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Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

Apr 13, 2017

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Page 1: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital
Page 2: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY FIFTY : - The Market opened gap up after an extended Weekend and Sustained

above 8900 throughout the day’s trading Session. The 50 Shares Index Nifty 50 Opened

at 8852 up by 43 points or 0.48 per cent. After giving a breakout from 8670 levels. Nifty

has managed to gain nearly 400 points. This rally has been triggered due to speculation of

the US Fed not raising the interest rate in near future. Since the Nifty has touch above

9000 crucial Psychological level. Market may find resistance at this level. However the

bull Market is intact and Secular in nature. It is important to note that the NSE small cap

Index registered all time high of 6303. The Nifty could consolidate within the range of

8874-8971 due to lack of triggered from domestic or global market. From this point the

Logical levels for Nifty will be 9025-9050 up side, and the 8860-8820 would be the

important level down side.

BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty opened in a positive note up by 107 points or 0.53 per

cent at 19990. The Bank Nifty got significant boost from the Public Sector Banks Stocks

as FM talked about some political consensus for privatization of the same, Although it is

too early to think about that, as the main priority will be recapitalization and actual

resolution of stressed assets of the Public Sector Banks as of now. Although the

underlying fundamental factors are optimistic for Bank Nifty the chances of technical

correction or at least a retrenchment is increasing in probability. Recent decline in bond

yields also aided the rally in Bank stocks by causing adjustments on their balance sheet,

especially on Public sector banks. On Daily chart the price action becomes clearer and we

see market is trading in price channel structure. Also some traders are pointing out

upcoming monetary policy stance as the main mover behind the rally. The Crucial Levels

for Bank Nifty is 20827-20556 up side and 20029-19773 is down side.

Monday, 12 September 2016

Page 3: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9097 8969 8905 8841 8713

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9215 9007 8903 8799 8591

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

9486 9074 8868 8662 8250

BANK NIFTY

DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

20869 20451 20242 20033 19615

WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

21872 20818 20291 19764 18710

MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2

22693 21025 20191 19357 17689

MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS

NIFTY 8760 - - -

BANK NIFTY 19605 - - -

PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

NIFTY 8615 8429 8375

BANK NIFTY 18960 18337 18158

Page 4: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger

Band Along with Parabolic SAR, both the indicators give early indication of Bullish or

Bearish trend of the market. Along with that the Nifty dalily Chart is Froming the strong

Bearish Pattern Which is the reversal trend Signal. As we have seen in last week the Nifty

is traded in the narrow range of 8870-8900 Levels. Now it seems that trend could be

reversal into the bearish Side in the Daily Chart has Formed the Beaish candle which is

also the signal of bear market. If the Nifty is breaking the levels of 8860-8750 level we

could witness the level of 8660-8580 in near Term. Move Toward the 8900 levels in

upcoming will lead the Nifty to break the level of 9020-9200. The Crucial levels for Nifty

is 8880-8750 down side and 8900-8940 is Upside.

Page 5: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the

Bollinger Band along with the Parabolic , The Usage of bollinger Band differ from

Trader-to-Trader indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market respectively. Thus

the Bank Nifty Chart also formed the hanging man kind of pattern. Kind of Pattern which

is a Bearish signal for market, from this Point we are Expecting if Bank Nifty Consolidate

Upcoming week. Then it would touch the level of 19950-20250 in Near-Term. If we look

into the Fundmaentals of Bank Nifty there are some action is taken to overcome the NPA

issue of Public Sector Bank. The Important levels for Bank Nifty is 20180 - 19750 down

side and 2380-20460 is up side.

Page 6: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS

COMPANY

NAME

R2 R1 PP S1 S2

ACC EQ 1708 1680 1666 1638 1624

ALBK EQ 89 87 86 84 83

AMBUJACEM EQ 278 275 273 270 268

ASIAN PAINT EQ 1186 1180 1174 1168 1162

AXISBANK EQ 628 621 616 609 604

BAJAJ-AUTO EQ 3143 3089 3053 2999 2963

BANKBARODA EQ 177 174 173 170 169

BANKINDIA EQ 127 125 123 121 119

BHEL EQ 157 156 154 153 151

BHARTIARTL EQ 330 326 322 318 314

CIPLA EQ 601 589 584 572 567

COALINDIA EQ 335 333 332 330 329

DLF EQ 163 160 156 153 149

DRREDDY EQ 3250 3220 3195 3165 3140

GAIL EQ 405 400 394 389 383

GRASIM EQ 4810 4756 4723 4669 4636

HCLTECH EQ 797 789 781 773 765

HDFC EQ 1462 1436 1416 1390 1370

HDFCBANK EQ 1303 1297 1287 1281 1271

HEROMOTOCO EQ 3766 3691 3628 3553 3490

HINDALCO EQ 166 160 157 151 148

HINDUNILVR EQ 964 947 937 920 910

ICICIBANK EQ 279 277 273 271 267

ITC EQ 267 262 260 255 253

INDUSIND BANK EQ 1237 1229 1214 1206 1191

INFY EQ 1049 1042 1034 1027 1019

JINDALSTEL EQ 91 88 84 81 77

KOTAKBANK EQ 834 827 817 810 800

LT EQ 1552 1532 1521 1501 1490

M&M EQ 1514 1495 1477 1458 1440

MRF EQ 40915 40557 40192 39834 39469

MARUTI EQ 5534 5466 5422 5354 5310

ONGC EQ 263 259 253 249 243

ORIENTBANK EQ 133 132 130 129 127

RCOM EQ 53 52 51 50 50

RELCAPITAL EQ 582 571 564 553 546

RELIANCE EQ 1059 1050 1040 1031 1021

RELINFRA EQ 642 629 622 609 602

RPOWER EQ 55 54 54 53 53

SBIN EQ 270 266 265 261 260

SSLT( VEDL) EQ 180 175 173 168 166

SUNPHARMA EQ 826 810 802 789 778

TATAMOTORS EQ 586 580 575 569 564

TATAPOWER EQ 79 78 77 76 75

TATASTEEL EQ 411 403 398 390 385

UNIONBANK EQ 154 151 150 147 146

Page 7: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

TOP 15 ACHIEVERS // TOP 15 LOOSERS

NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS )

NSE FUTURE

NSE FUTURE : BUY PNB FUTURE ABOVE 145 TGT 150 SL 142.50

NSE FUTURE : SELL SAIL FUTURE BELOW 50 TGT 47 SL 51.50

NSE FUTURE : BUY CEATLTD FUTURE ABOVE 1060 TGT 1090 SL 1045

NSE CASH

NSE CASH : BUY MOTHERSUMI NSE CASH ABOVE 342 TGT 368 SL 331.

NSE CASH : BUY TECHM NSE CASH ABOVE 465 TGT 495 SL 445.

SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE CMP % CHANGE

1 YES BANK LTD. 1388 1276 -8.07 %

2 TCS 2514 2352 -6.46 %

3 ULTRACEM 4085 3953 -3.22 %

4 TECHM 471 458 -2.87 %

5 TATA POWER 79 77 -2.28 %

6 HDFC 1439 1410 -1.98 %

7 ITC LIMITED 262 258 --1.75 %

8 HINDALCO 157 154 -1.53 %

9 AMBUJA 276 272 -1.34 %

10 IDEA 84 83 -1.01 %

11 ACC 1669 1653 -0.97 %

12 NTPC 160 158 -0.75 %

13 WIPRO 483 480 -0.63 %

14 HCL TECH 784 780 -0.51 %

15 GAIL LIMITED 394 394 -0.20 %

SR.NO SCRIPT NAME PREV CLOSE

CMP % CHANGE

1 BHEL 136 154+13.19 %

2ONGC 238 254 +6.79 %

3 TATA STEEL 374 394+5.45 %

4ICICI BANK 261 274 +4.90 %

5 MARUTI SUZUKI 5160 5403+4.70 %

6TATA MOTORS 549 573 +4.26 %

7 SBIN 254 264+3.73 %

8LUPIN LTD. 1518 1569 +3.39 %

9 BANK BARODA 166 171+3.37 %

10RELIANCE 1013 1044 +3.08 %

11 AURO PHARMA 779 802+2.92 %

12AXIS BANK LTD. 599 613 +2.22 %

13 DR. REDDY LAB 3123 3193+2.25 %

14BHARTI INFRA 343 351 +2.21 %

15 INDUSIND BANK 1192 1217+2.14 %

Page 8: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

SIT on Black Money asks RBI to develop institutional mechanism to track illicit

financial flows - Chairman, Special Investigation Team on Black Money, appointed by

the Hon’ble Supreme Court, in a letter dated 11-Aug, to Governor, RBI has impressed

upon the imperative need to establish the following institutional mechanism for sharing of

data with the RBI in its various data bases with the Enforcement Authorities so that the

data could be cross checked with other information available with Enforcement

Authorities and illicit financial flows could be curbed. (a) Foreign Exchange Transactions

Electronic Reporting System: FET–ERS was introduced through RBI Circular No.77

dated 13.March-04. All authorized dealers are obligated to report each foreign exchange

transactions. Access to this database would needs to be given to authorities like

Enforcement Directorate and Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, so that the above

analysis could be done. For this, SIT has suggested that FET–ERS data should capture the

PAN number of the importer or the exporter and that RBI take necessary steps for the

same to get this done on an urgent basis.

Nikkei India August services PMI at 54.7 - August saw a solid rebound in the rate of

expansion in Indian service sector business activity. Output was raised in response to a

marked improvement in new work inflows and increased levels of business confidence.

The trend in employment remained comparatively subdued, however, with a slight

decrease in jobs signal led for the first time since September of last year. At 54.7 in

August, up from 51.9 in July, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business

Activity Index posted its highest level for over three-and-a-half years. The headline index

has now signal led expansion in each of the past 14 months. Output grew in five of the six

monitored categories, the exception being Hotels & Restaurants. With growth of

manufacturing production also ticking higher, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India

Composite PMI Output Index climbed from 52.4 in July to a 42-month high of 54.6 in

August, highlighting a stronger improvement in private sector economic activity.

Measured across the service economy, the level of incoming new work rose at the

quickest pace for three-and-a-half years. Where an expansion was registered, companies

mainly linked this to improved market conditions. Similarly,manufacturing order books

increased at a sharp rate that was the quickest since December 2014.

RBI Governor argues for Independent Central Bank for macroeconomic stability of

the country - In his last public speech as the RBI Governor at St.Stephens College in

Page 9: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

New Delhi, Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan explained why central banking was not as easy as it

appeared - just raising or cutting interest rates - and why it needed decisions, sometimes

unpopular or hard-to-explain ones, to be made under conditions of extreme uncertainty

and argued in favor of having an independent central bank and the role and

responsibilities of the central bank governor.

The central bank governor has to make difficult policy choices often in the face of

uncertainties after weighing the alternatives as best as one can. He cited the example of

2013, when due to weak macro fundamentals the rupee tumbled and it was necessary to

get back the confidence of international investors and how he, who had just taken over as

the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, had to decide on introducing the FCNR

scheme in the midst of uncertainties. That the decision proved to be beneficial for the

country, the Reserve Bank and the banks, taught him that "Policy making invariably

involves taking measured risks in the face of uncertainty." He then made out a case for

India to have a strong and independent central bank so that it could ensure

macroeconomic stability.

It is for taking complex decisions - often difficult for the common citizens to

understand - That the central banks should be independent and should be able to say 'no'

to seemingly attractive proposals, he argued but added that at the same time, it also

cannot become free of all constraints. "It has to work under a framework set by the

Government," he said. In his view, "Frameworks reduce the space for differences" and it

was important that the constitutional authorities clearly outlined the central bank's

responsibilities. He gave two examples - a framework for inflation objective and a risk

management framework for RBI that indicated the level of equity the RBI needed, given

the risks it faced, to be adopted by the RBI Board. "The RBI did not have the luxury of

economic inconsistency," he said, be it interest rates, exchange rate, pushing banks to

clean up or paying dividend to the government.

In a poor country like India where so many people lived at the margin, the role of the

central bank was to ensure that growth did not exceed the country's potential, adopting

prudential policies that reduce the risk, and building sufficient buffers that the country

was protected against shocks. The Governor also explained the economic rationale of

why the RBI cannot pay special dividend to the government - in addition to the entire

surplus being paid out for the last three years.

High growth rate mandatory for collective well being: Arun Jaitley - A high growth

rate is a requisite if the benefits of growth are to percolate down to the last man,

Page 10: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

especially minorities. Post 1991 economic liberalization, the acceleration of growth rate

has led to substantial reduction in poverty. All communities have shown reduction in

poverty levels, however on an uneven basis, says Union Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley,

speaking at a Conference on Empowerment through Education – ‘Taalim-o-Tarbiyat’ in

Mumbai. While higher growth rate impacts all by way of offering economic

opportunities, certain minorities have lagged behind and those areas need to be addressed.

Despite the poverty rate among Muslim community declining from 52% in 1991 to about

27% in 2011, some communities like Jains and Parsis have overcome the challenge of

poverty, he said. Jaitley said education is the key to improve the conditions faster which

would aid conversion of skills into opportunities. Madarasa is an important institution in

imparting education for children of Muslim community and complimented the efforts of

leaders like Zafar Sareshwala, for blending technology and traditional teachings, he said.

Foreign portfolio investors approach government to iron out Singapore Treaty,

GAAR issues - Foreign portfolio investors are lobbying the government to resolve

problems related to the India-Singapore tax treaty and general anti-avoidance rules ,

worried about their investment in equities. FPIs fear after April 1, 2017, when both the

renegotiated India-Singapore treaty and GAAR come into force, they will face

challenges. One relates to double taxation in India and their home country. The Asia

Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association, a Hong Kong-based grouping of

FPIs and global banks, has written to the government and sought a meeting with the

revenue secretary. They say there is ambiguity on the tax treaty and lack of clarity on how

FPIs would be taxed under GAAR. One of the suggestions they've made is radical —

abolish capital gains tax and increase securities transaction tax to make up for that. Apart

from this, FPIs are of the view that capital gains exemption must be retained even under

the renegotiated India-Singapore tax treaty as otherwise investing in India through

Singapore "will not be cost effective."

Governement begins discussions for creation of secretariat to assist GST Council -

The government has begun the groundwork for creation of a secretariat to cater to the

Goods and Services Tax Council, which will be constituted after Presidential assent for

the Constitution Amendment Bill enabling implementation of the proposed tax. The

government wants the institutional arrangements ready so that the GST Council can start

deliberating the nuances of the law quickly. "Internal discussions have started. A

secretariat would support the Council's work," a government official told. The Council

will take crucial decisions, from deciding the GST rate and the exemptions to finalizing

the central, state and integrated GST laws and rules and the administrative structure. The

Council is a joint body of the states and the center, which will control two-thirds and one-

Page 11: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

third of the votes, respectively. All decisions will be taken with a three-fourth majority.

The secretariat will be responsible for speedily exchanging proposals and views between

the center and the states.

✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS

PMI rose to 54.7 points in August, up from 51.9 in July. A reading above 50 points

shows expansion, while a reading below that mark means contraction. The services index

has now signal led expansion in each of the past 14 months.

The unemployment rate for urban areas read 11.24% in August 2016, higher than the

9.18% in rural pockets.

Three out of the 10 provisionally licensed small banks are set to begin operations in the

next few months as they have met the regulatory requirements and put in place the

systems needed.

The Indian economy grew at 7.1% in the first quarter of the fiscal, with good

performance of sectors including manufacturing, electricity, financial services and public

administration.

Growth in the eight core sectors stood at 3.2% in July mainly due to sharp uptick in

refinery products and a sustained rise in coal production. The index had grown by 5.2% in

the previous month of June.

The Cabinet allowed contractors to move to the new speedier arbitration process,

approved release of 75% of the amount in dispute against bank guarantee and provided

for a conciliation board comprising of independent domain experts in new contracts.

After submission of the first list of PSUs for closure or sell off to the government, Niti

Aayog is now working on another list for disinvestment.

The special investigation team on black money has asked the Reserve Bank of India to

develop an institutional mechanism, in consultation with the revenue department, to share

export-import and foreign exchange transaction information with investigative agencies,

to curb illicit financial flows out of the country.

Page 12: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

For the first time, the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development will provide

funds to the Central Government to fund irrigation projects.

✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -

NBCC India Limited bagged projects worth Rs. 6.15 billion last month.

Reserve Bank has restricted foreign investors to increase stake further in Trent limited as

the permissible limit has been crossed.

Along with some offshore creditors, SC Lowy has taken the harsh step of recalling USD

150 million loan to JSPL after it failed to comply with certain loan covenants.

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited has commissioned the fourth and last unit of the

4x40MW Teesta Low Dam Hydro Electric Project Stage-IV in West Bengal.

DLF Limited announced the sale of its remaining 7 screens of DT Cinemas in the

national capital to Cinepolis India for nearly Rs. 640 million, thereby exiting the cinema

exhibition business.

Cadila Healthcare Limited has received an Establishment Inspection Report from the

US health regulator for its manufacturing plant in Ahmedabad.

Natco Pharma Limited said the US Patent and Trademark Office has ruled in favour of

its marketing partner Mylan by invalidating the Israel-based Teva Pharmaceuticals’

patent related to multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone 40 mg/ml.

Larsen & Toubro’s construction arm has bagged orders worth Rs. 14.58 billion across

business verticals.

Delta Corp Limited has acquired Gauss Network, which owns Adda52.com, in a part

cash, part equity deal. The value of the deal, is over Rs. 1.50 billion.

Patel Engineering Limited has won arbitration awards of over Rs. 25 billion and expects

its debt to halve on Cabinet's decision to revive construction sector.

Cipla Limited has received final approval for its Abbreviated New Drug Application for

Darifenacin extended-release tablets from the United States Food and Drug

Administration.

Page 13: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

Infosys Limited has become the latest Indian IT services company to set up a joint

venture with a local company in Saudi Arabia to tap local customers in the Islamic

Kingdom, which is using technology to transform itself from being a oil dependent

company.

Dynasty Acquisition Limited has sold 2.72 million shares in Cholamandalam

Investment and Finance Company, for a total trade price of Rs. 3 billion.

Coal India Limited will develop solar power plants of 600 MW capacity in four states,

including West Bengal and Maharashtra, under the second phase of its plan to set up a

total 1,000 MW green energy pl

Tata Steel Limited had urged Chhattisgarh government to return the money it had

deposited for purchasing land in Bastar where company had planned to set up mega steel

plant.

Indian Oil Corporation might hold 50% in a refinery being planned on the west coast if

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait do not take up the offer of an equity stake.

Wipro Limited has won an IT contract from NSB Group, one of Norways largest

transportation groups.

MIC Electronics Limited has secured a patent for its LED DigiPoster, which the

company maintains is a next generation digital display technology for various

applications across the world. The patent is valid up to the year 2028.

Mahindra & Mahindra Limited has rebranded its electric mobility portfolio as

Mahindra Electric aiming for a greater focus on technology and launch more electric

models, besides supplying powertrains to other manufacturers.

Indoco Remedies Limited said the US health regulator has inspected its Goa plant and

has issued six observations on account of violation of good manufacturing norms.

The National Highways Authority of India has awarded a Rs. 8.20 billion highway

project in Rajasthan to PNC Infratech Limited.

Ashok Leyland Limited and Nissan have decided to part ways in their loss-making light

Page 14: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

commercial vehicle joint ventures, which were formed in 2007. Ashok Leyland has

decided to buy its partners stake in the JVs floated by the two partners.

Vedanta Limited are to convene in Goa for an Extraordinary General Meeting, to

discuss the proposed absorption of Cairn India.

✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK

Reserve Bank of India governor Urjit Patel reallocated portfolios between the three

deputy governors of the central bank in his first day in charge on Tuesday. In what can

be called as his first big decision, Patel entrusted the monetary policy department,

financial market operations department and department of economic policy and research

to the senior most deputy governor R Gandhi who has also been earlier deputed at the

Securities & Exchange Board of India.

Central banks are expected to save the world. And if they can make some money along

the way for cash-strapped governments, all the better.

Take India, where outgoing Governor Raghuram Rajan has been beefing up the country's

foreign exchange reserves as a safety net against capital outflows. Income from foreign

sources rose 11.5 percent last fiscal year, enabling the Reserve Bank to pay the finance

ministry a dividend of about $ 10 billion, matching the previous year's record. That's great

timing for the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which just started doling

out pay raises to public servants. Yet it's a fraction of the US dividend. The Federal

Reserve's $ 4.5 trillion balance sheet helped generate enough profit to pay a record $ 117

billion remittance to the U.S. Treasury—including $ 19.3 billion that Congress wrung out

for highways. Other countries enjoy additional sources of income Central banks in South

Korea and France pay corporate taxes in addition to dividends.

State Bank of India hopes to kick off merger of its associates as well as Bharatiya

Mahila Bank with itself by October-end and try to complete the process by March next,

making it the 45th largest lender globally in terms of assets. Early August, the central

board of State Bank of India had approved the acquisition of all the five associate banks

and Bharatiya Mahila Bank and finalised the swap ratios for the merger. "The merger

process will start by October-end. The grievance committee will come back to us

hopefully by the end of this month, thereafter we have to send it to the Reserve Bank and

then to the government for the final approval, which may probably take a month. Post

which the merger can take place," SBI chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya told in an

interview today.

Page 15: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

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Page 16: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

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Page 17: Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

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