Ensemble Prediction with Perturbed Initial and Lateral Boundary Conditions over Complex Terrain Jinhua Jiang, Darko Koracin, Ramesh Vellore Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada Weather Impacts Decision Aids (WIDA) Workshop, 2012, Reno, NV
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Ensemble Prediction with Perturbed Initial and Lateral Boundary Conditions over Complex Terrain Jinhua Jiang, Darko Koracin, Ramesh Vellore Desert Research.
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Ensemble Prediction with Perturbed Initial and Lateral Boundary
Conditions over Complex TerrainJinhua Jiang, Darko Koracin, Ramesh Vellore
Desert Research Institute, Reno, NevadaDesert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada
Weather Impacts Decision Aids (WIDA) Workshop, 2012, Reno, NV
Page 2
Outline
Introduction
WRF Model
Perturbed Initial conditions (ICs)
Perturbed lateral boundary conditions (LBCs)
ICs’ ensemble
LBCs’ ensemble
Conclusion & discussion
Page 3
Introduction
Where is the uncertainty of NWP from?
A Initial-boundary value problem
Model frame/structure ( Grid structure, model discretization)Physical parameterizations
Domain size, grid resolution
Model topography, SST, soil moisture…
“KNOW WHAT YOU KNOW,KNOW WHAT YOU DO NOT KNOW.”“ “知之为知之,不知为不知
Ref: Lorenz, 1982, Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus (1982), 34, 505-513.
Ref: Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, et al. 2008, A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note. NCAR/TN-475+STR.