ENSEMBLES GA Prague Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

ENSEMBLES GA Prague

Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel

Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß


Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany

• Who we are / what we do

• Current status / recent progress

• Plans for the next phase / contributions to deliverables and milestones

http://www.ensembles-eu.org/



Who we are / what we do

• Center for Environmental Systems Research at the University of Kassel

• WaterGAP – a global model of water availability and water uses

• European-wide probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on river discharge (18 catchments)




Current status / recent progress

• Response surface method

• Impact of climate change (T and P)on river discharge

• Change in T and P uniform over time

• Change in T and P differs with seasons (critical seasons)



Elbe

Po


Current status / recent progress

perturbed physics experiment of the Hadley Centre1990 – 2010 2080 – 2100



Points of concern



Points of concern

• Aggregate climate info to basin size

• Need climate info to “adjust” response surfaces (extend study / zoom in)

• Difference to multi model simulations: “seasonality” (JJA vs. individual months)

Elbe



Plans for the next phase /contributions to deliverables and milestones

• D6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. + Month 42

• D6.19: Report on the assessment of changes in regional weather and climate and their impacts in East Mediterranean.

Month 46 with RT2B

• = D2B.26 Month 48 with RT2B

• D6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe.

Month 54



Plans for the next phase /contributions to deliverables and milestones

• M6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models:

Month 42

• Major milestone 6.4: Completion of probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts, and impacts at seasonal to decadal timescales for the core activities: crops, water resources, forests, energy, insurance and human health. Month 48



Thank you!



WaterGAP

Water useWater usemodelmodel

Water useWater usemodelmodel

HydrologyHydrology model model

HydrologyHydrology model model

•Land CoverLand Cover•ClimateClimate

•PopulationPopulation•IncomeIncome•TechnologyTechnology•ClimateClimate

Water AvailabilityWater Availability (by 0.5° grid-cell)(by 0.5° grid-cell)•RunoffRunoff•RechargeRecharge

Water WithdrawalsWater Withdrawals DomesticDomestic (by country)(by country) Industrial Industrial (by country)(by country) Irrigation Irrigation (by grid-cell)(by grid-cell) Livestock Livestock (by grid-cell)(by grid-cell)

WatershedWatershedWater StressWater Stress

WatershedWatershedWater StressWater Stress



PotentialEvapotranspiration

Interception

ActualEvapotranspiration

Precipitation

Canopy water balance

Soil water balance

Groundwater recharge

Surface runoff

Inputdatatttttt

Precipitation Temperature Radiation Cloudiness Landcover Root depth

WaterGAP Daily water balance per grid cell

ENSEMBLES GA Prague Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Joseph Alcamo & Martina Weiß

Documents

university of kassel

germany plans

ensembles ga prague

individual months elbe

time change

risk of impacts

river discharge change

phase contributions