Equity Research Report 26 September 2016 Ways2Capital

TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY FIFTY : - The Equity benchmark Nifty 50 oscillated between bulls and bears, as

after a gap up opening, on Monday with marginal gains of 9 points or 0.10 percent at

8788. Nifty was up by 90 points before selling crept in Nifty fell by 100 points from its

Intraday high of 8878 before stabilizing to close at 8809 up by 35 points. Incremental

Policy reforms and transmission of rate cuts that scenario , The Nifty target around 9200-

9300. The Fundamental aspect of Nifty P/E stood around 24.65. If we assume 18 per cent

Compound Annual Growth rate for now, Then EPS may come around 431 and the fair

value of Nifty is around 6900-9300 by this month. Federal Reserve chair Jennet Yellen

was dovish in her Assessment of short-term rate hike. With an expectation no hike US

FED has delivered a moderate stand on economy , growth , US FED said. Economic

Activity has picked up and job gained were solid in recent month signalized the

possibility of year end rate hike. Looking ahead Nifty has to sustain over 8925-8725 zone

for further rally up-to 8995-9060. The Crucial Level is 8820-8780 down side and 8925-

8975 is up side.

BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty Opened on flat note on Monday up by 35 points or 0.17

per cent at 19892. The Bank Nifty was in bigger fall of 400 points from intraday high of

20240 to 19830 on Monday trading session. Banking stocks were out performer along

with strong participation from Public Sector Banks. Although the Private sector banks

remain the best performer from the last 3-4 week , From This level the Index has strong

support around 19720 and sustaining from last 17 trading sessions. The Sustaining above

19720-19980 zone Index will move toward 20500-20800 in near Term. The Bank Nifty

Chart suggesting if it is able to sustain the level of 19800 level for Next week sessions,

the next hurdle for Bank Nifty would be around 20540 or break below 19800 could lead

toward 19500 level. Crucial Level for Bank Nifty is 20478-20985 up side or 19682-

19464 is down side.

Monday, 26 September 2016

TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9030 8906 8844 8782 8658

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9226 8960 8827 8694 8428

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9660 9106 8829 8552 7998

BANK NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

20869 20451 20242 20033 19615

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

21872 20818 20291 19764 18710

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

22693 21025 20191 19357 17689

MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS

NIFTY 8805 8736 - -

BANK NIFTY 19925 18450 - -

PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

NIFTY 8674 8452 8375

BANK NIFTY 19240 18430 18158

PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of NIFTY has Applied the Bollinger

Band along with Parabolic SAR both are the leading Indicators and Idintify the Bull or

Bear Trend, The Uses of Bollinger Band Varies from trader to trader Some buy when it

break the Middle Band on up side, and Some buy when it crosses the Upper Band. And

the Parabolic SAR is a indication for Either bull Market or Bear. On the above given

Chart of NIFTY has break the Middle Band which is a clear indication of Bull Market the

important levels for Nifty is 8906-9005 Up side and 8830-8780 is down side Sustaining

the level of 8830 will move further up side toward 8900-9005 level.

PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the

Bollinger Band along with the Parabolic , The Usage of bollinger Band differ from

Trader-to-Trader indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market respectively. Thus

the Bank Nifty Chart also Giving Bullish Signal, from this Level we are Expecting if

Bank Nifty could lead Toward bulls side Upcoming week. Then it would touch the level

of 20448-20945 in Near-Term. If we look into the Fundamental of Bank Nifty the P/E of

Bank Nifty is around 27.02 which is in the comfort level for Index , Bank Nifty could

take some correction in Short-Term. The levels of Bank Nifty 21450 as per P/E Ratio for

Bank Nifty. The Important levels is 19806 - 19640 down side and 20560-20870 is up

side. Bank Nifty Chart is Suggesting the Bull Movement could witness good rally in next

week in Banking Stocks.

NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS

COMPANY

NAME

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

ACC EQ 1690 1655 1638 1603 1586

ALBK EQ 84 83 82 81 80

AMBUJACEM EQ 268 264 262 258 256

ASIAN PAINT EQ 1214 1206 1196 1188 1178

AXISBANK EQ 608 586 573 551 538

BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 2976 2957 2934 2915 2892

BANKBARODA EQ 174 172 170 168 166

BANKINDIA EQ 122 121 119 118 116

BHEL EQ 152 149 148 145 144

BHARTIARTL EQ 333 330 327 324 321

CIPLA EQ 624 619 611 606 598

COALINDIA EQ 330 329 328 327 326

DLF EQ 163 160 157 154 151

DRREDDY EQ 3206 3191 3170 3155 3134

GAIL EQ 396 391 389 384 382

GRASIM EQ 5020 4975 4931 4886 4842

HCLTECH EQ 810 805 798 793 786

HDFC EQ 1430 1426 1419 1415 1408

HDFCBANK EQ 1329 1323 1312 1306 1295

HEROMOTOCO EQ 3575 3556 3535 3516 3495

HINDALCO EQ 157 156 154 153 151

HINDUNILVR EQ 919 915 908 904 897

ICICIBANK EQ 277 274 273 270 269

ITC EQ 260 256 254 250 248

INDUSIND BANK EQ 1242 1233 1221 1212 1200

INFY EQ 1064 1059 1054 1049 1044

JINDALSTEL EQ 85 84 82 81 79

KOTAKBANK EQ 808 802 798 792 788

LT EQ 1528 1514 1502 1488 1476

M&M EQ 1433 1421 1416 1404 1199

MRF EQ 47785 46741 45428 44384 43071

MARUTI EQ 5664 5634 5599 5569 5534

ONGC EQ 265 263 260 258 255

ORIENTBANK EQ 133 132 131 130 129

RCOM EQ 50 49 48 47 46

RELCAPITAL EQ 604 592 584 572 564

RELIANCE EQ 1120 1112 1100 1092 1080

RELINFRA EQ 626 617 612 603 598

RPOWER EQ 53 52 52 51 51

SBIN EQ 260 257 255 252 250

SSLT( VEDL) EQ 175 172 170 167 165

SUNPHARMA EQ 794 786 783 775 772

TATAMOTORS EQ 561 557 554 550 547

TATAPOWER EQ 78 76 76 74 74

TATASTEEL EQ 380 376 373 369 366

UNIONBANK EQ 150 147 146 143 142

TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS

NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS )

NSE FUTURE

NSE FUTURE : BUY PCJEWLLERS FUTURE ABOVE 518 TGT 540 SL 510.

NSE FUTURE : BUY CENTURYTEX FUTURE ABOVE 915 TGT 940 SL 905.

NSE FUTURE : BUY HINDPETRO FUTURE ABOVE 424 TGT 436 SL 418.

NSE CASH

NSE CASH : BUY CHEMFALKAL NSE CASH ABOVE 331 TGT 355 SL 322.

NSE CASH : BUY IOC NSE CASH ABOVE 594 TGT 644 SL 578.

NSE CASH : BUY BHARTIARTL NSE CASH ABOVE 331 TGT 355 SL 323

SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE

1 AXIS BANK LTD. 602 557 -7.43 %

2 MASTEK LIMITED127 117 -7.27 %

3 GODREJ CP 1687 1581 -6.29 %

4 TRENT LTD. 225 212 -6.05 %

5 NATCO PHARMA 656 621 -5.32 %

6 GODFREY

PHILIPS

1350 1295 -4.05 %

7 BATA INDIA 526 505 -3.72 %

8 LUPIN LIMITED 1537 1489 -3.12 %

9 IDEA CELLULAR 85 82 -3.11 %

10 ITC LIMITED 260 253 -2.65 %

11 TECH MAHINDRA 465 454 -2.30 %

12 BAJAJ AUTO LTD. 2981 2929 -1.74 %

13 INFOSYS 1060 1042 -1.66 %

14 HERO

MOTOCORP

3588 3532 -1.58 %

15 KOTAK BANK 806 796 -1.30 %

SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE

CMP % CHANGE

1 HINDALCO INDUS 142 154+8.24 %

2AURO PHARMA 785 837 +6.65 %

3 BHARTI INFRATE 351 372+.04 %

4YES BANK LTD. 1169 1232 +5.40 %

5 BPCL 577 604+4.66 %

6INDUSIND BANK 1169 1218 +4.18 %

7 ONGC 250 259+3.82 %

8TATA STEEL 358 371 +3.46 %

9 CIPLA 593 612+3.24 %

10ASIAN PAINTS 1155 1188 +2.90 %

11 BANK BARODA 164 169+2.70 %

12NTPC 153 156 +2.55 %

13 RELIANCE 1075 1101+2.41 %

14HDFC 1397 1425 +1.99 %

15 L&T 1473 1497+1.62 %

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

Federal Reserve keeps key rate unchanged - Information received since the Federal

Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to

strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in

the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent

months, job gains have been solid, on average. Household spending has been growing

strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has continued to run

below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in

energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation

compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation

expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. Consistent with its statutory

mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The

Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy,

economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will

strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part

because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term

as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the

labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly

balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global

economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal

funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the

federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further

evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy

remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market

conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

Cabinet approves Railway and Union Budget merger - The Union Cabinet has

approved scrapping of separate Railway Budget and merging it with the General Budget.

The proposal was moved by the Finance Ministry after it received representations from

some ministries that the annual budget exercise be completed before the new fiscal year

begins on April 1 for streamlined allocation of funds. "We are merging the union budget

with the Railway budget. There will be only one budget. The functional autonomy of the

Railway to be maintained," Arun Jaitley said.

To facilitate this, the Budget Session of parliament will be called sometime before

January 25, a month ahead of the current practice.

Loss in exports lead to job losses: ASSOCHAM study - Sharp drop in merchandise

exports mainly contributed to a loss of 70,000 jobs during the second quarter of 2015

reinforcing a crucial point that the employment generation has to be led by the domestic

demand in the wake of subdued global demand, an ASSOCHAM –Thought Arbitrage

study noted. It said around 70,000 workers were retrenched in the second quarter of 2015.

Livelihood opportunities in export units particularly shrank during this period. While

slowdown in global demand compelled some of the units to retrench people from pay roll,

the reduction was facilitated by the increasing contractualisation of jobs. "There is a

concern because most of the export-oriented units in the economy are dependent on

contractual workers. So, massive reduction in contractual jobs in these sectors might as

well imply deteriorating conditions in the export units,” the paper said.

Given the subdued global economic scenario, rejuvenating the economy by exporting or

utilising external trade remains a difficult proposition, if not immediately impossible.

“Therefore, Indian economy has to look internally at the domestic economy to restart the

Indian growth story. That is only possible if there is extra demand generation within the

economy. Employment generation is the most important factor to generate such extra

demand. More employment means extra purchasing power in the hands of the people, and

subsequently more demand generated for all kinds of commodities and services”,

ASSOCHAM Secretary General Mr D S Rawat said.

GST Council to hold first meeting tomorrow - The All powerful GST Council, which

will decide on tax rates, exempted goods and threshold, will meet for the first time

tomorrow as it races against time to iron out issues between Centre and states for rolling

out the new indirect tax regime from April 1, 2017. The Goods and Services Tax Council

is chaired by the Union Finance Minister and has Minister of State in charge of revenue

and state finance ministers as members. The two-day meet of the GST Council beginning

tomorrow is likely to take up the discussion on issues of dual control and threshold with

states demanding that they be given the legal and administrative power for imposing tax

on entities with turnover of up to Rs 1.5 crore. In their last meeting with Jaitley on July

26, states had made it clear that small businesses with turnover of Rs 1.5 crore and below

should be taxed only in the hands of state.

Moody's to upgrade India's rating in two years if reforms are tangible - Moody's on

Tuesday said it could upgrade India's rating in 1-2 years if it is convinced that the

economic reforms are tangible. Moody's, which has a 'Baa3' rating with a positive

outlook, said evidence of policymakers working towards a faster fiscal consolidation,

reducing the debt-GDP ratio and addressing infrastructure and monsoon volatility

challenges will determine an upgrade, going forward.We have a positive outlook on

India. On balance, the risk is on the upside. We are continuously monitoring the rating.

We see pressure building up in 1-2 years and any tangible change could bring about a

change in rating," Moody's Sovereign Group Senior V-P Marie Diron told journalists.

Moody's Investors Service had in April 2015 revised India's outlook to 'positive' from

'stable' and said it could upgrade rating in 12-18 months. India's step-wise reforms have

been set in motion, but weak investment and banking risk may act as speed-breakers,

Moody's Investors Service said in a report.

India posts surprise current account deficit on slower remittances - India

unexpectedly posted a slight current account deficit in the April-June quarter, contrasting

with expectations it would post the first surplus in nine years, as citizens abroad sent

fewer remittances home. Reserve Bank of India data on Wednesday showed India posted

a current account deficit of $ 300 million, or 0.1 percent of gross domestic product, in the

period. It compared with expectations for a $ 4 billion surplus that would have been the

first positive balance since the first three months of 2007. The deficit, however, was much

narrower than the $ 6.1 billion, or 1.2 percent of GDP, in the same quarter a year ago.

India has a large number of citizens who work abroad, but what they have been able to

send home has fallen due to an economic slowdown in popular work destinations such as

the Middle East. Private transfer receipts, which reflect remittances, fell to $ 15.2 billion

in April-June versus $ 16.3 billion a year ago, according to the RBI data.

✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS

The Indian government will partly fund a pipeline project linking five eastern states, the

first such move by the country as it aims to gradually move to a gas-based economy

The Union Cabinet gave its nod for raising extra budgetary resources of Rs. 313 billion in

the financial year 2016-17.

Breaking from tradition, the general budget of the union government is likely to be

presented on February 1 instead of the last day of the month, as part of an overhaul that

would also scrap the practice of a separate railway budget.

The government reviewed India's existing free trade agreements and their impact on

domestic economy and employment generation.

India is negotiating with US Export-Import Bank for an USD 8-9 billion loan to finance

six Westinghouse Electric nuclear reactors.

The government expects to mobilize more than Rs8.20bn from the fifth tranche of

Sovereign Gold Bond scheme, and the next tranche will be launched with more attractive

features before Diwali.

India Inc's external commercial borrowing jumped by over four times to USD3.17bn in

August this year.

Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari announced a string

expressway projects worth about Rs. 660 billion in Punjab.

Services exports fell by 4.6% to USD 12.78 billion in July this year.

FIPB will decide on 15 foreign investment proposals, including that of Idea Cellular

Infrastructure Services and Sharekhan, on September 26.

The recent revision of minimum wages for the agri and non-agri sector workers would

benefit 7 million people, Labour Minister.

✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -

IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd has emerged as a preferred bidder for six-laning of

the Kishangarh-Udaipur-Ahmedabad section of NH-79 in Rajasthan.

HSIL Limited has launched its moon-bow range of water purifiers in five variants.

Prestige Estates Projects plans to raise at least USD 300 million, around Rs. 20 billion,

by selling up to 40% stake in its rent-yielding commercial assets and has drawn interest

from Canadian Pension Plan and GIC of Singapore. The southern developer has hired JP

Morgan to advise on the deal involving a string of shopping malls and office spaces

valued at about Rs. 50 billion, or USD 750 million.

Essel Propack Limited announced 75.1% stake in Essel Deutschland Germany at an

enterprise value of USD 32 million.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved a viability gap funding/partial

capital grant of INR 51.76 billion for GAIL India Limited 2,539-km long Jagdishpur-

Haldia and Bokaro-Dhamra natural gas pipeline.

The promoters of NHC Foods are in talks to sell their stake to the firm's Malaysian

partner MAP Enterprises.

The proposed USD 1 billion JV between ArcelorMittal and SAIL Limited will be

finalized by Dec.

Nestle India Limited moved Supreme Court seeking its nod to destroy about 550 tonnes

of recalled stock of Maggi Noodles which have passed shelf life, saying its storage may

lead to health hazard at the 39 locations where it is stored across the country.

Reliance Defence & Engineering Limited has emerged as the lowest bidder for building

14 fast-patrol vessels for Indian Coast Guard valued at Rs. 9.20 billion. Goa Shipyard

Limited was the L2 bidder while L&T L3 bidder. The vessels will be designed in-house

and built by the company at its Pipavav Shipyard.

Larsen and Toubro has bagged orders worth Rs. 17.26 billion across various business

segments.

Tata Steel Limited will pay out a total Rs. 1.30 billion as annual bonus to its eligible

employees for the year 2015-16.

Reliance Industries Limited has lined up a scheme where 10-15% of the salaries of its

top 100 performers will be rolled out as stocks if they have been with the company for

three years in a bid to retain talent.

Zydus Cadila announced partnership with Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical Company

Limited to develop vaccine for chikungunya.

The troubles for Financial Technologies India Limited ) intensified with the Central

Bureau of Investigation conducting search operations at the company’s premises in

connection with MSEI licence grant case.

Kolte-Patil Developers Limited said it had generated an internal return rate of 36% on

its Margosa Heights project in Pune, which it co-developed with Portman Holdings.

Inox Leisure Limited has announced a strategic partnership with Innoviti Payment

Solutions to upgrade the customer experience.

Abbot Point Operations Pvt Limited, the Australian subsidiary of Adani Ports and

Special Economic Zone Limited has entered into an agreement to acquire ownership of

Abbot Point Bulkcoal Pty Limited .

GAIL India Limited has started its first UNIPOL PE process line to produce 0.4 mt of

polyethylene annually.

Sharon Bio-Medicine Limited has received approval from the US health regulator for its

API plant at Taloja in Maharashtra.

The tax department has slapped a service tax demand of over Rs. 61 billion on the

overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, a move that may potentially render

its investments in oil and gas fields abroad infructuous.

British Petroleum plc of UK sold a further 8.53% stake in Castrol India Limited to bring

its shareholding down to 51%.

TeamLease Services Limited is expanding its focus on the higher margin IT staffing

business by acquiring local rival NichePro Technologies for Rs. 290 million, its second

buy this year.

Indian Oil Corporation and GAIL India will sign a pact to take 49% stake in Adani

Group's Rs. 50 billion Dhamra LNG project in Odisha.

Sundaram Finance Limited , raising Rs. 20 billion through debentures to finance

business expansion.

The Reserve Bank has allowed foreign investors to buy up to 49% stake in Inox Leisure

Limited under the Portfolio Investment Scheme.

✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK

India is less vulnerable to banking distress among the major economies while

neighbouring China faces higher risks, according to the Bank for International

Settlements. Data compiled by BIS of more than 40 economies show that credit-to-GDP

gap was among the least for India in the first quarter of this year. The metric, seen as a

reliable early warning indicator of impending financial crises, captures the build-up of

excessive credit in the system. In the first quarter of 2016, India's credit-to-GDP gap

stood at -2.9, also the lowest among the BRIC group of nations, as per BIS data. The

same stood at -3.0 in the three months ended December 2015.

With IDBI Bank proposed Qualified Institutional Placement issue receiving lukewarm

interest from investors, government is now considering other options including follow on

public offer and strategic sale to reduce its stake in the lender. "We have never said that

QIP is the only route. Initially some investors had shown their interest in QIP, but right

now there is not much interest," Finance Ministry sources said.

Federal Bank has launched its second Federal Skill Academy at Coimbatore, Tamil

Nadu. The academy has been launched as part of its Corporate Social Responsibility

initiatives. The Academy at Coimbatore will be initially providing an in-demand CNC

Machine Operator Certificate Course in Milling & Turning which will be certified by

COINDIA. The initiative will facilitate underprivileged students to successfully complete

the courses which will make them employable for for opportunities both in India as well

as abroad. The first Academy was inaugurated last year at Ernakulam, Kerala.

Concerned over low use of debit cards in electronic payments, the Reserve Bank of

India wants banks that are not installing card accepting machines to contribute to a fund

that will subsidise installation of point of sales terminals. There are over 68-crore debit

cards in India. Over a third of these have been added in the last two years following the

implementation of the Jan-Dhan Yojana. But the number of PoS terminals has gone up

marginally from 12 lakh to 14 lakh. The average debit cardholder in India uses his/her

card only once at a PoS machine for every 10 transactions in an ATM.

The Reserve Bank of India has issued an ultimatum to Indian banks on cyber crimes,

asking them to immediately report any breach of security so that the overall network is

not compromised. The tough stance follows the reluctance of some banks to report such

frauds in order to avoid negative publicity. The banking regulator has set a deadline of

March 31, 2017, for banks to put in place a mechanism to report cyber attacks

immediately. A team of RBI officials, led by Executive Director Meena Hemchandra, has

conveyed this to senior executives of banks in a meeting held recently. The officials told

bankers that RBI will handhold them till March 31 next year but after that, banks should

be prepared for punitive action if they fail to immediately inform about any cyber attack,

two senior officials said

Bank deposits growth rate has surged to its highest in more than a decade in two weeks to

September 2 aided by the flow from the 7th Pay Commission payments and the credit-to-

deposit ratio doubled to 14%, though it is still a fraction of what it used to be in peak. In

the fortnight ended September 2, the period when the revised salary was credited to

employees' accounts, bank deposits rose 1.3% to Rs 1.3 lakh crore, according to latest

RBI data. This is almost a fifth of what banks have raised in the fiscal so far. This is the

highest normal time fortnightly growth in deposits. One sees banking sector deposit

growth of over Rs 1 lakh crore only during the end of a quarter.

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