Enlarged Committee for Route Charges 27.11.20 ITEM 2 Information paper CER/115/2020/3734-REV FINAL DATA FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE COST-BASES AND UNIT RATES REVISED OVERVIEW – FINAL FIGURES (NOVEMBER 2020) Submitted by the Agency This subject does not require a CER decision KEY ELEMENTS States applying the determined cost method have presented the 2021 unit rates based on the Performance Plans submitted in November 2019 and calculated in accordance with Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/317. For these States, the average unit rate will remain the same in 2021 compared to 2020. States applying the full cost recovery method have updated their 2021 traffic and costs forecasts according to the latest available information. Compared to 2020, the ensuing average unit rate will increase by 47%. Compared to 2020, the weighted average unit rate in national currencies of all Contracting States will increase by 6.3% in nominal terms, with a weighted average inflation rate estimated at 2.2% for 2021. According to the latest STATFOR forecast (scenario 2), the estimated total number of service units should decrease by 54% in 2021 (77 million) compared to 2019 actual (167 million).
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Enlarged Committee for Route Charges...Chart 1 on the next page presents the actual service units 2015-2019 and the forecast service units 2020-2021. STATFOR forecast (Scenario 2 -
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Enlarged Committee for Route Charges 27.11.20 ITEM 2
Information paper CER/115/2020/3734-REV FINAL DATA FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE COST-BASES AND UNIT RATES
REVISED OVERVIEW – FINAL FIGURES (NOVEMBER 2020) Submitted by the Agency
This subject does not require a CER decision
KEY ELEMENTS States applying the determined cost method have presented the 2021 unit rates based on the Performance Plans submitted in November 2019 and calculated in accordance with Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/317. For these States, the average unit rate will remain the same in 2021 compared to 2020. States applying the full cost recovery method have updated their 2021 traffic and costs forecasts according to the latest available information. Compared to 2020, the ensuing average unit rate will increase by 47%. Compared to 2020, the weighted average unit rate in national currencies of all Contracting States will increase by 6.3% in nominal terms, with a weighted average inflation rate estimated at 2.2% for 2021. According to the latest STATFOR forecast (scenario 2), the estimated total number of service units should decrease by 54% in 2021 (77 million) compared to 2019 actual (167 million).
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CRCO Overview – Final data November 2020
The CRCO overview on en-route charges, service units and unit rates covers the period 2015-2021. The 2021 data are the final figures that Member States are presenting at the 115th Session of the enlarged Committee, in accordance with the EUROCONTROL Principles. States applying the determined cost method have presented the 2021 unit rates based on the Performance Plans submitted in November 2019 and calculated in accordance with Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/317. They will calculate their unit rates for the remaining three years of RP3 in accordance with the EU Regulation on exceptional measures, based on the performance plans that they will submit on 01/11/2021. The States applying the full cost recovery method updated their reporting tables according to the latest developments for the 2021-2024 period.
PART I - Aggregated Data 1. TRAFFIC OVERVIEW
In the context of the Covid-19 crisis, STATFOR has published three forecast scenarios in November 2020 as presented in Table 1 below. Traffic is expressed in terms of total service units (chargeable plus exempted) for all States participating in the common route charges system.
Table 1 - STATFOR November Forecast Scenarios
a) Scenario 1: Vaccine is available in 2021: Vaccine widely made available for travellers by summer 2021. Recovery to 2019 level in 2024
b) Scenario 2: Vaccine is available in 2022: Vaccine widely made available for
travellers by summer 2022. Recovery to 2019 level in 2026? c) Scenario 3: Vaccine is not effective: Lingering infection and low passenger
confidence. Recovery to 2019 level in 2029?
Some observations:
Chart 1 on the next page presents the actual service units 2015-2019 and the forecast service units 2020-2021.
STATFOR forecast (Scenario 2 - November 2020 - pink bars in Chart 1) are, respectively, 60% and 54% lower than the service units forecast used by the States in the calculation of the 2020 and 2021 unit rates (dark blue bars in Chart 1).
Chart 1: Total Service Units – All States (in million service units)
Table 2, Table 2 (a) and Table 2 (b) below show:
The actual service units until 2019 and the latest STATFOR Forecast (scenario 2) for 2020 and for 2021,
The service units used by the States for the calculation of the unit rates.
Table 2: Total Service Units – All States
States applying the determined costs method
Table 2 (a): Total Service Units – States (Determined) States applying the full cost recovery method
Table 2 (b): Total Service Units – States (Full Costs)
0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0
2015A
2016A
2017A
2018A
2019A
2020F
2021F
TSU Actual (2015-2019)
TSU Forecast (unit rate calculation)
STATFOR Forecast November 2020
Total Service Units - All States (in million) 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021FTSU Actual (2015-2019) - STATFOR November Forecast (a) 137,6 143,4 153,1 162,5 167,0 68,9 76,8% variation 4% 4% 7% 6% 3% -59% 11%Determined/Forecast TSU - unit rate calculation (b) 133,6 138,3 141,7 148,4 154,0 172,8 165,9(a)/(b) in % (STATFOR Forecast/States Forecast) 3% 4% 8% 10% 8% -60% -54%
Total Service Units (Determined Costs) 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021FTSU Actual (2015-2019) - STATFOR November Forecast (a) 118,8 124,3 132,2 139,5 143,3 56,3 62,8% variation 5% 5% 6% 6% 3% -61% 11%TSU Forecast Determined States - unit rate calculation (b) 116,2 118,6 121,9 126,6 129,2 142,4 145,8(a)/(b) in % (STATFOR Forecast/States Forecast) 2% 5% 8% 10% 11% -60% -57%
Total Service Units (Full Costs) 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021FTSU Actual (2015-2019) - STATFOR November Forecast (a) 18,8 19,0 21,0 23,0 23,7 12,6 14,0% variation 0% 1% 10% 10% 3% -47% 12%TSU Forecast Full Costs States - unit rate calculation (b) 17,4 19,7 19,8 21,8 24,8 30,4 20,1(a)/(b) in % (STATFOR Forecast/States Forecast) 8% -4% 6% 5% -5% -59% -30%
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2. EXCHANGE RATE VARIATIONS
States calculated national cost bases and unit rates in national currency. For establishing a single EUROCONTROL bill in euros, national unit rates are converted into euros and adjusted monthly. Therefore, exchange rates variations have an impact on the euro amounts charged to users. Table 3 shows the variations in exchange rates between September 2019 (exchange rates used to establish the 2020 unit rates approved in November 2019) and September 2020 (exchange rates used to establish the 2021 final rates – final figures): - The national currencies in two charging zones appreciated. Everything else being
equal, higher amounts in euro should be billed in 2020 as compared to the November 2019 forecasts (approved unit rates for 2020).
- The national currencies in thirteen charging zones depreciated. Everything else being equal, lower amounts in euro should be billed in 2020 as compared to the November 2019 forecasts (approved unit rates for 2020).
Table 3: Exchange rates of September 2019 and September 2020 3. VARIATIONS IN UNIT RATES, SERVICE UNITS AND CHARGES BETWEEN
2020 AND 2021
Table 4 shows the variations in States’ unit rates expressed in national currencies between 2020 and 2021. For this purpose, the same exchange rates (September 2020) have been applied for their conversion into euro. Charges displayed in Table 4 are equal to the product of the respective unit rates and forecast service units.
The charges are expressed in million euro and total service units in millions. Unit rates are expressed in euro. The average inflation in the EUROCONTROL area is a weighted average of inflation rates (average weighted by route charge amounts in euro).
Table 4: Comparison between 2020 and 2021 forecast charges, total service units and unit rates
Overall, the weighted average unit rate in national currencies will increase by 6.3% in nominal terms between 2020 and 2021, with a weighted average inflation rate estimated at 2.2% in 2021.
Chart 2 shows the average unit rates for 2020 and 2021 as calculated in Table 4 together with the average unit rates of the previous years. The latter are calculated by dividing the “total route charges” by the “total service units”.
Comparison 2020 and 2021 based on € rates at September 2020 exchange rates
2020 FIN (XR September 2020) 2021 FIN (XR September 2020) Variations 2021/2020
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Chart 2: Average national charge per service unit
Based on the STATFOR Scenario 2 of November 2020: The estimated 2020 route charges revenues (EUR 3.2 billion) for all States should
represent 40% of the 2019 revenue (EUR 8 billion). The estimated 2021 route charges revenues (EUR 3.7 billion), should represent 46%
of the 2019 revenue (EUR 8 billion).
58,655,8
52,850,2
47,5 46,149,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
15A 16A 17A 18A 19A 20F 21F
Average National Chargeper service unit (Euro)
All States
Average National Charge Avg Determined Avg Full costs
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4. 2021 ADJUSTMENTS AND OTHER REVENUES
2021 Unit Rate Calculation
Table 5 (a) – Overview of 2021 Unit Rate Calculation
Table 5 (a) above shows the forecast/determined costs, the sum of carry-overs and other adjustments as well as the other revenues taken into account for the calculation of the 2021 unit rates. For the charging zones subject to the determined costs method, adjustments and other revenues represent in total 7.1% of the determined costs (1.3% of the forecast costs for the full costs recovery charging zones).
Adjustments Breakdown
Table 5 (b) – Detailed adjustments taken into account in the 2021 unit rates
Table 5 (b) presents the breakdown of the total adjustments and carry overs as reported in column (2) of Table 5 (a) and taken into account in the 2021 unit rates.
5. COMPARISON BETWEEN DETERMINED/FORECAST AND ACTUAL COSTS
Tables 6 (a) and 6 (b) consolidate the determined/forecast national costs and actual costs presented by Member States at the 115th Session of the enlarged Committee:
- National costs comprise costs in respect of Air Navigation Service Providers, Meteorological Service Providers as well as States costs (including States’ shares of the EUROCONTROL costs);
- Costs are nominal gross costs for the year, prior to reductions in respect of exempted flights or other income and without carry-overs;
- Costs for years 2012-2019 have been converted into euro at the average exchange rates of the related years. For the years 2020 and beyond, amounts have been converted into euro at the September 2020 exchange rates.
Determined Costs States Table 6 (a) shows the differences between the determined and the actual costs during RP1 and in RP2.
Table 6 (a) - Differences between determined and actual costs In RP1 and in 2015-2018 States/ANSPs reduced their actual costs below the level of their determined costs. The cumulated difference between the determined and the actual costs over the years 2015-2019 amounts to EUR 1.113 billion. Full Costs Recovery States Table 6 (b) shows the differences between the actual and forecast national costs as taken into account for the calculation of the yearly unit rates (forecast costs presented at the November session of the enlarged Committee).
Table 6 (b) - Differences between forecast and actual costs
The actual costs are below the forecast costs during the years 2015-2016 and were above in 2017 and 2018. In 2019, the actual costs were 2% below the forecast costs. Actual costs are ultimately charged to airspace users.
Cost details 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015-19 Total
Total Actual Costs 553 594 586 579 627 2.9407,7% 7,3% -1,3% -1,2% 8,3%
Differences -38Forecast vs. Actual
20 10 -14 -65 12
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6. BALANCE BETWEEN AMOUNTS BILLED AND ACTUAL COSTS 2015-2019
Table 7 shows, for the years 2015-2019, the balances between the amounts billed and the actual costs incurred by the States applying the determined costs method. All amounts have been converted into euro at the average exchange rate of the corresponding year. The balances between amounts billed and actual costs have been broken down into two sub-totals. - The first sub-total represents the total net amounts retained by States/ANSPs.
It comprises: a) The differences between the determined and the actual costs; b) The sum of adjustments (+ or -) that have been applied to the determined costs
(inflation adjustment, costs exempt, bonus and penalties, other revenues); c) The retained gains or losses due to the application of the traffic risk sharing.
The cumulated net amount retained by States/ANSPs reaches EUR 1.856 billion over the five years 2015-2019.
- The following items represent the amounts carried over from previous years and the
amounts to be carried forward to following years.
Table 7 - Balance between amounts billed and actual costs
The sum of the surplus and of the actual cost of capital (EUR 3.710 billion) represents some 9.9% of the route charges invoiced to airspace users. The contribution to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization as obtained by adding the depreciation costs would amount to EUR 9.175 billion for the period 2015-2019, representing some 24.6% of the route charges invoiced to airspace users. For the States applying the full costs recovery method the first sub-total would be equal to zero (the full costs recovery method ensures the recovery of the actual costs).
Overall 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total
1. Amounts billed (Actual TSU*applied national unit rate) 7.431 7.445 7.525 7.592 7.350 37.342
2. Actual costs 6.901 6.776 6.800 6.983 7.158 34.617
Amounts billed - Actual costs (1)-(2) 530 669 726 609 192 2.725 a) Determined costs - Actual costs 267 323 319 187 17 1.113
b) Inflation - Exemp. costs - Bonus/penalties - Other revenues 92 0 8 95- 17- 11-
c) Retained gain/loss for traffic risk sharing 35 113 181 206 218 753
Surplus (a+b+c) 394 436 509 299 218 1.856 d) Amounts carried over from previous years 91 86 133- 150- 505- 611-
e) Amounts to be carried over 45 147 351 460 478 1.481
Actual Cost of Capital 394 374 366 384 337 1.855
Surplus+Cost of capital 789 810 875 683 555 3.710 Relative shares / Amounts billed (in %) 10,6% 10,9% 11,6% 9,0% 7,5% 9,9%
Actual Depreciation 858 832 839 1.537 1.398 5.464
Surplus+Cost of capital+Depreciation 1.646 1.642 1.714 2.220 1.953 9.175
The second sub-total would have the same two components, i.e. the amounts carried over from previous years and the amounts to be carried forward.
7. NOVEMBER SUBMISSION
Almost all States met the reporting deadline. New Reporting Tables templates with automatic checks for determined costs States have been used and all the States have successfully transferred the data via the Common Portal. States and Users Associations have received the published reporting tables at the same time.
8. ANNEXES
Annex I shows the determined costs, forecast total service units, forecast chargeable costs and unit rates of full costs recovery States for the 2020-2024 period. Costs and unit rates have been converted into euro at the September 2020 exchange rates. The maps at Annex II present the unit rates and service units.
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PART II - ADJUSTMENTS 1. DETAILS OF ADJUSTMENTS
Table 8 shows the forecast/determined costs, the sum of carry-overs and other adjustments as well as the other revenues taken into account for the calculation of the 2021 unit rates. Amounts have been converted into euro at the September 2020 exchange rates.
Table 8 – Overview of the 2021 unit rate calculation
Charging ZonesForecast/
Determined Costs
Adjustments
Cross-financing between charging zones
Other revenues Grand Total (1+2+3-4)
Service Units National Unit Rates (5/6)
Forecast/ Det. Unit
Cost (1/6)
Adjust. /SU
(2+3+4)/6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Austria 232.272 -17.589 0 214.683 3.480 61,69 66,74 -5,05
All charging zones 8.802.717 -583.625 -85.200 8.133.695 165.874 49,04 53,07 -3,52100% 6,6% 1,0% 92,4%
Determined Costs
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2. DETAIL OF ADJUSTMENTS AND CARRY-OVERS
Table 9 details the carry-overs and bonuses/penalties as shown in Column 2 of Table 8. This table only concerns for States applying the determined costs method, references are the row numbers in Reporting Table 2.
Table 9 – Detail of carry-overs and bonuses or penalties