Environmental Scenario of Jammu and Kashmir: Indicators and Trends

SHAKIL A ROMSHOO PROF. AND HEAD, DEPT OF EARTH SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF KASHMIR

ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO IN J&K: INDICATORS AND TRENDS

PRESENTATION SCHEME !  HIMALAYAS: OUR CROWN JEWEL

!  DEPLETING WATER RESOURCES

!  DEGRADING WETLANDS/WATER BODIES

!  RECKLESS URBANIZATION

!  LAND SYSTEM CHANGES, WQ & FOOD

!  TOURISM AND ENVIROMENT

!  ENERGY CRISIS

! MAN-BEAR CONFLICT

!  CC SCENARIO

SAMSABARI RANGE

LADAKH RANGE

HIMALAYAS: OUR PRIDE

Misunderstanding Himalayan Glaciers

SNOW AND GLACIER REOURCES

Jammu & Kashmir

Water Tower of Asia

Changes in Alpine Cryosphere

Total&Glacier&area&in&1969&(sq.&Km)!

Total&Glacier&area&1992&(Sq.&Km)!

Total&Glacier&area&2001(sq.&Km)!

Total&Glacier&area&2010&(Sq.&Km)!

45.63! 42.33! 39.41! &37.56!

0.00

0.10

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0.40

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0.70

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Sn

ow

%

% snow-06

% snow-07

% snow-08

%Snow-09

Snow Depletion Across Months (2006-2009)

There is a decreasing trend in the snow precipitation as shown by the snow depletion curves.

Trend in Snow Depletion

Changing Hydrology and Land System

Water Demand in Srinagar City

Demographic Changes •  The state of has shown population growth from

2.14 million in 1901 to 12.5 million 2011. •  A growth rate of about 23% compared to the

population figures of 10.1 million in 2001.

Population changes from 1981-2001

Introduction Various beneficial functions of wetlands include life sustaining processes like water storage (domestic, agriculture, industrial usage) protection from storm and floods, ground water recharge, storage for nutrients, erosion control and stabilisation of local climate (temperature, rainfall) and thus helps in maintaining ecological balance. During the recent past wetlands have been recklessly destroyed to create land for ‘development’ and only in recent years their uses and values have begun to be understood and appreciated.

Wetland!Map!–!Jammu!and!Kashmir!

Wetlands & Waterbodies

DAL LAKE CATCHMENT

DAL LAKE ENVIRONS

!

34%

1992

! !

2008 65%

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN???

More runoff in a shorter amount of time

DEVELOPED

Higher overall and peak volume Shorter time to peak flow

UNDEVELOPED

Smaller volume, lower peak Longer time to peak flow

Hydrologic Response: Developed vs. Undeveloped Conditions

Runoff Volume

(Q)

Time

Land System Changes

CLASS NAME! 1972 AREA (HA)! 1992 AREA (HA)! 2008AREA (HA)!FOREST! 485473.31! 464798.36! 391368.55!AGRICULTURE! 337788.45! 301094.00! 269138.93 !PLANTATION! 92240.15! 89443.34! 85876.76 !HORTICULTURE ! 17954.44! 28858.26! 71899.18!WATER! 12795.11! 11024.42! 6827.09!RIVER BED! 9899.81! 9812.22! 7512.82!AQUA_VEGETATION! 3981.44! 7503.56! 11729.20!BUILT-UP! 578.07! 5914.96! 21432.81!

Chemical components

1982 2002 Change

NH4-N(µg/l) 14.9 85.0 70.1

NO3-N(µg/l) 44.7 317.0 272.3

PO4-P(µg/l) 17.5 40.0 22.5

Total P (µg/l) 55.9 228.0 172.1

Cl (µg/l) 11.9 13.5 1.6

Ca (µg/l) 23.7 56.5 32.8

Mg (µg/l) 2.8 22.0 19.2

Change in WQ of river Jhelum (1982–2002)

Yield – temperature plot for 2011-2040 simulation

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e

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yield kg/ha

Average Temperature

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d kg

/hec

tare

s

Years

Yield – temperature plot for 2040-2090 simulation

Simulated yield under future climatic scenario for 2040 showed a decrease of 6.6% from the baseline (4305.55 kg/ha ) .

Simulated yield under future climatic scenario 2090 showed a decrease of 29.1% (3049 kg/ha) from the baseline (4305.55 kg/ha )

CC IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY

The yield simulations were centered at 437 ppm and 630 ppm carbon levels for the year 2025 and 2075

TOU

RIS

M D

EVEL

OPM

ENT

& E

NVI

RO

NM

ENT

Discrepancy Map

89 discrepancies covering an area of 26 Ha

Energy Crisis in the State

" Hydro-power potential: > 25, 000 MW " Out of the identified hydro-electric potential only 2327 MWs (<10%) have been exploited so far " 767 MWs in the state sector from 21 power projects and 1560 MWs from three power projects under central sector.

Energy Scenario

S.&No.& Area& C E R ’ s&(Million/year)&

1& Power&GeneraIon& 41.63&

2& Transmission/DistribuIon& 1.07&

3& Energy&ConservaIon& 2.629&

4& Municipal&solid&waste& 0.125&

5.& Forestry&(LULUCF)& 0.74&

Total& 46.19&

CDM Potential In J&K

POLITICS

Year& Total&Conflicts&1995& 1&1996& 1&1997& 2&1998& 1&1999& 1&2000& 5&2001& 8&2002& 7&2003& 7&2004& 19&2005& 48&2006& 51&2007& 80&2008& 130&2009& 186&

THE OTHER SIDE …… •  INCREASING BEAR ATTACKS

ACROSS THE VALLEY •  ILL EQUIPPED GOVT. MACHINERY

9 Districts& 76 Villages&

THE OTHER SIDE …..

•  POOR UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROBLEM & NO ACTION PLAN

•  Lack of concrete and holistic measures on the ground

•  Lack of awareness among the people •  Thus, BEAR-PHOBIA, Frustration and PANIC

REACTIONS

Bear Attack Cases operated at SKIIMS

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1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Aver

age_

Tem

pera

ture

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) Average Temperature (Dec. & Jan.) (0C)

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Average Temperature (Dec &Jan)

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1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

Total Precipitation Dec-Jan

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1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Rai

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Total Precipitation (Dec. &Jan. )

ANNUAL AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE

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ANNUAL AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

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Tem

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IN CONCLUSION ….. ! L O U D A N D C L E A R T R E N D S O F

ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ! TREMENDOUS TRANSFORMATION OF THE

SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO IN THE STATE

! A N T H R O P O G E N I C A N D N A T U R A L COMPONENT

! CALLOUSNESS AND INACTION. NEED FOR INVOLVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SOCIETY

! NEED FOR SECTOR-WISE ACTION PLANS BASED ON INTEGRATED SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS

40

Thank you

ENVIRONMENT LINKAGES

Understanding the linkages between various components of the earth system