Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world by Peter J. Webster, and Jun Jian Philosophical.

Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world

by Peter J. Webster, and Jun Jian

Philosophical Transactions AVolume 369(1956):4768-4797

December 13, 2011

©2011 by The Royal Society

The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are the sources for a complex of major rivers associated with thriving agricultural societies, colour coded by population density.

Peter J. Webster, and Jun Jian Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:4768-4797


Example of an ensemble forecast from the ECMWF system 3 coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model [22] predicting the evolution of the mid-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-surface

temperature (SST) anomaly (deviation from climatology).



Long-period data for rivers in the developing world are relatively rare.



Five major steps of the CFAB probabilistic forecast scheme.



The three left-hand panels in (a) refer to forecasts of Brahmaputra river discharge in 2007, while the two right-hand panels in (b) refer to Brahmaputra flow in 2008. a(i) Summary of the 10 day

Brahmaputra forecasts for the entire summer plotted against the...



Culling of the IPCC AR4 models based on the precept that models that simulate the present era monsoon precipitation the best are most likely to perform better in estimating future monsoon

precipitation.



Reduction of model bias for models that passed the acceptability criteria.



Simulated discharge (×103 m3 s−1) over the next century of the (a) Ganges, (b) Brahmaputra and (c) Yangtze Rivers at the Hardinge Bridge and Bahadurabad in Bangladesh and Datong in China,

respectively, for a range of SRESs, including the scenario when the C...



Flood probability (left ordinate) and return period (right ordinate) for floods of duration (a) more than 5 days and (b) more than 10 days for the Ganges (dashed line) and Brahmaputra (solid).



Population (black curves, left-hand ordinate) for the A2, A1, B1 scenarios and fresh water availability (discharge per population; red curves, right-hand ordinate) for the twenty-first

century for the (a) Ganges, (b) Yangtze and (c) Brahmaputra River basins.



Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world by Peter J. Webster, and Jun Jian Philosophical.

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