Advisory Solutions, Investment Publishing | Please find important legal information at the end of this document. 1/21 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT POSITIVE BACKDROP DRIVES PERFORMANCE WHAT’S THE STORY? The stage is set for the global economy to power ahead over the coming months, with the US and the eurozone in the lead. Leading indicators suggest that growth remains strong. Inflation has remained subdued recently but is expected to pick up, at least in the US, as wage pressure and the further absorption of excess capacity finally lead to higher prices. After a long period of stubbornly slow growth, the eurozone recovery has gained further momentum in 2017 and broadened significantly. This trend is not expected to change in the near-term as there is still a lot of economic catch-up potential. The European Central Bank (ECB) is in no hurry to normalise its monetary policy, according to the latest statements by its President, Mario Draghi. Therefore, economic conditions are expected to remain benign on the old continent and this is good news for domestic economies and one of the major reasons why we favour eurozone equities. Global business cycle – September 2017 As of 1 September 2017; Source: Julius Baer Macro & Commodities Research Currencies The recent strength of the euro vs. virtually all of its major peers has been a slight concern for investors. However, we believe that the tides will change slowly as market participants realise that the interest rate differentials, especially compared with the US, are likely to expand further and positive economic surprises will decelerate in Europe, both of which are typically negative for the value of a currency. We expect the euro to weaken slightly over the coming months. Fixed Income In the fixed income area, the tune over the coming months will not change i.e. investors will look closely for signs of further monetary policy normalisation, led by the Federal Reserve (Fed). We therefore stick to our long-held view to look for value in USD money market and/or variable rate instruments or, for euro-investors, to gain exposure only to bonds whose value has not been distorted by the ECB’s asset purchasing programme. Equities On the equity side, eurozone stocks have been outperforming their US peers for a while already – and we expect this trend to continue. In terms of earnings growth, eurozone companies look set to continue to trump their US peers as our strategists suggest. Valuation-wise too, we see the eurozone in the lead with its relative price/earnings ratio substantially below its historical average compared with the US. A normalisation of this ratio alone already implies significant upside potential for eurozone equities. For investors wishing to invest in US stocks, we assume that the new US administration will be gearing up to turn tax reform (including a ‘repatriation holiday’) into law in 2018. This opportunity to repatriate funds held overseas at an advantageous tax rate would benefit US corporations holding large amounts of accumulated earnings abroad, either in absolute amounts or as a proportion of their total market capitalisation. Due to their predominantly EM Asia World UK South Korea China Australia Switzerland USA France Germany Eurozone Japan Italy Canada Long-term potential growth rate Business cycle INVESTMENT VIEWS CROSS-ASSET TOPICS Q4 2017 OUTLOOK
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Advisory Solutions, Investment Publishing | Please find important legal information at the end of this document.
1/21
19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT POSITIVE BACKDROP DRIVES PERFORMANCE
WHAT’S THE STORY?
The stage is set for the global economy to power ahead
over the coming months, with the US and the eurozone in
the lead. Leading indicators suggest that growth remains
strong. Inflation has remained subdued recently but is
expected to pick up, at least in the US, as wage pressure
and the further absorption of excess capacity finally lead to
higher prices.
After a long period of stubbornly slow growth, the eurozone
recovery has gained further momentum in 2017 and
broadened significantly. This trend is not expected to
change in the near-term as there is still a lot of economic
catch-up potential. The European Central Bank (ECB) is in
no hurry to normalise its monetary policy, according to the
latest statements by its President, Mario Draghi. Therefore,
economic conditions are expected to remain benign on the
old continent and this is good news for domestic economies
and one of the major reasons why we favour eurozone
equities.
Global business cycle – September 2017
As of 1 September 2017; Source: Julius Baer Macro & Commodities Research
Currencies
The recent strength of the euro vs. virtually all of its major
peers has been a slight concern for investors. However, we
believe that the tides will change slowly as market
participants realise that the interest rate differentials,
especially compared with the US, are likely to expand
further and positive economic surprises will decelerate in
Europe, both of which are typically negative for the value of
a currency. We expect the euro to weaken slightly over the
coming months.
Fixed Income
In the fixed income area, the tune over the coming months
will not change i.e. investors will look closely for signs of
further monetary policy normalisation, led by the Federal
Reserve (Fed). We therefore stick to our long-held view to
look for value in USD money market and/or variable rate
instruments or, for euro-investors, to gain exposure only to
bonds whose value has not been distorted by the ECB’s
asset purchasing programme.
Equities
On the equity side, eurozone stocks have been
outperforming their US peers for a while already – and we
expect this trend to continue. In terms of earnings growth,
eurozone companies look set to continue to trump their US
peers as our strategists suggest. Valuation-wise too, we see
the eurozone in the lead with its relative price/earnings
ratio substantially below its historical average compared
with the US. A normalisation of this ratio alone already
implies significant upside potential for eurozone equities.
For investors wishing to invest in US stocks, we assume that
the new US administration will be gearing up to turn tax
reform (including a ‘repatriation holiday’) into law in 2018.
This opportunity to repatriate funds held overseas at an
advantageous tax rate would benefit US corporations
holding large amounts of accumulated earnings abroad,
either in absolute amounts or as a proportion of their total
market capitalisation. Due to their predominantly
EM Asia
World
UK
South Korea
China
Australia
Switzerland
USAFranceGermany
Eurozone JapanItaly
Canada
Long-term potential
growth rate
Business cycle
INVESTMENT VIEWS CROSS-ASSET TOPICS Q4 2017 OUTLOOK
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 2/21
international business models, the healthcare, industrials
and technology sectors in particular keep more cash as a
percentage of their market capitalisation offshore as
opposed to onshore when compared with other sectors.
Hence they are expected to benefit the most from the
implementation of such a policy.
Technical analysis
When it comes to technical analysis, we note that intra-
stock correlations have dropped below their long-term
average, which our analysts interpret as a sign of single
stocks trading on idiosyncratic assessments rather than on
external shocks. Therefore, active (momentum-based)
investment strategies, providing the opportunity to exploit
special situations opportunistically, are preferred compared
with passive (i.e. benchmark-bound) strategies which
typically outperform when intra-stock correlations are high.
Source: Julius Baer Strategy Research and Technical
Analysis, Research Focus: Research Outlook Q4 2017,
11 September 2017.
OUR IDEAS FOR DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIOS
Please note that the ideas shown on the following pages
are not individually tailored investment solutions. Please
consult your Julius Baer representative (relationship
manager/investment advisor) for more specific solutions
to suit your individual circumstances.
Diversified exposure to stocks across major developed
markets
Investors may consider gaining exposure to developed
market equities (ex Asia) via an actively managed
certificate, based on investment advice and
recommendations by Julius Baer Equity Research.
Eurozone equities are expected to outperform their US
peers
Investors may consider gaining exposure to the eurozone
market either via investments in single eurozone stocks or a
diversified fund.
A strengthening USD provides a tailwind to European
companies
Investors may invest in a selection of our ‘buy’ rated
European stocks which are expected to profit
fundamentally from a strengthening US dollar over the
coming 12 months.
US equities only for select investments
While we prefer the eurozone to the US overall, the positive
economic outlook provides investment opportunities in the
US too. We suggest investing in US equities via funds which
are able to opportunistically exploit special stock situations
like long/short or 130/30 (see term explained below) funds,
and/or via a diversified product which may profit from
special situations (‘repatriation holiday’).
TERM EXPLAINED: 130/30 strategy
The 130/30 strategy is a strategy that uses financial
leverage by shorting poor performing stocks and
purchasing shares that are expected to have high returns.
A 130/30 ratio implies shorting stocks up to 30% of the
portfolio value and then using the funds to take a long
position in the stocks the investor feels will outperform the
market. Often, investors will mimic an index such as the
S&P 500 when choosing stocks for this strategy.
Source: Investopedia.com, Julius Baer Investment Publishing
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 3/21
INVESTMENT PRODUCTS
Diversified exposure to stocks across major developed markets – AMC on JB Most Preferred Equities
Investment case
• With an overall positive economic backdrop, equity
markets across the developed world may profit from
ongoing positive momentum. The actively managed
certificate (AMC) on JB Most preferred equities syncs our
analysts’ high conviction calls with our house view in
terms of regions and sectors.
Product description
• Julius Baer Actively Managed Certificates are financial
instruments which allow the investor to fully participate in
the positive performance of the underlying, but which also
reflect the development of the underlying if its per-
formance is negative.
• The AMC on the JB Most Preferred Equities is an actively
managed portfolio of equities, which is based on the
investment advice and recommendations of Julius Baer
Equity Research.
• It consists of up to 60 stocks selected from the universe of
liquid shares and depository receipts of publicly traded
companies listed in North America and Europe. The final
portfolio reflects the high conviction and buy-rated picks
of our single title analysts squared with a strategic overlay
representing our house view.
• The product is suitable for investors with a considerable
risk tolerance.
• Julius Baer provides a secondary market for the product,
but investors should be aware of the spread risk (bid/ask
margin).
Source: Julius Baer Strategy Research
Please contact your Julius Baer representative (relationship
manager/investment advisor) for further information on
this product and its suitability given your individual
investment profile.
Top 5 largest holdings
As of 18 September 2017, 09:17 CET; weighting as of 11 September 2017; Source: Julius Baer Strategy Research
Julius Baer product risk rating
Product characteristics
As of 18 September 2017, 09:10 CET; Source: Julius Baer Strategy Research
Allocation by country
Allocations as of 11 September 2017; Source: Julius Baer
Company ISIN Ccy Price Weighting
Facebook Inc. US30303M1027 USD 171.64 4.45%
Adobe Systems US00724F1012 USD 154.49 4.29%
Visa Inc. US92826C8394 USD 105.30 4.22%
Broadcom Limited SG9999014823 USD 250.55 3.89%
Lonza Group CH0013841017 CHF 252.90 3.27%
Underlying
Number of Holdings
Currency EUR
(composite)
USD
(composite)
ISIN CH0111985161 CH0346451864
Participation
Fixing/Issue Date 30.04.2010 03.07.2017
Issue Price EUR 100.00 USD 100.00
Ask price as of 18.09.2017 EUR 192.40 USD 106.00
Maturity
Issuer
Issuer rating A2 (Moody's)
100%
JB Most Preferred Equities
Between 20 and 60
Open End
Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich
51.82%
9.15%
8.06%
6.11%
5.34%
4.87%
14.66%
USA France Switzerland
Germany Netherlands Spain
Others
Low Moderate Considerable High
Lower risk Higher risk
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 4/21
Eurozone equities are expected to outperform their US peers – BGF Continental European Flex Fund
Investment case
• Market friendly political developments as well as strong
earnings growth support the investment case for
eurozone equities.
• This fund pursues a broadly diversified investment
strategy and has achieved a strong track record by
investing across the European equity spectrum.
Fund description
• The fund invests primarily in a portfolio of continental
European equity securities, with at least 70% of total
assets being devoted to the European ex-UK region, and it
pursues an all-cap strategy.
• The fund has a bias towards industrials and consumer
goods, and focuses on Germany, France and Switzerland
for over 50% of its asset allocation.
• It is managed within a multi-faceted quantitative risk
context, based on Blackrock’s renowned in-house analysis.
• The fund manager seeks investment opportunities
offering a combination of positive sentiment towards the
stock and above-average business performance of the
company.
• With over 22 years of experience, the head portfolio
manager boasts a strong track record.
Key risks
• The fund invests in equities and equity-related securities
whose value can be affected by daily stock market
movements.
• The fund’s investment focus will present a relative
performance headwind in trendless markets.
Source: Julius Baer Funds
Please contact your Julius Baer representative (relationship
manager/investment advisor) for further information on
this fund and its suitability given your individual investment
profile.
Julius Baer product risk rating
Fund performance
5-year performance, in percentage (net)
As of 18 September 2017, 09:32 CET; Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Investment Publishing
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Performance returns take into account all ongoing charges
but not transaction fees. The value of your investment
may go down as well as up meaning that you may not get
back your initial investment.
Fund characteristics
As of 18 September 2017, 18:18 CET; Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Investment Publishing; Disclosure: BlackRock Inc. holds voting rights in Julius Baer Group Ltd.
Additional Information: Provider: BlackRock (Luxembourg) S.A.; Swiss paying agent: J.P. Morgan Chase Bank NA; Swiss representative: BlackRock Asset Management Schweiz AG
Please find supporting documents (fund fact sheet, prospectus, annual report, etc.) on www.fundinfo.com, or contact your Julius Baer representative for further information.
Benchmark MSCI Europe Ex UK NR EUR
Currency EUR
Other currencies GBP-h, USD-h
ISIN LU0224105477
NAV as of 15.09.2017 EUR 24.34
Size as of 31.08.2017 EUR 3,087.53 million
Domicile Luxembourg
Inception date 24.11.1986
Ongoing charge 1.81% p.a.
Sales Registrations AT, CH, DE, HK, IR, LU, NL, SG, SP, UK,
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 5/21
Eurozone equities are expected to outperform their US peers – selected equities
As of 18 September 2017, 09:35 CET; Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Equity Research, Julius Baer Investment Publishing
A strengthening USD provides a tailwind to European companies – European stocks with a high revenue exposure to the US dollar area
As of 18 September 2017, 09:36 CET; Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Event Driven Research, Julius Baer Investment Publishing Disclosure: Swiss Re: Julius Baer holds > 0.5% net short position of the total issued share capital.
Please refer to the specific Julius Baer Insight Equity Research reports which are available on request for further information on the stocks mentioned above. Additionally, you may wish to consult your Julius Baer representative (relationship manager/investment advisor) to discuss which of these product recommendations may be appropriate given your individual investment profile.
Fresenius DE0005785604 Germany Health Services EUR 70.35 20.78 46% Buy T. McManus
Grifols, Class A ES0171996087 Germany Health Technology EUR 20.68 23.90 64% Buy T. McManus
Shire JE00B2QKY057 Netherlands Health Technology EUR 136.60 31.42 73% Buy T. McManus
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 6/21
US equities only for select investments – Artemis US Extended Alpha Fund
Investment case
• While we prefer the eurozone to the US in relative terms,
the broadly positive economic outlook also provides
investment opportunities in the latter. Investors may find
value in a fund which can profit in both up and down-
markets.
Fund description
• With this fund investors get actively managed exposure to
the American equity markets through an experienced
London based investment team.
• The fund follows an investment process based on the
selection of individual securities. It leads to a portfolio
composed of the manager’s best convictions aiming to
profit from both rising and declining markets and
securities.
• The investor benefits from the know-how of an
experienced and dedicated team of seven investment
professionals. The founding team members have been
working together for a decade and launched this
investment strategy at their former employer.
• This fund is suitable for investors who would like to invest
in American companies. It is expected to move in line with
the underlying market and to outperform its benchmark
over an investment cycle.
Key risks
• Equity market risk is the main risk to be considered for
this fund as the manager intends to stay fully invested at
all times. The fund’s performance is therefore highly
dependent on the returns of the American equity market.
• As the portfolio composition of this fund may
substantially differ from the index composition, it may
underperform in the short and medium-term.
• In addition to the traditional equity risk, this fund carries
credit and liquidity risk too as the portfolio may have an
exposure to the equity markets that is above 100%.
Source: Julius Baer Funds
Please contact your Julius Baer representative (relationship
manager/investment advisor) for further information on
this fund and its suitability given your individual investment
profile.
Julius Baer product risk rating
Fund performance
Since inception, in percentage (net)
As of 18 September 2017, 09:36 CET; Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Investment Publishing
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Performance returns take into account all ongoing charges
but not transaction fees. The value of your investment
may go down as well as up meaning that you may not get
back your initial investment.
Fund characteristics
As of 18 September 2017, 18:17 CET; Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Investment Publishing
Additional Information: Provider: Artemis Fund Managers Limited; Swiss paying agent: RBC Investor Services Bank S.A. Zweigniederlassung Zürich; Swiss representative: RBC Investor Services Bank S.A. Zweigniederlassung Zürich.
Please find supporting documents (fund fact sheet, prospectus, annual report, etc.) on www.fundinfo.com, or contact your Julius Baer representative for further information.
Please find supporting documents (fund fact sheet, prospectus, annual report, etc.) on www.fundinfo.com, or contact your Julius Baer representative for further information.
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 10/21
Still relative value in select EUR fixed income segments – GAM Star Credit Opportunities Fund
Investment case
• In fixed income, we still prefer credit over duration as we
expect yields to drift higher over time, at least in
developed markets.
• As credit is not cheap, we concentrate on niches like
deeply subordinated bank debt, where prices have not
been distorted by heavy central bank buying over recent
months.
Fund description
• The strategy invests predominantly in subordinated
bonds of financial and corporate institutions including
hybrids, contingent convertibles and other specialised
bond structures. Subordinated bonds are generally lower
in quality and hence have a lower credit rating than senior
bonds, but they do offer higher yields.
• Investors benefit from the multi-decade experience of
Atlanticomnium, an independent boutique asset manager
that specialises in credit investing. Due to the broader
focus, the strategy generally offers more diversification
than other funds investing in hybrid securities.
• The management approach is driven by the fact that high
quality companies rarely default and hence become
interesting along the capital structure, which includes
subordinated debt. This debt is generally lower quality,
but at the same time offers significantly more yield. Half
of the resulting portfolio represents a core allocation and
is concentrated in a small number of companies while the
residual is invested in many different satellite positions.
• The fund is suitable for investors looking to generate high
income but with the willingness to accept more volatility
than there is in traditional fixed income funds.
Key risks
• The fund is one of the higher volatility funds in the fixed
income space and is suitable for investors who are aiming
for yields in the mid to high single digits and who are also
able to accept drawdowns of a similar magnitude over an
investment period.
• The fund invests in fixed interest securities such as
corporate bonds, which pay fixed or variable coupons.
These securities are therefore exposed to changes in
interest rates, which will affect the value of any securities
held.
Source: Julius Baer Funds
Please contact your Julius Baer representative (relationship
manager/investment advisor) for further information on
this fund and its suitability given your individual investment
profile.
Julius Baer product risk rating
Fund performance
5-year performance, in percentage (net)
As of 18 September, 10:11 CET; Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Investment Publishing
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Performance returns take into account all ongoing charges
but not transaction fees. The value of your investment
may go down as well as up meaning that you may not get
back your initial investment.
Fund characteristics
As of 18 September 2017, 18:16 CET; Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Investment Publishing
Additional Information: Provider: GAM Fund Management Limited; Swiss paying agent: State Street Bank GmbH; Swiss representative: GAM Capital Management (Switzerland) AG
Please find supporting documents (fund fact sheet, prospectus, annual report, etc.) on www.fundinfo.com, or contact your Julius Baer representative for further information.
Benchmark Barclays Euro Agg Corps TR EUR
Currency EUR
Other currencies CHF
ISIN IE00B567SW70
NAV as of 14.09.2017 EUR 18.08
Size as of 14.09.2017 EUR 3,661.84 million
Domicile Ireland
Inception date 05.07.2011
Ongoing charge 1.54% p.a.
Sales Registrations AT, CH, DE, NL, SG, SP, UK, others
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 13/21
Frequently used terms
Bbl Barrel Bn Billion Bu Bushel
CCY Currency Conversion premium
Percentage amount of price paid for the convert-ible security exceeding its current straight price.
CPN Coupon
Delta The ratio comparing the change in the underlying asset to the corresponding change in the price of a derivative (in %)
DUR Duration in years DY Dividend yield
EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes
EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation
ECB European Central Bank
EPS Earnings per share ETC Exchange Traded Commodity
ETF Exchange Traded Fund
Fed United States Federal Reserve System
GDP Gross Domestic Product Incr. Increment; smallest possible positive change of the nominal amount tradable (on top of the minimum nominal investment size)
ISIN International Securities Identification Number
KG Kilogram Lb Pound
mBtu Million British Thermal Units
Mdy’s Moody’s Mn Million
NAV Net asset value Nom. Nominal; minimum nominal investment size (in respective currency)
Oz Ounces
P/B Price-to-book value P/E Price-to-earnings ratio PEG P/E divided by year-on-year EPS growth
Payment rank
Rank with respect to payment of distributions for the security.
QE Quantative easing ROE Return on equity
Stop loss Typically a closing order to sell a security at a specified price in order to limit an investor’s loss on a security position.
TER Total expense ratio T tonne
YAS Yield adjusted spread; option adjusted risk premium in basis points over respective government bond yield curve
YTC Yield to Call; in % YTM Yield to maturity; in %
YTP Yield to Put; in % YTW Yield to Worst; in % y/y Year-on-year
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 14/21
Indices
AEX Amsterdam Exchange Index (Dutch stock market index)
CAC40 Cotation Assistée en Continu (French stock market index)
DAX Deutscher Aktien Index (German stock market index)
FTSE100 FTSE Group Index (London stock market index)
HIS Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong stock market index)
KFX Copenhagen Index (Danish stock market index)
MEXBOL Mexican Bolsa (Mexican stock market index)
OMX Stockholm Index (Swedish stock market index)
SMI Swiss Market Index
SPX Standard & Poor’s Index TPX Topix – Tokyo Stock Price Index (Japanese stock market index)
Major currencies Other currencies
AUD Australian dollar JPY Japanese yen BRL Brazilian real MXN Mexican peso
CHF Swiss franc NZD New Zealand dollar CNY Chinese yuan
(onshore version)
PLN Polish zloty
EUR Euro SEK Swedish krona CZK Czech koruna RMB Chinese renminbi
GBP British pound USD US dollar HUF Hungarian forint RUB Russian rouble
INR Indian rupee TRY Turkish lira
KRW Korean won ZAR South African rand
Methodologies
EQUITIES
Rating system (stocks)
Buy Expected to outperform the MSCI regional industry group by at least 5% in the coming 9–12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Hold Expected to perform in line (±5%) with the MSCI regional industry group in the coming 9–12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Reduce Expected to underperform the MSCI regional industry group by at least 5% in the coming 9–12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Risk rating system
The risk rating (High/Medium/Low) is a measure of a stock’s expected volatility and risk of losses in case of negative news flows. This non-quantitative rating is based on criteria such as historical volatility, industry, earnings risk, valuation and balance sheet strength.
Frequency of equity rating updates
The Buy-rated equities are updated quarterly. The Hold and Reduce-rated equities are updated semi-annually or on an ad-hoc basis.
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 15/21
FIXED INCOME
Rating system
Buy Within its risk category, the issuer is highly recommended due to its financial and business condition (strong balance sheet, income statement, cash flow and good position in the industry). Debt instruments of the issuer are regarded as an attractive investment from a risk/return perspective.
Hold Maintain position based on stable credit fundamentals and/or average expected return characteristics within peer group.
Sell The rating is changed to Sell, depending on a significant deterioration in the fundamental data of the issuer in relation to the industry peers. The investment is no longer justified from a risk/return perspective for the relevant category.
Risk categories
Conservative Incorporates supranational issuers, top-rated sovereign issuers and bodies that are directly and fully guaranteed by these institutions. These issuers are most likely to preserve their top rating throughout the business cycle.
Quality Incorporates sovereign and corporate issuers that are very likely to service and repay debt within a five-year credit scenario. They are likely to preserve their investment-grade rating throughout a normal business cycle.
Opportunistic Incorporates issuers that are quite likely to service and repay debt within the five-year credit scenario. Such issuers have an attractive risk/return profile in the current credit scenario but are subject to rating downgrade risk and, thus, might be exchanged periodically.
Speculative Incorporates sub-investment-grade issuers in Europe and the USA as well as local issuers in emerging markets. Issuers are likely to service and repay debt in the current credit scenario. Investors must note that these issuers are subject to a higher downgrade and default frequency and that an active management of these positions is crucial.
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 16/21
Credit ratings, following the definitions and methodology of credit rating agencies
Inv
est
me
nt
gra
de
Moody’s S&P Fitch /
I BCA Credit rating definition
Aaa AAA AAA Obligations rated Aaa are judged to be of the higher quality, with minimal credit risk.
Aa1 Aa2 Aa3
AA+ AA AA-
AA AA-
Obligations rated Aa are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low credit risk.
A1 A2 A3
A+ A A-
A+ A A-
Obligations rated A are considered upper-medium grade and are subject to low credit risk.
Baa1 Baa2 Baa3
BBB+ BBB BBB-
BBB+ BBB BBB-
Obligations rated Baa are subject to moderate credit risk. They are considered medium-grade and as such may possess certain speculative characteristics.
No
n-i
nv
est
me
nt
gra
de
Ba1 Ba2 Ba3
BB+ BB BB-
BB+ BB BB-
Obligations rated Ba are judged to have speculative elements and are subject to substantial credit risk.
B1 B2 B3
B+ B B-
B+ B B-
Obligations rated B are considered speculative and are subject to high credit risk.
Caa1 Caa2 Caa3
CCC+ CCC CCC-
CCC+ CCC CCC-
Obligations rated Caa are judged to be of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk.
Ca CC C
CC+ CC CC-
Obligations rated Ca are highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery of principal and interest.
C D DDD Obligations rated C are the lowest rated class of bonds and are typically in default, with little prospect for recovery of principal or interest.
Frequency of issuer rating updates
The issuer ratings are updated semi-annually, on a rating change or on an ad-hoc basis.
COMMODITIES
Rating system
Bullish We see upside to the futures curve.
Neutral We believe the futures curve is fairly priced.
Bearish We see downside to the futures curve.
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 17/21
CURRENCIES
Rating system
For each of the currencies in our universe we award a bullish, neutral or bearish ranking based on the following method of calculation. Calculation procedure: the currency ratings are based on the forecasted spot exchange rate against the US dollar. The forecasted spot exchange rates are used to determine the total expected returns by calculating the percentage deviation from the respective forward exchange rates. If forward exchange rates are not available, then non-deliverable forward exchange rates are used. The expected total return is adjusted by the implied volatility of the exchange rate. The resulting volatility-adjusted total returns are scaled by using a normal distribution function. Currencies in the top quartile of the scaled ranking are awarded with a bullish ranking while currencies in the bottom quartile receive a bearish ranking. The currencies in-between are ranked neutral.
The methodologies mentioned above are based on Julius Baer Research.
FUNDS
Investment styles
Independent growth Aims to achieve positive return over a cash benchmark irrespective of market movements. May be appropriate for clients aiming to generate steady returns.
Opportunistic Focus on investment ideas of high conviction managers which could also result in underperformance in the shorter term. May be appropriate for long term oriented investors.
Market exposure Aiming to outperform the benchmark while providing a full and diversified exposure to the respective market. May be appropriate for investments in markets expected to outperform.
Prudent participation
Controlled exposure to the underlying universe with a higher focus on limitation of losses rather than fully capturing the upside. May be appropriate for clients aiming to achieve a cautious stance towards a market.
Distribution types
Accumulation All capital income (e.g. dividends, interest income) is reinvested.
Income Capital income (e.g. dividends, interest income) is distributed among investors. The amount of distributed capital income is at the discretion of the fund manager.
Julius Baer product risk rating
The Julius Baer Product Risk Rating divides financial instruments into four risk categories taking into account different risk factors, such as volatility, credit default risk, currency risk and other risk factors, depending on the instrument type. The risk category “Low” does not mean “risk free”. The Julius Baer Product Risk Rating is not aligned with the risk classification of the product provider (e.g. the SSRI for UCITS funds). For a full discussion of the risks associated with an investment in this fund, prospective investors should carefully review the current official fund documentation, such as the Prospectus, the Offering Memorandum, Product Highlight Sheet, Key Facts Sheet and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID), as applicable.
Low Funds of the category “low” tend to experience small fluctuations of the investment value under normal market conditions, resulting in a very limited potential for capital losses but also have limited potential for income and capital growth.
Moderate Funds of the category “moderate” offer a combination of modest income and growth potential but may experience short term losses and moderate fluctuations of the investment value.
Considerable Funds of the category “considerable” may experience the risk of considerable fluctuation of the investment value while offering higher potential for capital growth and income.
High Funds of the category “high” are exposed to significant risk and fluctuation including the loss of the investment value, while providing the potential to maximize long term growth opportunities.
Q4 2017 OUTLOOK – EQUITIES STILL IN A SWEET SPOT | 19 SEPTEMBER 2017, 08:53 CET 18/21
Frequency of fund rating updates
The fund ratings are updated monthly. In some special cases, ratings may be updated more frequently than monthly. Due to specific investment philosophies you cannot expect a fund manager to outperform every calendar year and, therefore, actively managed funds are not appropriate for short-term investment.
STRUCTURED PRODUCTS
Frequency of structured products rating updates
The recommendations are not updated on a regular basis but are depending on their fixed duration.
General
This publication constitutes marketing material and is
not the result of independent financial research.
Therefore the legal requirements regarding the
independence of financial research do not apply. This
material is not independent from the proprietary
interests of Julius Baer (e.g. certain Julius Baer products
may be mentioned in this publication), which may
conflict with your interests.
The information and opinions expressed in this
publication were produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co.
Ltd., Zurich, as of the date of writing and are subject to
change without notice. This publication is intended for
information purposes only and does not constitute
an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer
to buy or sell any securities or related financial
instruments or to participate in any particular trading
strategy in any jurisdiction. Opinions and comments of
the authors reflect their current views, but not
necessarily of other Julius Baer entities or any other third
party. Other Julius Baer entities may have issued, and
may in the future issue, other publications that are
inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from,
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Suitability
Investments in the asset classes mentioned in this
publication may not be suitable for all recipients and may
not be available in all countries. Clients of Julius Baer
are kindly requested to get in touch with the local
Julius Baer entity in order to be informed about the
services and/or products available in such country.
This publication has been prepared without taking
account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of
any particular investor. Before entering into any
transaction, investors should consider the suitability of
the transaction to individual circumstances and
objectives. Any investment or trading or other decision
should only be made by the client after a thorough
reading of the relevant product term sheet, subscription
agreement, information memorandum, prospectus or
other offering document relating to the issue of the
securities or other financial instruments. Where
reference to a specific research report is made this
publication should not be read in isolation without
reference to this full research report which may be
provided upon request. Nothing in this publication
constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice,
or a representation that any investment or strategy is
suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances, or
otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to any
specific investor. Any references to a particular tax
treatment depend on the individual circumstances of
each investor and may be subject to change in the
future. Julius Baer recommends that investors
independently assess, with a professional advisor, the
specific financial risks as well as legal, regulatory, credit,
tax and accounting consequences.
Information / forecasts referred to
Although the information and data herein are obtained
from sources believed to be reliable, no representation is
made that the information is accurate or complete. In
particular, the information provided in this publication
may not cover all material information on the financial
instruments or issuers of such instruments.
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