. . . . . . . . . . College of Lake County 19351 West Washington Street Grayslake Illinois 60030-1198 Voice (847) 543-2096 Fax (847) 223-9371 Office of Institutional Effectiveness, Planning and Research Enrollment Projections . . . . . . . . . . FY2005-2007 Credit Hours by Division and Department October 2004 Nancy McNerney, Assistant Vice President Arlene Santos-George, Research Coordinator Carrie Zack, Research Assistant Marilyn Vancrey-Schambari, Administrative Secretary Sam del Pozo, Research Assistant T:\Enrollment Projections\ProjFY05-07\cover.doc
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College of Lake County 19351 West Washington Street Grayslake Illinois 60030-1198 Voice (847) 543-2096 Fax (847) 223-9371
Office of Institutional Effectiveness, Planning and Research
Enrollment Projections
. . . . . . . . . .
FY2005-2007
Credit Hours by Division and Department
October 2004
Nancy McNerney, Assistant Vice President Arlene Santos-George, Research Coordinator Carrie Zack, Research Assistant Marilyn Vancrey-Schambari, Administrative Secretary Sam del Pozo, Research Assistant
T:\Enrollment Projections\ProjFY05-07\cover.doc
Enrollment Projections FY 2005-2007
This report presents the enrollment projections for each division and their departments for the next three fiscal years—FY2005-2007. Projections are based on mid-term credit hours for the individual departments. Part 1 of the report presents the projections for FY05-07. Part 2 presents a variance analysis of the projected FY04 and actual FY04 enrollment for: 1) the original model projections; and 2) model projections with deans’ revisions. It explains the accuracy of the College’s projections of credit hours. Lastly, Part 3 of the report explains the data and methodology used for the projections, and the process of dean’s review.
Part I
Enrollment Projections College Projections The tables and charts on pages 5-17 show actual and projected credit hours from FY 1997-2007. Overall, the College is projecting annual percentage increases of 1.6% in FY05, 2.2% in FY06 and 2.5% in FY07 (Table 1, page 5). This would mean an increase of 3,668 credit hours from 232,885 in FY04 to 236,553 in FY05. Credit hours are forecast at 241,848 and 247,815 in FY06 and FY07, respectively. The forecasts for the next three years reflect a continuing upward trend since FY95 but at a slower rate of growth.1 The growth rate in FY04 dropped to 2% from higher rates of growth (6.8% and 5.6%) in the previous two fiscal years. Due to revisions by a couple of deans, the enrollment projections were higher than the original model projections. The rationale for the revisions are indicated in the tables for each division (pp.6-12). Projections for the degree and non-degree areas are as follows: •
•
In the degree-credit area, the College is projecting a 1.8% (+3,667) increase from 205,861 credit hours in FY04 to 209,528 credit hours in FY05 (Table 1, page 5). Credit hours are forecast at 213,332 (1.8% increase) in FY06 and 217,728 (2.1% increase) in FY07. For purposes of projecting tuition revenue, only the degree-credit hours should be used since nearly all of the hours in Adult and Community Education do not carry tuition or fee charges.
In the non-degree credit area, revisions by the Dean of Adult and Community Education Division resulted in 0% growth in FY05 but a strong 5.5% growth each in
1 Except for FY 1999 when the College experienced a drop of 0.5% in credit hours, enrollment was on an upward trend since FY95. Enrollment in degree-credit divisions declined by 0.3% while the ACE division declined by 2.4% in FY99.
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FY06 and FY07. Credit hours are expected to stay at 27,025 in FY05, 28,516 in FY06, and 30,087 in FY07 (Table 1, page 5).
Division and Department Projections The following summarizes the projected enrollments for FY05-07 for the divisions and their departments.
Among the degree-credit divisions, the Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences Division is expected to have 43,671 credit hours in FY05—the highest numerical growth of 1,397 credit hours or 3.3% increase from the previous year (Table 1, page 5). Growth slows down to 2.1% and 2.5% in FY06 and FY07, respectively resulting in 44,591 credit hours in FY06 and 45,701 in FY07. The largest increases in credit hours in FY05 are in Auto Body Repair (+412), Automotive Technology (+398), and Mathematics (+326) as shown in Table 6, page 10).
•
•
•
•
•
The Communication Arts, Humanities & Fine Arts Division is forecast to have the second highest numerical growth (+1,252) to reach 63,193 credit hours in FY05 (Table 1, page 5). This is a 2% increase over the previous year and a steady increase of about 2% each year is expected through FY06 and FY07. The largest increase increases in credit hours are in English (+444), Humanities (+180), and Art (+156) in FY05 (Table 5, page 9). This division has the highest number of credit hours in the entire college.
The next highest numerical increase is in the Social Sciences Division, where an increase of 560 credit hours or 1.2% is forecast for FY05 (Table 1, page 5). The Division is projected to have 45,520 credit hours in FY05, 46,122 credit hours (+601, +1.3%) in FY06, and 46,722 credit hours (+600, +1.3%) in FY07. The largest increase in credit hours is expected for Psychology (+154), Criminal Justice (+130), and History (+120) as shown in Table 7, page 11.
The Biological and Health Sciences Division is projected to have 33,659 credit hours in FY05. This is an increase of 343 credit hours or 1% over last year (Table 1, page 5). However, higher growth of 3% (+1,013 credit hours) in FY06 and 4.8% (+1,656) in FY07 are expected. The highest numerical increases are forecast for Biology (+519 or 4%), Chemistry (+179, 4%) and Nursing (+147, 2.8%) in FY05 (Table 3, page 7).
Based on model projections (i.e., no revisions were made by the dean), the Business Division is projected to have 22,439 credit hours in FY05 for a marginal 0.5% increase. However, model forecasts indicate a decline of 0.6% in FY06 and a decline of 1.5% in FY07 (Table 1, page 5). Enrollment in Administrative Office Systems is expected to have the largest numerical increase of 126 credit hours in FY05 to reach 4,382 credit hours (Table 4, page 8).
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•
•
•
•
Student Development is forecast to have less than 1,100 credit hours in the next three years. Growth of 1% are forecast for FY05 and FY06 which drops to 0.2% in FY07 (Table 1, page 5). Cooperative Education is forecast to have 484 credit hours or a 1.1% decline in FY05 while Personal Development is predicted to have 562 hours or +2.8% in FY05 (Table 8, page 12).
In the non-degree area, the Adult and Continuing Education Division is expected to have no increase in FY05 according to the dean’s revised projections. Credit hours are expected to be 27,025 in FY05, 28,516 (+5.5%) in FY06, and 30,087 (+5.5%) in FY07 (Table 1, page 5). Revisions were made to the original model projections because of fluctuations in funding which results in classes being offered or cut. While no increase is forecast for all the departments in FY05, forecasts for FY06 (Table 2, page 6) show that ESL has the largest increase (+1,269 or 7%). Growth in ESL continues in FY07 to reach 20,770 (+1,359 or 7%). In FY06, ABE is expected to reach 4,010 credit hours (+68, 1.7%); GED is expected to generate 2,140 credit hours (+42, 2%); and Vocational Education is forecast to have 1,989 credit hours (+57, 3%).2
Table 9 on pages 14-15 presents the projections at the department level, sorted from highest to lowest projected percent increase in FY05. The highest increase of 3% is projected for many departments. 3 Meanwhile, the largest percent declines are in Industrial Electrician (-10%), Human Services (-8.6%), Physical Education (-8.4%), Medical Laboratory Technician (-7.3%), and Drafting (-6.7%).
Table 10 on pages 17-19 presents the projections at the department level, sorted from highest to lowest projected numeric change in FY05. Biology is forecast to have the largest numeric increase in credit hours (+519), followed by English (+444), Auto Body Repair (+412), Automotive Technology (+398), Mathematics (+326). The largest numeric decline are projected in Dental Hygiene (-592), Physical Education (-103), Human Services (-101), Business (-88), and Accounting (-86).
2 General Studies is no longer reported. It is replaced by Vocational Education, which includes all courses with the PCS code 1.6. These include VST, VPET, VALH, VVOC, etc. 3 The maximum percent increase was capped at 3% for the model projections due to the past year’s slower rate of growth as well as data for Summer 2004 and Fall 2004. For a complete explanation of the methodology, refer to Part III of the report on page 25.
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Part I Tables and Charts
4
Table 1College of Lake CountyMidterm Credit Hours
Actual and Projected FY97-07(Based on Moving Eight-Year Average of Annual Percent Change Adjusted for Available FY05 Data)
Notes:1/ Vocational Education includes all vocational programs under the PCS Code 1.6 in the Continuing Education department. Prior to FY00, VED was reported for VST--Vocational Skills Training and General Studies.2/ The model's projections were revised by the Dean of Adult Education Division. Over the past 2 years, ACEDV funding has fluctuated widely. This has resulted in constantly changing the numbers of sections offered at extension sites. This unpredictability resulted in drops in student enrollment. With additional funds from the Educational Fund account, the division can schedule their classes and promote them earlier. In Fall 2004, ACEDV has already seen a 5% increase and expect more with late starting classes.
Projected Number Change Projected Percent ChangeProjected Credit Hours 2/
Notes:1/ The model projections were revised by the Dean of Biological and Health Sciences. Following the general trend in healthcare, BIO enollment has been increasing rapidly for the past 3 years (11.9%, 5.3%, 14.1%). A more moderate increase (higher than the model's projection) is expected by the division for the next 3 years.2/ The model projections were revised by the Dean of Biological and Health Sciences. Following the general trend in healthcare, CHM enollment has been increasing rapidly for the past 4 years (5.9%, 10.1%, 19.2%, 10.6%). A more moderate increase (higher than the model's projection) is expected by the division for the next 3 years.3/ The model projections were revised by the Dean. No entering dental hygiene class was accepted for Fall 2004, which means that the FY2005 enrollment will only reflect enrollment of the 2nd year class; hence the projected decline of 50%. In Fall 2005, a new entering class will be accepted; however, there will be no 2nd year class because of the attrition that often occurs between first and second year classes. In FY2006, the DHY program will be up to having 2 years of enrolled classes again.4/ Model projections revised by the Dean. In the past, the college offered an AAS degree in MLT as well as Phlebotomy certificate under the MLT heading. The AAS program has been inactive status for the past 3 years. Since then, the Phlebotomy certificate has been the only program offered. Enrollment is projected to be stable because Phlebotomy courses fill consistently and it is not likely that enrollment will increase because clinical sites are already at full capacity.
Projected Number Change Projected Percent ChangeProjected Credit Hours
% Change YTY 3.3% 2.6% 1.2% 3.4% -1.0% 9.4% 8.9% 3.7% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%Notes:1/ No revisions on the model projections were made by the Dean of Communication Arts, Humanities and Fine Arts Division.
Projected Credit Hours 1/ Projected Percent ChangeProjected Number Change
Notes:1/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean based on actual Fall 2004 enrollments. Enrollment should be steady for the next few semesters.2/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean because there is a plan to offer 2 sections in the fall semester and to develop a new course AST II in the spring.3/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean based on actual Fall 2004 enrollments. Enrollment should be steady for the next few semesters. The division will also offer more sections after the division moves to the Technology Building.4/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean based on actual Fall 2004 enrollment. Enrollment should be steady for the next few semesters. There will be new curriculum offerings after the division moves to the Technology Building.5/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean based on actual Fall 2004 enrollment. New recruitment activities are being initiated for this program.6/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean because a new EST program is planned to be offered in spring 2005 with the Navy.7/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean based on actual Fall 2004 enrollment. Additional sections are being offered at the Lakeshore campus and Southlake Center. With the addition of a new classroom/laboratory area in reference to the remodeling project, new sections will be offered at the Grayslake campus.8/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean because there is only one course offered now. Enrollments vary based on the need.9/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean because new curriculum is being developed and will be offered in spring 2005. New recruitment activities are being implemented in fall 2004.10/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean because a new course is being offered this fall 2004.11/ Model's projections were revised by the Dean based on actual Fall 2004 enrollments. Enrollment should be steady for the next few semesters.
Projected Number ChangeProjected Number ChangeProjected Credit Hours
Table 9. Actual and Projected Mid-term Credit Hours, With Dean's Revisions FY04-06 Sorted by Percent Change for FY05Projected (With Dean's Revisions)Actual
Table 9. Actual and Projected Mid-term Credit Hours, With Dean's Revisions FY04-06 Sorted by Percent Change for FY05Projected (With Dean's Revisions)Actual
Table 9. Actual and Projected Mid-term Credit Hours, With Dean's Revisions FY04-06 Sorted by Percent Change for FY05Projected (With Dean's Revisions)Actual
Source: EECA Enrollment Analysis Various years (from SIMS4170) and S3 term files.
NOTES:1/ Revised to include the vocational courses VED with PCS code 1.6. These include Vocational Allied Health, Vocational Cosmetoogy, Vocational Arts and Crafts, Vocational Animal Care and Training, Vocational Photography, Vocational Skills Training, and Vocational-Vocational Training.2/ Revised based on revised S3 FY01 datafile. Revisions were made to correct for out of state students.
Table 10. Actual and Projected Mid-term Credit Hours, With Dean's Revisions FY05-07 Sorted by Numeric Change for FY05Actual Projected (With Dean's Revisions)
Table 10. Actual and Projected Mid-term Credit Hours, With Dean's Revisions FY05-07 Sorted by Numeric Change for FY05Actual Projected (With Dean's Revisions)
Table 10. Actual and Projected Mid-term Credit Hours, With Dean's Revisions FY05-07 Sorted by Numeric Change for FY05Actual Projected (With Dean's Revisions)
Source: EECA Enrollment Analysis Various years (from SIMS4170) and S3 term files.
NOTES:1/ Revised to include the vocational courses VED with PCS code 1.6. These include Vocational Allied Health, Vocational Cosmetoogy, Vocational Arts and Crafts, Vocational Animal Care and Training, Vocational Photography, Vocational Skills Training, and Vocational-Vocational Training.2/ Revised based on revised S3 FY01 datafile. Revisions were made to correct for out of state students.
Part II A Comparison of Projected and Actual FY03 Credit Hours
For this part of the report, the projected credit hours and the actual credit hours for FY04 are compared for the results of: 1) the model projections; and 2) the revised deans’ projections. The charts and tables on pages 23-28 show the predicted and actual mid-term credit hours for each division and department. The model projections versus the actual credit hours are presented in Tables 11-12 and Figure 2 on pp. 23-25. The revised deans’ projections versus the actual credit hours are presented in Tables 13-14 and Figure 3 on pp. 26-28. The data used in projecting FY03 credit hours and actual FY03 credit hours data were obtained from the same source indicated in Part 1 of the report. Tables 11 and 13 and Figures 2 and 3 show the comparison of projected and actual enrollments for each division; and Tables 12 and 14 present the comparison at the department level. The difference between the projected FY04 and the actual FY04 mid-term credit hours is presented in the variance columns in each table. A positive variance indicates an over-estimation of credit hours, while a negative variance indicates an under-estimation. For new departments resulting from new initiatives or curriculum revisions, a comparison between predicted and actual data was not possible due to unavailable and/or not comparable data. The following summarizes the analysis. • As shown in Table 11, actual total College credit hours were overprojected by the
model projections by 1.2% (better than the revised deans’ projections). For the degree credit area, actual credit hours were greater than model projections by 0.5%. The model predictions were very close to the actual credit hours. However, the model forecast for the non-degree credit area was over actual credit hours by 14.5%.
• Table 11 shows that model forecasts for the divisions tend to have relatively larger
variances than the forecast for the College. The model projections for Communication Arts Division, Engineering Division, Student Development, and Social Sciences were close to the actual credit hours by + or – 3%. Model projections for Biology Division was under-projected by 8.3%; over-projected for Business Division by 11.9%; over-projected for Adult Education Division by 14.5%.
Table 12 provides a detailed comparison of the model projections to actual credit hours at the department level. It is important to note that projections at the department level tend to be less precise; hence, the variances range from –79% to +135%. However, some of the projections for the departments were within + or –3% of actual credit hours (e.g., Adult Education, Nursing, Humanities, Music, Philosophy, Speech, Architecture, Engineering, Geology, Mathematics, Geography, Political Science, and Psychology).
•
• The revised projections (with the deans’ revisions) show that, overall for the College,
credit hours were over-projected by 3.2% as shown in Table 13. For the degree credit area, the revised projections were over by 1.7% while the projections for the non-
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degree credit area were over-projected by 14.5%. In the case of the non-degree credit area, the Adult Education Division dean did not have any revisions to the model projections.
• Revisions to the model projections were made by the Business Division, Biology
Division, and Social Sciences Division. The deans’ revised projections for these areas resulted in: over-projection by 2.6% for the Biology Division, over-projection by 6% for the Business Division, and over-projection by 6.3% for the Social Sciences Division.
• Table 14 shows the variances for projected credit hours and actual credit hours for the
revised projections.
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Division Projected Actual Variance Description of VarianceBIO 30,558 33,316 -8.3% actual greater than projectedBUS 24,988 22,334 11.9% actual less than projectedCOM 62,093 61,941 0.2% actual less than projectedEMPS 42,202 42,274 -0.2% actual greater than projectedSD 1,048 1,021 2.7% actual less than projectedSOC 43,830 44,960 -2.5% actual greater than projectedSub-total 204,721 205,846 -0.5% actual greater than projected
ACE 30,945 27,024 14.5% actual less than projected
Total College 235,666 232,870 1.2% actual less than projected
Table 11Model Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY04
By Division
Figure 2Model Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY04
By Division
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10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
BIO BUS COM EMPS SD SOC ACE
Division
Projected Actual
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Division Department
Projected Credit
Hours FY04
Actual Credit Hours
FY04 Variance Description of VarianceACE ABE 3,551 3,942 -9.9% actual greater than projectedACE ADE 896 911 -1.6% actual greater than projectedACE ESL 22,555 18,142 24.3% actual less than projectedACE GED 2,096 2,098 -0.1% actual greater than projectedACE VED (1.6) 1,847 1,932 -4.4% actual greater than projected
Total 30,945 27,024 14.5% actual less than projectedBIO BIO 11,506 12,971 -11.3% actual greater than projectedBIO CHM 3,976 4,477 -11.2% actual greater than projectedBIO DHY 1,262 1,184 6.6% actual less than projectedBIO EMT 1,474 2,114 -30.3% actual greater than projectedBIO HIT 1,919 1,994 -3.8% actual greater than projectedBIO HRT 1,356 1,564 -13.3% actual greater than projectedBIO MIM 1,528 1,789 -14.6% actual greater than projectedBIO MLT 351 446 -21.3% actual greater than projectedBIO NUR 5,295 5,246 0.9% actual less than projectedBIO PED 1,676 1,236 35.7% actual less than projectedBIO SRG 216 295 -26.8% actual greater than projected
Total 30,558 33,316 -8.3% actual greater than projectedBUS ACC 4,214 3,827 10.1% actual less than projectedBUS AOS (BSS) 4,428 4,256 4.0% actual less than projectedBUS BUS 6,578 6,228 5.6% actual less than projectedBUS CIS 8,739 6,975 25.3% actual less than projectedBUS FSM 1,029 1,048 -1.9% actual greater than projected
Total 24,988 22,334 11.9% actual less than projectedCOM ARA 64 56 14.3% actual less than projectedCOM ART 5,720 5,209 9.8% actual less than projectedCOM CHI 166 216 -23.1% actual greater than projectedCOM COM 1,519 1,407 7.9% actual less than projectedCOM CSS 314 297 5.6% actual less than projectedCOM DNC 944 1,038 -9.1% actual greater than projectedCOM ENG 23,164 23,380 -0.9% actual greater than projectedCOM FRN 645 548 17.7% actual less than projectedCOM GER 267 368 -27.3% actual greater than projectedCOM HUM 6,000 6,003 0.0% actual greater than projectedCOM ITL 185 256 -27.6% actual greater than projectedCOM JPN 328 516 -36.5% actual greater than projectedCOM LAS N/A N/A N/A Not applicable.COM LTA (LMT) 338 244 38.4% actual less than projectedCOM MUS 2,319 2,339 -0.8% actual greater than projectedCOM PHI 7,294 7,173 1.7% actual less than projectedCOM RUS 112 188 -40.4% actual greater than projectedCOM SPA 4,399 4,089 7.6% actual less than projectedCOM SPE 7,750 7,899 -1.9% actual greater than projectedCOM THE 567 715 -20.8% actual greater than projected
Total 62,093 61,941 0.2% actual less than projected
Table 12Model Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY04
By Department
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Division Department
Projected Credit
Hours FY04
Actual Credit Hours
FY04 Variance Description of Variance
Table 12Model Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY04
By Department
EMPS ABR 469 397 18.0% actual less than projectedEMPS ARC 415 420 -1.1% actual greater than projectedEMPS AST 224 204 9.8% actual less than projectedEMPS AUT 3,102 3,277 -5.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS BCT 487 525 -7.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS CAD 1,184 1,101 7.5% actual less than projectedEMPS CIV 106 138 -23.1% actual greater than projectedEMPS CNA 1,329 882 50.7% actual less than projectedEMPS CNC 231 277 -16.6% actual greater than projectedEMPS DFT 236 100 135.6% actual less than projectedEMPS EGR 420 418 0.4% actual less than projectedEMPS EIT 75 185 -59.5% actual greater than projectedEMPS ELC 229 282 -18.8% actual greater than projectedEMPS ELT 1,130 983 14.9% actual less than projectedEMPS FLU N/A N/A N/A Not applicable.EMPS GEO 2,504 2,505 0.0% actual greater than projectedEMPS IS 34 30 13.3% actual less than projectedEMPS IMR 200 231 -13.5% actual greater than projectedEMPS MCD 164 165 -0.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS MCS 232 213 9.1% actual less than projectedEMPS MFG 0 0 0.0% Not applicable.EMPS MTH 24,905 24,976 -0.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS MTT 351 249 41.0% actual less than projectedEMPS PHY 1,956 2083 -6.1% actual greater than projectedEMPS RAC 1,888 2066 -8.6% actual greater than projectedEMPS WLD 294 387 -24.1% actual greater than projectedEMPS WWW 38 180 -79.0% actual greater than projected
Total 42,202 42,274 -0.2% actual greater than projectedSD PDS 531 508 4.4% actual less than projectedSD EWE 518 513 1.0% actual less than projected
Total 1,048 1,021 2.7% actual less than projectedSOC ANT 1,618 2,055 -21.2% actual greater than projectedSOC CRJ 4,070 4,332 -6.0% actual greater than projectedSOC ECE 1,295 1,470 -11.9% actual greater than projectedSOC ECO 4,097 3,858 6.2% actual less than projectedSOC EDU 1,524 1,573 -3.1% actual greater than projectedSOC FST 449 411 9.2% actual less than projectedSOC GEG 1,991 1,959 1.6% actual less than projectedSOC HST 6,824 6,549 4.2% actual less than projectedSOC HUS 1,107 1,168 -5.2% actual greater than projectedSOC PSC 2,584 2,619 -1.3% actual greater than projectedSOC PSY 11,669 11,697 -0.2% actual greater than projectedSOC SOC 6,524 6,789 -3.9% actual greater than projectedSOC SSI 0 0 0.0% Not applicable.SOC SST 78 282 -72.3% actual greater than projectedSOC SWK 0 198 -100.0% actual greater than projected
Total 43,830 44,960 -2.5% actual greater than projected
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Division Projected Actual Variance Description of VarianceBIO 32,439 33,316 -2.6% actual greater than projectedBUS 23,678 22,334 6.0% actual less than projectedCOM 62,093 61,941 0.2% actual less than projectedEMPS 42,201 42,274 -0.2% actual greater than projectedSD 1,108 1,021 8.5% actual less than projectedSOC 47,789 44,960 6.3% actual less than projectedSub-total 209,308 205,846 1.7% actual less than projected
ACE 30,945 27,024 14.5% actual less than projected
Total College 240,253 232,870 3.2% actual less than projected
Revised Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY04By Division
Table 13
Figure 3Revised Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY04,
By Division
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
BIO BUS COM EMPS SD SOC ACE
Division
Projected Actual
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Division Department
Projected Credit
Hours FY04
Actual Credit Hours
FY04 Variance Description of VarianceACE ABE 3,551 3,942 -9.9% actual greater than projectedACE ADE 896 911 -1.6% actual greater than projectedACE ESL 22,555 18,142 24.3% actual less than projectedACE GED 2,096 2,098 -0.1% actual greater than projectedACE VED (1.6) 1,847 1,932 -4.4% actual greater than projected
Total 30,945 27,024 14.5% actual less than projectedBIO BIO 12,324 12,971 -5.0% actual greater than projectedBIO CHM 4,452 4,477 -0.6% actual greater than projectedBIO DHY 1,280 1,184 8.1% actual less than projectedBIO EMT 1,608 2,114 -23.9% actual greater than projectedBIO HIT 1,973 1,994 -1.1% actual greater than projectedBIO HRT 1,446 1,564 -7.5% actual greater than projectedBIO MIM 1,514 1,789 -15.4% actual greater than projectedBIO MLT 410 446 -8.1% actual greater than projectedBIO NUR 5,694 5,246 8.5% actual less than projectedBIO PED 1,500 1,236 21.4% actual less than projectedBIO SRG 238 295 -19.3% actual greater than projected
Total 32,439 33,316 -2.6% actual greater than projectedBUS ACC 4,214 3,827 10.1% actual less than projectedBUS AOS (BSS) 4,428 4,256 4.0% actual less than projectedBUS BUS 6,578 6,228 5.6% actual less than projectedBUS CIS 7,429 6,975 6.5% actual less than projectedBUS FSM 1,029 1,048 -1.9% actual greater than projected
Total 23,678 22,334 6.0% actual less than projectedCOM ARA 64 56 14.3% actual less than projectedCOM ART 5,720 5,209 9.8% actual less than projectedCOM CHI 166 216 -23.1% actual greater than projectedCOM COM 1,519 1,407 7.9% actual less than projectedCOM CSS 314 297 5.6% actual less than projectedCOM DNC 944 1,038 -9.1% actual greater than projectedCOM ENG 23,164 23,380 -0.9% actual greater than projectedCOM FRN 645 548 17.7% actual less than projectedCOM GER 267 368 -27.3% actual greater than projectedCOM HUM 6,000 6,003 0.0% actual greater than projectedCOM ITL 185 256 -27.6% actual greater than projectedCOM JPN 328 516 -36.5% actual greater than projectedCOM LAS N/A 0 N/A actual less than projectedCOM LTA (LMT) 338 244 38.4% actual less than projectedCOM MUS 2,319 2,339 -0.8% actual greater than projectedCOM PHI 7,294 7,173 1.7% actual less than projectedCOM RUS 112 188 -40.4% actual greater than projectedCOM SPA 4,399 4,089 7.6% actual less than projectedCOM SPE 7,750 7,899 -1.9% actual greater than projectedCOM THE 567 715 -20.8% actual greater than projected
Total 62,093 61,941 0.2% actual less than projected
Revised Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY04Table 14
By Department
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Division Department
Projected Credit
Hours FY04
Actual Credit Hours
FY04 Variance Description of Variance
Revised Projections vs. Actual Credit Hours FY04Table 14
By Department
EMPS ABR 469 397 18.0% actual less than projectedEMPS ARC 415 420 -1.1% actual greater than projectedEMPS AST 224 204 9.8% actual less than projectedEMPS AUT 3,102 3,277 -5.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS BCT 487 525 -7.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS CAD 1,184 1,101 7.5% actual less than projectedEMPS CIV 106 138 -23.1% actual greater than projectedEMPS CNA 1,329 882 50.7% actual less than projectedEMPS CNC 231 277 -16.6% actual greater than projectedEMPS DFT 236 100 135.6% actual less than projectedEMPS EGR 420 418 0.4% actual less than projectedEMPS EIT 75 185 -59.5% actual greater than projectedEMPS ELC 229 282 -18.8% actual greater than projectedEMPS ELT 1,130 983 14.9% actual less than projectedEMPS FLU N/A N/A NA Not applicable.EMPS GEO 2,504 2,505 0.0% actual greater than projectedEMPS IS 34 30 13.3% actual less than projectedEMPS IMR 200 231 -13.5% actual greater than projectedEMPS MCD 164 165 -0.6% actual greater than projectedEMPS MCS 232 213 8.9% actual less than projectedEMPS MFG 0 0 0.0% Not applicable.EMPS MTH 24,905 24,976 -0.3% actual greater than projectedEMPS MTT 351 249 41.0% actual less than projectedEMPS PHY 1,956 2083 -6.1% actual greater than projectedEMPS RAC 1,888 2066 -8.6% actual greater than projectedEMPS WLD 294 387 -24.1% actual greater than projectedEMPS WWW 38 180 -79.0% actual greater than projected
Total 42,201 42,274 -0.2% actual greater than projectedSD PDS 531 508 4.4% actual less than projectedSD EWE 577 513 12.5% actual less than projected
Total 1,108 1,021 8.5% actual less than projectedSOC ANT 2,000 2,055 -2.7% actual greater than projectedSOC CRJ 4,450 4,332 2.7% actual less than projectedSOC ECE 1,500 1,470 2.0% actual less than projectedSOC ECO 4,200 3,858 8.9% actual less than projectedSOC EDU 1,650 1,573 4.9% actual less than projectedSOC FST 449 411 9.2% actual less than projectedSOC GEG 2,050 1,959 4.6% actual less than projectedSOC HST 7,500 6,549 14.5% actual less than projectedSOC HUS 1,290 1,168 10.4% actual less than projectedSOC PSC 2,650 2,619 1.2% actual less than projectedSOC PSY 12,800 11,697 9.4% actual less than projectedSOC SOC 7,100 6,789 4.6% actual less than projectedSOC SSI N/A 0 N/A actual less than projectedSOC SST 150 282 -46.8% actual greater than projectedSOC SWK 0 198 -100.0% actual greater than projected
Total 47,789 44,960 6.3% actual less than projected
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Part III Data and Methodology
Data and Methodology Data for mid-term credit hours were used to project enrollment in the next three fiscal years. The mid-term credit hours were derived from course-level data on total number of students enrolled and the course credit hours. Course-level data came from the Course Section Enrollment (S3) files submitted to the Illinois Community College Board for each fiscal year. The method used in this projection was an eight-year moving average of annual percent changes. Annual percent changes (APC) were calculated for the last eight years (FY97-FY04). These were then averaged to predict FY05 enrollment; thereafter, the last eight years APCs—including the forecast year’s APC—were averaged to predict enrollment in the two remaining forecast years. Projected years 2006 and 2007, therefore, incorporated the last eight years’ increases including the last year’s projected increase. After carefully analyzing the data, the 8-year moving average methodology was used for the projections for two reasons: 1) it yielded more conservative annual percentage growths and declines; and 2) it accounted for the cyclical trends in many programs that can be observed in the past eight years. An extra step of ensuring that the projections for FY05 are reasonable was taken to account for the available Summer 2004 and Fall 2004 data. Since the growth rate for the past year has slowed down to only 2% in FY04 and actual growth in Summer and Fall 2004 data were also not as strong as previous years, each department’s projected percent change was cut by 1%. To minimize the risks of over-projecting and under-projecting, percent increases higher than 3 percent were capped at 3% and those lower than –10% were capped at –10%. For programs with less than eight years, the percent changes between the available years were averaged. If a program only existed for three years or less, the last FY enrollment was carried forward for the projected three years. Deans’ Review The dean of each of the major divisions reviewed the preliminary projections for departments in their area and made revisions they believed appropriate. This mathematical model assumes that if everything else is constant, then enrollment will continue along current trend lines. For the FY05-07 projections, however, the deans revised many of the department level projections upwards with their own rationale. Revisions by the deans considered certain factors that can influence change or limit enrollment. Deans were asked to revise projections where they knew of planned changes
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that the model would not predict (e.g., new programs, new promotional efforts, revised scheduling, program elimination, etc.).4 In certain cases, these planned changes resulted in more than the maximum 3% annual increase imposed by the methodology. Deans also were aware of changes in demand for their programs due to changing local job market conditions. Lastly, deans can revise the projections where they know that there are facility, faculty, equipment, and other constraints. Hence, in certain cases, some departments can have projections subject to supply constraints.
4 The deans of the Business, Social Science, Biology, and Cooperative Education Divisions submitted revisions.