ENTRAL UNIFIED SHOOL DISTRIT DEMOGRAPHI …€¦ · SCHOOL FACILITY UTILIZATION ... The district-wide and school-specific enrollment projections are meant to serve as a planning tool

SchoolWorks, Inc.

8331 Sierra College Blvd. #221

Roseville, CA 95661

Phone: 916-733-0402

www.SchoolWorksGIS.com

CENTRAL UNIFIED

SCHOOL DISTRICT

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2017/18

4605 N. Polk Ave.

Fresno, CA 93722

559-274-4700

DRAFT —December 2017

Mr. Mark G. Sutton,

Superintendent

December 2017 Page i

Central Unified School District Demographic Study DRAFT 2017/18

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................1 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................2 CLASSROOM COUNTS AND CAPACITY .............................................................................................2 HISTORIC BIRTH RATES ...................................................................................................................7 NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS .....................................................................................................13 HISTORIC ENROLLMENT AND TRENDS .............................................................................................13 SCHOOL PROJECTIONS....................................................................................................................14 STUDENT RESIDENCY AND ENROLLMENT COMPARISON ..................................................................55 DISTRICT PROJECTIONS ..................................................................................................................56 SCHOOL FACILITY UTILIZATION .......................................................................................................60

December 2017 Page ii


CHARTS Page 10 YEAR ENROLLMENT HISTORY AND 6 YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS .......................................3 2017/2018 1 YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTION BY SCHOOL ..............................................................4 KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS BASED ON BIRTHS ............................................................................7 KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT TO BIRTH RATIO ..............................................................................8 RETENTION RATES SINCE KINDERGARTEN .......................................................................................9 NEW DEVELOPMENT CONSTRUCTION .............................................................................................12 HISTORIC ENROLLMENT AND COHORTS ..........................................................................................13 LOADING STANDARDS ....................................................................................................................14 CAPACITY & PROJECTED ENROLLMENT BIOLA-PERSHING ...............................................................................................................16 HARVEST ...........................................................................................................................18 HERNDON-BARSTOW .........................................................................................................20 HOUGHTON-KEARNEY .......................................................................................................22 LIDDELL .............................................................................................................................24 MADISON ..........................................................................................................................26

MCKINLEY .........................................................................................................................28 POLK .................................................................................................................................30 RIVER BLUFF ......................................................................................................................32 ROOSEVELT .......................................................................................................................34 SAROYAN ..........................................................................................................................36 STEINBECK .........................................................................................................................38 TEAGUE .............................................................................................................................40 TILLEY ...............................................................................................................................42 EL CAPITAN .......................................................................................................................44 GLACIER POINT ..................................................................................................................46 RIO VISTA ..........................................................................................................................48 CENTRAL HIGH ...................................................................................................................50 PERSHING CONT. ...............................................................................................................51 CLASS ................................................................................................................................52 PATHWAY COMMUNITY DAY SCHOOL ................................................................................53 STUDENT ATTENDANCE MATRIX .....................................................................................................54 STUDENT RESIDENCY AND ENROLLMENT COMPARISON ..................................................................55

December 2017 Page iii


CHARTS CONTINUED Page 10 YEAR ENROLLMENT HISTORY & 6 YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTION .............................................56 ONE YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY ...........................................................................57 ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY BY GRADE ...........................................................................58 ENROLLMENT PROJECTION SUMMARY BY SCHOOL .........................................................................59 SCHOOL FACILITY UTILIZATION .......................................................................................................60

December 2017 Page iv


MAPS Page DISTRICT MAP WITH STUDENT RESIDENTIAL LOCATION ...................................................................5 ELEMENTARY BOUNDARIES AND SCHOOL LOCATIONS .....................................................................6 NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS .....................................................................................................10 SCHOOL BOUNDARY MAP BIOLA-PERSHING ...............................................................................................................15 HARVEST ...........................................................................................................................17 HERNDON-BARSTOW .........................................................................................................19 HOUGHTON-KEARNEY .......................................................................................................21 LIDDELL .............................................................................................................................23 MADISON ..........................................................................................................................25

MCKINLEY .........................................................................................................................27 POLK .................................................................................................................................29 RIVER BLUFF ......................................................................................................................31 ROOSEVELT .......................................................................................................................33 SAROYAN ..........................................................................................................................35 STEINBECK .........................................................................................................................37 TEAGUE .............................................................................................................................39 TILLEY ...............................................................................................................................41 EL CAPITAN .......................................................................................................................43 GLACIER POINT ..................................................................................................................45 RIO VISTA ..........................................................................................................................47 CENTRAL HIGH ...................................................................................................................49 SCHOOL FACILITY UTILIZATION .......................................................................................................61

December 2017 Page 1


Introduction This Demographic Study provides a comprehensive enrollment analysis for the Central Unified School District. The district-wide and school-specific enrollment projections are meant to serve as a planning tool to help with both long and short term planning. Demographic Studies examine the factors that influence school enrollments, namely trends in demographics, birth rates, and housing development. They are also used as a tool to identify certain facility planning requirements such as capacity, utilization of existing facilities, planning for modernization or new construction, and attendance boundary redistricting. This Study provides information based on the 2017/18 District enrollments and programs, City planning policies and residential development. As these factors change and timelines are adjusted, the Demographic Study should be revised to reflect the most current information.

Executive Summary Central Unified School District includes thirteen (13) K-6 elementary schools, one (1) K-8 elementary school, three (3) middle schools, one (1) comprehensive high school, one (1) continuation high school, one (1) Central Learning Adult School Site (CLASS) program, one (1) community day school, and one (1) Non-Public School (NPS) program. This Study has been prepared using the 2017/18 student enrollment data, current District policies and the latest new housing development information available at the time of this Study. The District has experienced steady growth over the past ten (10) years from an enrollment of 14,290 students during the 2009/10 school year to the current enrollment of 15,894 students. Central Unified School District is projected to grow in enrollment by 1.83% (or 291 students) for the 2018/19 school year. The District is projected to grow over the next six (6) years, with a projected enrollment of 17,445 students in the 2023/24 school year. This is a total growth of 1,551 students, which is an increase of 9.76%. The projections are predicated upon information provided by local municipalities on the development of 2,305 housing units over the next six (6) years. If the building rates increase or decrease, then the timeline shown in this Study will need to be modified accordingly. These projected new developments in the District's boundary are expected to generate 98 students next year, or a total of 1,479 students in the next six (6) years (with 1,085 of the 1,479 students being generated between 2021/22 and 2023/24). Based on current District loading standards and classroom space, the District has a total capacity of 20,500 students, and a current enrollment of 15,894. This gives the District a current utilization factor of 77.5%. The projected utilization factor in six (6) years will be 85.1%. This assumes loading standards remain constant and no additional facilities are built or removed. These projections assume the transfers between schools remain consistent. If changes in facilities, schedules, programs or policies are made, then the patterns may be impacted.



Methodology The enrollment projections for each school are generated using a State standard weighted cohort trend analysis. The basic projections are created by studying the individual geographic areas. Once the trends are analyzed for each area, the base projections are modified using the following procedures:

a) Birth rates are used to project future kindergarten enrollment. It is assumed if the births indicate there was an increase of 4% one year, then there will be a corresponding 4% increase in the kindergarten class five (5) years later.

b) New Housing Development rates and yield factors are compared to the historical impact of

development, and if the future projections exceed the historical values, the projections are augmented accordingly.

c) Inter-District student counts are not included in the base geographic trend analysis since

these students reside outside of the District. Therefore, the current number of students-per-school and students-per-grade are added to the base projections.

d) Intra-District students are those who transfer from one school to another. The number of

students transferring into and out of each school are calculated and used to determine the difference between the projections for students living in each attendance area versus those that are projected to attend the school.

e) The projections for special education students and alternative programs are created by

assuming those programs typically serve a percentage of the total District population. Therefore, as the District grows or declines, the enrollment in those programs would increase or decrease accordingly.

f) The number of students living in the boundary are used to generate the cohort factors. The

weighted average of the three (3) years was determined with the current year weighted 50%, the prior year 33.3% and the last year 16.7%. This gives the current trends more value in determining the projections. Those cohorts are then used to determine the students who will be residing in each attendance area for the following years.

Classroom Counts and Capacity The classroom counts are shown for each school and are used to determine the capacity. The classroom counts represent the rooms that can be used for teaching purposes at each school site. The classroom counts may not represent the current classrooms being used, as there may be unused rooms on the school site. In some cases, there may be fewer classrooms counted than current teaching stations if some of the rooms being used were designed for other purposes but are currently being used as classrooms due to overcrowding. The purpose of the classroom count and capacity are to show what the school capacity should be if all teaching spaces are being used in accordance with the educational programs of the District.



10 Year Enrollment History and 6 Year Enrollment Projections

The Central Unified School District has grown over the past ten (10) years from an enrollment of 14,290 in 2008/09 to the current enrollment of 15,894. This chart provides a summary of the last ten (10) years of historic enrollment and projected enrollment for the next six (6) years. The color orange represents the historic and projected enrollment for the elementary school grades TK-3. The color yellow represents the historic and projected enrollment for the elementary school grades 4-6. The color green represents the historic and projected enrollment for the middle school grades 7-8. The color blue represents the historic and projected enrollment for the high school grades 9-12. The color red represents the historic and projected enrollment for the ungraded Special Day Class (SDC) students. The entire District enrollment is shown at the top of each bar.

4378 4514 4636 4663 4890 4932 4971 4936 4990 5084 5245 5429 5408 5422 5403 5390

3341 3478 3470 3447 3482 3613 3639 3762 3709 3735 3695 3664 3773 3897 4087 4226

2359 2333 2321 24132455 2404 2453 2514 2524 2565 2617 2629 2610 2607 2638 2772

4212 4222 4390 43554419 4556 4500 4481 4549 4510 4628 4750 4836 4945 5005

505714290 1454714817 14878

1526115537 15584 15717 15772 15894

1618516472 16627 16871

1713317445

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Stu

den

ts

YEAR

10 Year Enrollment History &6 Year Enrollment Projection

TK-3 4-6 7-8 9-12 SDC



2018/2019 1 Year Enrollment Projection by School

Central Unified School District has a current enrollment of 15,894 students. The projected enrollment for next year shows an increase of 291 students. This one (1) year summary analyzes the net change between the current District enrollment by school and by grade, and the projected enrollment for 2018/19. The cohort change factor indicates the change in the number of students for each grade compared to the number of students in the prior grade the previous year. These projections assume the transfers between schools remain consistent. If changes in facilities, schedules, programs or policies are made, then the patterns may be impacted. The students living in the boundary generate the cohort factors which are calculated for the past three (3) years and the weighted average is determined. Those cohorts are then used to determine the students who will be residing in each attendance area for the following years. Next the attendance factor is used to determine the net enrollment for each grade. The attendance factor is determined by analyzing the current year of students to see how many Inter- and Intra-district transfers there are.

School T K K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Biola-Pershing 14 29 36 40 22 38 28 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 235

Harvest 31 120 87 109 92 95 97 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 731

Herndon-Barstow 20 92 95 100 102 91 96 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 697

Houghton-Kearney 4 26 24 20 26 22 28 25 31 26 0 0 0 0 232

Liddell 27 115 96 110 103 89 96 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 720

Madison 12 103 111 80 83 111 94 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 713

McKinley 24 116 138 88 126 97 101 129 0 0 0 0 0 0 819

Polk 30 115 104 126 106 131 97 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 836

River Bluff 20 108 122 106 105 118 121 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 835

Roosevelt 18 65 73 59 57 66 85 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 483

Saroyan 24 102 103 117 100 98 93 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 745

Steinbeck 30 108 99 121 101 105 101 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 782

Teague 21 89 82 92 96 94 118 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 702

Tilley 17 83 66 80 74 38 55 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 454

El Capitan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 379 359 0 0 0 0 738

Glacier Point 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 480 470 0 0 0 0 950

Rio Vista 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 419 438 0 0 0 0 857

Central High 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,217 1,132 1,036 892 4,277

Pershing Cont 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 46 68 121

CLASS 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 4 5 13 27 66 104 224

Pathway Community Day School 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 5 2 8 4 5 29

NPS 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 5

Totals 292 1,271 1,238 1,250 1,194 1,193 1,214 1,288 1,314 1,303 1,234 1,173 1,152 1,069 16,185

Current CBEDS 277 1,216 1,236 1,162 1,193 1,195 1,243 1,297 1,294 1,271 1,201 1,185 1,089 1,035 15,894

Net Change 15 55 2 88 1 -2 -29 -9 20 32 33 -12 63 34 291

Cohort Change 22 14 32 0 19 45 17 9 -37 -28 -33 -20

YEAR 18/19, 1 Year Proj.

Central Unified School DistrictEnrollment Projections



District Map with Student Residential Locations

This map shows the District boundary along with the location of each student based on their residential address. This geographic data is the foundation for our demographic analysis. Any red dots outside the District boundary will represent students attending one of the District schools or programs but have a residence outside the District. This map also identifies different areas of student population density.

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Elementary Boundaries and School Locations

Id School Grades Id School Grades 1 Biola-Pershing Elementary TK-6 14 Tilley Elementary TK-6 2 Harvest Elementary TK-6 15 El Capitan Middle 7-8 3 Herndon-Barstow Elementary TK-6 16 Glacier Point Middle 7-8 4 Houghton-Kearney Elementary TK-8 17 Rio Vista Middle 7-8 5 Liddell Elementary TK-6 18 Central High – East Campus 9-12 6 Madison Elementary TK-6 19 Central High – West Campus 9-12 7 McKinley Elementary TK-6 20 New High School Site 8 Polk Elementary TK-6 21 Central Learning Adult Ed (CLASS) 9 River Bluff Elementary TK-6 22 Pershing Cont./Pathway Community Day 10 Roosevelt Elementary TK-6 23 Duplication Center 11 Saroyan Elementary TK-6 24 West Arts Center (WAC) 9-12 12 Steinbeck Elementary TK-6 25 Sierra-Constance Site 13 Teague Elementary TK-6 26 District Athletic Facilities

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Historic Birth Rates The following section is an analysis of the number of births in the Central Unified School District. The number of births are compiled by zip code regions and provided by the Department of Health. The zip code areas do not exactly match the District boundaries and therefore the zip code 93722, which is in the District, was used for this analysis.

The above figure illustrates the correlation between births in the District area and the number of kindergarten students attending Central Unified schools five (5) years later. The number of births between 2001 and 2012 has averaged about 1,315 per year. The recent birth rates over the past four (4) years (2013 to 2016), which will generate the kindergarten classes for the next four (4) years (2018 to 2021), have been between 1,357 and 1,492. We have assumed that the current kindergarten capture rate of 89.35% will be maintained in the future. The kindergarten projections shown here do not account for the impact of any additional housing units.

*Kindergarten Totals may include some Trans i tional Kindergarten s tudents for some of the past years to more accurately

correlate a 12-month period of bi rths to a 12-month period of enrol lment.

10031108 1069

1138 1170 1225 12821221 1239

11351246 1216

1299 13331212 1214

11531193

1266 12761333

1420 1403

1291

13861324

1374 1361

14541492

1357 1359

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School Year (Births are 5 years earlier)

Kindergarten Projections based on Births

K* students Births

Historic K* Enrollment compared to Births K Projections



Historic Kindergarten Capture Rates

This figure shows the kindergarten capture rates for the past 12 years. Since the birth data is derived from zip code areas, which do not exactly match with the District boundaries, the capture rate also accounts for differences in the coverage areas. Low capture rates are common when a district serves only a portion of a large zip code area. A large capture rate is possible when families move into the area after the children were born, but before they arrived for kindergarten. Overall, the District has had a stable capture rate with a 12 year average of 89.05%.

86.99%

92.88%

84.44%89.18% 87.77% 86.27%

91.38%94.58%

89.42%85.73%

90.68% 89.35%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

20

06

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School Year (Births are 5 years earlier)

Kindergarten Enrollment to Birth Ratio



Retention Rates Since Kindergarten

This chart compares the original kindergarten class size to the current enrollment for each grade. For example, the current 6th grade class has 1,297 students and six (6) years ago the kindergarten class had 1,225 students. Overall the class sizes have increased since kindergarten.

1216 1236 1162 1193 1195 1243 1297 1294 1271 1201 1185 1089 1035

12161246

1135 1152 11411177

1225

11701138

10691108

1003978

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0

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400

600

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CURRENT GRADE

Cohort Change Since Kindergarten

17/18 Enrollment Original K Class



New Housing Developments

To determine the impact of the new housing development, each new housing unit is multiplied by the student yield rate. Currently the District student yield rate is 0.642 students per housing unit. This breaks down as follows: Grade District State K-6 0.351 0.40 7-8 0.101 0.10 9-12 0.190 0.20 Total 0.642 0.70 The yield rate used for new construction eligibility determination in the State building program is 0.70 students per home for K-12 districts. The yield rate in the Central Unified School District is lower than the State average.

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191919191919191919 474747474747474747

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383838383838383838575757575757575757

484848484848484848

444444444444444444363636363636363636

515151515151515151

565656565656565656

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535353535353535353

282828282828282828

303030303030303030

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The close up view of the District shows the location of the projected new development areas. The projections used in this report are based on the following number of units projected from these developments:

Assuming that 2,305 of the 10,090 planned units are completed over a six (6) year period, there would be an average of 384 new housing units per year.

Remaining 6 Year Remaining 6 Year

ID Name Units Projection ID Name Units Projection

1 5284-KB Homes 115 115 30 5631 15 15

2 5350 773 0 31 5632 88 88

3 5363 109 109 32 5633 473 120

4 5443 283 20 33 5642 98 0

5 5444 61 10 34 5652-RJ Hill 173 130

6 5453 7 7 35 5674 207 20

7 5456 214 120 36 5680 185 20

8 5463 322 50 37 5695 88 0

9 5479 122 40 38 5710 DR Horton 25 25

10 5481 74 74 39 5725 122 0

11 5493-Centex 244 70 40 5731 6 0

12 5494 Summer Grove 163 163 41 5754 78 0

13 5514 71 0 42 5756 87 10

14 5537 40 40 43 5766 18 0

15 5538 93 30 44 5768 311 0

16 5554 43 43 45 5782 10 0

17 5555 N DANTE AVE 80 80 46 5864 125 40

18 5558 82 0 47 5881 50 0

19 5560 88 20 48 5891 656 220

20 5574 91 30 49 6029 23 23

21 5586 73 73 50 6036 Lennar 10 10

22 5587 305 30 51 6054 69 69

23 5591 49 49 52 6066 78 78

24 5595 Tapestry 50 50 53 6090 La Ventana 18 18

25 5598 80 80 54 6785 W BARSTOW AVE 180 0

26 5599 15 15 55 Apartments 400 0

27 5604 106 10 56 Westlake Dev Proj North 650 0

28 5608 53 0 57 Westlake Dev Proj South 1,950 0

29 5622 91 91 Totals 10,090 2,305



Based on these estimated construction rates, the development will generate 98 students next year and a total of 1,479 students in the next six (6) years.

18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

School Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Totals

Biola-Pershing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Harvest 20 50 60 100 120 160 510

Herndon-Barstow 28 0 30 30 50 39 177

Houghton-Kearney 0 0 0 53 55 85 193

Liddell 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Madison 0 10 20 30 65 95 220

McKinley 0 0 0 20 30 30 80

Polk 40 51 61 66 30 30 278

River Bluff 25 25 0 0 0 0 50

Roosevelt 0 0 57 79 95 117 348

Saroyan 0 0 63 63 23 0 149

Steinbeck 25 0 0 18 50 50 143

Teague 15 0 0 10 18 10 53

Tilley 0 17 17 20 20 30 104

Elementary Totals 153 153 308 489 556 646 2,305

El Capitan 40 78 98 136 145 185 682

Glacier Point 60 50 117 207 283 337 1,054

Houghton-Kearney (7-8) 0 0 0 53 55 85 193

Rio Vista 53 25 93 93 73 39 376

Middle Totals 153 153 308 489 556 646 2,305

Central High 153 153 308 489 556 646 2,305

High Totals 153 153 308 489 556 646 2,305

Central Unified School DistrictNew Development Construction

Housing Units per Year



Historic Enrollment and Trends

This chart shows the enrollment by grade level over the past four (4) years. The cohort values were calculated for each grade and each year, along with the weighted average for each grade. A positive cohort value indicates that grade is expected to have more students than the previous grade last year. A negative value would mean that the grade has fewer students compared to the previous grade last year. In general, a positive cohort is representative of growth and a negative cohort indicates a decline in enrollment. There are some exceptions. First grade usually has a positive cohort, as there are some students that do not attend kindergarten at public schools but arrive in first grade. Another important item to notice is the current breakdown by grade level of the student population. Comparing the number of students in the lower grades to the upper grades can indicate potential increases or decreases in future enrollments. Also, if there is a large class or a small class, it will slowly cause a ripple in the enrollments as it advances a grade each year. Finally, the annual change at the bottom of this chart indicates the net impact of the changes in enrollment over the past few years.

Weighted

Grade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average

T K 262 270 256 277

K 1,152 1,135 1,246 1,216 -17 111 -30 19.2

1 1,124 1,177 1,146 1,236 25 11 -10 2.8

2 1,199 1,151 1,172 1,162 27 -5 16 10.8

3 1,234 1,203 1,170 1,193 4 19 21 17.5

4 1,212 1,258 1,205 1,195 24 2 25 17.2

5 1,234 1,247 1,250 1,243 35 -8 38 22.2

6 1,193 1,257 1,254 1,297 23 7 47 29.7

7 1,261 1,245 1,272 1,294 52 15 40 33.7

8 1,192 1,269 1,252 1,271 8 7 -1 3.2

9 1,161 1,146 1,213 1,201 -46 -56 -51 -51.8

10 1,170 1,118 1,119 1,185 -43 -27 -28 -30.2

11 1,098 1,134 1,073 1,089 -36 -45 -30 -36.0

12 1,071 1,083 1,144 1,035 -15 10 -38 -18.2

SDC 21 24 0 0 3 -24 0 -7.5

Totals 15,584 15,717 15,772 15,894 3.1 1.2 -0.1 0.9

Annual Change: 133 55 122

CBEDS Enrollment Historic Cohorts

Central Unified School District

Historic Enrollment and Cohorts



School Projections After the boundary map for each school, there is a chart that shows the projected enrollment for the next six (6) years. These charts indicate the actual enrollment at each school over the past four (4) years along with the projected enrollment for the next six (6) years. In addition, the number of students living in the boundary are shown for the same time period. If there are more students attending than live in the area, then there is a net inflow. If more students live in the boundary than attend the school, then there is a net outflow. The current capacity is shown on these charts to identify if there will be classroom space available for the students. If space is not available, then the attendance patterns will likely need to change if the additional facilities are not provided. The capacity for each school was determined by using the following loading standards for each classroom identified: Grade Class Size Loading Standard TK-K 26 24.7 1-3 26 24.7 4-6 35 33.3 7-8 38 34.2 9-12 38 34.2 These loading standards are based on the current loading factors used this year and may change based on the level of funding for schools in the future. Backup data is provided below each projection chart that shows the calculations of the cohort factors used to determine the enrollment projections for each school. The number of students living in the boundary are shown, which are then used to generate the cohort factors. The weighted average of the three (3) years was determined with the current year weighted 50%, the prior year 33.3% and the last year 16.7%. This gives the current trends more value in determining the projections. Those cohorts are then used to determine the students who will be residing in each attendance area for the following years. The kindergarten enrollment is projected using the birth data instead of the cohort factor shown here. The Attendance Factors were determined by analyzing the current year of students to see how many Inter- and Intra-District transfers there are. Once the baseline projections are calculated for the residents in the attendance area, the Intra-District and Inter-District factors are applied to determine the projected enrollment for each school. The last three (3) columns in the chart, Current Enrollment, 18/19 Projection, and Net Change, show the current enrollment, next year’s projection and net change in enrollment for next year. These are compared by grade to show the details needed for staffing and classroom needs.



RooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRooseveltRoosevelt

Herndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-BarstowHerndon-Barstow

Biola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-Pershing

Houghton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-KearneyHoughton-Kearney

Biola-Pershing

Student Legend

Incoming from other Districts (3)

Incoming from other schools (5)

Living in area and attending this school (227)

Outgoing to other schools (30)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Inter-District

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

Liddell

River Bluff

Saroyan

Teague

3

0

3

1

0

0

0

1

0

7

3

2

1

4

11

2

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Biola-Pershing

Transfer Students



District Loading Standards

Traditional School

All Portables Loaded

Classroom Count = 10

Grades Served = K - 6

Classroom Needs TimelineProjected

Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing

Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units

17/18 235 12 0 273 0 0 -1 38

18/19 235 0 0 273 0 0 -1 38 0

19/20 238 3 0 273 0 0 -1 35 0

20/21 239 1 0 273 0 0 -1 34 0

21/22 231 -8 0 273 0 0 -1 42 0

22/23 229 -2 0 273 0 0 -1 44 0

23/24 221 -8 0 273 0 0 -2 52 0

* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)


213 217 223 235 235 238 239

231 229 221

Capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Biola-Pershing

Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 273

Weighted Attendance Factors Current 18/19 Net

YEAR: 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change

Grade

T K 5 6 7 15 14 14 0

K 35 33 37 33 -2 4 -4 0 -9.1% 0.0% 30 29 -1

1 34 42 33 41 7 0 4 3 0.0% 0.0% 41 36 -5

2 32 31 38 33 -3 -4 0 -2 0.0% 3.0% 34 40 6

3 37 31 32 41 -1 1 3 2 -34.1% 2.4% 28 22 -6

4 23 34 32 29 -3 1 -3 -2 -6.9% 3.4% 28 38 10

5 38 24 34 31 1 0 -1 0 -3.2% 0.0% 30 28 -2

6 25 37 27 34 -1 3 0 1 -11.8% 0.0% 30 28 -2

Totals 229 238 240 257 -0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.3 -9.3% 1.3% 235 235 0

Historic CohortsStudents in boundary

Biola-Pershing



PolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolk



SteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeckSteinbeck

TeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeagueTeague

HarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvestHarvest


McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinley

SaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyanSaroyan

River BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver BluffRiver Bluff

Harvest

Student Legend





0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32

Inter-District

Biola-Pershing

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

Liddell

Madison

McKinley

Polk

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Saroyan

Steinbeck

Teague

Tilley

9

7

8

1

2

4

10

7

3

2

3

8

29

1

0

0

5

4

4

0

2

2

0

2

6

10

2

2

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Harvest

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 724 10 0 918 0 0 -7 194

18/19 731 7 0 918 0 0 -6 187 20

19/20 765 34 0 918 0 0 -6 153 50

20/21 785 20 0 918 0 0 -5 133 60

21/22 803 18 0 918 0 0 -4 115 100

22/23 820 17 0 918 0 0 -4 98 120

23/24 829 9 0 918 0 0 -4 89 160



654 680

714 724 731 765 785 803 820 829

Capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Harvest




Grade

T K 15 23 18 23 28 31 3

K 83 80 106 82 -3 26 -24 1 34.1% 0.0% 110 120 10

1 77 86 82 106 3 2 0 1 3.8% 0.0% 110 87 -23

2 69 79 87 92 2 1 10 6 -3.3% 0.0% 89 109 20

3 105 78 85 88 9 6 1 4 -5.7% 1.1% 84 92 8

4 92 105 81 88 0 3 3 3 1.1% 3.4% 92 95 3

5 87 90 103 85 -2 -2 4 1 5.9% 3.5% 93 97 4

6 85 91 93 106 4 3 3 3 9.4% 1.9% 118 100 -18

Totals 613 632 655 670 1.9 5.6 -0.4 2.7 6.5% 1.4% 724 731 7


Harvest





LiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddellLiddell







Herndon-Barstow

Student Legend





0 10 20 30 40 50

Inter-District

Biola-Pershing

Harvest

Houghton-Kearney

Liddell

Madison

McKinley

Polk

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Saroyan

Steinbeck

Teague

Tilley

7

3

5

0

2

0

2

2

4

3

4

0

4

0

0

3

8

1

46

1

4

4

28

0

14

1

1

1

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Herndon-Barstow

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 660 34 0 860 0 0 -7 200

18/19 697 37 0 860 0 0 -5 163 28

19/20 715 18 0 860 0 0 -5 145 0

20/21 738 23 0 860 0 0 -4 122 30

21/22 763 25 0 860 0 0 -4 97 30

22/23 780 17 0 860 0 0 -3 80 50

23/24 778 -2 0 860 0 0 -4 82 39



578 624 626

660 697 715 738

763 780 778

Capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Herndon-Barstow




Grade

T K 22 28 24 20 18 20 2

K 77 87 101 97 10 14 -4 1 -13.4% 0.0% 84 92 8

1 78 87 92 110 10 5 9 8 -10.9% 1.8% 100 95 -5

2 98 83 85 102 5 -2 10 5 -15.7% 1.0% 87 100 13

3 86 97 91 93 -1 8 8 7 -8.6% 1.1% 86 102 16

4 87 85 102 99 -1 5 8 6 -8.1% 0.0% 91 91 0

5 91 87 90 105 0 5 3 3 -7.6% 1.9% 99 96 -3

6 60 92 90 110 1 3 20 11 -14.5% 0.9% 95 101 6

Totals 599 646 675 736 3.4 5.4 7.7 5.9 -11.3% 1.0% 660 697 37


Herndon-Barstow



MadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadison






PolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilley

Houghton-Kearney

Student Legend





0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Inter-District

Biola-Pershing

El Capitan

Glacier Point

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Liddell

Madison

McKinley

Polk

Rio Vista

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Teague

Tilley

13

2

6

3

4

1

0

6

3

4

0

1

0

1

3

0

1

2

4

1

0

1

4

0

3

5

0

3

0

0

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Houghton-Kearney

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 233 9 0 351 0 0 -4 118

18/19 232 -1 0 351 0 0 -4 119 0

19/20 236 4 0 351 0 0 -4 115 0

20/21 233 -3 0 351 0 0 -4 118 0

21/22 248 15 0 351 0 0 -4 103 53

22/23 259 11 0 351 0 0 -3 92 55

23/24 291 32 0 351 0 0 -2 60 85



228 220 224 233 232 236 233 248

259

291

Capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Houghton-Kearney




Grade

T K 5 8 5 4 4 4 0

K 20 20 17 20 0 -3 3 0 15.0% 5.0% 24 26 2

1 29 16 20 18 -4 0 1 0 11.1% 11.1% 22 24 2

2 22 28 14 21 -1 -2 1 0 0.0% 9.5% 23 20 -3

3 24 19 28 18 -3 0 4 2 16.7% 0.0% 21 26 5

4 20 26 19 25 2 0 -3 -1 12.0% 8.0% 30 22 -8

5 28 20 24 23 0 -2 4 1 8.7% 0.0% 25 28 3

6 24 27 20 25 -1 0 1 0 -4.0% 12.0% 27 25 -2

7 23 26 29 25 2 2 5 4 4.0% 4.0% 27 31 4

8 22 21 29 31 -2 3 2 2 -9.7% 6.5% 30 26 -4

Totals 217 211 205 210 -0.8 -0.2 2.0 0.9 6.0% 6.2% 233 232 -1


Houghton-Kearney






Liddell

Student Legend





0 10 20 30 40 50

Inter-District

Biola-Pershing

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

McKinley

Polk

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Saroyan

Steinbeck

Teague

Tilley

25

1

4

46

1

3

0

26

3

10

8

7

4

0

0

2

2

0

0

2

41

0

3

0

0

0

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Liddell

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 717 42 0 876 0 0 -6 159

18/19 720 3 0 876 0 0 -5 156 0

19/20 728 8 0 876 0 0 -5 148 0

20/21 715 -13 0 876 0 0 -6 161 0

21/22 714 -1 0 876 0 0 -6 162 0

22/23 720 6 0 876 0 0 -6 156 0

23/24 719 -1 0 876 0 0 -5 157 0



673

702 675

717 720 728 715 714 720 719

Capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Liddell




Grade

T K 29 20 20 19 25 27 2

K 83 87 90 86 4 3 -4 1 19.8% 4.7% 107 115 8

1 102 86 82 91 3 -5 1 0 9.9% 1.1% 101 96 -5

2 90 105 87 85 3 1 3 2 14.1% 5.9% 102 110 8

3 94 87 96 87 -3 -9 0 -4 17.2% 8.0% 109 103 -6

4 96 88 81 92 -6 -6 -4 -5 6.5% 1.1% 99 89 -10

5 109 95 91 84 -1 3 3 2 1.2% 1.2% 86 96 10

6 109 106 96 85 -3 1 -6 -3 -3.5% 7.1% 88 84 -4

Totals 712 674 643 629 -0.4 -1.7 -1.0 -1.0 9.3% 4.1% 717 720 3


Liddell







TilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyMadison

Student Legend





0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280

Inter-District

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

McKinley

Polk

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Steinbeck

Teague

Tilley

24

0

1

4

23

9

0

4

4

6

244

0

4

0

6

9

4

3

1

2

0

7

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Madison

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 695 -4 0 1010 0 0 -11 315

18/19 713 18 0 1010 0 0 -10 297 0

19/20 723 10 0 1010 0 0 -10 287 10

20/21 735 12 0 1010 0 0 -10 275 20

21/22 743 8 0 1010 0 0 -9 267 30

22/23 764 21 0 1010 0 0 -8 246 65

23/24 804 40 0 1010 0 0 -8 206 95



793

652 699 695 713 723 735 743 764

804

Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Madison




Grade

T K 12 11 13 10 13 12 -1

K 67 49 46 70 -18 -3 24 1 55.7% 2.9% 111 103 -8

1 47 64 53 49 -3 4 3 2 79.6% 0.0% 88 111 23

2 58 57 61 56 10 -3 3 2 44.6% 7.1% 85 80 -5

3 44 53 58 59 -5 1 -2 -2 37.3% 11.9% 88 83 -5

4 55 49 61 57 5 8 -1 3 77.2% 8.8% 106 111 5

5 49 59 51 60 4 2 -1 1 58.3% 1.7% 96 94 -2

6 61 52 62 51 3 3 0 2 102.0% 9.8% 108 119 11

Totals 393 394 405 412 -0.6 1.7 3.7 1.3 65.0% 6.0% 695 713 18


Madison






TilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilleyTilley

McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadisonMadison

McKinley

Student Legend





0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32

Inter-District

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

Liddell

Madison

Polk

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Saroyan

Steinbeck

Teague

Tilley

13

2

4

0

0

9

6

0

4

0

3

2

29

0

10

2

3

3

23

26

2

4

11

10

1

18

Incoming Outgoing

Students

McKinley

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 830 -7 0 968 0 0 -5 138

18/19 819 -11 0 968 0 0 -5 149 0

19/20 826 7 0 968 0 0 -5 142 0

20/21 839 13 0 968 0 0 -4 129 0

21/22 863 24 0 968 0 0 -4 105 20

22/23 868 5 0 968 0 0 -3 100 30

23/24 909 41 0 968 0 0 -2 59 30



932

810 837 830 819 826 839 863 868 909

Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment McKinley




Grade

T K 28 25 36 27 23 24 1

K 117 131 107 134 14 -24 27 2 -16.4% 1.5% 114 116 2

1 111 105 140 100 -12 9 -7 -1 5.0% 0.0% 105 138 33

2 111 110 113 133 -1 8 -7 -1 -9.8% 1.5% 122 88 -34

3 149 109 111 103 -2 1 -10 -5 -3.9% 1.9% 101 126 25

4 116 140 121 104 -9 12 -7 -1 -5.8% 1.0% 99 97 -2

5 139 103 137 122 -13 -3 1 -3 -1.6% 1.6% 122 101 -21

6 132 139 119 148 0 16 11 11 -5.4% 2.7% 144 129 -15

Totals 903 862 884 871 -3.3 2.7 1.1 0.3 -5.4% 1.5% 830 819 -11


McKinley










Polk

Student Legend





0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28

Inter-District

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

Liddell

Madison

McKinley

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Saroyan

Steinbeck

Teague

Tilley

4

2

4

3

2

4

26

2

17

2

9

11

16

0

7

2

4

0

9

6

0

4

1

1

1

19

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Polk

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 810 -24 0 918 0 0 -3 108

18/19 836 26 0 918 0 0 -2 82 40

19/20 864 28 0 918 0 0 -2 54 51

20/21 894 30 0 918 0 0 -1 24 61

21/22 903 9 0 918 0 0 0 15 66

22/23 912 9 0 918 0 0 -1 6 30

23/24 912 0 0 918 0 0 0 6 30



884

805 834 810 836

864 894 903 912 912 Capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Polk




Grade

T K 20 19 23 27 28 30 2

K 104 99 120 105 -5 21 -15 2 1.9% 1.0% 108 115 7

1 87 106 109 116 2 10 -4 2 -3.4% 0.0% 112 104 -8

2 98 84 110 103 -3 4 -6 -2 9.7% 1.0% 114 126 12

3 91 107 89 114 9 5 4 5 -4.4% 1.8% 111 106 -5

4 111 100 102 86 9 -5 -3 -2 20.9% 0.0% 104 131 27

5 99 112 105 106 1 5 4 4 5.7% 0.0% 112 97 -15

6 100 110 120 106 11 8 1 5 14.2% 0.0% 121 127 6

Totals 710 737 778 763 3.4 6.9 -2.7 2.0 6.4% 0.5% 810 836 26


Polk







River Bluff

Student Legend





0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Inter-District

Biola-Pershing

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

Liddell

Madison

McKinley

Polk

Roosevelt

Saroyan

Steinbeck

Teague

16

4

0

28

0

41

3

2

0

5

32

1

1

0

0

3

4

1

26

0

0

2

0

9

0

0

Incoming Outgoing

Students

River Bluff

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 799 -18 0 1010 0 0 -7 211

18/19 835 36 0 1010 0 0 -7 175 25

19/20 854 19 0 1010 0 0 -6 156 25

20/21 867 13 0 1010 0 0 -5 143 0

21/22 870 3 0 1010 0 0 -5 140 0

22/23 878 8 0 1010 0 0 -4 132 0

23/24 882 4 0 1010 0 0 -5 128 0



918 927 817 799

835 854 867 870 878 882

Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment River Bluff




Grade

T K 21 13 23 19 21 20 -1

K 84 95 90 111 11 -5 21 2 -1.8% 2.7% 112 108 -4

1 73 91 94 96 7 -1 6 4 4.2% 3.1% 103 122 19

2 93 80 96 91 7 5 -3 1 9.9% 0.0% 100 106 6

3 78 107 82 98 14 2 2 4 8.2% 2.0% 108 105 -3

4 73 86 106 92 8 -1 10 6 13.0% 2.2% 106 118 12

5 95 81 89 110 8 3 4 4 21.8% 0.9% 135 121 -14

6 76 92 88 93 -3 7 4 4 17.2% 5.4% 114 135 21

Totals 593 645 668 710 7.4 1.4 6.3 3.6 10.4% 2.3% 799 835 36


River Bluff













Roosevelt

Student Legend





0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Inter-District

CLASS

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

Liddell

Madison

McKinley

Polk

River Bluff

Saroyan

Steinbeck

Teague

Tilley

8

0

2

0

3

0

1

4

4

0

0

4

3

9

0

3

2

3

0

3

4

4

17

5

2

8

4

10

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Roosevelt

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 490 9 0 786 0 0 -11 296

18/19 483 -7 0 786 0 0 -11 303 0

19/20 487 4 0 786 0 0 -11 299 0

20/21 478 -9 0 786 0 0 -10 308 57

21/22 482 4 0 786 0 0 -10 304 79

22/23 509 27 0 786 0 0 -10 277 95

23/24 533 24 0 786 0 0 -9 253 117



522 486 481 490 483 487 478 482

509 533

Capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Roosevelt




Grade

T K 19 18 8 17 18 18 0

K 62 59 75 72 -3 16 -3 1 -8.3% 0.0% 66 65 -1

1 74 68 55 62 6 -4 -13 -3 3.2% 4.8% 67 73 6

2 66 85 67 53 11 -1 -2 1 -7.5% 1.9% 50 59 9

3 76 70 87 77 4 2 10 6 -2.6% 1.3% 76 57 -19

4 79 80 62 88 4 -8 1 -2 -10.2% 1.1% 80 66 -14

5 65 90 77 70 11 -3 8 5 -12.9% 2.9% 63 85 22

6 70 69 84 78 4 -6 1 -1 -10.3% 0.0% 70 60 -10

Totals 511 539 515 517 5.3 -0.6 0.3 1.0 -6.9% 1.7% 490 483 -7


Roosevelt







Saroyan

Student Legend





0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Inter-District

Biola-Pershing

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Liddell

McKinley

Polk

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Steinbeck

Teague

21

11

6

14

3

11

1

9

2

18

8

0

0

3

4

10

0

2

32

0

0

0

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Saroyan

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 745 37 0 910 0 0 -6 165

18/19 745 0 0 910 0 0 -6 165 0

19/20 749 4 0 910 0 0 -5 161 0

20/21 771 22 0 910 0 0 -5 139 63

21/22 790 19 0 910 0 0 -4 120 63

22/23 806 16 0 910 0 0 -4 104 23

23/24 795 -11 0 910 0 0 -5 115 0



715 709 708 745 745 749 771 790 806 795

Capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Saroyan




Grade

T K 16 26 18 25 23 24 1

K 95 81 104 95 -14 23 -9 1 3.2% 1.1% 99 102 3

1 85 93 82 105 -2 1 1 1 2.9% 3.8% 112 103 -9

2 116 88 91 85 3 -2 3 1 11.8% 1.2% 96 117 21

3 98 109 90 98 -7 2 7 3 9.2% 3.1% 110 100 -10

4 114 96 96 88 -2 -13 -2 -6 3.4% 3.4% 94 98 4

5 108 119 94 97 5 -2 1 1 0.0% 4.1% 101 93 -8

6 124 107 111 99 -1 -8 5 0 6.1% 5.1% 110 108 -2

Totals 756 719 686 692 -2.6 0.1 0.9 0.1 5.2% 3.1% 745 745 0


Saroyan



McKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyMcKinleyPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolkPolk




Steinbeck

Student Legend





0 4 8 12 16 20

Inter-District

CLASS

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Liddell

Madison

McKinley

Polk

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Saroyan

Teague

Tilley

14

0

10

1

0

2

10

1

0

8

0

5

4

0

1

8

0

8

4

3

9

1

4

18

14

1

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Steinbeck

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 770 5 0 976 0 0 -7 206

18/19 782 12 0 976 0 0 -6 194 25

19/20 790 8 0 976 0 0 -6 186 0

20/21 792 2 0 976 0 0 -7 184 0

21/22 802 10 0 976 0 0 -7 174 18

22/23 821 19 0 976 0 0 -6 155 50

23/24 818 -3 0 976 0 0 -5 158 50



757 775 765 770 782 790 792 802 821 818

Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Steinbeck




Grade

T K 24 25 21 32 28 30 2

K 95 103 124 108 8 21 -16 2 -6.5% 0.9% 102 108 6

1 94 105 94 120 10 -9 -4 -2 -8.3% 1.7% 112 99 -13

2 113 98 106 101 4 1 7 5 -5.0% 0.0% 96 121 25

3 97 118 101 101 5 3 -5 -1 -4.0% 4.0% 101 101 0

4 118 105 117 103 8 -1 2 2 0.0% 1.0% 104 105 1

5 95 132 104 111 14 -1 -6 -1 -2.7% 0.9% 109 101 -8

6 93 93 114 110 -2 -18 6 -3 2.7% 4.5% 118 117 -1

Totals 729 779 781 786 6.7 -0.6 -2.3 0.3 -3.4% 1.9% 770 782 12


Steinbeck







Teague

Student Legend





0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32

Inter-District

Biola-Pershing

CLASS

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

Liddell

Madison

McKinley

Polk

River Bluff

Roosevelt

Saroyan

Steinbeck

2

2

0

2

1

0

0

0

1

1

0

4

0

14

0

1

1

29

4

1

7

6

2

11

1

3

8

5

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Teague

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 713 -16 0 902 0 0 -7 189

18/19 702 -11 0 902 0 0 -7 200 15

19/20 687 -15 0 902 0 0 -7 215 0

20/21 651 -36 0 902 0 0 -9 251 0

21/22 650 -1 0 902 0 0 -8 252 10

22/23 648 -2 0 902 0 0 -9 254 18

23/24 647 -1 0 902 0 0 -9 255 10



773

710 729 713 702 687 651 650 648 647

Capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Teague




Grade

T K 29 19 19 18 18 21 3

K 96 104 95 86 8 -9 -9 1 -14.0% 0.0% 74 89 15

1 119 100 99 96 4 -5 1 0 -4.2% 0.0% 92 82 -10

2 121 121 98 101 2 -2 2 1 -5.0% 0.0% 96 92 -4

3 120 116 123 91 -5 2 -7 -4 -2.2% 1.1% 90 96 6

4 118 122 120 131 2 4 8 6 -3.8% 0.8% 127 94 -33

5 126 118 117 121 0 -5 1 -1 -9.9% 0.0% 109 118 9

6 125 127 121 121 1 3 4 3 -11.6% 0.0% 107 110 3

Totals 854 827 792 765 1.7 -1.7 0.0 0.9 -7.2% 0.3% 713 702 -11


Teague






Tilley

Student Legend





0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280

Inter-District

Harvest

Herndon-Barstow

Houghton-Kearney

Liddell

Madison

McKinley

Polk

Roosevelt

Steinbeck

10

2

1

0

0

7

18

19

10

1

0

1

0

3

4

244

29

16

9

4

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Tilley

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 442 28 0 454 0 0 0 12

18/19 454 12 0 454 0 0 0 0 0

19/20 477 23 0 454 23 1 1 0 17

20/21 491 14 0 454 37 0 1 0 17

21/22 504 13 0 454 50 1 2 0 20

22/23 524 20 0 454 70 0 2 0 20

23/24 536 12 0 454 82 1 3 0 30



0

428 414 442 454

477 491 504 524 536

Capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Tilley




Grade

T K 17 29 21 19 16 17 1

K 95 85 111 103 -10 26 -8 2 -28.2% 1.0% 75 83 8

1 90 106 91 109 11 6 -2 3 -36.7% 0.0% 69 66 -3

2 91 82 90 85 -8 -16 -6 -10 -23.5% 1.2% 66 80 14

3 109 90 81 89 -1 -1 -1 -1 -15.7% 4.5% 79 74 -5

4 93 112 86 90 3 -4 9 4 -62.2% 1.1% 35 38 3

5 79 99 101 96 6 -11 10 2 -40.6% 2.1% 59 55 -4

6 90 87 91 93 8 -8 -8 -5 -54.8% 1.1% 43 41 -2

Totals 664 690 672 684 1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -37.4% 1.6% 442 454 12


Tilley



Glacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier PointGlacier Point


El CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl Capitan

El Capitan

Student Legend





0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Inter-District

CLASS

Glacier Point

Houghton-Kearney

Pathways CDS

Rio Vista

10

0

10

2

0

2

0

3

35

6

1

20

Incoming Outgoing

Students

El Capitan

Transfer Students




Traditional School



Grades Served = 7 - 8




17/18 712 -3 0 1129 0 0 -12 417

18/19 738 26 0 1129 0 0 -11 391 40

19/20 751 13 0 1129 0 0 -11 378 78

20/21 716 -35 0 1129 0 0 -12 413 98

21/22 719 3 0 1129 0 0 -12 410 136

22/23 774 55 0 1129 0 0 -10 355 145

23/24 789 15 0 1129 0 0 -10 340 185



663 699 715 712 738 751

716 719 774 789

Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment El Capitan




Grade

T K 77 84 93 83 0 0 0

K 383 364 384 412 -19 20 28 6 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 335 381 393 374 -2 29 -10 4 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 358 333 374 377 -2 -7 -16 -11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 393 359 339 365 1 6 -9 -2 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 375 401 370 337 8 11 -2 4 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 366 373 394 384 -2 -7 14 4 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 383 388 392 398 22 19 4 12 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 359 397 377 387 14 -11 -5 -4 -5.9% 1.6% 370 379 9

8 343 368 390 366 9 -7 -11 -6 -7.7% 1.1% 342 359 17

Totals 3372 3448 3506 3483 3.2 5.9 -0.8 0.8 -6.8% 1.3% 712 738 26


El Capitan



Rio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio Vista



El CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl CapitanEl Capitan

Glacier Point

Student Legend





0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Inter-District

CLASS

El Capitan

Houghton-Kearney

Pathways CDS

Rio Vista

7

0

35

4

0

4

0

5

10

3

3

17

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Glacier Point

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 918 25 0 1060 0 0 -4 142

18/19 950 32 0 1060 0 0 -3 110 60

19/20 933 -17 0 1060 0 0 -4 127 50

20/21 937 4 0 1060 0 0 -4 123 117

21/22 935 -2 0 1060 0 0 -4 125 207

22/23 906 -29 0 1060 0 0 -5 154 283

23/24 971 65 0 1060 0 0 -3 89 337



898 929

893 918 950 933 937 935

906 971

Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Glacier Point




Grade

T K 92 91 73 105 0 0 0

K 371 379 437 381 8 58 -56 6 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 398 401 363 425 30 -16 -12 -3 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 401 414 396 380 16 -5 17 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 435 413 428 398 12 14 2 8 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 430 446 412 439 11 -1 11 7 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 411 454 435 418 24 -11 6 3 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 398 417 439 449 6 -15 14 3 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 457 426 436 459 28 19 20 21 1.3% 0.7% 468 480 12

8 410 461 429 447 4 3 11 7 -0.2% 0.9% 450 470 20

Totals 3803 3902 3848 3901 15.4 5.1 1.4 6.9 0.5% 0.8% 918 950 32


Glacier Point



Rio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio VistaRio Vista


Rio Vista

Student Legend





0 4 8 12 16 20

Inter-District

CLASS

El Capitan

Glacier Point

Houghton-Kearney

Pathways CDS

16

0

20

17

5

0

0

1

2

4

0

2

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Rio Vista

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 863 24 0 1368 0 0 -15 505

18/19 857 -6 0 1368 0 0 -15 511 53

19/20 871 14 0 1368 0 0 -15 497 25

20/21 882 11 0 1368 0 0 -14 486 93

21/22 878 -4 0 1368 0 0 -14 490 93

22/23 882 4 0 1368 0 0 -14 486 73

23/24 926 44 0 1368 0 0 -13 442 39



833 818 839 863 857 871 882 878 882 926

Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Rio Vista




Grade

T K 88 87 85 83 0 0 0

K 339 350 385 389 11 35 4 6 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 338 357 350 402 18 0 17 12 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 397 356 359 363 18 2 13 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 356 400 359 376 3 3 17 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 370 355 385 371 -1 -15 12 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 403 382 364 396 12 9 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 369 397 385 387 -6 3 23 12 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 395 372 410 408 3 13 23 16 2.7% 1.2% 424 419 -5

8 382 391 372 406 -4 0 -4 -3 5.4% 2.7% 439 438 -1

Totals 3437 3447 3454 3581 6.0 5.6 12.9 8.3 4.1% 2.0% 863 857 -6


Rio Vista



Central HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral HighCentral High

Central High

Student Legend




0 40 80 120 160 200 240

Inter-District

CLASS

Pathways CDS

Pershing Cont

122

0

0

0

0

201

19

113

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Central High

Transfer Students




Traditional School







17/18 4169 -32 0 4959 0 0 -23 790

18/19 4277 108 0 4959 0 0 -20 682 153

19/20 4388 111 0 4959 0 0 -17 571 153

20/21 4471 83 0 4959 0 0 -14 488 308

21/22 4567 96 0 4959 0 0 -11 392 489

22/23 4618 51 0 4959 0 0 -10 341 556

23/24 4665 47 0 4959 0 0 -9 294 646



4160 4142 4201 4169 4277 4388 4471 4567 4618 4665

Capacity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Central High




Grade

T K 262 270 256 275 0 0 0

K 1113 1113 1223 1202 0 110 -21 18 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 1100 1155 1126 1219 42 13 -4 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 1178 1131 1143 1141 31 -12 15 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 1208 1191 1154 1157 13 23 14 17 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 1195 1228 1186 1172 20 -5 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 1208 1229 1217 1221 34 -11 35 20 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 1174 1229 1236 1259 21 7 42 27 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 1234 1221 1252 1279 47 23 43 37 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 1157 1241 1220 1250 7 -1 -2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 1138 1128 1186 1173 -29 -55 -47 -47 -1.5% 2.5% 1184 1217 33

10 1143 1125 1082 1155 -13 -46 -31 -33 -3.6% 2.7% 1144 1132 -12

11 1063 1123 1044 1055 -20 -81 -27 -44 -10.5% 3.2% 978 1036 58

12 1024 1059 1111 1002 -4 -12 -42 -26 -16.7% 2.8% 863 892 29

Totals 15197 15443 15436 15560 11.5 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 -8.1% 2.8% 4169 4277 108


Central High




Traditional School


Classroom Count = 9





17/18 117 -4 0 225 0 0 -4 108

18/19 121 4 0 225 0 0 -4 104 153

19/20 125 4 0 225 0 0 -4 100 153

20/21 126 1 0 225 0 0 -4 99 308

21/22 130 4 0 225 0 0 -4 95 489

22/23 133 3 0 225 0 0 -4 92 556

23/24 135 2 0 225 0 0 -4 90 646


Classroom Count = 9

125 127 121 117 121 125 126 130 133 135

Capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Pershing Cont




Grade

T K 262 270 256 275 0 0 0

K 1113 1113 1223 1202 0 110 -21 18 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 1100 1155 1126 1219 42 13 -4 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 1178 1131 1143 1141 31 -12 15 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 1208 1191 1154 1157 13 23 14 17 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 1195 1228 1186 1172 20 -5 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 1208 1229 1217 1221 34 -11 35 20 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 1174 1229 1236 1259 21 7 42 27 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 1234 1221 1252 1279 47 23 43 37 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 1157 1241 1220 1250 7 -1 -2 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 1138 1128 1186 1173 -29 -55 -47 -47 0.0% 0.1% 1 1 0

10 1143 1125 1082 1155 -13 -46 -31 -33 0.0% 0.5% 6 6 0

11 1063 1123 1044 1055 -20 -81 -27 -44 0.0% 4.2% 44 46 2

12 1024 1059 1111 1002 -4 -12 -42 -26 0.0% 6.6% 66 68 2

Totals 15197 15443 15436 15560 11.5 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.0% 2.8% 117 121 4


Pershing Cont




Traditional School


Classroom Count = 7





17/18 218 -8 0 239 0 0 -1 21

18/19 224 6 0 239 0 0 -1 15 153

19/20 231 7 0 239 0 0 -1 8 153

20/21 233 2 0 239 0 0 -1 6 308

21/22 240 7 0 239 1 0 0 0 489

22/23 245 5 0 239 6 0 0 0 556

23/24 249 4 0 239 10 0 0 0 646


Classroom Count = 7

233 228 226 218 224 231 233 240 245 249

Capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment CLASS




Grade

T K 262 270 256 275 0 0 0

K 1113 1113 1223 1202 0 110 -21 18 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 1100 1155 1126 1219 42 13 -4 9 0.0% 0.2% 2 2 0

2 1178 1131 1143 1141 31 -12 15 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 1208 1191 1154 1157 13 23 14 17 0.0% 0.1% 1 1 0

4 1195 1228 1186 1172 20 -5 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 1208 1229 1217 1221 34 -11 35 20 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 1174 1229 1236 1259 21 7 42 27 0.0% 0.2% 2 2 0

7 1234 1221 1252 1279 47 23 43 37 0.0% 0.3% 4 4 0

8 1157 1241 1220 1250 7 -1 -2 0 0.0% 0.4% 5 5 0

9 1138 1128 1186 1173 -29 -55 -47 -47 0.0% 1.1% 13 13 0

10 1143 1125 1082 1155 -13 -46 -31 -33 0.0% 2.3% 27 27 0

11 1063 1123 1044 1055 -20 -81 -27 -44 0.0% 6.0% 63 66 3

12 1024 1059 1111 1002 -4 -12 -42 -26 0.0% 10.1% 101 104 3

Totals 15197 15443 15436 15560 11.5 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.0% 2.3% 218 224 6


CLASS




Traditional School


Classroom Count = 9





17/18 29 6 0 307 0 0 -8 278

18/19 29 0 0 307 0 0 -8 278 153

19/20 29 0 0 307 0 0 -8 278 153

20/21 29 0 0 307 0 0 -8 278 308

21/22 31 2 0 307 0 0 -8 276 489

22/23 32 1 0 307 0 0 -8 275 556

23/24 31 -1 0 307 0 0 -8 276 646


Classroom Count = 9

32 29 23 29 29 29 29 31 32 31

Capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Capacity & Projected Enrollment Pathway Community Day School




Grade

T K 262 270 256 275 0 0 0

K 1113 1113 1223 1202 0 110 -21 18 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 1100 1155 1126 1219 42 13 -4 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 1178 1131 1143 1141 31 -12 15 9 0.1% 0.0% 1 1 0

3 1208 1191 1154 1157 13 23 14 17 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 1195 1228 1186 1172 20 -5 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 1208 1229 1217 1221 34 -11 35 20 0.2% 0.0% 2 2 0

6 1174 1229 1236 1259 21 7 42 27 0.1% 0.0% 1 1 0

7 1234 1221 1252 1279 47 23 43 37 0.0% 0.1% 1 1 0

8 1157 1241 1220 1250 7 -1 -2 0 0.0% 0.4% 5 5 0

9 1138 1128 1186 1173 -29 -55 -47 -47 0.0% 0.2% 2 2 0

10 1143 1125 1082 1155 -13 -46 -31 -33 0.0% 0.7% 8 8 0

11 1063 1123 1044 1055 -20 -81 -27 -44 0.0% 0.4% 4 4 0

12 1024 1059 1111 1002 -4 -12 -42 -26 0.0% 0.5% 5 5 0

Totals 15197 15443 15436 15560 11.5 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.0% 0.2% 29 29 0


Pathway Community Day School



Student Attendance Matrix

This chart summarizes the transfers in and out of each elementary school as were seen by the yellow dots and blue dots on the school attendance maps. In addition, the data has been analyzed to determine the total in-flow and out-flow rates for each school. The school with the largest in-flow rate is Madison Elementary and the school with the largest out-flow rate is Tilley Elementary.

ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE MATRIX

SCHOOL: Bio

la-P

ersh

ing

Har

vest

Her

nd

on

-Bar

sto

w

Ho

ugh

ton

-Kea

rney

Lid

del

l

Mad

iso

n

Mck

inle

y

Po

lk

Riv

er B

luff

Ro

ose

velt

Saro

yan

Stei

nb

eck

Teag

ue

Tille

y

Tota

l Re

sid

ing

AREA

Inter-District 3 9 7 13 25 24 13 4 16 8 21 14 2 10 169

Biola-Pershing 227 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 4 0 11 0 2 0 257

Harvest 0 631 5 4 4 0 2 2 0 2 6 10 2 2 670

Herndon-Barstow 3 8 624 1 46 1 4 4 28 0 14 1 1 1 736


Liddell 0 2 2 0 579 0 0 2 41 0 3 0 0 0 629

Madison 0 4 0 6 0 376 9 4 3 1 0 2 0 7 412

McKinley 0 10 2 3 3 23 758 26 2 4 11 10 1 18 871

Polk 0 7 2 4 0 9 6 709 0 4 1 1 1 19 763

River Bluff 0 3 4 1 26 0 0 2 665 0 9 0 0 0 710

Roosevelt 0 2 3 0 3 4 4 17 5 452 2 8 4 10 514

Saroyan 0 3 4 0 10 0 0 2 32 0 641 0 0 0 692

Steinbeck 0 8 0 0 8 4 3 9 1 4 18 715 14 1 785

Teague 1 29 4 1 7 6 2 11 1 3 8 5 686 0 764

Tilley 0 1 0 3 4 244 29 16 0 9 0 4 0 374 684

Correction Factor* 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1

Total Attending 235 724 660 224 717 695 830 810 799 490 745 770 713 442 8,854

Intra-Ins 5 85 29 25 113 295 59 98 117 30 83 41 25 58 1,063

Inter-Ins 3 9 7 13 25 24 13 4 16 8 21 14 2 10 169

Total In-Flow 8 94 36 38 138 319 72 102 133 38 104 55 27 68 1,232

Intra-Outs 30 39 112 13 50 36 113 54 45 62 51 70 78 310 1,063

Net Transfers -22 55 -76 25 88 283 -41 48 88 -24 53 -15 -51 -242 169

% In Flow Students 3.4% 13.0% 5.5% 17.0% 19.2% 45.9% 8.7% 12.6% 16.6% 7.8% 14.0% 7.1% 3.8% 15.4% 13.9%

% Out Flow Students 11.7% 5.8% 15.2% 6.5% 7.9% 8.7% 13.0% 7.1% 6.3% 12.1% 7.4% 8.9% 10.2% 45.3% 12.0%

* The correction factor represents the difference between the student data download counts and the actual CBEDS counts.

SCHOOL OF ATTENDANCE

R

E

S

I

D

E

N

C

E



Student Residency and Enrollment Comparison

This chart compares each individual elementary school enrollment to the students that reside within the school attendance boundary. Utilizing this data helps make it easy to see which schools have the largest and smallest enrollments as well as which boundaries are most populated. Schools with more students enrolled than those living in the boundary have a net transfer into the school. This is typically found at schools with special programs such as Gate or Dual Immersion, schools housing students from overcrowded or Program Improvement (PI) schools, and schools with more capacity than the student population living in the boundary.

25

7

67

0 73

6

21

0

62

9

41

2

87

1

76

3

71

0

51

7

69

2 78

6

76

5

68

4

23

5

72

4

66

0

23

3

71

7

69

5

83

0

81

0

79

9

49

0

74

5

77

0

71

3

44

2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Bio

la-P

ers

hin

g

Har

vest

He

rnd

on

-B

arst

ow

Ho

ugh

ton

-K

ear

ne

y

Lid

de

ll

Mad

iso

n

McK

inle

y

Po

lk

Riv

er

Blu

ff

Ro

ose

velt

Saro

yan

Ste

inb

eck

Teag

ue

Tille

y

Elementary SchoolsStudent Residents & Enrollment

Boundary

Enrollment



District Projections This graph shows a summary of the projections for the entire District. It shows the current enrollment for 2017/18, the historic enrollment for the past nine (9) years, and the projected enrollment for the next six (6) years. The end result is a total of 17,445 students in the District in 2023/24.

4378 4514 4636 4663 4890 4932 4971 4936 4990 5084 5245 5429 5408 5422 5403 5390

3341 3478 3470 3447 3482 3613 3639 3762 3709 3735 3695 3664 3773 3897 4087 4226

2359 2333 2321 24132455 2404 2453 2514 2524 2565 2617 2629 2610 2607 2638 2772

4212 4222 4390 43554419 4556 4500 4481 4549 4510 4628 4750 4836 4945 5005

505714290 1454714817 14878

1526115537 15584 15717 15772 15894

1618516472 16627 16871

1713317445

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Stu

den

ts

YEAR

10 Year Enrollment History &6 Year Enrollment Projection

TK-3 4-6 7-8 9-12 SDC



One Year Enrollment Projection Summary

The projection for next year (2018/19) shows an increase of 291 students. The largest declines will be seen at grades 5 and 10. The largest increases are at grades 2 and 11. These projections assume the transfers between schools remain consistent. If changes in facilities, schedules, programs or policies are made, then the patterns may be impacted.

School T K K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL

Biola-Pershing 14 29 36 40 22 38 28 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 235

Harvest 31 120 87 109 92 95 97 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 731

Herndon-Barstow 20 92 95 100 102 91 96 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 697


Liddell 27 115 96 110 103 89 96 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 720

Madison 12 103 111 80 83 111 94 119 0 0 0 0 0 0 713

McKinley 24 116 138 88 126 97 101 129 0 0 0 0 0 0 819

Polk 30 115 104 126 106 131 97 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 836

River Bluff 20 108 122 106 105 118 121 135 0 0 0 0 0 0 835

Roosevelt 18 65 73 59 57 66 85 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 483

Saroyan 24 102 103 117 100 98 93 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 745

Steinbeck 30 108 99 121 101 105 101 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 782

Teague 21 89 82 92 96 94 118 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 702

Tilley 17 83 66 80 74 38 55 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 454

El Capitan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 379 359 0 0 0 0 738

Glacier Point 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 480 470 0 0 0 0 950

Rio Vista 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 419 438 0 0 0 0 857

Central High 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,217 1,132 1,036 892 4,277

Pershing Cont 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 46 68 121

CLASS 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 4 5 13 27 66 104 224

Pathway Community Day School 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 5 2 8 4 5 29

NPS 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 5

Totals 292 1,271 1,238 1,250 1,194 1,193 1,214 1,288 1,314 1,303 1,234 1,173 1,152 1,069 16,185

Current CBEDS 277 1,216 1,236 1,162 1,193 1,195 1,243 1,297 1,294 1,271 1,201 1,185 1,089 1,035 15,894

Net Change 15 55 2 88 1 -2 -29 -9 20 32 33 -12 63 34 291

Cohort Change 22 14 32 0 19 45 17 9 -37 -28 -33 -20

YEAR 18/19, 1 Year Proj.

Central Unified School DistrictEnrollment Projections



Enrollment Projection Summary by Grade

Current

Enrollment

Grade 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

TK 277 292 299 274 276 276 276

K 1,216 1,271 1,302 1,193 1,204 1,235 1,272

1 1,236 1,238 1,294 1,332 1,228 1,238 1,273

2 1,162 1,250 1,252 1,316 1,356 1,255 1,267

3 1,193 1,194 1,282 1,293 1,358 1,399 1,302

4 1,195 1,193 1,192 1,288 1,303 1,371 1,416

5 1,243 1,214 1,212 1,219 1,318 1,337 1,408

6 1,297 1,288 1,260 1,266 1,276 1,379 1,402

7 1,294 1,314 1,306 1,287 1,298 1,315 1,427

8 1,271 1,303 1,323 1,323 1,309 1,323 1,345

9 1,201 1,234 1,267 1,286 1,286 1,272 1,287

10 1,185 1,173 1,206 1,237 1,267 1,270 1,259

11 1,089 1,152 1,140 1,184 1,216 1,251 1,258

12 1,035 1,069 1,137 1,129 1,176 1,212 1,253

Total TK-3 5,084 5,245 5,429 5,408 5,422 5,403 5,390

Total 4-6 3,735 3,695 3,664 3,773 3,897 4,087 4,226

Total 7-8 2,565 2,617 2,629 2,610 2,607 2,638 2,772

Total 9-12 4,510 4,628 4,750 4,836 4,945 5,005 5,057

District Totals 15,894 16,185 16,472 16,627 16,871 17,133 17,445

Enrollment Projection Summary by Grade

Central Unified School District



Enrollment Projection Summary by School

Current

Enrollment

School 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

Biola-Pershing 235 235 238 239 231 229 221

Harvest 724 731 765 785 803 820 829

Herndon-Barstow 660 697 715 738 763 780 778

Houghton-Kearney 233 232 236 233 248 259 291

Liddell 717 720 728 715 714 720 719

Madison 695 713 723 735 743 764 804

McKinley 830 819 826 839 863 868 909

Polk 810 836 864 894 903 912 912

River Bluff 799 835 854 867 870 878 882

Roosevelt 490 483 487 478 482 509 533

Saroyan 745 745 749 771 790 806 795

Steinbeck 770 782 790 792 802 821 818

Teague 713 702 687 651 650 648 647

Tilley 442 454 477 491 504 524 536

Elementary Totals 8,863 8,984 9,139 9,228 9,366 9,538 9,674

El Capitan 712 738 751 716 719 774 789

Glacier Point 918 950 933 937 935 906 971

Rio Vista 863 857 871 882 878 882 926

Middle Totals 2,493 2,545 2,555 2,535 2,532 2,562 2,686

Central High 4,169 4,277 4,388 4,471 4,567 4,618 4,665

High Totals 4,169 4,277 4,388 4,471 4,567 4,618 4,665

Pershing Cont 117 121 125 126 130 133 135

CLASS 218 224 231 233 240 245 249

Pathway Community Day School 29 29 29 29 31 32 31

NPS 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Other Totals 369 379 390 393 406 415 420

District Totals 15,894 16,185 16,472 16,627 16,871 17,133 17,445

Annual Change 291 287 155 244 262 312

Central Unified School DistrictEnrollment Projection Summary by School



School Facility Utilization The following chart shows the current and projected utilization rates for each school. It has been color coded with blue representing schools with a utilization rate of under 70%, yellow representing a utilization rate of at least 70% but under 80% and red for the schools that have over 100% utilization.

For 2017, the school with the highest percentage of available space is Roosevelt Elementary and the school that is impacted the most is Tilley Elementary.

School Facility Utilization 2017/18 2023/24 2017/18 2023/24

District Current Projected Current Projected

Elementary Schools Classrooms Capacity Enrollment Enrollment Utilization Utilization

Biola-Pershing 10 273 235 221 86.1% 81.0%

Harvest 33 918 724 829 78.8% 90.3%

Herndon-Barstow 31 860 660 778 76.7% 90.4%

Houghton-Kearney 12 351 233 291 66.4% 83.0%

Liddell 32 876 717 719 81.8% 82.0%

Madison 36 1,010 695 804 68.8% 79.6%

McKinley 35 968 830 909 85.8% 93.9%

Polk 33 918 810 912 88.2% 99.3%

River Bluff 36 1,010 799 882 79.1% 87.4%

Roosevelt 28 786 490 533 62.3% 67.8%

Saroyan 33 910 745 795 81.9% 87.4%

Steinbeck 35 976 770 818 78.9% 83.8%

Teague 32 902 713 647 79.0% 71.7%

Tilley 17 454 442 536 97.3% 118.0%

Sub-Totals 403 11,212 8,863 9,674 79.0% 86.3%

Middle Schools

El Capitan 33 1,129 712 789 63.1% 69.9%

Glacier Point 31 1,060 918 971 86.6% 91.6%

Rio Vista 40 1,368 863 926 63.1% 67.7%

Sub-Totals 104 3,557 2,493 2,686 70.1% 75.5%

High Schools

Central High 145 4,959 4,169 4,665 84.1% 94.1%

Sub-Totals 145 4,959 4,169 4,665 84.1% 94.1%

Other Schools

Pershing Cont 9 225 117 135

CLASS 7 239 218 249

Pathway Community Day School9 307 29 31

NPS 0 0 5 5

Sub-Totals 25 771 369 420

District Totals 677 20,500 15,894 17,445 77.5% 85.1%



The color-coded map below shows the six (6) year, 2023/24 projected utilization for the elementary schools.


(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)(82%)


(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)


(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)(87.4%)


(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)(83.8%)


(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)(71.7%)


(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)(118%)


(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)(93.9%)


(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)(90.3%)


(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)(83%)


(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)(79.6%)


(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)(99.3%)


(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)(67.8%)


(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)(90.4%)Biola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-PershingBiola-Pershing

(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)(81%)

Projected Utilization Map

Elementary Schools

> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100%> 100% (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)

808080808080808080 - - - - - - - - - 100100100100100100100100100%%%%%%%%% (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10)

707070707070707070 - - - - - - - - - 808080808080808080%%%%%%%%% (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)

< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70%< 70% (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)

ENTRAL UNIFIED SHOOL DISTRIT DEMOGRAPHI …€¦ · SCHOOL FACILITY UTILIZATION ... The district-wide and school-specific enrollment projections are meant to serve as a planning tool

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