Energy Systems Laboratory p. 1 Jeff Haberl, Bahman Yazdani, Charles Culp Energy Systems Laboratory Texas Engineering Experiment Station Texas A&M University System STATEWIDE AIR EMISSIONS CALCULATIONS FROM ENERGY EFFICIENCY, WIND AND RENEWABLES May 2008
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Energy Systems Laboratory p. 1 Jeff Haberl, Bahman Yazdani, Charles Culp Energy Systems Laboratory Texas Engineering Experiment Station Texas A&M University.
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Energy Systems Laboratory p. 1
Jeff Haberl, Bahman Yazdani, Charles CulpEnergy Systems Laboratory
Texas Engineering Experiment StationTexas A&M University System
STATEWIDE AIR EMISSIONS CALCULATIONS FROM ENERGY
EFFICIENCY, WIND AND RENEWABLES
May 2008
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 2
Electricity Production from Wind Farms (2002-2007)
• Installed capacity of wind turbines was 3,026 MW (March 2007).• Announced new project capacity is 3,125 MW by 2010. • Lowest electricity period occurs during Ozone Season Period.
Texas Wind Power Generation (Source: ERCOT & PUC)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Win
d Po
wer
Gen
erat
ion
(MW
H)
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (M
W)
Ercot Data - MWH Ercot Data - MW
Total Installed Capacity in Ercot Area by 2006 Total Installed Capacity in Texas by 2006
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 3
Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms
What issues did TCEQ ask ESL to resolve to calculate OSP NOx reductions from wind farms in the base year?
Capacity Factors Using NOAA Daily Models
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Final Issue: TCEQ asked ESL to develop an integrated tool to project NOx reductions from wind farms through 2020 by county, using eGRID, including:
+ discount,
+ degradation,
+ T&D losses &
+ growth.
Energy savings summary: (program wise)
Base year 1999Projection year 2020
Adjustment factors
Annual degradation
factor5 5.00%
T&D loss 0.00%Initial discount
factor625.00%
Growth factorAccording to SB 20, section 39.904
Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms
OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2005 Cum.2006
Cum.2007
Cum.2008
Cum.2009
Cum.2010
Cum.2011
Cum.2012
Cum.2013
Cum.2014
Cum.2015
Cum.2016
Cum.2017
Cum.2018
Cum.2019
Cum.2020
To
ns/O
zon
e S
easo
n D
ay
ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal BuildingsFurnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 8
Upgrade ImpactUse NOx Avg.Life Factor
Industries: 60% 23% 5 – 20 yr 1 – 5Vehicles: 19% 54% 7 – 10 yr 4 – 5Buildings: 21% 22% 25 – 50 yr 5 – 11
Single Family Houses Multifamily House Commercial Buildings Natural Gas (SF+MF+Commercial)
Non-attainment and Affected Counties Other ERCOT Counties
NOx emissions reductions calculated from new residential and commercial construction using EPA’s eGRID and AP-42 (Result: 10.75 tons/OSD).
Energy Efficiency Reporting
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 10
ESL-single family (MWh/county)
ESL-multifamily (MWh/county)
PUC-SB7 (MWh/PCA)
PUC-SB5 (MWh/PCA)
SECO (MWh/PCA)
Wind-ERCOT (MWh/PCA)
Energy Savings Summary
2007 Annual eGrid (25%)
2007 OSD eGrid (25%)
NOx emissions reduction by
program
NOx emissions reduction by SIP
area
NOx emissions reduction by
county
NOx emissions reduction by
program
NOx emissions reduction by SIP
area
NOx emissions reduction by
county
ESL-single family (MWh/county)
ESL-multifamily (MWh/county)
PUC-SB7 (MWh/PCA)
PUC-SB5 (MWh/PCA)
SECO (MWh/PCA)
Wind-ERCOT (MWh/PCA)
Energy Savings Summary
2007 Annual eGrid (25%)
2007 OSD eGrid (25%)
NOx emissions reduction by
program
NOx emissions reduction by SIP
area
NOx emissions reduction by
county
NOx emissions reduction by
program
NOx emissions reduction by SIP
area
NOx emissions reduction by
county
In 2005 the TCEQ initiated a program to determine integrated NOx emissions savings (2013 and beyond) to allow for savings to be reported to the EPA
State Agencies included:– TEES/ESL, – PUC, – SECO, – ERCOT/Wind
Savings Integration allows:– Annual, OSD savings– By County– By SIP– By Program– Integration tool = Adjustable Discount, Degradation, T&D losses
Integrated NOx Savings
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 11
OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2005 Cum.2006
Cum.2007
Cum.2008
Cum.2009
Cum.2010
Cum.2011
Cum.2012
Cum.2013
Cum.2014
Cum.2015
Cum.2016
Cum.2017
Cum.2018
Cum.2019
Cum.2020
To
ns/
Ozo
ne
Sea
son
Day
ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal BuildingsFurnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily
Cumulative NOx emissions reductions calculated across state programs (2013)
Code Compliance (10.75 tons/day)Federal Buildings (0.81 tons/day)Furnace Pilot Lights (0.32
ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal BuildingsFurnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily