47‘ it 1, ;z-.~c«.=;.g.»~1-;. >3;-x4?i~“£{5}¢.s:.;g'§=x‘£c\§;E‘r:%t- ;-,«~‘,~, TO BOOM OR NOT TO BOOM? MINERAL RESOURCES IN THE ASIAN CENTURY Gavin Mudd considers the economic, social and environmental impacts of Australia's mining boom as the nation rushes to meet Asia's demand for resources THE CONVERSATION he 20th century belonged to the West — not only N in military terms but primarily in resource cons- umption. This century is expected to be dominated by Asia. Given the generally high per capita consumption ofa range of resources by developed nations, we must ask a fundamental question: can the world provide the same material standards ofliving for Asia without bankrupting the global ecological bank? Australia and Brazil have both found massive iron ore resources and now dominate seabome global iron ore exports. Surprisingly, the answer can be either yes or no — depending on ones point of view (as Obi Wan famously opined). Optimists point to the history of continually growing mineral and metal production and economic resources throughout the 20th century and say “no worries”. Technology, exploration and economics are their friends. Pessimists decry the near exponential growth of production and consumption ofnon-renewable resources and claim such patterns are inherently unsustainable. Simple mathematics and environmental limits are their focus. Realists see the merit in both points of view. BOOM TIME Let us explore the nature of economic mineral resources. in todays world, we mine fossil fuels, base metals, precious metals, ferrous metals, light metals, energy metals and a wide variety of miscellaneous minerals and metals — a significant majority of the known elements. Although some elements are abundant throughout Earth’s crust, such as iron or aluminium, all minerals need to be found in deposits both high in concentration and easy to process to be worth mining. Throughout the past two centuries, the world has been scoured for new deposits which could be profi table to mine — and in many countries the mining industry continues to find more. For example, Australia and Brazil have both found massive iron ore resources and now dominate seaborne global iron ore exports. Parts ofAfrica now look set to repeat this pattern. On the technology front, major advances in mining and ore processing have enabled breakthroughs in metal issues in Society | Volume 350 and mineral production. Prominent examples include the development of floatation technology for metal sulfide ores (now widely used in Copper, lead—zinc, nickel, gold mining). carbon in pulp technology which uses cyanide in gold mining, solvent extraction-electrowinning technology, safer and cheaper explosives, bigger and bigger diggers and trucks, more efficient grinding technology, and so on. On the social front, community opposition to projects and commodities is growing and placing substantial pressure on the ability of the mining industry to develop new projects. On the economic front, the long—term trend is con- tinually growing demand to meet consumption patterns. There can be the occasional hiccup during an economic downturn, but the trend is inexorably up — boom times aplenty for a miner. Global per capita steel consumption has increased from 150 kg per capita in 2001 to 203 kg per capita in 2010. Allow for growing consumption in China’s 1.3 billion people and India's 1.2 billion people (not to forget Africa’s billion people or South Americas halfa billion). New cities are born, infrastructure built, manufactured goods made and exported — the sheer scale ofcurrent and prospective future demand for minerals and metals is indeed stark. 27 Australia's Engagement with Asia
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47‘
it
1,;z-.~c«.=;.g.»~1-;.
>3;-x4?i~“£{5}¢.s:.;g'§=x‘£c\§;E‘r:%t-
;-,«~‘,~,
TO BOOM OR NOT TO BOOM? MINERALRESOURCES IN THE ASIAN CENTURY
Gavin Mudd considers the economic, social and environmental impacts ofAustralia's mining boom as the nation rushes to meet Asia's demand for resources
THE CONVERSATIONhe 20th century belonged to the West — not only
N in military terms but primarily in resource cons-umption. This century is expected to be dominated
by Asia.Given the generally high per capita consumption ofa
range of resources by developed nations, we must ask afundamental question: can the world provide the same
material standards ofliving for Asia without bankruptingthe global ecological bank?
Australia and Brazil have both foundmassive iron ore resources and now
dominate seabome global iron ore exports.
Surprisingly, the answer can be either yes or no —
depending on ones point of view (as Obi Wan famouslyopined). Optimists point to the history of continuallygrowing mineral and metal production and economicresources throughout the 20th century and say “no
worries”. Technology, exploration and economics aretheir friends.
Pessimists decry the near exponential growth ofproduction and consumption ofnon-renewable resourcesand claim such patterns are inherently unsustainable.Simple mathematics and environmental limits are theirfocus.
Realists see the merit in both points of view.
BOOM TIMELet us explore the nature of economic mineral
resources. in todays world, we mine fossil fuels, base
metals, precious metals, ferrous metals, light metals, energy
metals and a wide variety of miscellaneous minerals andmetals — a significant majority of the known elements.
Although some elements are abundant throughoutEarth’s crust, such as iron or aluminium, all minerals
need to be found in deposits both high in concentrationand easy to process to be worth mining.
Throughout the past two centuries, the world hasbeen scoured for new deposits which could be profitableto mine — and in many countries the mining industrycontinues to find more. For example, Australia and Brazil
have both found massive iron ore resources and nowdominate seaborne global iron ore exports. Parts ofAfricanow look set to repeat this pattern.
On the technology front, major advances in mining
and ore processing have enabled breakthroughs in metal
issues in Society | Volume 350
and mineral production. Prominent examples include thedevelopment of floatation technology for metal sulfideores (now widely used in Copper, lead—zinc, nickel, goldmining). carbon in pulp technology which uses cyanidein gold mining, solvent extraction-electrowinningtechnology, safer and cheaper explosives, bigger and biggerdiggers and trucks, more efficient grinding technology,and so on.
On the social front, community oppositionto projects and commodities is growing andplacing substantial pressure on the ability ofthe mining industry to develop new projects.
On the economic front, the long—term trend is con-tinually growing demand to meet consumption patterns.There can be the occasional hiccup during an economicdownturn, but the trend is inexorably up — boom timesaplenty for a miner.
Global per capita steel consumption has increased
from 150 kg per capita in 2001 to 203 kg per capita in2010. Allow for growing consumption in China’s 1.3 billionpeople and India's 1.2 billion people (not to forget Africa’sbillion people or South Americas halfa billion). New citiesare born, infrastructure built, manufactured goods madeand exported — the sheer scale ofcurrent and prospectivefuture demand for minerals and metals is indeed stark.
27Australia's Engagement with Asia
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