Enough for all? Bernd Möller, Ph.D. Sustainable Energy Planning & Management Group Department of Development and Planning Aalborg University, Denmark Biomass resource mapping under spatio-economic constraints
Jan 15, 2016
Enough for all?
Bernd Möller, Ph.D.Sustainable Energy Planning & Management GroupDepartment of Development and PlanningAalborg University, Denmark
Biomass resource mapping under spatio-economic
constraints
Spatial and economic constraints of biomass for
energy• Production of photosynthetic biomass is highly
dispersed• Biomass “consumes” land: area competition• Life cycle of biomass: include substitution effects
• CO2 neutrality only in the long run: monitoring and maintenance of global forest carbon stocks
• Economies of scale, energy efficiency and competition with fossil fuels
• Sourcing in DK: import vs. local supply strategies
Global biomass is unevenly distributed
Global distribution of biomass flux in energy units. Source: Sørensen, 2001
The geography of biomass supply
Forest biomass (left) and population (right) are unequally distributed in Europe, suggesting significant problems in connecting sources and users.
Large scale trade of biomass is just at its commence: what will the future bring?
Data sources: European Forest Institute 2003; Eurostat 2006
Renewable energy in Denmark: Biomass
63,4 PJ, 7.3% of prim. energy cons.
Source: Energy Statistics 2005, Danish Energy Authority.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '07
PJ
Wind Straw Wood Biogas Waste Heat Pumps
Resource geography and technology aspects
• Feedstock: residues versus dedicated crops– Likely impacts on nutrient balance, soil humus,
water table, biodiversity or greenhouse gases– Overall energy balance of energy crops can be
poor– Domestic energy crops lead to substitution
effects of global commodities
• Energy technologies– Difficult to burn or convert, learning curves
• Transport and allocation– Biomass is unequally distributed and often
inaccessible
Domestic biomass potential & consumption
[PJ] Potential (ENS)
Demand (2005)
Share utilised
Demand (ref. 2030)
Potential (Felby)
Demand(IDA 2030)
Straw 55 18 32.5% 27 55 25
Wood, total 40 38.3 95.8 45 40 40
Manure, biogas
40 4 9.3% 6.5 40 32
Manure, fibre fract.
0 0 0.0% 0 108 0
Energy crops 0 0 0.0% 0 144 54
M.H.Waste 30 30 99.7% 52 30 30
Sum 165 89.5 54.3% 131 417 180
Source: Danish Association of Engineers (IDA), Energy Plan 2030
Trade balance of selected biomass fuels, DK
-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012345
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Bal
ance
[PJ/
yr]
Straw Wood chips Wood pellets
Data source: Energy Statistics 2007, Danish Energy Agency
Available straw resources and competing uses mapped using CTtools, Conterra Aps
Competing uses of residual straw and its geographical distribution
Harvested straw: 5.5 Mio tons
Straw available for energy: 0.9 Mio tons
Bioenergy systems in Denmark
Biomass is used in decentralised district heating and cogeneration plants (left); in centralised plants (right); and in 20% of all buildings.
Location, resources and economy
Distribution of biomass resources in a region establishes transport costs and plant size
For a given location an optimal plant size can be defined
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Plant capacity
Co
sts
Transport Investment Total
Möller, B. and Nielsen, P.S. (2007): Analysing transport costs of Danish forest wood chip resources by means of continuous cost surfaces. Biomass & Bioenergy 31 (5) 291–298.
Wood chips in Denmark: calculating spatially explicit costs of supply
Plant location and size influence supply costs.
Allocation ofbiomass to plants
Allocated straw resources:
Who will have the purchasing power when resources become scarce?
Adding new demand will affect local heat prices.
Conclusions• Biomass resources must be analysed as an
integrated part of future energy systems:– Relative to regional availability (potentials &
costs)– Including economies and efficiencies of scale– With respect to regional allocation
• Energy crops and residual biomass can not necessarily be treated as any other commodity
• Eventually biomass will become as scarce as fossil fuels and food.
Please visit
www.energyplanning.aau.dk
for information on the international M.Sc. Programme
Sustainable Energy Planning & Management
at Aalborg University