Environics Research Federal Vote Intention September 2015

National Survey Results: Federal Vote Intention – NDP leads narrowly September 17, 2015

2 Federal Vote Intention – September 2015

Environics conducted a live interview telephone survey of 1,001 adult Canadians, 18 years of age and over. The survey was conducted September 10 to 15, 2015. Both landlines and cell phones were surveyed.

The data was weighted by gender, age and region to match the Canadian census population parameters.

Among the 1,001 respondents, 725 people (72%) were decided eligible voters, 13% will not vote and 15% are undecided or refused to say. The margin of error for a random sample-based survey of 725 is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points (at the 95% confidence level).

Methodology


Highlights

Across Canada, the NDP (34%) currently has a small five point lead over the second place Liberals (29%). This is within the margin of error. The Conservatives are in third place with the support of 26% of Canadians. Another eight percent support the Green party and four percent support the Bloc Québécois (15% in Quebec).

Liberals are far more likely to have the NDP as their second choice than the Conservatives (46% vs. 20%). Similarly, 44% of NDP voters have the Liberals as second choice and just 8% have the Conservatives as second choice. To the extent Conservative voters have a second choice at all, 28% would vote Liberal compared to 14% who would vote NDP.


Regional highlights

The NDP has an overwhelming lead in Quebec with 52% support compared to 16% for the Liberals and 15% for the Bloc Quebecois. Conservative support is very weak at just 11%

The Liberals (36%) have a modest lead over the Conservatives (30%) in Ontario with the NDP running third (24%).

Other regional sub-samples are small and yield only directional patterns. The NDP and Liberals are competitive in B.C. and Atlantic Canada. The NDP appears to be strong in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, while the Conservatives maintain their traditional dominance of Alberta.


Demographic highlights

There is a very stark age gap in party preference. The older people are the more likely they are to vote Conservative; The younger people are the more likely they are to vote NDP. Conservative support is concentrated among those over the age of 60. Liberal support does not vary by age.

The gender gap is also very significant. Liberal support is now 10 points higher among women than it is among men, while Conservative support and to a lesser extent NDP support skews more male. The NDP’s strong appeal among men is a recent phenomenon.

Education is another key determinant of vote intention. NDP support is very strong among university graduates and drops off among those with lower levels of education. The Conservatives are weakest among university graduates.


26%

34% 29%

4% 8%

Conservative Party New Democratic Party

Liberal Party Bloc Québécois Green Party

Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725)

Vote intention – Decided voters

The NDP leads the Liberals by five points. Conservatives are running third.


Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) *NB: small sample size

Second choice – By initial party support

8%

20%

8%

4%

46%

14%

34%

29%

44%

28%

32%

15%

7%

1%

1%

4%

15%

8%

5%

4%

26%

25%

53%

22%

48%

NDP Voters

Liberal voters

Conservative Voters

Green voters*

BQ voters*

Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green No 2nd Choice

Liberal voters tend to have NDP as their 2nd choice and vice-versa. Conservative voters are most likely to have no 2nd choice at all


26%

20%

11%

30%

27%

53%

22%

34%

32%

52%

24%

43%

23%

34%

29%

41%

16%

36%

19%

19%

34%

4%

15%

8%

7%

5%

9%

11%

5%

9%

Total

Atlantic*

QC

ON

Man/Sask*

Alberta*

BC*

Conservative NDP Liberal Bloc Green

Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725) - *NB: small sample size

Vote intention – By region

NDP leads in Quebec; Conservatives lead in Alberta; Liberals are slightly ahead in Ontario



Vote intention – By gender

26%

30%

21%

34%

36%

32%

29%

24%

34%

4%

3%

4%

8%

7%

9%

Total

Men

Women


Liberal support skews heavily female. Conservatives and to a lesser extent the NDP do better among men



Vote intention – By age

26%

16%

20%

28%

37%

34%

42%

37%

33%

25%

29%

30%

29%

27%

29%

4%

0%

5%

5%

3%

8%

12%

9%

5%

6%

Total

18-29

30-44

45-59

60+


The “age gap” is stark. NDP support skews young; Conservative support skews old.


Q. If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? Subsample: Decided eligible voters (n=725))

Vote intention – By education level

26%

28%

27%

30%

22%

34%

20%

25%

32%

42%

29%

37%

33%

24%

29%

4%

0%

5%

5%

2%

8%

13%

10%

8%

5%

Total

Less than high school

High school

College/Some Univ

University degree


Education has become a key predictor of vote intention: The more educated people are, the more likely to vote NDP



Vote intention – By household income level

26%

21%

19%

23%

19%

33%

34%

32%

37%

38%

38%

32%

29%

29%

33%

22%

31%

29%

4%

4%

2%

5%

7%

1%

8%

13%

8%

11%

5%

4%

Total

<$30K

$30K - <$50K

$50K - <$80K

$80K - <$100K

$100K+


Conservative support is stronger among those with high incomes. NDP and Liberal support is quite flat across income bands

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Derek Leebosh Vice President, Public Affairs

Environics Research Group Ltd. [email protected]

416-969-2817

www.environics.ca

Environics Research Federal Vote Intention September 2015

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