Energy Technologies for the 21 st Century: The Role for Sustainable Energy—Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Clean Urban Transportation Deborah Lynn.

Energy Technologies for the 21st Century: The Role for Sustainable

Energy—Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Clean Urban

Transportation

Deborah Lynn BlevissSustainable Markets for Sustainable

Energy ProgramInter-America Development Bank

for Roundtable 5, 18th World Energy Congress

Global Energy Challenges in the 21st Century

• Minority of global population will enjoy high level of energy services; majority will have very basic level of services

• With rising overall demand, increasing strains on local and global environmental integrity, especially from fossil fuels

• More frequent periods of tightening fuel supplies with resulting impact on geopolitics

Global Frameworks Likely to be Used to Address Challenges

• Range from trade initiatives to debt/poverty reduction agreements to environmental conventions

• Example—UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC)/Kyoto Protocol

New Requirements for Energy Technologies

• Technologies that can reduce level of carbon emissions (and other greenhouse gases) for given level of energy services

• Technologies that can increase access to energy/electricity services more quickly, efficiently and cost effectively, especially for rural populations

Promising Technologies that Meet Requirements

• For lower carbon intensity, energy efficiency and renewable energy resources

• For expediting access to energy services of poor, off-grid distributed power systems– Range from systems that provide power to

individual consumers to mini-grid distribution systems

Energy Efficiency

• Since oil crises of 70s, great strides made from production through transmission to final end-use– Production gains include efficient combined-

cycle natural gas-fired systems, advanced coal combustion

– Innovations such as combined heat and power (CHP) blur traditional transmission role

End-Use Energy Efficiency Gains Substantial

• Products on market today with energy use ½ to less than 1/10 level of products a decade ago

• Expectation that energy efficiency gains will continue at same pace, particularly for end-use

• Efficiency gains will include optimizing individual technologies into systems

Source: Interlaboratory Working Group, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions

The Challenge for Energy Efficiency and Transportation

• Great strides in individual transportation technologies—hybrid electric vehicles on market, fuel cell vehicles will be shortly

• Efficiency gains could be overwhelmed by growth in vehicle use and ownership—WEC projected 55% increase in energy use for mobility between 1995 and 2020

• Increased need to take systems approach to transportation sector—mobility shift to more efficient modes, urban structure to support the modes.

Transit Road- and Signalization-Preference

Energy Efficient, Clean-Fueled Vehicles

Limited Parking Access Transit-Oriented, Mixed Use Urban Development

Integration with Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities

Constrained Access to Limited-Occupancy-Vehicles with Electronic Tolling

Pictures courtesy of Michael Kwartler/Environmental Simulation Center

“BEST PRACTICE” URBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM OF 2020

Renewable Energy

• Great strides in commercial application of renewable energy systems– Wind power systems growth rate >25% annually;

offshore systems in Europe, Brazil plans substantial additions

– Promising strides also in small hydropower systems, geothermal, photovoltaics (PVs)

– Biomass for power has potential with combustion technology advances; biomass role for transportation not clear

Distributed Power Systems

• In developed countries, strides in combined heat and power systems (CHP) for industrial and commercial users; integration of PVs in buildings for base level of electric load

• In developing countries, strides in off-grid systems to reach rural populations– PV-based solar home systems

– Mini-grid systems using biomass wastes, small hydro, wind, diesel generators

Significant Barriers Constraining Potential for These Technologies

• Lack of consistent research commitment– “Feast or famine” funding hinders development in time

for next “crisis”

– Difficult to keep professionals in the field

• Immature industry– Undercapitalized, cannot compete in global market

– High turnover in ownership

– Slow to develop energy services to complement technology sales, especially in developing countries

Significant Barriers Constraining Technology Potential (cont’d)

• Inconsistent national and international policies– Oscillate between strong incentives to develop

technologies to “hands-off” approach

– Abrupt policy shift very debilitating

– Policy conflicts among different government entities

• Limited number of successful models and examples– Second- and third-generation models particularly

lacking

Options to Address These Barriers

• Multi-year funding commitments from governments for R&D

• Coordination among governments—developed and developing—on R&D– Possibly IEA, if includes developing countries

• Innovative private sector partnerships, especially in energy services– Partnership among several to invest in energy services– Partnership with NGOs to undertake capacity-building,

market development activities

Options to Address These Barriers (cont’d)

• Monitoring of national/international policies, and models/examples by international agency(ies); sharing information widely– IEA (if includes developing countries)

– UNFCCC Secretariat

• Partnership of multilateral banks and other donors to catalyze additional models/examples– Creation of competitive funds to support due diligence

and start-up