Envisioning Envisioning Future Landscape Future Landscape Trajectories Trajectories An Alternative Futures An Alternative Futures Approach to Understanding Approach to Understanding Dynamics of Landscape Dynamics of Landscape Change Change John Bolte John Bolte Biological & Ecological Engineering Biological & Ecological Engineering Department Department Oregon State University Oregon State University
Envisioning Future Landscape Trajectories. An Alternative Futures Approach to Understanding Dynamics of Landscape Change John Bolte Biological & Ecological Engineering Department Oregon State University. Today’s Discussion. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Envisioning Envisioning Future Future
Landscape Landscape TrajectoriesTrajectoriesAn Alternative Futures Approach to An Alternative Futures Approach to
Understanding Dynamics of Understanding Dynamics of Landscape ChangeLandscape Change
John BolteJohn BolteBiological & Ecological Engineering DepartmentBiological & Ecological Engineering Department
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University
Today’s DiscussionToday’s Discussion
Overview of alternative futures approach to Overview of alternative futures approach to understanding landscape dynamicsunderstanding landscape dynamics
Description of one approach using Description of one approach using EnvisionEnvision
Example applicationsExample applications
H.J. Andrews LTERH.J. Andrews LTER
Puget SoundPuget Sound
Alternative Futures Alternative Futures ProjectsProjects
Examine multiple Examine multiple scenariosscenarios of trends and of trends and assumptions about future conditions, assumptions about future conditions, generally using one or more models of change, generally using one or more models of change,
Assist in incorporating Assist in incorporating stakeholder stakeholder interactionsinteractions to define to define goals, constraints, goals, constraints, trajectories, drivers, outcomestrajectories, drivers, outcomes
Allow Allow visualizationvisualization of the results in a variety of of the results in a variety of types and formatstypes and formats
Ultimately are intended to assist in improving Ultimately are intended to assist in improving land management decision-makingland management decision-making
Based on modeling Based on modeling behavior and actionsbehavior and actions of of autonomous, adaptive agents (actors)autonomous, adaptive agents (actors)
Our approach: spatially explicit, represents Our approach: spatially explicit, represents land management decisions of entities land management decisions of entities ((actorsactors) with authority over parcels of land) with authority over parcels of land
Actor decisionsActor decisions implemented through policies implemented through policies that guide & constrain potential actionsthat guide & constrain potential actions
Actors Decision-makers managing the landscape by selecting policies responsive to their objectives
Policies
Fundamental Descriptors of constraints and actions defining land use management
decisionmaking
ScenarioDefinition
Autonomous Change Processes
Models of Non-anthropogenic Landscape Change
Landscape Production Models
Generating Landscape Metrics Reflecting Ecosystem Service Productions
Multiagent Decision-making
Select policies and generate land
management decision affecting landscape
pattern
Landscape Spatial Container in which landscape
changes, ES Metrics are
depicted
ENVISIONENVISION – Triad of Relationships – Triad of Relationships
Polic
ies
Inte
ntio
nsActors
Values
LandscapesMetrics of Production
Provide a common frame of referenceProvide a common frame of referencefor actors, policies and landscape productionsfor actors, policies and landscape productions
Landscape policies are decisions or plans of Landscape policies are decisions or plans of action for accomplishing desired outcomes.action for accomplishing desired outcomes.
from:from:
Lackey, R.T. 2006. Axioms of ecological Lackey, R.T. 2006. Axioms of ecological policy. Fisheries. 31(6): 286-290.policy. Fisheries. 31(6): 286-290.
Policies in ENVISIONPolicies in ENVISION Policies are a decision or plan of action for Policies are a decision or plan of action for
accomplishing a desired outcome; they are a accomplishing a desired outcome; they are a fundamental unit of computationfundamental unit of computation in Evoland in Evoland
Describe actions available to actorsDescribe actions available to actors
Primary CharacteristicsPrimary Characteristics::
Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query)Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query)
Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative models)models)
Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection and application of the Policyand application of the Policy
ExampleExample: [: [Purchase conservations easement to allow Purchase conservations easement to allow revegetation of degraded riparian areasrevegetation of degraded riparian areas] in [] in [areas areas with no built structures and high channel migration with no built structures and high channel migration capacitycapacity] when [] when [native fish habitat becomes scarcenative fish habitat becomes scarce]]
Models in ENVISIONModels in ENVISION Models are “plug-ins” of two types:Models are “plug-ins” of two types:
1)1) Autonomous ProcessesAutonomous Processes: Represent : Represent processes causing landscape changes processes causing landscape changes independent of human decision-making independent of human decision-making – e.g. climate change, vegetative – e.g. climate change, vegetative succession, forest growth, fire, succession, forest growth, fire, flooding, ??? flooding, ???
2)2) Evaluative Models Evaluative Models – Generate – Generate production statistics and report back production statistics and report back how well the landscape is doing a how well the landscape is doing a producing metrics of interest – e.g. producing metrics of interest – e.g. carbon sequestration, habitat carbon sequestration, habitat production, land availability, risk, ???production, land availability, risk, ???
Models in ENVISIONModels in ENVISION A well-defined, relatively simple, yet robust A well-defined, relatively simple, yet robust
interface specificationinterface specification is defined for both is defined for both Autonomous Processes and Evaluative Models.Autonomous Processes and Evaluative Models.
Models can expose Models can expose input input andand output variables output variables
Models have Models have full access full access to to the underlying the underlying spatial representation, policy sets, exposed spatial representation, policy sets, exposed variables, actor representation, and spatial variables, actor representation, and spatial engineengine
Models can make changes to the Models can make changes to the underlying underlying landscape representationlandscape representation
EnvisionEnvision automatically manages automatically manages all exposed all exposed model datamodel data
Status Quo Status Quo – continue current trends– continue current trends
Managed Growth Managed Growth – adopt a suite of additional – adopt a suite of additional policies aimed at conserving/restoring habitats, policies aimed at conserving/restoring habitats, protecting resource lands, emphasizing denser protecting resource lands, emphasizing denser development pattern near urban areasdevelopment pattern near urban areas
Unconstrained Growth Unconstrained Growth – allow lower density – allow lower density patterns, less habitat protection, less resource patterns, less habitat protection, less resource land protectionland protection
Puget Sound
South Sound
Bainbridge Island
Ferry Terminal Area
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned Alternative future assessments are fundamentally Alternative future assessments are fundamentally place-basedplace-based
and and client-dependentclient-dependent: : Each application is differentEach application is different..
CommonalitiesCommonalities do exist and should be exploited within an do exist and should be exploited within an extensible, adaptable DSS extensible, adaptable DSS frameworkframework
Good software design Good software design is criticalis critical
Engagement with stakeholdersEngagement with stakeholders is critical to define decision is critical to define decision processes, desired outcomes endpointsprocesses, desired outcomes endpoints
Defensible, Defensible, place-specific models place-specific models are criticalare critical