of National Development Planning (Bappenas) attended the annual investment meeting in the United Arab Emirates to promote investment in Indonesia’s infrastructure development. Two schemes were put forward:
government cooperation with business entities (KBPU) and non-government budget infrastructure financing (PINA).
There are currently 19 sectors which are covered by KBPU, including the connectivity, urban and social sectors. Bappenas has already opened a KBPU office that is designed to offer one stop services with direct connections to
seven ministries. The ministry has also assigned three functions in the PINA scheme: to facilitate projects that reach financial closure and to provide advice on project structuring and financing; improving the infrastructure investment
environment through regulation assessment and accelerating creative financing instrument implementation; and pipelining a list of projects to be introduced to investors. (Investor Daily)
CORPORATE RALS: Solid Mar-18 sales
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS) has provided guidance for solid growth in Mar-18’s sales to reach IDR619bn, +25.8% yoy and +36.3% mom. SSSG rose to 0.3% YTD as of 1Q18 (2M18: -1.7%), much better than in the
Matahari Department Store LPPF 10,975 11,050 (0.7) - (5.4) 9.7 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, April 12, 2018
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PREVIOUS REPORTS
Plantation: Mar 18 Inventory Down Further, Surya Semesta Internusa: Facing a tough first half to the year, Waskita
Karya: To issue a new funding instrument named RDPT SnapShot20180411 Alam Sutra Realty: Lifted by land sales, Cement: Buoyed by the infrastructure boom, Ciputra Development: On a
sound footing, Erajaya Swasembada: Pursuing a volume-driven strategy, Mitra Adiperkasa: Another solid year, Semen Indonesia (Persero): Upgrade on higher ASP SnapShot20180410
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia: Performance to improve, Malindo Feedmill Indonesia: Sluggish performance, Waskita Karya: Farewell Mr. Choliq, welcome back Mr. Putra SnapShot20180409
Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate: Still optimistic despite low 1Q18 sales, Matahari Putra Prima: Hurdles ahead,
Summarecon: Modest sales in 1Q18 but set to pick up, Waskita Beton Precast: Generous dividend SnapShot20180406
Strategy: Trade war – China’s reciprocal measures underway, Surya Citra Media: Hitting the upper end of the 1Q18 guidance SnapShot20180405
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